After spending generous amounts of alcohol to wash away the “visual” of a moment to moment time-line of bowel movements, let’s see what’s being said about the Texans. With 30 days until they put on the pads, there’s alot going foward and expectations for the JUGGERNAUT.
We have two different views of the impact Stevie Wonder has had in relation to Methapotamia’s “Every Coaches Dream” Chris Johnson. PFW discusses what each brings to their team but fail to mention that Slaton accomplished his seasonal results behind a new OC and scheme.
I used to read Paul Kuharsky and his AFC South blog for news that Pancakes (between filming and groping Anna Megan) and found this to be the last straw. This ass-hat, who resides in Nashville, formerly worked at the Nashville Tennessean newspaper, has a radio spot on Nashville station 104.5 “The Zone”, and pimps everything that the “flaming tacks” and Jeff Fisher’s stash whispers, now considers Stevie Wonder no.#3 back in our division. He argues the case for Chris Johnson vs. MJD on his blog.
The tradtional media has a problem with the “facts.” SI.com wants you to believe that Matt Schaub is in the top 50 of athlete’s salaries! Alan Burge helps breakdown the in’s and out’s of Teh Schaub’s incentives…and the real numbers.
Every year Forbes does this analysis to see who the highest paid players in sports are. This includes base salary (or earnings depending on the sport) and endorsements. I always find it fascinating to see who’s on the list. It really highlights some of the worst deals ever. For example, Steve Francis is 22nd on the list with just under $20M in salary and $500K for endorsements – which obviously leads to the question, “who the fuck is paying him half a million to endorse anything?” Stephon Marbury and Tracy McGrady both raked in over $21M in salary last year. With endorsements, that ranks them 17th and 15th respectively. This always makes me a little sad as I think about how hard I work trying to look busy while I blog, while these guys are earning tens of millions for doing nothing.
Anyway, none of this was too surprising until I noticed that Matt Schaub ranks 33rd on the list (third amongst NFLers behind only Peyton Manning and Tom Brady). Wow. I knew we were throwing him some jack, but I didn’t realize he was scoring $17M in salary/earnings. Of course, this accounts for the $10M we owe him as an option to extend his contract this year on top of his $7M base salary, so he likely won’t be on this list next year unless he plays out of his mind and hooks on a shitload of endorsements. I think we’d all be ok with that.
According to the In the Bullseye’s salary info (which is awesome, by the way), Schaub’s salary cap hit is just over $10M. A quick google shows that Schaub signed a $48 million contract back in March of 2007, but about $20M of that was to be paid in the first three years. So even though he shows up on the list, it doesn’t mean he’s way overpaid. I think his contract is reasonable for a solid starting QB in the NFL. Assuming we can keep him on the field, it’s safe to say that he fits that description.
Another interesting nugget in the list is that Antonio Smith shows up at 45 (7th amongst NFLers – after Schaub is Julius Peppers, Dwight Freeney, and Eli Manning). The contract we gave Antonio Smith paid him $15.5 up front, but his cap hit is $5.4 million. He has a $3M base salary, but must have gotten his bonus all up front. Smith’s salary if for $35M over five years, but it was also front loaded with bonuses. Like Schaub, I wouldn’t expect Smith to be on this list next year. If he pans out, I think he’ll be worth the money, but if he ends up another Anthony Weaver, that bonus is going to haunt our salary cap for years – assuming that is that there is a salary cap.
What does all this mean? Well, nothing really, but there’s not much to talk about these days. NFL salary cap counts the base salary each year, but the signing bonus is evenly distributed over the life of the contract. So even if Schaub and Smith got all his bonus money up front the cap hit will be the same.
What it really shows us is that the Texans are not afraid to throw money around. I bring this up because it lends a little credibility to the rumors that maybe, just maybe, Dunta and OD have turned down lucrative deals. I mean, why would they offer guys from outside the organization huge deals but be trying to cheap out on the homegrown talent? We obviously have no idea what’s going on with these negotiations (other than what OD puts on facebook), but the evidence continues to grow that these guys are really trying to go beyond the limits.
So, nobody should be shitting their pants when they see Matt and Antonio on the list, but it may give us some very slight insight into the current dealings.
Before I get started, let me get this out in the open: I’m not big on tradition. That’s not to say that I don’t like traditions, it just means that I don’t like doing something over and over just for the sake of tradition. In other words, if something is worth doing, then I’m ok with making it a tradition, whereas if something seems dumb, tradition is a stupid reason to keep it. The idea should be able to stand on its own merit.
The reason I want to start with that clarification is because many people use the concept of tradition as an excuse to avoid change. Generally these people are unable to form a logical counterpoint to the change, so they say, “it’s tradition”. This is often followed by knocking one’s self on the side of one’s head with the side of one’s hand.
With this in mind, I came across a very interesting article the other day with respect to the NFL’s overtime rules. Now, I’m not going to rehash the push for change except to say that roughly 60% of the time, the team winning the coin toss ends up winning the game, and roughly 47% of the time, the team winning the coin toss wins on the first possession. Naturally, the teams on the losing end feel as if they have not had an equal opportunity to with the game. The Texans were victim to this concept on Week 4 last season when we lost at Jacksonville in OT. The Texans scored on every possession since the middle of the first quarter (excluding a one play drive to end the first half) and the Jaguars scored on every possession since a punt with 12:13 remaining in the second quarter (yes, that’s after the famous punt without a punter fake which was in the middle of the first quarter). I remember thinking to myself that the team who won the coin toss would likely win the game, and, well, we all know how that turned out.
Every year, it seems that the competition committee decides to review the overtime rules, and every year they decide to keep it the same. It’s starting to get like the BCS’s insistence that the bowl system isn’t broken. Jeff Fischer, chairman of the committee, says:
There are so many other factors involved. We don’t want ties, the length of game, the injury issues that come up with extended overtime periods. There’s a lot of different options we’ve looked at and we’re going to continue to.
While not quite the tradition cop-out, it pretty much says, we don’t want change. It’s especially funny when they throw out the injury concern, but didn’t hesitate once when the option of adding games to the schedule came up (I bet if they could charge extra for overtime they’d come up with reams of stats suggesting that additional injuries are unlikely).
And this brings me back to the article. It’s not like the NFL doesn’t have a lot of options. The most common ones are to ensure that each team gets at least one possession or to use the NCAA version, but this article gets more creative. They discuss an option where they would
auction off possession of the ball in the natural currency of the game: field position. The team that was willing to begin closest to its own goal line would receive the privilege of possession.
They could use a variety of live or silent auction options, but it would be like bring the best aspects of poker into football. Besides, imagine the incredible arguments/discussions that would ensue after an overtime game.
Another option, and one which I like better, is the “cut and choose” option which has been used by third graders all over the world. One side decides which yard line OT starts at, but then the other coach decides who gets the ball first. Like the auction system, the game theory possibilities are endless and the coaches would get to decide whether their offense or defense gives them a better chance to win (moreso than they do now).
Ultimately though, the NFL would never choose something as out there as either of those options. The league is far too conservative and traditional to consider anything too extreme.
And that’s really the whole point of this post. I’m not actually a proponent of one of these solutions, but I am a proponent of change. If a bunch of random people on the interwebs can come up with a bunch of creative solutions, why does the NFL continue to argue that they cannot think of a single alternative? Instead, the league continues to stand by a system that rewards randomness over strategy.
And now, in place of more Owen Daniels discussion, an anecdote that I have titled “And how was your Tuesday?“
As Tuesdays go, the day had been pretty normal. I got to work about 8:30, blogged and played online until about 11:30, and then went to lunch with my buddy, Jeff. A couple lunchtime beers washed down the BBQ sandwich nicely. Basically, everything was just as I would have expected it to be.
Then, on the drive back to the office, I felt it. An uneasy feeling, way down in my stomach. Actually, I should back up slightly. I had really awful chili for lunch yesterday and, in lieu of food, I drank my dinner in the form of many, many rum-and-cokes. The morning brought three cups of coffee, but still no food. So that lunch was the first solid meal I’d had in about 24 hours.
Anyway…I’m driving back to the office, crossing over the always uninspiring Arkansas River, and I get that feeling. I assumed it was gas, but then it kept gurgling. “Self,” I says to myself, “that is not gas. That is a big ol’ shit. Hurry.” Thus began:
THE RACE AGAINST THE CLOCK
1:28pm–Crossing the river. I know, barring red lights, I can get to my office in seven minutes from this point. Seven minutes seems to be within the window of safety.
1:32pm–Red light.
1:33pm–Red light.
1:35pm–Realize it’s going to take longer than seven minutes. Re-evaluate. Decide that anything under 15 minutes will probably be safe. Wonder if it’s a bad sign when you know you are lying to yourself as you do it.
1:36pm–Pull into parking lot behind my office. (It bears mentioning here that, since I traded in my car for a truck, I can no longer park in my county-provided spot in the garage because my truck is too large. Which means I have to find a spot in the free lot behind the building or find a metered place on the street.)
1:37pm–No open places in the lot, pull back on to the street. Jesus loves me–there’s a place open on the street across from the lot.
1:38pm–Park truck, find three quarters in console, feed meter.
1:39pm–Small fart. Clinching ass cheeks tighter than Ed Norton in American History X, I shuffle across the street.
1:40pm–Fuck. Stairs. Step down the first one–large fart. Except this fart is kinda three-dimensional. And wet. Goddamnit.
1:41pm–Scurrying, tight-assed, down the hallway to the closest bathroom. I turn the corner and can see the bathroom door when my guts decide that 13 minutes, not 15, was my maximum allowable time. Proceed
to shit pants to unknown degree, despite clinched asscheeks.
1:42pm–Get into bathroom stall, undo belt and pants, and sit. Exact vengeance of Biblical proportions on the porcelain.
1:43pm–Look in boxers. Not good. Lie to self again, saying “You can just go commando, throw those away and no one will know.” Begin figuring out easiest way to remove pants in small public bathroom stall.
1:44pm–Realize that, apparently, my aim as I was bending over to sit on the toilet was not exactly sniper-quality. Notice shit on back of my pants. And back of my shoes. Begin working on new plan that involves getting back in my truck without (a) being seen by anyone I know and (b) getting shit in my truck.
1:45pm–Take off shoes and socks. Using roughly 657 paper towels, clean pants as best I can. Remove boxers. Discard. Put pants back on. Clean shoes in sink and put them back on, now wet and still slightly
smelling of shit.
1:46pm–Go out front of building, scurrying around to the back via a different parking lot, avoid all eye contact. Reach truck, curse Jesus, drive home to change clothes.
2:27pm–Back to work, email some buddies about the entire episode. Spend remainder of afternoon being informed that everyone in their respective offices is laughing.
With the welcomed return of the absentee owner of this blog and the dearth of any news, it allows the conversations of the innards of the Texans to progress. The many (well, few) writers and commenters of this site show knowledge, passion, and sound reasoning of their opinions (unless, Zima is your drink of “choice”).
We are debating the “rankings” from various “experts” on statistics that applied to last years progress. As fans and/or students of the game, we can jockey our view from what most of us have seen to a prediction of what’s to come this season. It’s a roll of the dice but, it all has merit.
Rod Woodson, Pro Bowler and HOF candidate, weights in on the “top” 5 edge rushing DE/outside LB [Note: Peyton, adjust your nuts, cause you'll be Mario's eunuch bitch! Oh, and BBS is still a coward.]
Some interesting points were brought up in the comments to yesterday’s post. Given the dearth of material to work with right now, we might as well turn them into new posts.
In response to the Owen Daniels contract tango, Eric correctly pointed out:
CBA rescinded 2009
Uncapped year 2010
Lockout 2011 (possibility)
No salary cap, no minimum, no max, 4 yr RFA to 6 yr, 2 transition tags vs. one, etc.
OD and Demeco want money now. OD & Dunta (DeMeco too!) can’t play for anyone else right now and OD could be hit with another RFA tender next season. If they want to sit out, no checky. Dunta could wait till the 8th game and still receive his $10 mil but, that would be counter productive for a player to come back, especially after his injury, and earn that jack!
All of that is very true and, from that standpoint at least, I can understand where OD is coming from. My problem, though, isn’t with Daniels wanting more bones; it’s with him turning bitch when the whole thing hit a snag. Because, let’s be real honest—whether the whole lack of guaranteed contracts is shitty, and it is—that’s the way it works right now. Which means that no team ever owes anyone a renegotation; some teams are willing to try and re-work a deal when all the parties agree that the player deserves it. To my mind, part of “deserves” includes knowing what needs to be said publicly and what needs to stay quiet. Read More..
Like the Tom Hanks character in the film “Castaway,” we are treated to this portion of the season to speaking to a ball to get us through. Though the ball has morphed (as all balls do) to an elongated version of “Mr. Wilson,” we are stuck on an island searching for answers and rescue.
However, you have the good ship USS Minnow here to 1) give you a fix of Texans football and 2) give hope to some under-priviledged kids that, quite frankly, need our help.
Joel Sanderson contacted this ‘blog’ about their initiative, with the help of the NFL, the Houston Texans, and locally Rice University, to help at risk kids. It’s a noble cause and one we should support! Because, it’s just right…
Speaking of overcoming adversity, Conner Barwin had a challenge and handicap from birth. One can only hope that he hears the anguish in Peyton’s voice as he (and Mario) buries his ass under the turf trays at Reliant (Jimmy Hoffa, anyone?). (Editor’s Note: And I, too, hope Peyton gets hurt. Eat it, BBS, you self-righteous hypocrite.)
…aaaaaaand—for the most part—I’m back. Work has mercifully slowed down to a marathon pace1 rather than the 100m sprint it was, so I should have time to get back in the swing of this blogging thing.
First off, I’d like to thank everyone who chipped in (and hopefully will continue to do so) while I was on hiatus. Well done, gentlemen.
Second, a quick thanks to Lone Spot (Josh) for lunch at Ninfa’s two weekends back. Also, I apparently managed to not offend his wife, despite a conversation about this post2 and this post, so she gets bonus cool points. (Yes, we talked not only about blogging, but about specific posts. Shut up.)
Moving on to stuff that matters, all of which has already been covered by other people here and elsewhere:
Owen Daniels. I’ve yet to chime in on the Owen Daniels thing, partly because I’m not 100% sure what I think of it. On the one hand, I tend to side with the player in most NFL contract disputes just because of the overall inherent unfairness of the lack of guaranteed contracts. On the other, though, I really hate it when players act like cunts. And there’s not a whole lot cuntier than whining on your Facebook page about how the team’s offer is unfair when they just offered to make you the second-highest paid TE in the fucking game (assuming we can trust Pancakes’ version).
So, as I pondered the OD thing, I remembered that I started this post WAY back before the draft and never finished it (point 4 was never totally fleshed out), so I’m going to post it here in blockquote form because I can:
The editors of this site apologize for the typo in the above headline. Where it says “naked in Playgirl’s ‘Men of Blogging’ issue,” it should actually read “on 1560 The Game at noon today.” We are sorry for any confusion or spontaneous impotence the incorrect headline might have caused.
Link. So, you know, listen. And call in if you are bored. But definitely listen. Because, honestly, what the fuck else do you have to do? Exactly.
(Also, I’m saying it’s 15:1 that BFD works “Filipino Tranny Porn” into the conversation and 3:1 for “Methopotamia”. “Takes a shot at Matt” was even money before I posted that picture to the left; now it’s off the board and I only hope he doesn’t mention “cock photography”.
Finally, and having nothing to do with the rest of this post, I’m posting something today. No, really. Stop looking at me like that, papabear.
If this site is known for three things, it’s football, fake conversations with real people, and, most importantly, filipino tranny porn. With that, I present….some filipino tranny Michael Jackson porn:
I think we should all congratulate WF4F on his fantastic screen debut as a Michael Jackson’s scared date. Well played.
With the end of most teams’ OTAs, now comes the fun part! Listening to the crickets and hearing the “talking heads” make their annual (anal?) predictions for the 2009 season. The “Ms. Cleo’s” of the NFL world once again have the Texans as the “surprise” team going into the season! Well, a blind squirrel will find its own nutz (or some such shit) when you claim any team a “surprise” team and then at the end it becomes fact. Or you can be like Houston’s own Richtard Justice and base your opinion on how may “favors” a S & C coach will give you on his training bed and make your predictions on a hourly basis.
The thing that keeps coming to my small mind in all of the talks of contracts are the NFL owners opting out of the last 2 years of the CBA and what impact it will have on current contracts and those after the season. Keith Weiland at ItB.com talks about OD’s contract and the rock and a hard place situation he’s in.
Florio at PFT has also written on the current bargaining of contracts and the upcoming/current impact to the player’s negotiations for next year and, possibly, beyond.
Remember that outstanding draft we had in 2006? Most of that draft class signed 4 year contracts, and when the “big” payday was supposed to hit or be negotiated in year 3 for those who made the grade? Well, with the uncertainty of any renewal of the “former” CBA (for 2010) and the possibility of a lockout in 2011, teams are hedging their bets and are (I assume?) looking at the “uncapped” year (2010) and the bottom line.
Anthony Hill. I do so hate the Anthony Hill pick, a pick I believe was made redundant with the James Casey pick immediately afterward. The “reason” for the pick was because of our red-zone performance last year. I’ve compiled some stats, and I’m going to unfold them before you…and me. I wish I could “unfold” her. Jeebus.
First, a couple of disclaimers. I went through every play-by-play over the course of 2008, and my totals matched those on NFL.com (red zone efficiency). Totals were pulled from usatoday.com, and there are discrepancies. For example, I have the Texans with 26 TDs in the red-zone while usatoday.com has 28. I find this odd as I reconciled every game against the box on nfl.com. In other words, something is off somewhere, but I do not know where. In addition, I made notes on every red-zone performance, and, again, my numbers reconcile properly. With the possibility of numbers problems proclaimed, let’s move on.
The average NFL team scored touchdowns on 53% of its red-zone possessions while the Texans were successful only 44% of the time. The Texans were dead-on league average with the number of field goals converted in the red-zone, which means what I called our FAIL rate was higher than the league…all based on our inability to convert red-zone opportunities into touchdowns (not field goals).
In total, we failed in the red-zone 13 times. Of the 13 failures, here’s how it breaks down:
Inability to convert 4th downs: 3 times, twice against the BE-SFs in our first meeting.
Matt Schaub interceptions: 2
Matt Schaub fumbles: 1
Rosy Rosenfels interceptions: 2
Against Cleveland, we knelt on the ball in the red-zone to close out the game
FG snap FAIL against Jacksonville
Kris Brown actually missed a FG against the BE-SFs in the second meeting
Steve Slaton fumbled
Owen Daniels fumbled
That breaks down to an amazing seven turnovers in the red-zone, and the four interceptions were the second most to the 49ers’ five. To top it off, that 13 marks the highest number of FAILs in the league, two ahead of anybody else and 10 in front of the leaders. Looking at the other FAILs, on three occasions we FAILed on 4th down with the other one coming against the Raiders. The Cleveland scenario doesn’t really count, and there was the bad snap/handle during the Jaguars MNF match-up.
In the QB comparison, a couple of aspects seem to jump out. First, Rosy was worse at converting red-zone chances into touchdowns with an 8:8 ratio of FGs to TDs. Schaub, on the other hand, converted 18 chances into TDs versus 12 FGs. The FAIL rate for the two was roughly the same (20% for Rosy and 23% for Schaub), though Schaub was hit especially hard by fumbles in the Green Bay game (Slaton and Daniels).
Conclusions? To be honest, I can’t figure out a way to post the raw data, so it’s kinda hard for you, my faithful readers like Shake who need a poke to the eye, to see what I’m seeing. However, a few things jump out:
Hold onto the fucking ball. Our turnovers alone put us at league average for FAILs, giving us no wiggle room for as much as a missed field goal. Throw in the bad snap, and that’s eight FAILs, just three off the second worst team in the league. We had more chances than the average team, though.
Poor conversion. Fact is, we neither ran nor threw the ball well in the red-zone. My notes are littered with things like “two short runs and an incompletion” and “three incompletions.” Throw in a couple of sacks, penalties (Chester Pitts), and…OK, to be honest, basic Rosy incompetence, we simply did not convert.
Avoid “bad games.” Between our first meeting with the BE-SFs and Minnesota, that’s five of our FAILs.
Play “easier” teams. Seven of our games came against the top seven teams in holding down opposition red-zone scoring opportunities: Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Indy (x2) were the top three in the category, with Minny and BE-SFs close behind. Sure, there’s a chicken and the egg kind of thing here, but we were just one of 16 games. We played the toughest of teams, and it showed.
Fuck Rosy. He could not get the job done in the red-zone, and he hurt us…badly and consistently. Oops, he’s gone.
We were the fourth worst in the league at stopping the opposition from scoring TDs in the red-zone. We need to get our defensive shit together. And, yes, our failure defensively impacts us offensively.
How does this influence my thoughts on the Anthony Hill pick? If anything, I hate the pick more. I still fail to see how a blocking TE will help us in the red-zone. We went every rushing direction, and we sucked in every way but going backwards (where we kicked ass!). As sucky as we were offensively, and we were sucky, we were far worse defensively. But once you take away the mass of turnovers, we’re about league average. Dumping Rosy is an added bonus. I believe our red-zone failures were self-inflicted as much as anything else.
Now, there is the argument (I believe beef first brought it up) that our personnel dictated our scheme. To a large extent, this must be true. But this does not mean so many turnovers. I do not believe additional blocking help off the end is our answer as much as it’s not giving the ball away.
I’m of the opinion, as dedicated sports fans, we’re allowed to have a lot of favorite players. There’s always the “Love him because he hits like Chris Brown talking to Rihanna” guy (Vonta), the “Plucky and underrated” guy (Walter), and the “This guy might actually be Christ returned” guy (Mario). But the best of these might be the player you love because he’s just fucking weird. The Wizards may have the ultimate of these with the madness that is Agent Zero (helps he’s a fantastic player). But I’m starting to think we have our own very special player in David Anderson. What we witness with that TD celebration… well it was just the tip of the iceberg.
I suggest you all go watch David’s interview on Eric Winston’s blog, where he plays the part of Ricky Hatton. No. Really.
Today was a rather sports centric day — an abnormality in the Vega household as my fiancee has little interest in sports. We bought her some snow skis (great deals this time of year by the way), I watched some US Open, we watched the Astros game (great game!), and we had some football discussion. If I get laid tonight, it may rank as the best day ever.
Anyway, the reason football was in the discussion is because I made mention of the fact that if the Texans won the Super Bowl, it may have a detrimental effect on our relationship. I would be an emotional mess before the game, a loud fan during the game, and an obnoxious asshole afterwards. It would be the greatest moment of my sports rooting life, but potentially the worst moment of her married life.
So then she asks a simple question: are you getting a good return on the emotional investment you’re putting into these teams?
My instinctive answer is an unequivalent yes, but the booze in me made me think about it a little further. Stupid booze. I need a drink.
Thinking about life as a Houston sports fan is a little painful. The Buffalo game. The moving of the Oilers from Houston to Tennessee. The fact that they went to the Super Bowl just two years later (thank God they lost). The drafting of David Carr. And that’s just football. I could also throw in the 1986 NLCS, Walt Weiss, and Albert Fucking Pujols.
Shit, we don’t even get respected by the MSM for being depressing.
So what fucking return have we really had on that investment? The 94 and 95 Rockets? Yeah, I dug that too, but it’s the far inferior NBA and it was fourteen fucking years ago (sorry Dave, but it’s true).
I was born in 1978. If I count the four major sports (I’m a Panthers fan in hockey… yeah, I’m the one), I’ve experienced 108 seasons of sport and only two championships (considering the Panthers started in ‘94). That means that more than 98% of the seasons I’ve followed have ended in heartbreak. And that doesn’t include the fact that I went to Northwestern University who hasn’t won a bowl game since three years before my dad was born.
Fuck. That’s some depressing shit right there.
I think the answer really comes down to the Shawshank Redemption. You know, when Andy finally breaks out and gives that speil about “hope”. I dare anyone to listen to that and not feel inspired.
And that’s what it fucking comes down to. Yankee fans and Lakers fans and Cowboy fans may have enjoyed more success in their lives, but I guarantee you this: when our day comes, it will be more meaningful than any day those assholes have ever experienced. Those cocksuckers may talk about the number of championships they’ve had, but you and I both know that the majority of those fuckers just hopped on the bandwangon for a cheap high.
Our day will come, my friends. It will be real. Dumb fuckers will jump on our bandwagon, but we were all here when the wheels were broken and it was drawn by a bunch of drunk donkeys with lame legs.
To quote Tyler Durden, “[our] breakfast will taste better than any meal [they] have ever tasted.”
For the first time in history, we are a popular break out pick. Bill Simmons has already declared us the popsicle team, as in “let’s not start sucking each other’s dicks just yet.” But if we’re going to quote movies, I’d rather go back to Shawshank.
“Remember boys, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.”
So have I gotten a good return on this investment? Not yet. But I’m holding on to this stock.
The difference is that Rex Grossman is a better QB than Quinn Gray, and probably better than Dan Orlovsky, too. I think Grossman is no worse than Rosenfels, and his contract is a real value. Orlovsky is the unknown quantity, and we overpaid for him.
Now, I’m not going to fisk this comment as it’s not entirely outrageous (except for the lack of evidence to stand behind the statement), but it may respresent a certain level of CW (conventional wisdom) that permeates standard name-recognition group-think. So let’s break this down a bit.
Rex Grossman – Age: 29 – Career QB Rating: 70.2.
Chicago Bears Pass Protection Rankings aka Sack Rank (courtesy Football Outsiders):
2008 – 24th
2007 – 18th
2006 – 5th
2005 – 20th
2006 was obviously Grossman’s career year with over half of his total career attempts coming in 2006. But, of course, the Sex Cannon “led” his team to the Super Bowl, based, I guess, on his whopping 73.9 QB rating. This represented his second highest seasonal QB rating, but considering it’s only one of two season he had over 100 attempts, it’s the most meaningful. Of course, to make this discussion more meaningful, we’d have to interject that the Bears defense was ranked the second best in 2006.
Based on performance? Sure. How about wins? Because Grossman wins that 19 to zero. Isn’t the internet great? I actually feel like I’m talking to a big, fat drunk.
Also, notice I said “probably” better? The truth is we don’t know who’s better. I like both of these guys … they’re Texans now.
Geez, you guys are turning me into something I never thought I’d be a year ago … a Rex Grossman apologist.
So…if I understand this argument correctly, ***team*** wins are the greatest measure of a QB. Therefore, I guess, Trent Dilfer is one of the greatest QBs of all time? Am I getting this right?
Believe it or not, and I want to stress this, I am not making fun of the person who made these comments. In reality, these are comments your average TV color commentator would make without hesitation. QBs often receive both too much credit and too much blame for a team’s performance. Yes, QB is an important position on the field, but the last time I checked, football was a team game.
Getting back to Grossman, it’s strikingly obvious from the numbers that Grossman’s lone successful year consisted of an above-average offensive line and some outstanding defensive work. With lesser offensive lines, though not necessarily completely execrable, Sexy Rexy couldn’t hold down a full time job. Let’s look at Orlovsky.
Dan Orlovsky – Age: 26 – QB Rating: 71.3.
Detroit Lions Pass Protection Ranking for 2008: 31st.
In fact, in no meaningful way is Rex Grossman statistically superior to Dan Orlovsky…except for yards/attempt. Oddly, Cannon’s “Fuck it, we’re going deep” mantra is strangely absent from statistical impact.
Orlovsky “led” a historically bad team in Detroit, a team that will live in a Matt Millen-esque infamy. Yet, Orlovsky really wasn’t bad, including a 1:1 INT/TD ratio, which is also superior to Grossman’s career numbers.
Comparing the two, Orlovsky is three years younger, four inches taller, and considered to have the better arm. In addition, he has performed better *statistically* than has Grossman behind an inferior offensive line. This is why Orlovsky gets a three-year deal while Grossman signs for league veteran minimum. It’s also why the Orlovsky signing is, so far, my favorite off-season move (including the draft).
Getting back to what really is my original point: was the commenter wrong to say what he/she said? The answer, I would argue, is no. It was simply a recitation of the standard CW that often occurs in football. An 0-17 is not only the indictment of a team but especially the QB. However, even a quick glimpse behind the numbers tells a completely different story. Plus, Rex Grossman was in a Super Bowl! I’ve heard his name! He must be teh aw3some!
But there’s one more aspect I have yet to discuss. After Matt Schaub spent part of 2007 injured, and Rosy Rosenfels was extremely-obviously-100% coming off a career year at 28 years old, Rosenfels seemed to expect to have the starting gig. In retrospect, especially, this was asinine. But there were a huge number of people buying into this wad of bullshit. Orlovsky understands being a back-up is his primary role. However, and this is very much unlike Rosenfels, I have a level of confidence that, if needed, Orlovsky will give us only slightly below-average snaps. For a backup QB, that’s pretty powerful. Sage’s 2007 was a fluke in every fucking respect, and it was obvious. He proved it in 2008.
I predict that Rex will be cut in order to help out a team with pre-season injuries. I do not believe the Texans will carry a 3rd QB this year. TPL may be dead-on with management’s disappointment in Alex Brink, but he’s just practice squad fodder, regardless. Rex Grossman is nothing more than a body of pre-season, and setting expectations any higher would be a FAIL.
Ahh… the price of being competitive. A few years ago, nobody held out on our little squad of footballers because few on the team were good enough to merit doing so. Now that we have some stud players, Pro Bowlers at that, we have to deal with that curse of youthful talent — the contract holdout (cue scary music here).
The contract holdout is one of those situations where I hate it when it happens, but I can really see both sides of it. On one hand, you have a player who signed a contract and should be held to it. On the other hand, you have a player in a profession with a very limited life span where this is his only real bargaining chip.
Still, while Kubiak and the players can say that it’s not a distraction, that’s really a line of bullshit. Don’t tell me that Schaub is getting the same practice throwing to a rookie that he would throwing to a Pro Bowl tight end. That counts as a distraction.
Clearly, it’s in everybody’s best interest to get these negotiations completed, but the situations of Dunta, OD, and DeMeco are all very different. All the bottles may say scotch, but there’s a big difference between a 15 year Glenfiddich and a plastic bottle of White Horse.
So let’s look at each of these situations individually.
DeMeco Ryans: DeMeco’s in an interesting position in that he’s one of the players that will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of next season if there’s a new collective bargaining agreement in place (assuming they keep the same UFA rules), but not for another two years if no agreement is reached. Under normal circumstances, I’m sure he would still be pushing for a contract extension, but with the uncertainty about the future, this likely makes it more pressing.
While Mario has been the face of the defense on a national stage, Texans’ fans identify DeMeco as the real leader of that unit. His approach was to hold out for a brief while and then say, “fuck it” and show up. While linebackers are easier to find than, say, a good corner, elite linebackers don’t exactly grow on trees.
What concerns me a little more, however, are these quotes from DeMeco to Paul Kuharsky:
“It’s not so much about me, Owen, Dunta. It’s about setting a standard that the league has thrived on: That guys who go out and play and perform well, who outperform their contracts, they get new deals, they get taken care of. But we haven’t seen that taking place here with the Texans. I haven’t seen one guy rewarded from within.
“…Owen and myself have both been to the Pro Bowl, Dunta was one of the top rookies when he came in. These are guys who have gone on and gotten the accolade from outside the organization, but have not been rewarded from within the organization.”
“It’ll take care of itself. I feel like I’ve done what I’ve had to do and that’s go out and play. That’s’ the only thing I can control. I can’t make them write the check, they have to want to do it.”
“I still don’t think that looks right for the team, for the younger guys that come out. They’ll say, ‘Damn, well we go out, make the Pro Bowl, did what we have to do and they still didn’t reward Owen or DeMeco, so why should we think we’re going to be rewarded.”
“It’ll be good to get a new deal, but I’m not begging for one.”
Fuck. I tell you what though, either DeMeco’s just being an honest guy, or he’s a shrewd motherfucker, and I think it’s the latter. I mean, I don’t really buy the fact that he doesn’t care about a new deal but is really doing this for the kids. Yeah, I want a raise at my job not because I could use the cash, but because I want the young guys to see that if you work hard you can be rewarded. Still though, of the three, DeMeco has done the most to deserve a new deal and of the three, this is the one that absolutely HAS to get done. DeMan has the leverage in the fact that he said, “I’m pissed, but I’m here. Now it’s your turn.” He’s got the public backing. Despite Smithiak’s success in the draft, their reputation in this town will be greatly affected by what happens here.
Owen Daniels: OD is in the same situation as DeMeco with respect to the collective bargaining agreement. The difference, however, is that the team just drafted two younguns who play his position, he’s not exactly the DeMeco of tight ends, and he’s currently trying to play hardball by holding out.
OD was in the Pro Bowl as an alternate, but honestly, that doesn’t mean shit. Hell, Vince Young has been to a Pro Bowl. But that really says more about my opinion of the Pro Bowl than it does on OD. OD should have earned a starting spot on the Pro Bowl on his own merit. Still, if we were to list the most valuable Texans, which in my mind are DeMeco, Mario, Andre, Schaub, Winston, and OD (Slaton needs another solid year before I put him on this list), I would argue that OD is the most replaceable.
There have been rumors that OD was offered a contract that would have made him the second highest paid TE, but OD and his agent basically said that was the Chron making shit up again. Hold on… I’ll wait while the shock wears off.
Here is a quote from OD’s facebook page (h/t Eric):
I’m still hopeful we can get a long term deal done. I’m a reasonable person and will absolutely accept a fair deal. The monetary value of the deal means less to me than the fairness of it. (i.e. to me a te deal that is two years old is no longer relevant.)
Owen and his agents have been in talks with the Texans for a little bit of time and talks have come to a standstill, thus Owen has become impatient (and rightly so) with the gamesmanship being played.
That’s less positive than I’d like to see. It sounds to me like the negotiations are revolving around the length and guaranteed money. As far as who has leverage, I think Owen is hurting himself a little bit with the holdout (which costs him a cool 10 Gs each day) but both sided seem cautiously optimistic that something can get done. It’s not as critical as DeMeco, but I’d like to see it happen soon.
Dunta Robinson. This is the one that I could see dragging out for a long, long time. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me too much if we’ve seen the last of Dunta in a Texans uni. Apparently on 610 the other day it was mentioned that Dunta was willing to sit out until week 10 when his tender becomes guaranteed. That would be fucking retarded.
But first let’s recap. In the midst of his best season yet, Dunta gets his leg all fucked up. He comes back last year, clearly a step slow. In the offseason, he says that he doesn’t want to be franchised. He, reportedly, turns down a huge deal and gets franchised anyway. Then he gets super pissed off and begins his holdout.
This clearly seems to be the case where the majority of us are less sympathetic. My feelings are outlined here. It seems odd though, that the person with the lowest amount of negotiating leverage is the dude who is playing the hardest ball. Lets assume that Dunta sits out until week 10. There’s NO FUCKING WAY that he just jumps back in at that point and is a total badass what with a new defensive scheme and new DC in place — assuming he were to get playing time, that is. So does he really think that next offseason some GM (like, say, our GM) would really think, “hey, that guy had a really good half season three years ago before he tore up his leg and then sat out a season. Let me give him $30 mil.”
My guess here is that Rick Smith is calling his bluff. Dunta will either sign a deal or the tender no later than the middle of training camp. He can’t afford to not play like a beast this year, let alone skip the season.
So there it is. DeMeco is a smoove mothafucka and will get paid, OD is pushing back and will likely get paid, and Dunta doesn’t have much to stand on and is gonna have to crawl on back. I guess you didn’t need 1,500 words for me to tell you that.
But let me spend a few more words going over the few other things that scare me about this whole deal:
1. Rick Smith may be trying to be more of a hardass than he needs to be, just to send a message. Don’t be a showman, dude. Just get it done.
2. Stevie Wonder is taking notes. Texans’ bloggifiers around the interwebs were already speculating that he might hold out prior to this season.
3. We continue to follow the “Denver South” trend and dudes start demanding to be traded. I realize that we’re a long way away from that, but three months ago, I never thought that we’d have Dunta, OD, and DeMeco holding out at various points.
On an unrelated note, as far as the title goes, I saw Cool Hand Luke for the first time the other day and was sorely disappointed. There were way too many gay overtones and busting up parking meters is the least cool crime in Hollywood history.
If this here blog took the time to create a douchebag system of sorts, Peter King would obviously be Douchebag in Eternal Perpetuity. Or something like that. Of course, he earned it with his long-time fellating of that great Drama Queen, Brett Favre. But that’s not the point today. The point is this:
I think the Rex Grossman signing in Houston says one thing to me: The honeymoon’s over for Dan Orlovsky as the walk-in, no-doubt backup to Matt Schaub.
First of all, what the fuck does this even mean? The honeymoon is over for a backup QB? What?
Secondly, and perhaps it’s just me, but this seems to be implying that Grossman is going to overtake Orlovsky as the backup. Can someone please tell me how? The Texans could’ve had Sexy Rexy months ago, instead opting to commit three years to Orlovsky. Never mind the fact that no team has shown meaningful interest in the Sex Cannon since he became a free agent. And, of course, let’s ignore the fact that Orlovky’s QB rating last year – his first as a starter and on an 0-16 team, was superior to Rex’s over the past two years. And let’s completely forget Orlovsky is three years younger than the Cannon.
Never mind that it’s only logical to have three to four QBs for the pre-season, a time when it’s likely Matt Schaub’s snaps will be limited after the first couple of weeks Finally, if there’s one thing Kubiak learned last year, it’s that a shitty back-up will lose games for you…as if on purpose, it seemed.
Because, according to Peter King, Orlovsky’s in some deep shit.
However, if Pancakes is correct, it looks like OD is going the Dunta Robinson route of negotiation, evidently turning down a contract that would’ve made him the second highest paid TE. To be honest, that’s quite a bit of dough for OD, especially considering, as Steph mentioned, how much the system works to his advantage.
If it takes more than $6.9MM to tie-up OD, I admit to being with Smithiak on this one. That’s a shit-load of money for a very good, but not necessarily elite, TE.
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And now, in place of more Owen Daniels discussion, an anecdote that I have titled “And how was your Tuesday?“
Some interesting points were brought up in the comments to 
…aaaaaaand—for the most part—I’m back. Work has mercifully slowed down to a marathon pace1 rather than the 100m sprint it was, so I should have time to get back in the swing of this blogging thing.
The editors of this site apologize for the typo in the above headline. Where it says “naked in Playgirl’s ‘Men of Blogging’ issue,” it should actually read “on 1560 The Game at noon today.” We are sorry for any confusion or spontaneous impotence the incorrect headline might have caused.
I’m of the opinion, as dedicated sports fans, we’re allowed to have a lot of favorite players. There’s always the “Love him because he hits like Chris Brown talking to Rihanna” guy (Vonta), the “Plucky and underrated” guy (Walter), and the “This guy might actually be Christ returned” guy (Mario). But the best of these might be the player you love because he’s just fucking weird. The Wizards may have the ultimate of these with the madness that is Agent Zero (helps he’s a fantastic player). But I’m starting to think we have our own very special player in David Anderson. What we witness with that TD celebration… well it was just the tip of the iceberg.
