DGDB&D: a Texans blog.

Dunta Robinson provokes email flurry

May 29, 2007 Batman, Demarcus Faggins sucks, Dunta Robinson, KC Joyner, Prime Time, Secondary issues are primary

One of the highlights of writing this blog for the past month has been emailing with other bloggers and even some national sportswriters. I have been shocked, really, at how accessible Matt Mosely and KC Joyner of ESPN have been (not to mention Will Leitch of Deadspin and most of the people at Chron.com) to a goof-ball blogger who writes about the Houston freakin’ Texans.

So, when my buddy Sid suggested a while back that I should do a breakdown of Dunta Robinson to see if he was as good as we all believe him to be, I thought someone like The Football Scientist, KC Joyner might have some good insight.

First, though, I wanted to see what the raw numbers looked like:

Not bad. I mean, he’s not Champ Bailey, but who is?¹ Still, given the drop off from 2004 to 2005/2006, it seemed like the numbers did not tell the whole story. So, I emailed Joyner.

I was kicking around the idea of breaking down Dunta Robinson in comparison to the elite corners and, possibly, figuring out how much the lack of a good CB2, SS, and FS hurts Dunta. Then, I was reading your latest column regarding corners, and I wondered if I could get your take? Overall, where would you rank Dunta among other corners? Top 15? Also, is it possible that, given even a decent supporting cast in the secondary, Dunta could actually turn in a better YPA than he has thus far?

Somewhat surprisingly, KC replied with a good bit of detail.

Dunta had one of his better years this past season (7.4 YPA) and yet teams still targeted him quite often despite the presence of what would seem like more appealing target options. Robinson does often cover the other team’s best WR and he most certainly isn’t a shutdown corner, so that’s a lot of the reason he is targeted. In previous years Robinson has been dreadful in coverage and I think that accounts for more of his targeting than anything. The lack of good safety play may hurt him some on deep passes and improvements back there could help his YPA some.

Interesting. This seems to fly in the face of what we (meaning both Texans fans and random talking heads) believe about DR. When you look at his rookie numbers, he seems to stack up against some of the better CBs out there, but, to hear Joyner tell it, those rookie numbers belie what was poor overall play. I followed-up with KC.

[Following your column and reply,] I had [some] suspicions about Dunta, mainly because being the best DB on the Texans is like being the prettiest leper in the colony. I am happy with the Okoye draft pick,[...] but there is no doubt that 2008’s first rounder will almost have to be a DB.

You say that he’s been dreadful in coverage over the past years, but he did have pretty good overall stats in 2004. Did those cover up some mediocre metrics?

Joyner, ever patient with the needy blogger, clarified.

I’ve been on numerous Texans players bandwagons the past few years (I honestly thought Carr was going to be the next great NFL QB) but Robinson’s bandwagon is one I’ve not been on. To give you an idea of some of my earlier thoughts on him, check out my comment from Scientific Football 2005:

I was rather surprised to see the Dunta Robinson fan club develop so strongly by the end of last season. [...] My early impressions of him were summed up thusly: “Robinson is the rookie I’ve been telling you about all season, and this week should be another chapter in Robinson’s book ‘Toast 2: The Second Coming of Elvis Patterson’.” As it turned out he wasn’t nearly that bad, but he wasn’t great, either. He had some decent performances, but he never really shut anybody down.

Just take a look at his rankings. He’s tied for 68th in completion percentage and 63rd in tight/good coverage percentage. He was 61st in deep completion percentage and 74th in short completion percentage. [...]

The key to all of this is his yards per attempt. Despite his lackluster completion percentage rates, he still ranked tied for 17th in yards per attempt. The reason this number is so low is that Robinson didn’t allow receivers to get much on short passes. He allowed 52 short completions but only on 13 of those did the receiver end up getting more than 10 yards. [...] He may give you room to throw under him but he’s going to tackle you quickly.

[...] He wasn’t a top-notch CB last year, but he would’ve won the most improved in-season award if there were one.

I don’t think he was as good last year as people made him out to be, but I think he has a very good chance of being that good this year. His early career popularity may bring his Pro Bowl berth a year earlier than usual, but I don’t think it’ll be quite this early.

His performances over the past two years have probably been better than his year one performance, so that’s in his favor. I’m still probably down on him in part because a lot of the TV talking heads keep saying how great he is and he simply isn’t (emphasis added).

That bolded line jumped out at me (which is why I bolded it, fool!); Dunta has actually played better the last two seasons despite a drop off in INTs, tackles, sacks, and passes defended. This is as counterintuitive as it gets, but I trust KC’s evaluation. Mainly because I have nothing to suggest that he is incorrect. I suppose one could argue that his job is INTs and PDs and, thus, 2004 was the better year. I think that is overly simplistic, though, and ignores way too many variables. So, unless I see something to contradict Joyner, I’m going to stick with his evaluation.

So, what does this tell us? Well, for one thing, we might only be looking at Robinson as a top-flight CB because he’s being compared against some guys who are awful. Much the same way Ahman Green might look like Earl Campbell to us at times this season.

For another thing, it suggests–at least to me–that the Texans need a very good safety as much as (or more) than they need a second CB. I mean, sure, they need a CB2 no doubt. But, seeing as how a dramatic improvement at safety (either one) would make Dunta and the other CB better, that might be the way to go. Otherwise, short of drafting the second coming of Prime Time, the glaring need at safety is going to make any CB we draft less valuable.²

Finally, just as a note to Texans fans, Joyner says “I hope you do remind your readers that I’m not a Texans-basher.”

Duly noted, KC. And many thanks.

¹ Other than Champ Bailey, of course.
² Less valuable when compared with his own abilities, not less valuable than Demarcus Faggins.