DGDB&D: a Texans blog.

Opening Salvo

Jan 2, 2008 2007 Season, 2008 Season, Barbaro is dead, Batman, Black Salaami, Boulware, DeMeco Ryans, Demarcus Faggins sucks, Dunta Robinson, Free Agency, I'm not a doctor, Mark Bruener, Matt Turk rules, Nnamdi Asomugha, Posts that list too many players, Roster, Secondary issues are primary, Sign Andre Davis now, Tremendous Busts

Certain discussions in football are incredibly dependent upon context. Take, for instance, “who is the greatest player of all time?” Without contextualizing the question, we can have different answers and all might be correct. If you are asking “who was the most dominant in his era,” the near-universal answer is Jim Brown. If you are factoring in which player had the biggest drop-off in talent between himself and the second-best player at his position, Lawrence Taylor is a popular answer. And if you are considering longevity coupled with a high level of performance, a case can be made for Larry Allen, Emmitt Smith, or even Brett Favre if a person is so inclined.

Discussing the draft is no different. Before we can have any sort of serious discussion regarding our needs (both perceived and real) and how the draft can meet them, we have to answer the following:

• What is the 2008 contribution from Dunta Robinson likely to be?
• What is the 2008 contribution from Charles Spencer likely to be?
• Is Travis Johnson going to be on the 2008 Texans?
• Which of our free agents are going to be re-signed?
• Which free agents from other teams are we looking at?
• Which role players/reserves from this year played well enough to challenge for an expanded role next year?
• Which starters played poorly enough to “earn” their outright releases?

Let’s try to tackle these. Everything from here is on is my best guess, so feel free to correct/mock/taunt me in the comments.

1. What is the 2008 contribution from Dunta Robinson likely to be?

The facts: According to this article (hat tip to reader Eric, who keeps me abreast of stuff almost daily), Dunta is taking rehab seriously and is progressing well.

“I know myself, and I know what I will do to get back on the field,” [Dunta said].

Unless you enjoy being wrong, don’t doubt him.

He might be moving slowly with a limp [as of now], but at some point next season, No. 23 will throw his body around Reliant Stadium, making hard-hit highlights.

***

The most likely scenario calls for Robinson, 25, to be placed on the physically unable to perform list entering camp. If he isn’t ready at the start of the season, he would not be eligible to be activated until after the sixth game.

Though he has been told he is ahead of schedule in the rehab, he smartly realizes to rush would be foolish.

Really bad grammar aside, no one is currently ruling out the possibility that he will be back on opening day. Now, given the severity of the injury–see video here–it might be a little much to expect a September return, but what if he is ready to go by October? With Dunta and Fred Bennett, it would make very little sense to draft a CB at 18. (This is doubly true when you consider that this draft isn’t exactly rife with big name cornerback talent–not only would be drafting redundantly, but you would be reaching to do it.)

One strange sub-question to this is what if Dunta does return as planned in 2008, but is not as fast as he was prior to the injury? Because I know we don’t want to hear it right now, but there is no guarantee that he can rehab his speed back to what it was (or even what it needs to be to be a top corner). If this happens, as a couple people said shortly after he was hurt, it might just make sense to pencil Dunta in as a free safety when he returns, allowing him to play the ball and still knock the piss out of people, but without expecting him to also turn and run with the Reggie Waynes of the world. In such a scenario, obviously that second corner position is an issue. I’m just not sure it is an issue to address via the draft.

Predicted answer to the question: I think Dunta returns in mid-October and, by November, is in “playing shape.” He might be slightly slowed, but any conversion of him to safety would be in 2009 at the earliest.

2. What is the 2008 contribution from Charles Spencer likely to be?

The Facts: If it seems like a really loooooong time since Spencer got hurt, you are not imagining things. He had surgery on the broken leg on September 18, 2006, meaning that 103 weeks will have passed between that date and opening day 2008. Now, of course, the good news is that there was some talk and hope going into 2007 Camp that Spencer would play at some point this past year. While that didn’t happen (obviously), the team website reports that Barbaro is expected to participate in the team’s offseason conditioning program.

To have been cleared for such workouts, Spencer’s rehab would have to be completed to his personal physician’s satisfaction and he would have to have been evaluated by the team doctor. So, apparently, 2 out of 2 medical professionals agree that Spencer is healthy enough for NFL workouts. That’s a start. Much like with Dunta, however, there is no way of knowing short of seeing Spencer play whether he was able to rehab to the level of an NFL left tackle.

Also similar to the Dunta situation, if Spencer does not have the quickness and explosiveness needed to take on professional defensive ends, the team is not without options. Fred Weary is a free agent and Chester Pitts was less than stellar for much of the year, so moving Spencer to a guard spot is certainly a possibility. Given his bulk and athleticism (6-5, 350 compared to 6-4, 307 for Weary and 6-2, 320 for Pitts), lining him up beside Eric Winston or a real–read: not Ephraim Salaam–left tackle would certainly be an asset to our running game (unless it is foolishly decided by the powers above that we are going to convert to a pure zone blocking scheme).

Predicted answer to the question: I think that Spencer will be at 100% of whatever his post-surgery ability is and that Kubiak will give him every chance to win back the LT spot. For better or worse, unless Spencer is visibly way too slow, has some sort of major surgery-related setback, or Jake Long/Sam Baker falls to us at 18, I’m guessing that Spencer is our guy going into next season.

3. Is Travis Johnson going to be on the 2008 Texans?

Facts: Travis is a loud-mouthed, under achieving jerk. While his taunting of Trent Green was hilarious (to me), his play has never been such that we can absorb his stupid penalties and brain farts.

Prediction: This organization values “character” and “appearances” more than just about any team ever, so I really can’t see how Travis is on this roster come September. He will be gone either through trade (if we can find a sucker) or outright release closer to June 1, either of which is fine because we need a real nose tackle anyway.

4. Which of our free agents are going to be re-signed?

Facts: The following are my predicted fates for the unrestricted free agents:

• Roc Alexander–gone w/ no offer
• Charlie Anderson–signed
• Kevin Barry–gone w/ no offer Oops.
• Mark Bruener–gone? retired? neither?
• Danny Clark–signed
• Andre’ Davis–signed
• Ron Dayne–signed
• Will Demps–signed
• Glenn Earl–gone w/no offer
• Von Hutchins–gone b/c offer withdrawn after Wynn signs
• ND Kalu–signed
• Cedric Killings–gone (retired)
• Jason Simmons–gone w/ no offer
• Matt Turk–signed
• Fred Weary–gone b/c unable to perform in 2008
• Dexter Wynn–signed

And for the restricted free agents:

• CC Brown–signed
• Anthony Maddox–signed
• Jerome Mathis–gone b/c he’s a fragile wuss
• Scott Jackson–signed

Quick Review:

Unrestricted Free Agents have four or more seasons of service and have reached the end of their contract. They are free to sign with any club through the first day of the first scheduled NFL training camp. After that, their exclusive rights revert to their original club (if that club made a June 1 tender to these players) and that team has until the Tuesday after the 10th week of the season to sign the player. If the player does not sign, he must continue to sit out the rest of the season.

Restricted Free Agents have completed three accrued seasons of service and have reached the end of their contracts. They have received offers from their old clubs, but can negotiate with any team until April 21. If a new team’s offer is accepted, the old club has the right to match the offer and keep the player. If they do not match the offer, the old team might receive a compensatory draft pick (subject to how much the new team’s offer was).

Notes regarding predicted answer to the question: I have been going back and forth on whether they will sign Mark Bruener. He’s a great run blocker, but he’s old as hell, so it wouldn’t shock me to see them carry Joel Dreessen if they want a third TE or for them to keep Bruener because they release Putzier. I think the Von Hutchins/Dexter Wynn thing comes down to who signs first and, god, I hope it’s Wynn. I think Demps wins out over Glenn Earl and I think that is a good thing. Finally, I think they keep Turk for another year unless someone releases a top-tier punter for some odd reason.

5. Which free agents from other teams are we looking at?

Facts: We have a better free agent budget than in some recent offseasons, but we are still not free and clear of some of the dead money (Domanick Davis Williams, anyone?) Keeping in mind the overriding philosophy of not over-spending on big names and putting character at the forefront of any player evaluation, here are some names at key positions that I could see us considering (my favorite at each position is linked to player info):

RB–Musa Smith, Derrick Ward, LaBrandon Toefield, Michael Bennett, and Justin Fargas. Notable omissions–Michael Turner (price), Julius Jones (not good)

DE–Marques Douglas, Bobby McCary, Travis LaBoy. Notable omissions–Jared Allen (character, price), Justin Smith (price)

DT–Ethan Kelley, Isaac Sopoaga. (This position is likely better filled through the draft) Notable omissions–Albert Haynesworth (character, price), Pat Williams (I was an idiot and overlooked his extension signed in September, so he’s not a free agent like I had been saying)

S–Gibril Wilson, OJ Atogwe, Mike Doss. (This position is extremely thin in free agency this year) Notable omission–Ken Hamlin (slight character concerns, overpriced due to Pro Bowl)

CB–Keith Smith, Domonique Foxworth, Nnamdi Asomugha. (Yes, I realize Asomugha’s predicted price tag, but if the team thinks Dunta will not be back in 2008 or will not be back to his old self, I think Smithiak realizes the value of a shutdown corner. Plus, I am hoping that his low INT total this year will temper the cost.) Notable omission–Asante Samuel (will think he’s worth too much and won’t talk to smaller-market teams)

OT–Jordan Gross, Stacey Andrews, Adrian Jones. Notable omissions–Flozell Adams (age), Cory Lekkerkerker (not enough Ks for jersey if he’s signed)

6. Which role players/reserves from this year played well enough to challenge for an expanded role next year?

Facts: The injuries to 94.35% of our roster this season gave us an extended look at some guys who under normal circumstances would have gotten nothing but scout team and special teams reps. Honestly, this was the one silver lining to come out of the bubonic plague that struck our locker room.

Not counting free agent guys like Andre Davis and Charlie Anderson, the three guys who jump to mind are Earl Cochran, Kasey Studdard, and Zac Diles. Last one first, Kubiak said recently that Diles had shown an ability to possibly play the other LB positions, so I could see him getting a chance to earn the SLB position in camp next year. This is not ideal–I’d much rather have a pure SLB over there–but if we can’t resign Charlie Anderson and Danny Clark, it might not be the worst thing to happen. Cochran showed a real nose for the ball every time he got in there and he even earned a starting role for the last game of the season. Studdard is a coaching staff favorite and showed real potential on the interior.

Predicted answer to the question: If the team is able to get a big nose tackle either through the draft or through free agency, it would not shock me to see Cochran given a chance at the starting defensive end gig next summer. I like the guy, so this would not bother me. Diles’ opportunity to earn a starting role is going to be limited to a total departure of the other SLBs on the roster or the untimely death of DeMeco Ryans. Finally, Studdard should be in line to compete for an OG position, especially if Spencer is playing OT. There’s also a chance that Brandon Harrison or Brandon Frye could compete, but, again, that is going to depend more on who leaves this offseason than what either actually did during the 2007 campaign.

7. Which starters–other than Travis Johnson–played poorly enough to “earn” their outright releases?

Facts: Anthony Weaver is the highest-paid player on this team, yet he was not even among the five best DEFENSIVE players we had this year. That is unacceptable. Shawn Barber started off fine, but injury derailed him. Still, that might be enough to earn a ticket out. Ahman Green I cannot discuss without getting angry. DeMarcus Faggins should lead this list, but he seems to have some sort of soft spot in the hearts of the leadership. Jeb Putzier…I’m pretty sure he is still on the team, though you wouldn’t know it by watching the last 8 games. Jordan Black was atrocious from day 1. Mike Flanagan apparently subscribed to the Jordan Black newsletter. Finally, Michael Boulware was decent on special teams, but horrid in coverage. If you listen real closely, you can hearing him whiffing on another assignment as I write this.

Obviously, there are salary cap implications for cutting any of these guys. Based on the best numbers I could find, the cap hit for each guy would be as follows (and remember that you can split guys cut on June 1 over two seasons as well as 2 guys cut prior to June 1 but designated as such):

• Weaver: $8.1MM
• Barber: $1.4MM
• Green: $3.75MM
• Faggins: $425K
• Putzier: $950K
• Black: $900K
• Boulware: $0 (unless there are some hidden bonuses that I missed)
• Flanagan: $1MM
• (Johnson: $2.7MM)

Keeping Weaver is going to cost us $6.2MM against the cap, so it depends entirely on whether losing him is worth roughly $2MM plus whatever his replacement costs. Then again, if he is one of the June 1 guys, you are saving money ($4.05MM vs. 6.2MM) in the short term. Knowing this, I think he’s either gone or will be “asked” to restructure his deal. Same deal with Green, though I say it is less likely that he is given the chance to restructure because he is cheaper to cut than to keep ($3.75MM vs. 5.1MM). Deciding whether to keep the others listed here depends less on dollars and cents and more on long-term planning for the franchise.

Predicted answer to the question: Like I said, I think Weaver is either not a Texan or is not under the same contract come September, but I am betting it is the latter. I think Green is giving his walking papers, which he will carry with a limp. Faggins stays around be he’s cheap, they like him for some reason, and because God likes to torture me like that from time to time. Putzier…I’m going back and forth on. I think he’s gone if they keep Bruener and vice versa. Boulware and Flanagan are done. Barber stays because he’s versatile and is good leadership for some of the younger ‘backers.

*****

So, about 2700 words later, there you have it. One obsessive-compulsive fan’s look at the background questions that have to be answered before we can form a coherent draft strategy. I’m sure I missed something in there.