Three pies and a cloud of meringue
Jan 21, 2008 2007 Season, 2008 Draft, Charles Spencer, Free Agency, Offensive (punch)Line, RB free-for-all, Ron Dayne likes pie
There’s been a lot of talk about taking a running back with our first round pick in the 2008 Draft - with good cause - so I am going to take just a quick look behind and ahead at our RB experience.
2007 was the year of the Pie for the Texans running game. After signing a $400 quadrillion contract in the off-season, Ahman Green proved what most of the rest of us already knew: a RB over 30 years old = over the hill. And to get over that hill, he’ll need some oxygen. Now, it is true that Green looked great in the pre-season and in the first game. Sadly, though his longest rush of the year came on his first rush of the year, and he wound up with only 260 yards and a pathetic 3.7 YPC. This left the majority of the team’s carries to Ron Dayne.
It’s not like Dayne had a bad year. His YPC was marginally successful at 4.0, but the league averaged 4.1 YPC. In other words, the guy who got the ball the most for us was below average versus the league…including the super sucky Bears. As a team, the Texans ranked 24th in YPC and 22nd in total rushing yards. Yeah, as master of the obvious, let me state: we need to improve the running game.
As Matt mentions in his Zone Blocking Manifesto, Gibbs is unlikely to take an offensive lineman in the first round, though he has done this. With as deep of a crop of RBs as there are in this year’s draft, I’m not sold on taking a RB with our first pick, either. Look at how well 7th round pick Ahmad Bradshaw performed last night: RB talent can be found deep in the draft. We know that Gibbs alone with help the running game, but there’s no way in hell we should count on Barbaro Spencer being healthy, either. There are a ton of variables at play here to improve the running game, and I haven’t even talked about the rest of the offense yet.
Personally, I’m starting to convince myself that signing Tatum Bell might be a good idea, then use a pick (maybe a 2nd rounder if we trade back, or a 3rd rounder if not) to take a RB. Bell should come relatively cheaply, and he knows the system. Hell, in Denver, he averaged 4.9 YPC. Yes, he comes with some baggage (pouty, can’t handle a big workload, issues picking up the blitz), but he also gives us the home run ability that not a single other Texan on the roster has. After his 39 yard run, Dayne had to have a peach pie IVed into him. By drafting a RB a little later, we can still address the problem in the running game and plug a hole elsewhere.
Regardless (and assuming we re-sign him), if Dayne gets more than 40 carries in 2008, we will have to consider our off-season plan to address the running game a failure. And, no, I give no disclaimer due to injury. Simply, there are better options out there than Dayne, and we need to find them.
Source: nfl.com for stats.
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January 21st, 2008 at 9:54 am
Barbaro Spencer…lol
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January 21st, 2008 at 9:56 am
DO NOT DRAFT A RB in 1st round (unless Felix slides a loooong way to us).
Draft defensive backs, and then steal a 3rd round RB (of which there will be many to choose from who will cost a lot less).
Or just freakin’ sign Musa Smith. Not Tatum. We already have enough problems with turnovers.
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January 21st, 2008 at 10:14 am
What is this “citing of sources” thing? I’ve never seen it on this site before.
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January 21st, 2008 at 10:21 am
@Edgar: Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. That was dangerously close to being “scholarly.”
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January 21st, 2008 at 10:26 am
next thing you know, this blog will look like a law review journal article!
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January 21st, 2008 at 10:30 am
Edgar, the problem is that Matt has everything memorized, and I don’t. SO, I have to look shit up.
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January 21st, 2008 at 12:12 pm
I’m on the fence about whether or not we should join in the Michael Turner Auction. I doubt we could afford to….Maybe we could work some trade magic for Chester Taylor? I think either one of those guys would be obvious and instant upgrades for our running game. But, it’s probably gonna take a lesser known FA or a second day draft pick to step up for us next year….
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January 21st, 2008 at 12:28 pm
Tatum Bell has a reputation for not only being a pussy, but a bad blocker. There’s no way Kubiak wants a bad blocker in at running back. But yeah, Chester Taylor would be great if we could somehow afford to give away the resources necessary.
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January 21st, 2008 at 12:39 pm
Sage for Taylor? I’m on board with that.
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January 21st, 2008 at 12:45 pm
I may put up a post about FA RBs, but I have another I’m going to spit out real fast. A couple of thoughts:
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Taylor: He signed a 4 year deal in 2006 for $14.1MM, so there’d be a bit of a price tag to eat (btw, I’m all for cutting Green NOW and not dicking around with the decision). He could be an interesting short-term option as he plays 2008 at 29, but I don’t know where we have the depth to make a deal, and we need talent in a lot of different places.
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Bell: Yeah, definitely not saying that this frog doesn’t have warts.
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Turner: I think he’ll be looking for $5-$7MM, and there’s one team in particular with a sucky running game and some serious cap room that’ll be likely to pay big for him: Da Bears.
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My bottom line is, just say no to Ron Dayne, and I’m still not real interested in using our first rounder on a RB.
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January 21st, 2008 at 12:59 pm
Bears won’t pay Turner - they still have Benson and his contract to eat. Unlikely they can/will give Turner his $6M when they focus their attention on begging Philly to trade McNabb.
Bell is absolutely not an option. If he couldn’t work in Martz’s offense (and Martz cares not about turnovers), he won’t survive here.
I *love* Chester Taylor’s game - but the Vikings can’t eat his contract just yet. And for $3M a season, he’s a pretty good backup to Purple Jesus (who can and will get hurt every year).
Are either of the Clemson RBs declaring for the draft? I’d target them. Or Felix.
*** oh, and I’d look for Turner to find his way to the NFC - possibly with Seahawks after they cut ties with Shaun Alexander.
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January 21st, 2008 at 1:05 pm
Felix is my dream choice.
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eom
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January 21st, 2008 at 1:19 pm
Tatum Bell is a great change-of-pace back, but he gets exponentially worse when he’s the starting guy. Maybe we could get Mike Anderson too and put him back in his comfort zone? Denver was 13-3 that year and almost posted two one-thousand yard rushers in the same season. Obviously they had mountain man/pornstache Plummer leading them to victory, but Kasey Studdard is no slouch with his neckbeard.
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January 21st, 2008 at 1:23 pm
Oh yeah, grungedave, I forgot the mention the Peterson is a weinie factor. I don’t think the Vikes will trade Taylor for that reason alone.
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Some numbers (carries/fumble):
Bell - 52.5
Taylor - 59.5
Ahman Green - 55.5
Tomlinson - 98.5
Turner - 114
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January 21st, 2008 at 2:37 pm
BFD,
do those fumble numbers take into account the number of missed blocks by Tatum that result in his QB getting blindsided and subsequently fumbling?
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January 21st, 2008 at 3:10 pm
I guess it’s time for me to weigh in on this conversation. First, Minnesota won’t deal Taylor because Peterson is so injury prone. After all, he IS an Oklahomo. Second, we won’t get involved in the auction for Turner. We have too many holes to fill to throw all of our resources at his ass. Third, I won’t be surprised when Tatum Bell lands in Houston. Kubes doesn’t seem to be able to pass up taking a chance on former players and I don’t think it’s a very good idea. Fourth, I have to agree with BFD on the draft opinion. I honestly believe we can find some really good talent after the first round. I’m still praying and sacrificing small animals for Jamaal Charles to be available at our second pick. Fifth, I still think that Matt’s “Charles Spencer is not Barbaro” post is one of his funniest. Sixth, the Cowboys suck balls and Peyton Manning is sucking Kenney Chesney’s right now.
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Keep up the great tag-team action on the posts. I’m diggin the shit out of it.
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January 21st, 2008 at 3:49 pm
@nash:
Tatum Bell = Tatum Bell
Mike Anderson = Ron Dayne
Are we actually thinking about this as a good thing? Fuck me. Rookie RBs tend to be plug-and-play; they don’t require the development, etc. that you have with QBs and other players who have to learn “the system”. So long as the zone blocking does what it’s supposed to do, we could have Mike Rozier in the backfield and get 1,000 yards from him.
Side note: in my old age, I’d forgotten Rozier’s first name (thought it was Mark), and a Wikipedia search uncovered something awful: a search for “Houston Oilers” redirects to the page about the Titans. That’s fucking criminal.
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January 21st, 2008 at 4:01 pm
@Rob: Mike Rozier, nice one. That was a great era for Houston football, although I prefer to go a little farther back. Kenny Burroughs, Billy “White Shoes” Johnson, Dan Pastorini, Earl Campbell, Robert Brazile, Carl Mauck, Elvin Bethea, Mike Renfro. THEY WERE FOOTBALL PLAYERS. You wouldn’t have caught ANY of them crying about “Their Quarterback.”
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January 21st, 2008 at 4:02 pm
@BFD: RE:18, you’re feeling me.
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January 22nd, 2008 at 8:33 am
Oh hell yeah, stacy. though, seriously, I think Mauck would break down every now and then. But if you were willing to make fun of his man-hood, good luck. Between Bethea, Culp, and Mauck, there simply weren’t tougher football players anywhere.
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@grungedave: did Bell kidnap your kitten or something? sheesh. <-insert smiley emoticon here!
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Rob, I think a rookie running back would struggle in similar areas where Bell is weak (as grungedave rightly points out), which is in blocking and picking up the blitz. stacy mentions Jamaal-American, and he’s a perfect example of a back who has struggled with blocking. Yet, if he’s there in the 3rd (though incredibly doubtful)?
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As I was thinking about this this morning, and from Dayne saying he wants to stay in Houston, I think we’ll have to rely on finding a RB in the draft as Dayne seems (gut feel) to be the default guy. RBs who have their career years at 29 frighten me. We made a huge mistake with Green last year, and I’d prefer to avoid a similar mistake this year.
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January 22nd, 2008 at 10:20 am
@grunge: James Davis from Clemson decided he’s staying in school.
@UTtypes: Peterson is not any more/less injury prone than anyone else. Anyone toting the rock as much as he did would’ve gotten dinged. He had a high ankle sprain in college, which usually ruins your year. It did his. Then he had a freak separated shoulder that is usually pretty bothersome (see Jacoby Jones). As much as I hate UT and most of its players, I try to at least be fair when assessing them. Join the club, fellas.
Now, I think we might be jumping the gun a bit on the “green is old and sucks” wagon. Granted, he was only healthy for a preseason and one half of one game, but looked like the answer then. Now, I can’t dispute his age as being somewhat a deterrence, but the knee thing really wiped him out. It sucks, yes, but he doesn’t. We should prolly calm down a bit on Green, and quit saying it was a useless signing. It’s not like he was shit from day 1 (fucking Phillip Buchanon motherfucker).
Anyway, this might be the only “lets be nice” post you’ll ever read from the beef, as I’m a hate-monger most times (if you haven’t noticed yet).
Go back to skating in the regular direction.
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January 22nd, 2008 at 10:41 am
WTF??? A kinder, gentler beef? Has the world gone mad?
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I think I would be a bit more optimistic about Green if he had opted for surgery. Instead, he’s trying to rehab his way out of it. Frankly, that rarely works. For what we are paying him, personally, I would rather take the cap penalty and get in somebody who’s more reliable. As a fellow old dude, that’s just my opinion on him.
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January 22nd, 2008 at 11:05 am
@bfd: I can get behind that. (hey… EASY VY!!)
You may be right about the surgery. Hopefully we’ll know exactly how he stands by June 1.
Oh, and when I said green looked like THE answer, I meant AN answer. Stopgap stylee.
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January 22nd, 2008 at 11:09 am
Tatum only managed to ruin my FFL season *and* get my FFL QB killed in one league… the rat bastard.