A dog’s got personality. Personality goes a long way.
Mar 11, 2008 2004 Draft, 2006 Draft, 2007 Draft, 2008 Combine, 2008 Draft, 2008 Season, Amobi Okoye is 20, Corky Johnson, DeMeco Ryans, Demarcus Faggins sucks, Huh?, Jason Babin, Morlon Greenwood, Posts that list too many players, Pulp Fiction, Rendhel and Sid, Teams that aren't the Texans
It is not much of an exaggeration to say that I have seen Pulp Fiction at least 500 times. My freshman-year roommate had a copy (VHS, baby!) stolen from Blockbuster, which we watched almost daily for that entire year, and I’ve continued to watch it more frequently than any other movie over the past decade. I am reasonably sure this says something about me, but I’m not sure what it is.1
Anyway…I mention this as background because, by this point, you’d think nothing could surprise me in that film. You’d be wrong.
So, here’s the deal. When the guy who looks somewhat like Jerry Seinfeld comes out of the bathroom and shoots at Vince and Jules, why in the hell did he have that gun in the bathroom with him in the first place?
Hear me out–clearly, Brett and “Flock of Seagulls” were not expecting Marsellus’ guys to show up at that instant, as they were enjoying Big Kahuna Burgers2 and just otherwise chilling. Seagulls was lying on the couch and, one assumes, did not have a gun within easy reach. Brett, likewise, was seemingly unarmed. The look of terror on both of their faces suggests that, had they been expecting a visit from Jules and Vince, they would certainly have been armed and ready to shoot for their lives. I mean, Brett seems to know from the moment Marvin opens the door that he is probably going to die. If you had ripped off a crime kingpin and were expecting hitmen to show up and kill you, would you be more likely to sit and eat burgers or arm yourself and prepare to shoot back?
Besides, on top of the surprise factor, you have the size of the gun. It was, as Vincent pointed out, “a goddamned hand cannon.” Such a gun is not the type that someone would have cavalierly tucked in his waistband, nor was he wearing a holster. So basically, logic dictates that he either picked up the gun and carried into the bathroom or the gun was already in the bathroom. Neither of these situations really makes sense to me. On the one hand, if Brett and Seagulls were not expecting Vince and Jules to arrive, there’s no reason to think Guy in Bathroom would have suspected it enough to carry a large handgun into the crapper. Likewise, I can see no reason why that gun would already be in the bathroom considering the people out in the living room did not have guns within easy reach.
By now, you are probably thinking “what the hell does this have to do with football?” Simple: I had been blindly accepting the situation as it was presented to me, when I should have been considering the context. Because, once you consider the context, some things that seem to make sense really don’t.3
Which brings me (finally) to the draft.
Over the past days and weeks, many people have come to grips with the idea that the Texans are probably taking a CB with the 18th pick in the draft. On the surface, where you have an injured Dunta Robinson; a horrid Petey Faggins; a possibly-horrid Jacques Reeves; and are relying on a second-year corner and a veteran sex machine safety, it would seem logically sound to take a corner and hope to improve your atrocious secondary. It would seem that way until you really consider the context.
Right now, you can easily claim that our holes on defense are NT, DE2, CB2, SLB, and (possibly) SS. Of those holes, CB2 is the one where we have already spent the most cap space this offseason, albeit on a guy who might not be able to cover me for 4 seconds. Does it make sense to use your draft pick on a guy who play the same position as the guy you just overpaid for?
But that’s not even the biggest issue.
The fact is, a great defensive line can make a suspect secondary look average to good for multiple games in a season. A fantastic secondary can make an average D-line look good a couple times per game. Partly, this is because of the nature of the rules that allow WRs to play virtually untouched. But it is also due in no small part to the logistics of what the positions are asked to do. Your defensive line exists to get to the QB (or RB), correct? Well, they know where the QB is going to be once the ball is snapped. Defensive backs, on the other hand, are asked to cover someone with no clue as to where he is going or what path he will take to get there. This means that even the best CBs are going to get beat on a long enough timeline. SO–and I know you see where I am going with this–you can improve your secondary just as much by drastically shortening the length of time you ask them to cover as by upgrading your cornerbacks.
Hell, this year’s Super Bowl Champion New York Giants are an embodiment of this principle. Their monster defensive line was able to consistently get pressure on opposing QBs. Because of this, the Giants were able to survive with subpar linebackers (Pierce is a good player, but his main strength is in leadership and getting the D set correctly; Mitchell is a smart player and a sure tackler but is nothing special; and Torbor is notably below average, but tough) and an average defensive backfield. Corey Webster looks like he turned it around, but he still isn’t very good yet. Aaron Ross looked very good for a rookie, but Gibril Wilson is at best good (in terms of skills he’s probably comparable to a healthy Will Demps, maybe very slightly better) and James Butler more or less stinks.
Yet, despite having a back seven that was basically average, the Giants defense looked absolutely dominant at times–including against the Patriots–because they were able to get after opposing QBs on a regular basis. This is not a novel concept, really. And, given the choice, I would almost always rather go into a season with three great defensive lineman than with 2 great defensive linemen and a great DB. And, hell, with Ryans and Greenwood behind a line similar to the Giants, even Petey Faggins would seem decent at cornerback.
*Pauses to consider the implications of that last sentence. Shudders.*
WHICH (finally) brings me to my bigger point. Namely that, if we are drafting defense in the first round or third round, we should be looking for a defensive tackle or a speedy defensive end or–shockingly–both. I mean, clearly someone in Texans management thought that Reeves could play or else they wouldn’t have signed him. You want to make that signing make sense? Then put together a front four that can limit how long he has to cover. The kid has fantastic speed, but his instincts and coverage skills are not all that amazing. Ask him to cover for 2.5 seconds instead of 4.5 and his speed/quickness should be able to overcome his technique/skills. Unless, that is, someone thought it prudent to give $8MM guaranteed for a nickel corner. Which I choose to believe no one in our front office is stupid enough to do.
[Author's note: I realize that some of this--ok, fine, much of this--is a rehashing of the philosophy I've been espousing since the end of the season. I was pushing for a NT at that time and, for the most part, my position hasn't changed. I have only amended it to say that I would be nearly as happy with a solid DE and that the only CB I would be willing to change my opinion for would be the mutant Rodgers-Cromartie.]
Who, then, should we be looking at? I’m glad you asked. Two names that immediately jump out to me are Brian Johnston and Kentwan Balmer.
Last one first, let’s take a look at Balmer, since most of you have probably heard of him. A 6-5, 308 DT out of UNC, Balmer posted 59 tackles (33 solos), including 3.5 sacks, 9.5 TFL, and four quarterback pressures. Balmer was solid against the run in general, allowing 1.69 yards/carry on his 55 running stops. The one knock I would have against him is that he is about 15 lbs lighter (minimum) than I would like out of my NT, but that is countered by the fact that he is strong (33 reps) and explosive (29 in. vertical jump). Even better for our purposes, Balmer is currently projected to go in the late first/early second, meaning he should be available at 18. Speaking of that 18th pick, I think even if most teams have Balmer slotted at 25-30, we should be willing to reach a little if we find a guy we really want because of the lack of a second rounder.
The other guy I mentioned, Brian Johnston, might be unfamiliar to many of you. That’s what happens when you go to Gardner-Webb and don’t get a combine invite. Of course, after reading about his tryout in front of some NFL scouts, maybe he should have been invited.
Measuring in at 6-foot-5, 274 pounds, Johnston ran his first 40-yard dash in 4.66 seconds. Johnston’s 40-yard dash time would have been the fourth best at the NFL combine for defensive ends, and the best for any lineman weighing more than 260 pounds.
Johnston’s most impressive stat from the 40-yard dash came with a very strong 1.51-second time through the first 10 yards, an important time with regards to a players quickness. By comparison, Johnston’s 10-yard split was the same as Arkansas’ running back Darren McFadden turned in at the Combine earlier this year.
The most impressive result overall, however, may have been Johnston’s time in the 20-yard shuttle. He turned in a 4.18-second time, which is better than any lineman at the NFL’s Scouting Combine. In fact, the 4.18-second time was faster than any running back at the event – with Illinois’ Rashard Mendenhall the only back to match that time.
So, yeah…I’d say he fits the definition of a speed-rushing DE. Now, I know some of you are likely saying “ACK! Workout warrior from a small school! Babin! BABIN!!!” That’s fair. But let’s not forget that Babin was a college 4-3 DE drafted to play OLB in an NFL 3-4. Going forward was never a problem for him; it was sideline to sideline and dropping into TE coverage that killed him. In Johnston’s case, you would be drafting a college 4-3 DE speed-rusher to play NFL 4-3 DE speed-rusher. And, because Mario and Okoye occupy the extra blockers, he’d be going one-on-one with o-linemen most of the time. That’s always nice when you are lightning-fast.
ANYWAY, I am just spitballing here. If the word around the campfire is to be believed, we will take someone like Aqib Talib at 18 and then a RB in the third. And I’ll deal with it, even if I don’t think it is the right approach. And, hell, maybe I get kinda lucky and we take Talib (or whomever) in the first but still snag Johnston in the third. Regardless, until Draft Day, I am just going to keep doing my best to shepherd the weak through the valley of darkness.4
1 That’s not entirely true. I think it says that I liked the movie when it was (a) popular, (b) cliched, (c) ironic, and (d) suggestive that I am getting old.
2 That IS a tasty burger!
3 On the flip-side, some things that seem utterly inexplicable–say, the selection of Mario Williams over Reggie Bush–make perfect sense once you consider the context. While some things–say, the popularity of Mambo No. 5–remain inexplicable regardless of how much you ponder them.
4 And to not shoot Marvin in the face.
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March 11th, 2008 at 8:36 pm
Oh, and I thought you were going all Pulp Fiction to discuss the main point of the movie, other than references to tasty burgers. Some people think that movie is just a rambling discourse of disjointed thoughts.
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Basically, as I see it, the movie is all about how the choices you make, change the options open to you. But even when you are making choices, you can’t account for absurd chance, both lucky and disasterously unlucky.
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This seems to me to be what the NFL is all about. That you need luck but that you need to make your own luck. In the end, you are responsible for those choices no matter how they turn out.
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That being said, people will freak if the Texans take a defensive lineman with the first pick. Even if the Texans defensive line as it is currently constructed is woefully out of balance.
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Personally, I think the Texans have gone over their quota for developmental players from small schools. I think that they are more at the stage where they need players who competed at the highest level and had a lot of success there. ala your blog’s namesake.
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No Country For Old Men came out in BluRay DVD today.
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March 11th, 2008 at 9:01 pm
[...] entidio wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptHell, this year’s Super Bowl Champion New York Giants are an embodiment of this principle. Their monster defensive line was able to consistently get pressure on opposing QBs. Because of this, the Giants were able to survive with subpar … Read the rest of this great post here [...]
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March 11th, 2008 at 9:22 pm
I’m starting to come around to the “we should get someone for the front 4″ school, but with regard to Johnson, what’s to say that he wouldn’t fall to the third round, allowing us to pick him up there? Is he truly, universally considered a first round talent? Gaudy numbers don’t lie, but team brass who want to make a splash with their fanbase aren’t gonna pick someone from Gardner-Webb, are they? Question mark?
Also, I never go into pawn shops anymore after seeing Pulp Fiction. Too risky.
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March 11th, 2008 at 10:02 pm
I just figured out what was in the brief case… it’s our 2nd round draft pick.
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March 12th, 2008 at 7:50 am
[...] Original post by Matt [...]
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March 12th, 2008 at 7:52 am
The numbers are certainly impressive, but you have to take into account they were run in a different place than the combine numbers and, more relevant, a place familiar to the person running. A lot of top talents choose not to run at the combine so they can run back at their school because they think they can run a better time there (for example, most people seem to think McFadden only ran at the Combine because of the depth of the RB class).
Part of the value of the Combine times is they’re all run on the same track that is equally unfamiliar to each player, so there’s a common ground for comparison. We don’t have that here. Do you really think he has better change of direction than any RB that was at the combine? I know I don’t.
All that said, though, the numbers are impressive and definitely warrant taking a closer look at the guy.
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March 12th, 2008 at 8:11 am
[...] said, and with another influence from Matt’s post yesterday, my current hypothesis is that we go DE in Round 1, RB/LT in Round 3, LT/RB in Round 4, [...]
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March 12th, 2008 at 8:14 am
For someone who has seen Pulp Fiction 500 times, wouldn’t you be observant enough to recognize a handful of lazy college students when you see ‘em. Someone probably brought the hand cannon into the bathroom a whole month before the Seinfeld lookalike decided to take a crap that day. It was probably just sitting there. And since college students don’t clean up or organize, the “randomness” of the situation really isn’t that random!
Just like the briefcase filled with who knows what would not normally be “hidden” underneath the sink in the kitchen. For Vincent’s easy access.
speaking of which, that’s probably how we ended up with Petey in the first place. Someone in scouting did not think the situation all the way through and got lazy.
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March 12th, 2008 at 8:23 am
Oh, and speaking of movies seen 500 times, my two are “Clerks” and “Top Gun” (before Maverick became a psycho nut-job).
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March 12th, 2008 at 9:02 am
@Steph: Re: developmental players, my point is that Johnston isn’t as much of a project as one might think (and he certainly isn’t Jason Babin) because you are asking him to do exactly what he’s been doing all along–go forward as fast as he can. You combine his NFL size with his speed and it’s hard to see him not being an impact player at the next level. And his body of work (t-2d nationally this season in tackles for loss) supports the idea that he is more than just a workout warrior.
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@Rob: I definitely think Johnston will be there in the third. Balmer is the one I was targeting in the first.
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@Chris: Also, Scott is in the briefcase.
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@TBL: You are correct that some players choose not to run at the Combine because they want better environs for the workout, but Johnston went to school in North Carolina and ran his workout in front of pro scouts in San Diego, CA, which could not have been all that familiar to him. Do I think he’s quicker than McFadden on a neutral course? Of course not. But when his numbers dwarf the other linemen who were invited to the Combine and stack up against RBs, so long as they were done in front of NFL scouts, you have to consider them fairly representative.
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@Dave: No way are they all lazy college kids. I grant you that Seagulls looked to be a lazy slob, but Brett was already dressed in a button-down shirt (which, I believe you can see is tucked in when he gets shot) and has his hair combed. Additionally, there were no dishes piled up in the kitchen, nor was there a stack of pizza boxes and a mountain of Natty Light cans.
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Also, Top Gun was on cable the other night and I pointed out to my wife how unintentionally gay it was. She couldn’t stop laughing at it.
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March 12th, 2008 at 9:22 am
Apparently there is a lengthy Tarantino rant about the homoerotic-ness of Top Gun on either the Pulp Fiction commentary or the From Dusk Til Dawn commentary.
The movie is awesome, but gay in many ways.
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March 12th, 2008 at 9:27 am
If oiled-up beach volleyball between shirtless men is wrong, Tom Cruise don’t wanna be right.
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March 12th, 2008 at 9:55 am
So, by that reasoning, if Petey Faggins had a better personality, he’d cease to be a shitty cornerback?
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March 12th, 2008 at 10:02 am
Yeah, but we’d have to be talking one charming motherfucking Faggins. He’d have to be 10 times more charming than that Deion Sanders.
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March 12th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
@Dave, Matt
What I know of guys is that they oft bring random things in the bathroom with them when they do their business. And they are way more obsessed about their BMs then females are. (duration, shape, smell, timing, etc. to grossness).
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So, if a dude brings a gun with him to the bathroom, that’s maybe unusual, but not outside the realm of the random disgusting stuff guys do in the bathroom.
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@Matt
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As for who they pick, I really don’t have a dog in this hunt. I haven’t seen the college players play, and find internet draft reports to be really wildly inaccurate. If your guy is a complete player, then hooray, but I’m not making judgments based on stats and workout numbers because that’s just a part of football and just a part of an evaluation.
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The Texans have reached in the past for developmental guys with perceived upside (Babin, Wand, Mathis, Jones), and they’ve picked very developed players who have competed at the highest level (AJ, DeMeco), and at this time in the Texans history, I would prefer someone who we don’t have to learn up much. The NFL is a transition for any player, but it is inherently more difficult for a small school guy.
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I find draftnik stuff kind of silly and fascinating. So much of the information out there is crap. The best way to know that for sure is to look at past draft evaluations. More of it is crap than not crap. Why?
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All players have strengths and weaknesses. And most analysts have a hard time figuring out what is real and what is just saying stuff to cover yourself in case a guy turns out to be really good or really bad. And the truth about the draft is that there are few players who are so good that they would be able to excel no matter what the fit with the team is.
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So I just end up hoping for the best player available in one of the many areas of needs. And hope he stays healthy.
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So at this time of year, I tend to concentrate on what my team needs. And I kinda sorta know some about the potential players out there. But I don’t pretend I actually know anything about them. And then after the draft, I try to research the guys we actually draft to see if I can find anything that might tell me about them.
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The name sake of this board is an illustration of this. At the time of the draft, there were tons of idiots who were pissed that the Texans didn’t take O lineman with DeMeco’s pick. Another defensive player? Schaub will get killed? blah blah blah. They felt better after the third round, but still. So, I’d like to see a complete player in the #18 spot to fill any number of our important needs, whoever that guy is.
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People get very opinionated at this time of year about players, but this is the time of year where I try to keep an very open mind about stuff. Where I try to figure out why my favorite team made certain picks without paying too much attention to the hype.
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March 12th, 2008 at 1:52 pm
I simply do not believe that we would select a DE in the first unless there it truely is the best player available, say Merling is there but Mendenhall, Stewart, and all of the first round corners except for Talib are gone.
I think we need to trust the development of Amobi, trust the development of Cochran and draft a specialist type rusher in the later rounds where such guys are available. If we drafted a DE in the first round we would have five guys playing with first round contracts on our line. That’s alot of cap space that could go to fix the three most broken parts of our team, secondary running game and pass protection. While, I will agree that a great pass rush is more effective than a great secondary a great pass rush with nothing in the secondary isn’t very effective either.
I believe that with the present personnel the pass rush will continue to improve while, without any serious additions, the secondary will get considerably worse.
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I always wondered why Marvin didn’t tell them about Seinfeld myself.
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March 12th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
Also, Brian Johnson is a 5th round prospect.
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March 12th, 2008 at 5:03 pm
I don’t think we’d take Johnston in the first; I have him as our ideal third rounder. But those fifth round projections were made prior to him dominating his private workout. There is no way he survives into the fourth.
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March 12th, 2008 at 6:10 pm
Steph: I thought we drafted DeMeco before we got Schaub…
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March 13th, 2008 at 8:58 am
@19 NormZinNJ–You are correct sir. That Carr would get killed.
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March 13th, 2008 at 9:00 am
@Steph 20: That’s something I am still hoping for.
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March 13th, 2008 at 10:12 am
Maybe if we arrange for all of the red jerseys in New York to go missing during a practice or two…