Run, fool!
Aug 5, 2008 2007 Season, Huh?, I was told there would be no math, Stats
So, I was killing time just a few minutes ago and I started looking at random Texans’ stats. Get this:
When the Texans rushed to the left last year, which they did 91 times, they averaged 3.7/carry.
When the Texans rushed up the middle, which they did 114 times, they averaged 3.7/carry.
But, when the Texans rushed to the right, which they did only 42 times, they averaged 5.1/carry.
OK…sure…you generally expect that a team will do a little better running to the strong side. That makes sense, right? But here’s where it gets weird. The left-run average? 25th in the league. The middle-run avearge? 4th in the league. The right-run average? 11th in the league.
What does all this mean? I dunno. Nada, I suppose. It just struck me as note-worthy that our much-maligned running game was actually well above average on 156 of our 247 carries. (Here is where one of the 50 engineers who reads this blog should chime in with some better analysis. Lawyers don’t do math. Well, other than grungedave, but he’s odd.)
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August 5th, 2008 at 8:38 pm
After many seconds of detailed statistical analysis, I have come to the conclusion that if 11 > 25, then Eric Winston > Ephraim Salaam. I believe it’s the transitive property.
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August 5th, 2008 at 8:42 pm
Lawyers can figure out one third, unless things go to trial than it is 40% plus expenses.
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Not me though, cuz I never did that sort of law. I know how to tip 20% off the top of my head because I was a waitress back in the day.
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August 5th, 2008 at 9:54 pm
Thankfully, we have something more intelligent than these stupid stats:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol.php
This is a much better way to judge OL quality than just a general rushing average, because one 50 yard run won’t skew the stats the way it does the other one.
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August 5th, 2008 at 9:57 pm
Here’s a great math quiz that even lawyers can figure out:
Matt boards a Greyhound bus, headed for Houston, traveling 55mph. BFD boards an Amtrack train, also headed for Houston, traveling 50mph. Matt packed a cheese sandwich for lunch. BFD packed a spam and cheese sandwich for dinner. Both have an apple as a snack. Matt is wearing a white wife-beater and shorts. BFD is wearing a t-shirt that says, “I found Jesus. He was behind the couch.” and walking shorts.
What is the difference in the mph that Matt is traveling vs. BFD?
See…Lawyers CAN do math.(assuming that your answer was 5)
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August 5th, 2008 at 9:57 pm
There’s all sorts of faults with this data.
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1) Sample size. 42 runs aren’t much.
2) Who made those runs? If 30 of them are Darius Walker and 12 are Ron Dayne, that’s completely different than a 50/50 split.
3) Yes, it’s the strong side. That’s a big deal.
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August 5th, 2008 at 10:00 pm
@socctty: @NewsToTom: I agree that the FO approach is better regarding the line. And I agree that the sample size is small. My question, I guess, is why would we be one of the worst teams in the league running left and one of the better running right (and one of the best up the middle)?
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I know that the strong side makes a difference—I said as much—but, as compared to other teams, we were better doing it than we were going the other direction.
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August 5th, 2008 at 10:00 pm
@Foomey: True?
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August 5th, 2008 at 10:02 pm
@NewsToTom: Also, according to those FO numbers, we were the 10th-best run blocking line AND had the fewest number of stuffed runs in all of football. If that is the case, why were we putrid running to the left? (I assume the answer has something to do with E. Salaam and C. Pitts.)
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August 5th, 2008 at 10:05 pm
@Foomey: Is the answer Taco Bell?
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August 6th, 2008 at 12:11 am
@Foomey: Wait, it’s a trick question. Matt wouldn’t be on the bus, cause he’d be sick and have to get off. Right?
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August 6th, 2008 at 12:23 am
I’m a BESF fan, so I don’t actually know anything, let alone anything about the Texans. Try taking a look at the OL stats page, and scroll down to the side splits, though: the Texans are 4th running Left End, 15th running left tackle, 13th running up the middle, 5th running right tackle, and 15th running right end. So, using those stats, your team actually isn’t any worse running left than they are right-they’re really about the same.
The reason you guys look great running right is your best run of the year, Walker’s 41 yard run against the Jags, went right end according to the official PBP. Take that out, and your average running right is down to 4.3. I’m sure the reason the Vikings look great running right is they have long runs that way, too. Hell, since the best numbers come from running right, maybe the extra blocker means you’re more likely to get those really long runs that way. But, that doesn’t actually mean running right is nearly as good as it looks in the article.
Bottom line, you’re looking at numbers calculated stupidly and getting stupid results.
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August 6th, 2008 at 6:29 am
@NewsToTom: OK, that makes more sense. (Admittedly, I hadn’t taken a close look at the FO page, just the stuff above the fold.)
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Also, your ability to make cogent arguments and do math that requires more than counting on your toes really jacks up my view of BESF fans. You sure you don’t want to root for a team that isn’t owned by Satan’s fluffer?
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August 6th, 2008 at 6:29 am
@Andy: How droll.
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August 6th, 2008 at 7:36 am
@Matt: @bigfatdrunk: @Andy: (crying in my cleavage) The world is coming to an end, isn’t it? Good try, boys, but Andy wins. it was a trick question. BFD would actually have taken a bowl of granola on the train, and was sitting in First Class. Matt, however, was “found out” by his elementary school math teacher, and sent back to school for the summer. Rumor has it that he sat in class, naked, and used every last appendage to count to 18.(yes, 18) Way to go Andy!!!
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August 6th, 2008 at 8:25 am
@Andy: Awarded four solo tackles and an assist.
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Between Eric, Tman, and NTT, I believe we have found the only three literate people in the entire state of TN. Nicely done!
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August 6th, 2008 at 8:43 am
@bigfatdrunk: Errr, and their families, you insensitive asshole.
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August 6th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
I’m not as familiar with the sabermetric side of football (although I’m very interested), but from a statistical standpoint here’s what you would do. You’ve already proven that a single large run can skew the average such that you can’t draw a solid conclusion on it, but that doesn’t mean that you can’t use the data.
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What you would need to do is collect the raw data, i.e. every run, what direction it went, who ran it, and how far it went, and probably who was involved in the play. Then you could estimate not just the average, but the probability of breaking off a 5 yard run, 10 yard run, etc. based on your various player configurations.
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I mentioned before that when I was in grad school, I took a sports management class taught by Daryl Morey. This is one of the processes that he uses to evaluate basketball players. He calculates the statistics of each player combination in various game scenarios and then determines which combinations work the best together.
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August 6th, 2008 at 3:13 pm
Ahhh, yes, math. I like math. But my math background combined with my law background got my geeky ass sent to New Jersey this week… and I haven’t stumbled into Jay or Silent Bob (yet).
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August 6th, 2008 at 4:35 pm
@grungedave: Well…did you bother to go to Redbank? Have you seen “Jay and Silent Bob’s Secret Stash”? Neat little store, if you’ve never been. I got to meet Kevin Smith several years back. Jay, I believe, was in jail at the time. According to IMDb.com, Kevin Smith isn’t doing any film work at this very moment. He is in post-production of one project, but he may very well be in NJ right now.
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August 6th, 2008 at 4:35 pm
@grungedave: Well…did you bother to go to Redbank? Have you seen “Jay and Silent Bob’s Secret Stash”? Neat little store, if you’ve never been. I got to meet Kevin Smith several years back. Jay, I believe, was in jail at the time. According to IMDb.com, Kevin Smith isn’t doing any film work at this very moment. He is in post-production of one project, but he may very well be in NJ right now.
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August 6th, 2008 at 5:05 pm
My hotel is in Red Bank… the Stash is on Broad St., but it’s never open when I can go visit.
“Zach and Miri Make a Porno” just won its appeal and got an “R” rating instead of the dreaded NC-17… that’s what Silent Bob was busy doing. See, lawyers *are* useful.
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August 6th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
@grungedave: I actually read that when I was checking on Kevin Smith’s activities. Should be a good movie. Yes, lawyers are useful. (especially when you get arrested for streaking at 3:30am, and the cops make inappropriate comments…but I’m not talking about myself, of course)
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August 6th, 2008 at 6:16 pm
I was a huge Kevin Smith fan back in the day. Clerks and Chasing Amy is what helped get me into screenwriting. Too bad he’s dead to me now.
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August 6th, 2008 at 6:39 pm
Just for the record, I was born in Webster, now live in Illinois, and have never lived in Tennessee. I have, however, lived in North Dakota, and I can’t imagine Tennessee being anywhere near that backward-ass.
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August 6th, 2008 at 6:41 pm
@DiehardChris: Blasphemer! Dare I ask why?
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August 6th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
@Foomey: Kevin had sex with Chris in a very uncomfortable place.
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August 6th, 2008 at 8:38 pm
@Foomey: Rectum? Damn near killed him!
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August 6th, 2008 at 8:51 pm
@Matt & BFD: One of these days I will learn a lesson, and never ask “why”. Men and the “pooper”..what is your fascination? (See…haven’t learned my lesson yet)
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@DiehardChris: Was it “DareDevil”? I wouldn’t blame you, if that was the case. However, we must forgive and forget.(the movie, that is) I did! After all, he did help Jason Mewes get clean.(and become a better actor) Give the poor “Fat Boy” a break…
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August 6th, 2008 at 9:10 pm
@matt: What, like the back of a Volkswagen?
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August 7th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
@socctty: In statistics, a sample size of 30 is considered to be the minimum for it to be somewhat accurate. But I agree, 42 is still on the low side.
/statistics minor
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August 7th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
@GW South: And your margin of error needs, natch.
/once finished the maze on the back of a Captain Crunch box