Another stop on the Slaton bandwagon
Aug 29, 2008 2008 Draft
I’ve been skeptical about the Steve Slaton pick, admittedly off and on. He’s a fast guy who can probably do plenty of interesting things on the field. But neither I (nor many others) considered him a back that would even sniff 200 carries. He played in a gimmick offense in college, and those guys are usually pretty hard to get a read on. And in the preseason I haven’t been encouraged by the occasional 20 yard carry interspersed with lots and lots of 2 and 3 yard gains.
FootballOutsiders wrote an essay in their latest book about running backs, their size, and their speed. I highly recommend at least reading through it at the bookstore (page 458). Or you could, you know, just buy it. Anyway , they found that of all the information gained from the scouting combine, 40-yard dash times were the most relevant when it comes to predicting future NFL success. Of course 40-yard times should be taken in the context of the player’s size. BMI was used to score a player’s mass relative to their height (after all, 205 lbs is different at 5′7″ and 6′3″). They made a formula and found that the average speed score for all drafted running backs is just north of 100.
Slaton didn’t come out too well in their formula’s eyes, sporting a “speed score” of 96.9; Slaton looks sub-par by this standard. They note that Brian Westbrook scored a 91.71 speed score, but there are very, very few Brian Westbrooks (indeed, he is the only notable outlier of the past 8 years) and tons of LaDainian Tomlinsons (111.7), Edge James (117.4), and Steven Jacksons (117.8). For every Westbrook there’s an army of Artose Pinners and Amos Zeroueues.
So given Slaton’s size, his supposed tendency to fumble, his college system, and his suspect yards-per-carry stats during the pre-season, I haven’t been super-stoked about him.
However, the following is encouraging to hear from people who have seen more than their fair share of film:
What I saw of Slaton when he lined up against the Cowboys’ first-team defense last Saturday was a back with surprising power for his size…
Go ahead and read what they have to say about Slaton. They have a few kind words for Duane “Kung Fu Panda” Brown, too. It’s the second section on the page.
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August 29th, 2008 at 8:19 pm
I’ve been horribly confused at the calc done for Slaton. I reverse engineered their numbers (at 197 pounds) and they must have him at a 4.49 40 time. At the combine, he ran a 4.45 time, which puts his Speed Score at 100.5.
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But, I think there’s widespread agreement that he has put on another 10 lbs since joining the team. If you then add that to his listed weight of 197 (weight in the FO book), you get a Speed Score of 105.6, which puts him past guys like Felix Jones and Tashard Choice. That’s not elite, but that’s a solid number.
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August 29th, 2008 at 8:21 pm
@bigfatdrunk: Really, having seen about 10 of his games in college over the last two season, I’d guess that his added weight is closer to 15.
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August 29th, 2008 at 8:52 pm
@Matt: Which puts him at 108.1.
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August 29th, 2008 at 8:53 pm
Oh yeah, he evidently had several 40s in the 4.35 range, too. Of course, with all the extra weight, that might not be as realistic. Still…
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August 29th, 2008 at 9:34 pm
He’s looked pretty damn fast during the preseason. He hits the hole hard, then continues to accelerate. So far, he reminds me of DD in his prime.
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August 30th, 2008 at 1:10 am
40-times from the Combine are used because that’s level playing ground. You can record a time that’s a tenth of a second faster than the combine time, just because of the surface of the area, or the elevation, or what have you.
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The formula is [(WEIGHT X 200) / (40 TIME)^4]. So for Slaton, it would be (197 x 200) / (4.49)^4 is = 39400 / 406.42963201 = 96.94
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August 30th, 2008 at 1:16 am
Oh, talk about drunk… you said they must have him at that time, and that you cited 4.45. You seem to be right, that’s what wikipedia has him at. Hmm. I will e-mail them.
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August 30th, 2008 at 1:28 am
http://www.nfl.com/combine/top-performers doesn’t list Slaton and it cuts off at 4.48. And http://www.nfldraftbible.com/Players/List/2008-Big-Board/138.-STEVE-SLATON-RB-*.html has him at 4.49. But wikipedia and pretty much everywhere else has him at 4.45. I have e-mailed them asking what they are citing.
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August 30th, 2008 at 1:40 am
…also worth noting is that his Combine weight is alternatively shown as 195, which with a 4.45 40-time produces a 99.45 score.
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August 30th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
lies, damned lies… and statistics. I love numbers, but there are plenty of RBs who graded out wonderfully at the combine and had good size/speed score - but had about as much ability to hit the hole as a 13 year old computer geek at a high school dance.
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August 30th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
@grungedave: Thanks, you just made BFD flash back to high school. It’ll be a week before he stops weeping and starts posting again.
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August 30th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
@grungedave: Ahhhh, the voice of wisdom and experience.
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August 30th, 2008 at 4:34 pm
hey, it would be selfish of me not to share my wisdom, experience and “expertise” among you fine folks.