DGDB&D: a Texans blog.

Rocky Marciano

Sep 30, 2008 2008 Draft, 2008 Training Camp, Albert Haynesworth can go to Hell, Curious Coaching, Demarcus Faggins sucks, Self-Referential Stuff

Building off my comments and Steph’s response to them regarding Joe Marciano in this post, here’s some follow-up info in the spirit of intellectual honesty.

First of all, it should be noted that, overall, Marciano’s squads stack up well according to Pro Football Prospects, as they ranked 3rd overall in 2005 and 2007.  In between, however, they ranked 23rd.  But here’s the rub—those overall rankings are skewed because Marciano’s groups do some things very well and some things average-to-not-well.  Using 2007 as an example, here’s what I mean:

DVOA Rank: 3
FG/XP Rank: 7
Net Punt Rk: 17
Punt Ret Rk: 16
Net Kick Rk: 1
Kick Ret Rk: 2
Hidden Rnk: 16

Now, I am actually shocked about the Net Kick rank from last year, because that sure doesn’t pass the eyeball test, but I will take their word for it.  Here’s my point, though—if your kickoff coverage is very good, how can your punt coverage be mediocre (since it will have many, if not all, of the same bodies on it)?  That sounds like a problem with punt coverage philosophy more than a “stuck with the guys he gets” situation.  Likewise, if your kick return is great but your punt return is bad, is that a problem with the returners (in which case, why doesn’t Marciano change PRs?) or a problem with how you teach punt return blocking?¹

Still, I will admit that, in at least some areas, Marciano’s guys do remarkably well.  I don’t particularly like his philosophy as it relates to special teams, and I put the fake punt fiasco squarely on Marciano for failing to drill emergency procedures into the guys, but I can understand why a person would defend him and want to keep him around.  Which segues us into Steph’s comment:

I must disagree with the analysis of Joe Marciano. First of all, he gets little control of who he gets to work with on special teams. Some of his favorite players over the years who were smart special teamers had to go for various reasons. So he has to deal with whatever young players the team is trying to develop, like many ST coaches do. Kubiak hates specialists, and Pittman better get his stuff together.

This is a fair point. It’s not like Marciano is getting much say in the players who are brought in. The counter-argument to that, however, is two-fold. First, the same could be said for most any ST coach, so I don’t know see that as an excuse so much as part of the job description and there are guys who seem to be better at playing the hands they are dealt. Second, Joe gets to assemble the ST squad from all but about 10 or so on the roster, so he has say in how those squads are assembled and having Petey in a position to affect the outcome of a single play should always, always, ALWAYS be a no-no.

Marciano’s special team units usually by far outperform the rest of the team. His players love playing for him and play hard for him. His worst ST year was Kubiak’s first year when Kubiak didn’t want designated return guys and they had an awful experiment trying to put different guys back there. His ST units have won far more games for the team than have cost the team in general.

As shown above, this is both correct and incorrect as a blanket statement. His kick return/kickoff crew last year was probably the best single unit on the team, but I would definitely argue that the passing game was better than the punt return/coverage unit.

Regarding whether the players like him and play hard, that is definitely true, though playing hard when you are assembled incorrectly as a unit and/or when you lack the talent to play well (see, e.g., Faggins, DeMarcus) only means so much. Still, point taken.

As for “his worst year,” the punt return game for the Texans in 2006 actually ranked 6th, but the rest of the ST play was bad.

I don’t think he has been blessed with good return men. I really think he develops him.

Have to disagree rather strongly here. He didn’t develop Jermaine Lewis, he was blessed with him. He may or may not have developed Jerome Mathis, but it should be somewhat telling that Mathis was best as a rookie (when he’d had the least experience with Joe) and got progressively worse. (Admittedly, injuries played a huge part in this, but I’m just pointing out that developing a guy into a Pro Bowl returner probably takes more than one training camp or else you’d do it all the time.) And Marciano fell backward in Andre Davis, giving him the gig when Joe’s guy Jacoby Jones lost the job. Davis was already a veteran and stepped into the return role quickly because he has world class speed and good hands.

IIRC, he has sent three rookies to the Pro Bowl as returners, including his previous teams.

I think you are right. I’ll grant you that his kick teams are good. Punt teams, still not good.

Last Sunday was an obvious goon, but as for the returns, JAX has a good return team. The Texans got the worst of that.

According to Football Prospectus, J’ville was around league average in both punt and kick returns last year. They might have improved slightly this year, but it’s not like Josh Cribbs and Devin Hester are taking turns back there.

In the end, like I said, I can at least understand the argument for keeping him and I’m not pissed that he’s still around.  I just don’t want people acting like it wouldn’t be possible to improve the special teams play or the special teams coach.

¹ Actually, with last year’s team, there’s a third possible explanation—Andre Davis made everyone on kick returns look better because he was ungodly. But Marciano didn’t develop him so much as fall luckily into him. But I digress.

Kickoff - “Late and Incompetent” Edition

Sep 30, 2008 H/T Eric, Kickoff

So, I had a doctor’s appointment today.  Two hours in the waiting room to see the dude, and another hour plus there.  Four hours of my life gone, and I have a shitload of real work and…AND…today is my beautiful daughter’s second birthday.  She is a total papa’s girl, too

NO MORE!: I never want to see the words “Inside Slant” and the Texans in the same article again.  Unless, we make the other team’s defensive coordinator look as stupid as Richard Smith, I mean.

Vote early, vote often: Steve Slaton for President!  Or somethin’.

14 wounds: Amazing and amazingly sad story all at once.

Finally, end with the hate: Duane Brown Says is dominating our fantasy football league.  Considering how crappy his teams normally are, I’m just embarrassed.  Next week, I hope to at least update my lineup.  Stupid four hour trip from Houston….

The Problem With Richard Smith, Or, Perhaps More Accurately, Referendum On Coaching Incompetence

Sep 30, 2008 2008 Season, Chocodiles, Curious Coaching, DeMeco Ryans, Hi Steve!, Kevin Bentley, Morlon Greenwood, Ranting, Super Mario

Let me just start by saying that, by and large, I agree with Tim and Chris’s points on the game.  There were lots of positives (for the offense) and lots of negative (for the defense and special teams).  In fact, this was one of those games that I didn’t really feel the need to write a recap of, since the goods and the bads were so glaringly obvious.

But, still, my job (as it were) here is to talk about the Houston Texans (as well as make inappropriate remarks about the team and people associated with it).  So rather than do a traditional recap, let’s hit some big picture points.

First, if I were the GM of this team, Richard Smith would not be receiving paychecks from me.  And I don’t just mean going forward, as he should have and would have been fired a long time ago.  After all, the problems are manifold and obvious–no cohesive philosophy, no idea how to use his assets, no clue how or when to blitz, no attempt to adjust when another team is going the Tecmo Bowl route and burning you with the same exact play over and over and over and over, and nothing to suggest that his charges are this close to turning the corner and becoming markedly better.  We’ve spent numerous first- and second-round draft picks on defense, especially the front seven, yet we remain incapable of getting to the QB before the ball is thrown or creating turnovers or (on many days) even tackling with any regularity.  That’s ALL on Richard Smith.

Despite cries for his head after last year, Smith got a free pass to come back for another 16 games because (a) Mario became dominant in 2007 and (b) there were so many injuries that it somehow seemed unfair (to everyone but me, I guess) to fire him when he was shorthanded.  Unfortunately, last year’s MASH unit was actually better, at least to the naked eye, than this year’s healthy squad has been.  If Smith were any kind of DC, doing better this year than last should have been the easiest assignment of his tenure.  Instead, everyone except Mario (yes, even DeMeco) seems to have stagnated or regressed in 2008.

Sunday’s game was a snapshot of the entire Richard Smith experience—players out of position, inexplicable defensive calls in tight situations, defensive backs who looked lost and exposed.  Even worse, one got the feeling that absolutely none of those problems was going to go away until Smith himself went away.  So, while I have railed against Smith in this space for over a year, I feel like it’s time to turn it up a bit.  In that vein, “FIRE RICHARD SMITH” is now the official motto of DGDB&D 2008.  I realize that I have no pull and a relatively limited audience, but I figure saying it a lot and trying to get others to spread the message absolutely cannot hurt our cause.  Say it loud, say it often, and say it to anyone who will listen.

Moving on…

As bad as Smith’s squad was Sunday, Joe Marciano’s was even worse.  And I’m not just talking about their inability to recognize that a team cannot punt when there is no punter lined up behind the center, though that was certainly the most egregious example.  But, yeah, it was worse than that.  All day long, our returners made horrible decisions and/or did nothing while our coverage teams allowed Jacksonville’s return men to get huge chunks of yardage on seemingly every kick.  In fact, thus far in 2008, on Kevin Bentley has really been a consistent contributor on special teams.

Like Richard Smith, Marciano probably should have been gone a while ago.  However, because he’s been blessed to have some very, very good return men, as well as the occasional solid cover guy, he’s been able to keep his job.  Nevermind that, as a Texans fan, you have reached a point where you just expect the other team to be starting somewhere past their own 25 on every single possession.  Hopefully, for my own sanity as well as the future success of your Houston Texans, Sunday’s game was the beginning of the end of the Marciano era.  If not, here’s to hoping that Kevin Bentley becomes the next Eugene Seale.

Thirdly, can someone please tell me what the heck is going on between Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson?  Because I honestly cannot come up with any sort of answer that makes sense.  Some have suggested that maybe Andre’s injury has changed his route running or made him slower, but it seems like the passes to Schaub are behind Andre rather than out in front.  Others have suggested that they are just not clicking because they didn’t get to play together very much in the second half of last season, but they had never played together before last season and they started the year firing on all cylinders.  Like I said…I don’t get it.

What I DO get, however, is that our offense on Sunday was on fire and looked like the team from early 2007 that was putting up points fast and often.  And that’s without Andre being involved even half as much as you would have assumed.  If/when he and Matt get back on the same page, the Texans should be able to score against just about anyone.  Judging by the success Denver had (prior to the KC game), a high-powered offense combined with a non-tackling defense can still win you more than it loses you, at least until playoff time rolls around.  Maybe, for now, we need to approach the game like those old Colts and Rams teams did—we are going to put up 35 or more most weeks and assume that even our sub-par defense can stop you a couple of times.  Scoreboard, holmes.

Finally, a couple quick thoughts on some players:

Steve Slaton is your running back for the foreseeable future.  That TD pass he caught was the product of a route that no previous Texans RB could have done.  In the modern, pass-happy NFL, having a back who can split out wide and blow by a corner is a luxury and it’s one that we now possess.  This is very, very happy news.

Morlon Greenwood, what has happened to you?  Consider this my official mea culpa: I was wrong on Morlon in 2008 and it’s time to replace him with…

Kevin Bentley.  Gotta love what you’ve seen from LVJ so far.  He’s playing fantastic on special teams, he’s one of the few guys on the team who has shown a willingness to hit, wrap up, and tackle, and he even looked solid playing in place of DeMeco for a few snaps Sunday.  So, I ask ya, is there any reason not to assume that he would be an upgrade over Greenwood or Zac “I’m Way Too Small To Play SLB” Diles?  I think not.

Dear Jacques Reeves, TURN AROUND AND FIND THE BALL EVERY NOW AND THEN.  Signed, Anyone With Two Ounces Of Common Sense.

Last, but certainly not least, a kudos to the entire offense line (but, especially, Duane Brown) on Sunday.  Nicely done, gentlemen.  I see that you’ve realized that keeping Matt upright makes you look good and makes the whole team better.  Let’s continue that approach against the Colts in what is certain to be an absolutely rocking Reliant Stadium this week.

Secondary issues are pri…wait a minute. Have I said this before?

Sep 29, 2008 Fire Richard Smith, Secondary issues are primary, What the fuck?, Will Demps makes love to the...ladies?

With a little luck, this could’ve been a good thing.  Nope, I don’t wish that CC Brown would break his arm, considering it seems to be the only way he can tackle.  But I was hoping that it might be a Wally Pipp/Lou Gehrig kinda moment.  Alas, Durga’s still a prick to us Texans’ fans as Brandon Harrison may have been lost for the year during the BE-SF game.

As much as CC gives on the field, the fact is that both he and Smoove Will are both a step or two slow.  Putting Harrison out there would’ve been a tremendous boost to our overall team speed.  Perhaps, just perhaps, this is Dominique Barber’s chance to shine, but he wasn’t considered a speed demon coming out in the draft this year.  And it’ll either be Barber or Nick Ferguson.  So, you know, we’re still slow.

Oh, and you said you wanted more good news?  To take CC’s spot on the roster, we signed FB Cecil Sapp.

Fuck.

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’m off to find the Bitchephant.  I could use that bit of love tonight.

(h/ts to Jersey Bill and Eric, but I’d also been thinking about this post since about noon.  Lousy day job…)

Kickoff - “World’s Most Obvious Fake Punt” Edition

Sep 29, 2008 2008 Season, H/T Eric, Kickoff

News and notes as we continue to yell “time out” at the television.

My Rapid Reaction?  Fucking tackle!!!! Paul Kuharsky offers his “rapid reaction” to the game. He seems to still buy into the “no-line” cliche.

Fingers crossed.  BFD and I have railed against Richard Smith since the inception of this blog (in fact, it was one of the reasons I started it), so it pleases me to see other people running with the idea.

Finally.  I got nothin’ else.  Hope to have my thoughts on the game up some time before the end of the workday.

Breaking News: Inactives

Sep 28, 2008 2008 Season, H/T Eric

Tim Bulman and Brandon Harrison are among the inactives for the Texans today, while Justin Durant and (even more importantly) Reggie Nelson will not play for the Jags.

Programming Note

Sep 28, 2008 Bad Idea Jeans, Fantasy Geeks, Self-Referential Stuff

Yours truly will be a guest briefly on NBCSports.com’s Fantasy Fix with Gregg Rosenthal and Tiffany Simons.  I’ll be talking about today’s game and, I suppose, pimping Steve Slaton and trying to hide my fears about the defense.  You can listen here.  I should be on around 10:30 CST.

(BFD was also invited to participate, but he thinks he’s too good.  Or he’s traveling.  One of those answers for sure.)

A Conversation I Had Twelve Minutes Ago

Sep 26, 2008 Awfulness, Fuck the Cowboys, Self-Referential Stuff, Shameless begging, You'd like to think I was joking

Bum: (as I walk past the bus stop) S’cuse me, sir.

Me: What’s up?

Bum:  Sir, I’m from Texas and I am trying to get back home.  Could you spare some money?  Anything you have, sir, I’d appreciate it.

Me:  (reaching for wallet) Texas, huh?  You a Cowboys fan?

Bum: Yessir! Love the Cowboys!

Me:  (pushing wallet back into pocket)  Sorry, man.  I don’t have any cash.

18 Wheels of Meat Justice

Sep 26, 2008 Fluff

Courtesy of Tman, here are the 10 Best Tailgating Vehicles.

And if all of you would like to chip in and get this for me, I would be cool with that.

Recycling

Sep 26, 2008 2008 Season, Predictions Guaranteed To Go Wrong, Self-Referential Stuff

I’ve got nothing new for an intro this week, so in honor of Trent Green’s return to starting, let’s re-run an oldie-but-goodie.

10/07/07

12:01 PM
Travis Johnson’s Brain: You know…I have a lot of respect for Trent Green. I mean, it’s not just any ol’ white boy that can throw like a girl and still be able to make an NFL career. That’s impressive. Do yo’ thing, whitey.

Legs: Did we stretch enough? I dunno. Damned airconditioned dome, keeping us cold all the time. This is stupid.

Eyes: Yo, our offensive is looking pretty good. Matty is spreading the ball around. OH SHIT!!! Did you see that pass to Andre?!? Hells yeah!

Mouth: LET’S GO, OFFENSE! PUNCH THIS IN!

12:18 PM
Brain: Okay. Let’s do this. 7-3, baby. Let’s get a three and out!

Mouth: LET’S GO, DEFENSE! THREE-AND-OUT, BABY!

Eyes: End around! Run, motherfucker, run!

Legs: Let’s go!

Eyes: FUMBLE! No, wait, he’s running the other direction.

Legs: Oh, hell yeah. Ted Ginn ain’t shit! We’re gonna catch him. This is gonna be some highlight reel shit right her–

Trent Green’s Head: BONZAI!!!!!!!

Travis Johnson’s Right Knee: OW!!! WHAT THE FUCK WAS THAT!?!? JESUS CHRIST, THAT HURT!!! DID WE JUST TRIP OVER A GARDEN GNOME AGAIN?!

Eyes: We’re seeing double here. Hold on. Okay…that was…OH, HELL NO! That was the motherfucking quarterback!!!

Brain: Who the fuck does he think he is?! Nobody hits motherfucking Travis Johnson like that! Nobody!! We should tell him that, too!

Legs: C’mon, we’re heading to the bench.

Right Knee: (with each step) Ow. Ow. Ow. Ow.

Brain: Go on, mouth. Tell him what’s up!

Right Hand: (points) I’ll help you.

Mouth: Motherfucker! Don’t ever motherfucking hit me like that again in your motherfucking life or I will break your motherfucking ass in half, you punk bitch motherfucker! I ain’t even play–

Travis Johnson’s Eyes: I think he’s dead.

Legs: That don’t mean the mouth is wrong. Let’s keep moving, though.

Right Knee: Ow. Ow. Ow. Ow. What’s that fucking clicking sound? Ow.

12:20 PM
Right Knee: You know what, Brain?

Brain: What?

Right Knee: I don’t have so much respect for Trent Green anymore.

Brain: Nah, me neither.

Right Knee: In fact… you know what… FUCK Trent Green!

Brain: Yeah! He’s like… um… scared. Like a, uh, a fucking…SCARECROW! Like some Wizard of Odds, shit. Scarecrow motherfucker. Get the wizard to give you some courage and shit!

Right Knee: I think it was the Lion who wanted courage.

Brain: Which one of us got the B- in book readin’ at Florida State, you gimpy bitch? Besides, that don’t make sense. Lions are brave motherfuckers. Kings of the jungle book and shit. Scarecrows is scared, obviously.

Right Knee: But they are supposed to scare the crows. Ah, fuck it. Nevermind.

Brain: That’s right! Can’t NOBODY step to this knowledge.

3:45 PM
Mouth: The bottom line is, it was a malicious hit. It was uncalled for.

Brain: Tell ‘em that scarecrow shit I came up with!

Mouth: He’s like the scarecrow. He wants to get courage while I wasn’t looking, and hit me in my knee instead of trying to hit me in my head.

Brain: Yeah!

Eyes: People seem confused by that. Are you sure it was the scarecrow?

Brain: They just can’t keep up with my intellect, fool. Now, listen mouth. Give them something about how the hit was dirty and that nobody likes dirty hits. Maybe throw some religion in there, just so no one thinks you are a jerk.

Mouth: God don’t like ugly, you know what I mean?

Brain: Perfect!

*************************

Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 27-20

Week 4 Picks:

Atlanta v. Carolina. In 2006, Jerious Norwood average 6 YPC on 99 carries.  In 2007, he had 6 YPC on 103 carries.  He doubled his catches from ‘06 to ‘07 as well.  So what does the team do?  They spend an asston of money on Michael Turner.  Now, granted, Turner has done well, but if you are Norwood, don’t you have to wonder who the fuck you pissed off?  I mean, what’s a brotha got to do to get his chance to start?  Pick: Carolina

Cleveland v. Cincinnati.
Pick: Cincinnati.

JUGGERNAUT v. Jacksonville.  For as long as I have been doing these picks, I have never picked against the Texans.  If ever there was a time to do so, it would be right now.  But that’s not how I roll, holmes.  Pick: Houston.  Bonus Pick: Fred Bennett gets an INT off Silky Garrard.

Denver v. Kansas City.  One August when I still lived in KC, bigwood25 and I went to Denver.  Three things happened there:  1. I ignored the three beer maximum at the Coors tour and had roughly nine (not an exaggeration).  Before 11am.  And I continued drinking for the next 14 hours.  2.  I made out with a hot chick at a bar but fumbled at the 1 and blew a sure hookup.  My drunkeness certainly played into this failure.  3. I attempted to drive from Denver to Shawnee (roughly 45 minutes away) at 3AM, still stinking drunk.  We made three full laps around the city before I found my exit.  Good times.  Pick: Denver.

San Francisco v. New Orleans.  As far as cities go, is this Sodom playing Gomorrha?  Certainly feels like it.  Pick: New Orleans.

Arizona v. New York Jets.  I don’t know why, but Kurt Warner strikes me as the kind of guy who would pray for you if you told him you fudged on your taxes, but who lets his wife pound his ass with a strap-on and sees nothing wrong with this because she’s a she and not a he.  I have no idea what I am talking about.  Pick: Arizona.

Green Bay v. Tampa Bay.  More lame:  Calling your city that barely touches an arm of a lake (Great or not) a Bay or calling your team Tampa BAY when the city isn’t even named after said inlet?  Does it really matter?  Can I really do three straight questions?  How about four?  Pick: Green Bay?

Minnesota v. Tennessee.  Am I the only one who wishes this was still the Tarvaris Jackson/Vince Young shootout it was supposed to be when the season started?  I am all about things making my life easier and that game would have written its own punchlines.  Pick: Minnesota.

San Diego v. Oakland.  I love Darren Sproles.  As a general rule, I am a huge fan of any NFL player shorter than I am.  Sproles brings that number to somewhere around one.  I can’t think of any way San Diego loses this one, so I am picking against them.  How’s THAT for logical? Pick: Oakland.

Buffalo v. St. Louis.  Had this been the early game, where I could have made it back at a reasonable hour, bigwood and I might have made the day trip like I did last weekend to Nashville.  Not like we would have had to worry about tickets; I’m pretty sure the scalpers give you seats plus $10 when you ask.  If they don’t die of a heart attack first, that is.  Pick: Buffalo.

Washington v. Dallas.  Over/under on how far into the game we get before Marion Barber tries to see if he can put the Brandon Jacobs treatment on LaRon Landry?  I’m going 4 minutes.  (Spoiler alert: he can’t.)  Pick: Washington.

Philadelphia v. Chicago.  I love Philly cheese steaks.  I loathe Chicago-style pizza AND Chicago-style hotdogs.  Fuck it, that seems like good enough reasoning for this post.  Pick: Philadelphia.

Baltimore v. Pittsburgh.  Mendenhall might get 100 yards and he might get 20.  Neither result would surprise me.  A B’more win, however, would.  (I stand by the claim that the Steelers are currently the best team in the AFC.)  Pick: Pittsburgh.

Kickoff - “Cuz it’s Friday, you ain’t got no job, and you ain’t got shit to do!” Edition

Sep 26, 2008 2008 Season, Boobies, Kickoff

News and notes while we all wish we didn’t have to work for a living.  (Speaking of, pretty light day at the J-O-B today, so I am hoping to turn this into a Friday postgasm, with at least three more posts (possibly more).  No promises until I see how the morning shakes out, but signs are looking good right now.)

You’d think some of you losers would listen to my undefeated advice. Another week, another fantasy podcast with Diehard Chris.  Other than my voice—”Mickey Mouse on helium,” I believe BFD called it—there is some good stuff in there.  I think we are batting about .500 on our sleepers and well over .800 on our sit starts.  (Note: I haven’t checked those numbers to be totally sure, but I know we’re doing well.)  Give it a listen.

Wait…”resurgent?” Standard nfl.com game preview.  Blah blah “need first win” blah.  Whatever.  What I want to know is how squeaking past a struggling Colts team when both of you were supposed to be powerhouses (according the Peter Kings of the world) makes you “resurgent.”

Wow.  Just, wow.  The worst, oddest, and most grammatically-confusing Texans discussion ever.  I don’t even know where to start, so I’ll just point out that the first post calls Matt Schaub a “wanksta.”

Finally.  If these ladies (or their friends) would like to make an appearance at the BRB tailgate on October 19th, I don’t think anyone would protest.

Kickoff - The “OH GOD NOT THE GROIN!” Edition

Sep 25, 2008 2008 Season, H/T Eric, Kickoff

I suck: I hope to finish my raw notes on the BE-SF game tonight.  I still can’t believe we are coached by professionals, and I just made it to the 4th quarter for review.  The pic above is from me to Richard Smith.

OK, it’s taken me an hour to just get this far, so here’s a big fat link dump courtesy Eric:

Unlike QB Garrard, Del Rio ain’t taking the Texans “lightly.”

Fox Sports previews this Sundays match-up:

From the mothership, conference call with the Jags.

Finally, Texans Helping Texans.

Random Thoughts with Matt

Sep 24, 2008 2008 Season, Random Thoughts with Matt

Two quick questions, both related to the Titans game:

1. If that last possession ends in a TD for us rather than them, making the final score 24-19, are we as pessimistic about the whole thing?

2. Assuming a 24-19 finish, are people pinning the whole loss on Kubiak for not kicking (despite it being statistically correct) rather than on Matt Schaub?

DGDB&D Guest Post feat. Vega

Sep 24, 2008 Conventional Wisdom Can Blow Me, Curious Coaching, Gary Kubiak might be high, Guest Posts, I really dig my readers, I was told there would be no math

Because he was the only other person besides myself that I saw arguing that Kubiak’s fourth-down plays were statistically correct, I asked math dork guru Vega to run the numbers for a guest post.  Enjoy.

70% of Statistics are Made Up on the Spot
by: Vega

Last week, Gary Kubiak went for it on fourth down six times in the game against the BE-SF’s. SIX!! Who the fuck does that?! Did he have a meth-contact high? Probably. But I think that accounts more for his play calling and challenges than it did for his fourth down decisions.

Kubiak actually played the percentages pretty well on those situations. Yeah, I know we still lost. Yeah, I know we only made 2 of those 6 (33%). But that’s the thing about percentages. There’s always that chance you’ll get fucked. The idea is to increase the probability that you fuck someone else, because we all know it’s better to fuck than be fucked. [Ed. note: Not according to Foomey.] Simply put, that’s really the coach’s only job.

We’ve all heard about the fact that coaches are as a whole more conservative on 4^th down than they statistically should be, but what does that really mean? The original line of thinking on fourth down conversions vs. field goals comes from this paper from Economics Professor David Romer from the University of Cal–Berkley. He used economic models of expected returns to see if coaches were really maximizing their probability of winning. If you’re not into busting your brain on math with no numbers, let me give you the super simplified version.

Romer starts by assigning a value to field position. Basically, he assigns expected points based on the long term expected return of having first and ten from every yard line minus the value of where you would leave your opponent. For example, having first and ten from your own one is worth -1.6 points because you’re unlikely to score many points, but you’re likely to leave your opponent with good field position.

He then estimated the value of kicks at every point on the field by taking the expected point return on a field goal minus the value of average field position on the ensuing kickoff. For punts he took the value of the average field position of where you would leave your opponent. Finally, he looked at fourth down conversion probabilities for 4^th and 1, 4^th and 2, all the way to 4^th and 10, at every yard line (technically he used 3^rd down stats because there wasn’t enough data on 4^th downs, but it works pretty well).

When the dust settled, Romer had developed a method where you can look at fourth and whatever from any point on the field and determine your expected point return by either going for it or kicking. He was then nice enough to plot this on a chart so you can just look at it and see what you should do (statistically speaking). Easy peasy, Japanesy.

Now let’s take a look at the six occasions where Kubiak went for it.

* Within standard error, so there is no definitive answer, but it is on the “Go for it” side.

So it looks like with the exception of the last two, Kubiak made the statistically rational decision four out of six times. Ah, if only it were that simple.

For the sake of simplicity, the study was done with data independent of game situations. In other words, it didn’t take into consideration the score, time left on the clock, quality of the teams, etc. So let’s look at each of these a little bit closer.

· 4^th and 1 from Tenn 11; 9:58 2^nd Q: Romer says to go for it. At this point, there was plenty of time left in the game so we can take Romer’s recommendation at face value. Good call.

· 4^th and 4 from Tenn 10; 5:20 3^rd Q: This one is close. According to Romer, when a call is right on the boundary, the team should be fairly indifferent to going for it vs. kicking, so you should really play the game situation. I can see the argument against Kubiak as a FG would have made the score 24-15 with over a quarter left to play. Remember that if we kick the FG, Tenn probably ends up with the ball at the 27, so we in essence reduce our probability of getting the ball back with the same score. Still, considering Tennessee had started going with the “let’s just not fuck up” game plan and we would leave them field position worth about -1, so we stand a good chance of getting the ball back with good field position. Hold on… I have a headache… All in all, both the score and the game situation slightly lean towards going for it, so I say go for it.

· 4^th and 3 from Tenn 17; 9:11 4^th Q: Again, this one is close so we need to consider the game situation. Down twelve with 9 minutes left. Kick a FG and we need another FG and a TD to win. If we miss, we need two TDs. The argument for conservatism is a little stronger here as the game situation starts to become more important than the statistical analysis. The problem here though is that we had 2^nd and 3. We ran it left for two yards on second down and then threw to Slaton in the flat on 3^rd for a loss of two. Way to push the ball down field guys.

· 4^th and 2 from Tenn 2; 7:12 4^th Q: Ok, this one is a no brainer. The stats say go and the game situation says go. That said, I’d like to send a big “Fuck You” to Kubes on the play calling again. Let’s look at the prior plays.

o 1^st and 4 from the 4: Run Slaton right end for three yards.

o 2^nd and 1 from the 1: Incomplete pass to a well covered Apostrophe. That’s a timing route that wasn’t even close. With that coverage, Schaub should have either floated one to the corner or looked for another receiver. That’s fucking crazy talk!

o 3^rd and 1 from the 1: Pass to Kevin Walter for -1 yard. Yeah, because when I have one yard to go against a super aggressive defense, I don’t even like to look at the endzone.

o 4^th and 2 from the 2: Run Slaton up the middle against the strength of the defense. Look, Slaton had a great game, but most of that success was to the left and to a lesser extent to the right; NOT up the middle where our Oline was getting dominated. Throughout the game, Slaton had one rush up the middle that gained more than one yard and that was to close out the first half.

· 4^th and 10 from Tenn 48; 4:26 4^th Q: Romer says kick, but I think we’ve gotten to that point in the game where you’re willing to take on more risk because of the game situation. Down 12 with less than five minutes left, you have to go for it. Again though, the big problem here is if you look at the prior downs. 1^st, 2^nd, and 3^rd downs were incompletions.

· 4^th and 10 from Tenn 48; 1:17 4^th Q: Same as before. Stats say kick, but who gives a fuck. You HAVE to go for this. The pick was not really Schaub’s fault as Vanden Bosch was given the red carpet treatment on his way to Schaub’s knee. But again, we had 2^nd and 3 from the 4 and ran at Haynesworth and VB. We then took a sack on third down to put ourselves in this spot.

To sum this all up, it doesn’t look like we made the bad decision to go for it on fourth down on these plays, but where we fucked up was in putting ourselves in too many fourth downs. This came from weak play calling and poor execution. So while some may say that one of our problems last week came from being too aggressive on fourth down, I would argue that we weren’t aggressive enough on first second and third downs and ended up in too many fourth down situations.

Let me leave you with this.

We were first and goal from inside the 10 three times, and first and 10 from the 11 once more. Three of those times we ended up with a fourth down situation. That’s why we lost the game.

Kickoff - “Snapshots From Hell” Edition

Sep 24, 2008 2008 Season, Babyeating-Sisterfuckers, Inanity, Kickoff, Vince Young can't read this post

Well, I finally got the pictures uploaded and finally have enough free time to put together this post, so here’s my Sunday trip to Nashville and back in picture form.  (Also, “Snapshots From Hell” is likely to be the title of my autobiography.)

Background:  Tim emailed Thursday and said, basically, “hey, I have an extra ticket to Sunday’s game–you interested?”  Of course I was.  However, knowing Tim and his friends, the only way meeting up would work would be if I was there by about 9:30 AM, because they would be drinking shortly after and I’d never find them.  So, I was up at 3:30 and out the door at 4:00AM.  I am dedicated (and slightly nuts) if nothing else.

Early morning, about twenty minutes from Memphis.  Do you have any idea how hard it is to take a low-light picture at 85 MPH while you are driving?  Of course you don’t because no one else is that dumb/lame.

Memphis, TN.  AKA The One Place In Tennessee I Would Ever Live.  Seriously, if you’ve never been to Memphis, you are missing out.  And if you ever go and don’t eat at Cozy Corner, you are a heathen and we can’t be friends. (Not because you are a heathen, mind you…I like heathens.  But because you have suspect taste.)

I’m a dork.

Everyone always says “It’s so pretty to drive through Tennessee.  MAYBE that would be true in the late Fall, but this is just straight-ass highway with some trees on the side.  That’s not scenery, goddamnit.

I took this picture to show how fast I was going and then, after I was home, realized that I’d slowed down before I took it.  I generally had the cruise at 85.  With only one stop coming home, I made it from Nashville to Little Rock in 4:25.  Mapquest says it should be 5:22.  I rule.

Nashville: Like A Real City, But Methier!

If you close your eyes and listen very carefully, you can hear Vince Young’s career falling apart.

If you are a Titans fan tailgating under a Notre Dame canopy, there is zero chance that you and I can be friends.  There’s also a 100% chance that I made some comments about your mother being a service animal for drunken sailors.

I am a surreptitious-photo-taking ninja.  Which is good, because ol’ Toothless Joe here would probably have been frightened by my new fangled digital technology and would have beaten me to death.  (In case you are wondering why I took the photo, I suspected this to be Tman.)

You’ve heard of the Bridge To Nowhere?  This is the Bridge To Anywhere Other Than Nashville.

This is Titan Man.  His superpowers include working the crowd into a speed-addled frenzy and making his father wish he’d pulled out.

You stay classy, Nashville.

I am fully in favor of a Federal law that would prohibit wearing replica jerseys of players no longer on the team unless that player is a retired franchise legend.  The punishment for violation of such law should be fisting by Michael Clarke Duncan.

Some folk’ll never eat a skunk
But then again, some folk’ll…
Like Cletus the slack-jawed yokel.
Most folk’ll never lose a toe
And then again, some folk’ll…
Like Cletus the slack-jawed yokel.

Quick, guess how the ensuing play turned out.

Contrary to rumor, Mario was actually at the game.

If this is John McClain—and I still claim it is—it should be noted that he was wearing a Titans polo.

It wasn’t all bad.

VY Fan Club Seating.

Overheard as this giant inflatable road kill sauntered onto the field:  “Is there a person in that or is it a robot?” “I’m not sure.  Probably not a person in there, though.” “Yeah, how would he breathe?”  (I swear to God, I’m not making this up.)

Ticket to the game? Free.  Gas money to get there? $75.  Seeing someone misspell the name of his own state?  Priceless.

I also have a picture of someone purported to be “Scott,” but I need to block out the face before I can post it.  I’m reasonably sure, however, that it was really an actor hired by Tim to play “Scott.”  The performance was pretty convincing, though there was not enough professed love of Shane Boyd, but it was the driving loafers that gave him away.  From Kentucky, my ass!

In the end, aside from the score, I had a great time.  Tim and his dad are two of the funniest SOBs you can hang around and both the actor fellow and the other Texans fan in the group were stand-up dudes.  The Cowboys fan in the Titans visor who went with us, however?  Well, someone just didn’t love him enough as a child, I suppose.  Then again, he also accused me of having journalistic integrity, so maybe he was just dropped on his head early on.  Dunno.

We get emails

Sep 24, 2008 Gary Kubiak might be high, Guest Posts, I really dig my readers

Reader and occasional guest-poster Will “The Thrill” offers a couple interesting points.

Oh yeah, we got the funk, gotta have that funk…..

What the fuck? Over!

I’ve never been so glad to not only miss getting to watch my favorite team, but also forgetting to DVR it.  I was at the Fall Nationals in Dallas this weekend, so I was spared being pissed off by seeing how shitty the Texans played in addition to being pissed off at a small piece of trash that entered the fuel system of our race car, ending our day in the second round in what would have been a cake walk to the final.  Without further ado, here’s some outside looking in.

Remember when I mentioned one of the things that could bite us this year was the “funk” we got into last year in games like Atlanta, Tenn, SD, etc.? That’s the team that has showed up.  Kinda like the June 2008 Astros.  Or playoff Rockets.  For some reason, Houston sports teams are either all or nothing.  They might show up in Jax and kick the shit out of them.

All Houston-conspiracy, something-in-the-water theories aside, it’s starting to look like we have a coaching problem—or multiple coaching problems—because every single player, Steve Slaton aside, is showing their worst.  Oh yeah, Demeco and Mario too.  [Ed. note: Be fair...Mario was a singular monster in Pittsburgh.]

My faith in Kubiak is diminishing.  He’s one of the worst in the league on challenges.  I’m starting to get the feeling he’s just not head coach material.  Some guys can be a great coordinator, but not the fearless leader.

Could it be that Ray Rhoades is a detriment to our secondary?  Bennett looks like shit.  Demps looks like shit.  CC Brown looks like shit.  Reeves looks like shit.  See a trend here?  These guys didn’t look this bad last year.  They wasn’t great, but not this bad.

0-2 is the count to Schaub.  If Schaub opens the first half against Jacksonville like he has played the rest of the year, Rosie will be throwing more passes on the sideline.  Regardless of talent, upside, draft picks, etc., the one thing Sage always seems to have is poise and confidence under center.  We don’t have that with Schaub right now.  Hopefully something turns the light on for him, or I’m going to have to buy another jersey to wear to the games.

We got to have someone step up and make some plays.

“The Thrill”

Now, I am with Lee and a couple others in the “what has Sage done” camp, but I think the points about Kubiak and Rhodes are possibly valid.  Thoughts?

Oh…yeah…I suppose I should mention that I always reserve the right to run insightful emails as well as really really dumb shit.  So consider yourself notified and/or warned.

Kickoff “Schaub, Stupidity, Suggestions, and Snatch” Edition

Sep 23, 2008 Boobies, Drunky Drunkerton, H/T Eric, Kickoff

In other news, Gary Kubiak hates Sage Rosenfels. According to Coach K, Matt Schaub is still the starter for your Houston JUGGERNAUT. Because, you know, a 50.3 rating and performance so poor that ten different people have asked me what the hell is wrong with Schaub are grounds for keeping your job.

Damn.  Merrill Hoge might be retarded.  And, by “might be,” I mean “is definitely.”  But I still liked him when he was ripping on VY and standing by his comments.  Now it seems he’s explaining himself. He doesn’t HATE Vince; it’s just Hoge’s job to be critical of players and he’s sorry if he offended anyone.  OK.  Whatever.  Wuss.

I’m sort of speculating.  David Thornton teased Kerry Collins about how slow he looks when running the football.  Collins then told Thornton to shut his black mouth and bring him a beer.  (Note to Titans fans: No, the drunk racist jokes never get old.)

Finally.

I’m done with Sergio / He treats me like a rag doll

Sep 23, 2008 2008 Season, Fantasy Geeks

I am in three fantasy football leagues.  Because I didn’t want to have to root for any BESFs while I was at the game, I benched all my Tennessee players and the Tennessee defense.

Or, at least I thought I did.  In one league, I forgot to sit Cortland Finnegan.  I went 2-1 this week.  Care to guess which league I took the L in?

Here are the updated standings for God’s Own Fantasy League (through week 3):

Raw Notes with bfd:@BE-SFs

Sep 22, 2008 2008 Season, Raw Notes with bfd

My hope, time permitting, is to make this a regular thing.  These are my raw thoughts wacthing the game.  Have at it.

* reeves good break on the pick
* brown used on the first haynesworth sack
* bentley is short, fat, and quick
* fucking diles.  where tf is your containment?
* yay mario in coverage!!!  (not)
* kalu getting a shitload of pt
* okam needs more strength.  too easily moved.
* fucking diles.
* zgonina is the waste of a roster spot.
* brown smoked by kvb on the griffin pick.
* why is dreesen doing anything but blocking, especially down the field.
* helluva pick by the texas ex.
* reeves looks good!
* cc blitzing a lot.
* slaton = wow.
* walter is your 2nd best receiver.  why dre davis over him?
* WTF is going on between AJ and Schaub?
* No offsides on KVB??????
* where is the pass rush?
* zgonina is shit.
* okam and okoye is tough.  they both need more strength.
* bulman is slow.
* diles is not a starting quality lb.  he can’t cover and he’s not strong enough on the run.
* anybody with elvis hair should be shot on sight.
* diles cannot cover.  did I already say that?
* AJ looks…slow.
* How can Schaub throw a perfect pass - absolutely beautifully in one moment - and miss by 5 yards the next.
* Drive in early 2Q has some nice play action.
* How was that not a roughing penalty, and how were we not prepared to make the next play call???
* Love.  Steve.  Slaton.  He hits the hole like I do.  Early and quickly.
* DAMMIT!!!  What is our infatuation with passes to the guy with his back to the D???
* Have I mentioned how much I love Slaton?
* jesus fuckity fuck.  why in the fuck are we rushing with zgonina and greenwood, putting okoye on the outside, and dropping back mario?  Why?
* I want to punch the titans announcer.
* The Mccareins catch had both offensive pass interference and he was OOB when he caught it.  Fucking.  Awesome.
* We are a different team with Okam in the middle over Zg.  Period.
* LenWhale has still not scored that TD.
* The o-line is inconsistent but promising.
* Schaub is horrible.  His throws are bad and his reads are bad.
* Antwaun Molden = aware.
* ziles is not the answer.
* why don’t titans cheerleaders have all their teeth?
* Why does Jacoby hate me?

/bangs head repeatedly against desk

Sep 22, 2008 2008 Season, DO NOT WANT, Fuck

There is a pictorial kickoff coming as soon as my slow-ass work computer can get the pictures uploaded to Photobucket.  In the meantime, I suppose we might as well discuss the botched abortion game. As is my wont, I am going to do it bullet-point style because I have too much shit to craft any sort of cohesive narrative.  Because I am full of piss and vinegar today, let’s start with the negatives.  Grab a snack, because this list could get long.

• Matt Schaub.  I honestly don’t know where the fuck to start, Matt.  You didn’t look off a single first-option all day.  You looked scared—not scared of contact, which would have been irritating but understandable, mind you, but scared of fucking up.  You tried to guide every pass.  You kept throwing swing passes to Vonta Leach, yet you completely ignored Leach (just like in the Pittsburgh game) the one time he was open past the line of scrimmage.  You have apparently decided that you do not like Andre Johnson, which is very odd.  You actually had people—Texans fans!—mentioning your name in the same breath as David Carr.  (And it was NOT in the context of, “wow…he’s much better than David Carr.”)  I mean…I…FUCK.  Moving on.
• Richard Smith.  I’m calling Richard out first among the coaches for two reasons.  One, I hate him.  Two, anyone who would drop Mario Williams into coverage while simultaneously rushing only three or four is a fucking retard.  We don’t have a pass rush and you are going to take far and away our best pass rusher and have him try to cover a RB or TE in the flat?  Really?  (This is rhetorical, obviously, as you are the same shitstain who kept using Mario in coverage and at DT in 2006, thus proving that you have absolutely no idea what you have in Mario.)  Also…here’s an idea…put Okam between Amobi and Mario and tell all three of them to go forward.  I know, it’s crazy, but it just might work.
• Will Demps.  Honestly, Will, if you were giving the opponents any more of a cushion, you would be standing out of bounds.  If you can’t play closer to the line than that, you should probably not be starting.  And by “probably,” I mean “definitely.”
• Gary Kubiak. I’m putting him fourth for one reason, and it’s something I’ll have to explain in a later post.  Namely, with the exception of one of them, the decision to go for those fourth downs was statistically the right call.  At the same time, Gar (can I call you Gar?), those statistics don’t account for shit like “our offense has been bad all day” and “you probably shouldn’t go for it if you are going to run a play more suited for first and ten” and “their defense is way better than their offense, so we might be better off playing field position.”  So, yeah, while others are lambasting you for the continued fourth downs, I’ll support you there.  But I will not support HOW you went for the fourths.  Additionally, you do realize that you get TWO challenges in a game, right?  I ask because McCareins’ long catch should have been challenged, as should the ensuing running play where White clearly missed the goal line by at least a foot.  I know you were worried about not being able to challenge anything in the second half, but that’s not really an excuse.
• Jacques Reeves.  Nice INT.  Really.  But it doesn’t really make up for the two dropped INTs later, does it?  I never thought I’d say this—and, honestly, I’m getting a little ill thinking about it—but Petey Faggins might be better than you right now.  /throws up
• Fred Bennett.  Ah, Fred…I know you are young and I still have no doubt that you will become a superstar, but you need to shape up, holmes.  It’s almost like you get lulled to sleep watching teams target Reeves and then you seem shocked—SHOCKED!—when you suddenly have to make a play.  Not good.
• Kyle Shannahan.  You should be higher on this list but I momentarily overlooked you and I’m too lazy to re-order.  Here’s the deal, though:  yesterday’s gameplan was the most vanilla offensive scheme I have ever seen.  At any level.  Ever.  Now, perhaps some of that is because Matt Schaub went deer-in-the-headlights on you and refused to look at the second or third option at any point Sunday, so you abandoned your original, Martzian gameplan and went simple.  Possible, but I doubt it, especially after a similar “performance” against Pittsburgh.  Here’s how bad that offensive scheming was—I have never coached football in my life, but I could have come up with something better than that.  I have zero doubt.  A few pointers you might want to consider:  When using only two WRs, one of them should be Andre Johnson.  Unless you and Kevin Walter have a Brokeback thing happenin’, I can’t figure out why Walter/Daniels would be the two receivers on any given play.  When using only one WR, Andre Johnson should be that one.  When Schaub is only looking for his first option on a given play, the first option should always be Andre Johnson and should never, ever, EVER be Vonta Leach.  If you need more pointers, I can be reached at the email address in the sidebar.
• Eric Winston.  First of all, you could probably also be on the good list, since you showed some great athletic ability blocking downfield.  But you make this list as well for letting Kearse come from without so much as a sneeze in his general direction.  You did the same thing with Antwan Odom last year.  These are the types of things that get people killed, E.
• The officials.  They were bad both directions, really, so I can’t blame them for the loss, but that was some piss poor officiating all day long.
• Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels.  Dropped TDs will never be acceptable, guys.  Never.

Now for the good.  This list will be shorter.

• Duane Brown.  Athletic blocking and KVB was not a factor for much of the afternoon (relatively speaking).  I was scared to death about this matchup and Brown greatly exceeded my expectations.
• Steve Slaton.  Ladies and gentlemen, my I introduce your Texans RB of the future?
• Dominique Barber.  Nice special teams work.  Now please work on defenestrating Will Demps.
• Jacoby Jones.  Thanks for not fumbling, fucknut.  (Though it can’t be a good sign when all the Texans fans are in agreement that we’d prefer you to let the ball bounce away or call fair catch rather than return it.)

That’s it.  Guh.

OK…let’s try to spin this a little.  It’s only 2 games.  Other than Tennessee, no one in the division has more than one win, meaning we are 1 win out of second place.  Um…the offense has to improve because there is too much talent in the WRs not to.  Richard Smith might wind up fired if the defense plays like that much more.  At least no one got hurt.  Etc.

Fuck that.

We played like stinky dog ass.  Somehow, the game was simultaneously closer than the score indicated, yet we were never, ever in danger of taking a real lead (not counting the first kick) or taking control of anything.  Our two biggest problems right now are the two areas we were supposed to have fixed last year—QB and coaching.  This is not good.  Right now, we are a 4-12 team.  I think we’ll improve and we might even go on a run during those easily winnable (in theory) home games, but it is going to take some serious changes to do so.

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to go bleach my eyeballs.