2007 Predictions Revisited; 2008 Predictions Revealed
Sep 2, 2008 2008 Season, Colts Shmolts, Cooper Manning gently weeps, Predictions Guaranteed To Go Wrong, San Diego will miss the playoffs because Rivers is a do, Teams that aren't the Texans
If you’ve been paying attention, you’ve surely noticed that bfd and I have yet to do any predictions regarding the upcoming NFL season. The reason? Well, we are lazy. Beyond that, however, we also wanted to wait as long as possible to see how some stuff shook out in camps and whatnot.
Before I get into my prognosticatin’, however, I thought I would take a look back at my season-long predictions from last year, both good (my weekly picks) and bad (my preseason picks). Last things first, here were my NFL predictions for 2007:
Thursday night’s game was all well and good in that it was real football that mattered beginning to end. Football is back, yada yada yada. However, for all of us not living in Indianapolis (thankfully) or New Orleans, there is one day left until we kick off the season for real.
For fans of the Juggernaut, of course, tomorrow’s game against the Chiefs is full of storylines. Will Schaub keep making us forget about Zoolander? Is Ahman Green as much of an upgrade as we think? Are the Chiefs going to be worse than the Raiders this year? [Author's note: The answer to all of those questions is "yes."]
Now, I am on record as counting this game as one of our nine wins. I still believe that and, other than laughing about the Chiefs failures to win a playoff game since Bill Clinton’s first year in office, I have little to add.
I do think, however, that this is as good a place as any to throw out the official DGDB&D 2007 Predictions. Let’s rock. (# denotes first round bye, * denotes wild card)
AFC East
New England #
New York
Buffalo
MiamiAFC South
Indianapolis #
Jacksonville *
Houston (9-7)
TennesseeAFC West
San Diego
Denver
Oakland
Kansas CityAFC North
Baltimore
Pittsburgh*
Cincinnati
ClevelandNFC East
Philadelphia
Washington
Dallas
New YorkNFC South
Carolina #
New Orleans*
Atlanta
Tampa BayNFC West
Seattle #
St. Louis*
San Francisco
ArizonaNFC North
Chicago
Green Bay
Detroit
MinnesotaAFC Championship Game
San Diego def. New EnglandNFC Championship Game
Seattle def. CarolinaSuper Bowl
San Diego def. Seattle
Wow. Those are–what’s the word? BAD. Yeah, that’s it. Did I really have Chicago winning the North over Green Bay? Was I high or something? Christ.
NOW, when I was allowed to pick week-by-week, thereby incorporating what we knew about teams as the year went forward, I did much better. I went 156-91 in the regular season and 8-3 in the playoffs. I rocked shit. (Let this be fair warning to the rest of you taking part in Chris’s Pick’em League, bitches.)
With all that out of the way, let’s get into the 2008 season. Like last year, I am predicting order of finish, but not records, because I hate it when people predict overall records without checking to see if they are logistically possible based on the matchups.
Also, one last side note before I start. Another pet peeve of mine is writers and other experts who pick the same teams to win the divisions as last season and pick nearly all the same playoff teams. The former has never happened in the current setup and the historical rate of playoff team turnover is about 50%. So, off the bat, I’m tabbing Jacksonville, Tennessee, San Diego, Washington, Tampa Bay, and Green Bay as the teams from last year who won’t get in this year.
AFC North
Cleveland
Pittsburgh*
Baltimore
Cincinnati
AFC East
New England
Buffalo*
New York
Miami
AFC South
Indianapolis
Houston (9-7)
Jacksonville (Yes, I still have a post forthcoming explaining this. Damn you, stop pressuring me!)
Tennessee (6-10)
AFC West
Denver
San Diego
Kansas City
Oakland
NFC North
Minnesota
Detroit
Green Bay
Chicago
NFC East
Philadelphia
Dallas*
New York*
Washington
NFC South
New Orleans
Carolina
Tampa Bay
Atlanta (on the clock)
NFC West
Seattle
St. Louis
San Francisco
Arizona
AFC Championship Game
Indianapolis over Cleveland
NFC Championship Game
Philadelphia over Seattle
Super Bowl
Philadelphia over Indianapolis
So, there you have it. Now, if these are anything like last year’s, they’ll be moot by week 3.
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September 2nd, 2008 at 2:58 pm
Not to put too fine a point on it, but I hope to God/Durga/Super Mario that you are dead wrong here. If the Eagles win the Super Bowl, I might have to stop being a football fan. I do not want to live in a world where Donovan McNabb is a champion at anything!
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September 2nd, 2008 at 3:37 pm
You completely stole my “Philly’s good again” thunder! A couple of weeks ago you had Dal/NYG/Was making the playoffs with them in 4th place! I HATE the Eagles, but really like their defense and think McNabb has a bounce back year. Starting in Week 2, of course (GO RAMS!).
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And Denver winning the AFC West?! PLEASE explain. I think they’ll be the sucktacular this year.
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My pix forthcoming.
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September 2nd, 2008 at 3:37 pm
“…because I hate it when people predict overall records without checking to see if they are logistically possible based on the matchups.”
See Woodmansee, Jeffy
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September 2nd, 2008 at 3:39 pm
@bigwood25: I don’t consider it “stole” so much as listened to reason. If they stay healthy, they have the weapons to score with Dallas and a better D. Plus, there was no way the NFC finished in the same order as last year, so I threw the curve.
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Re: Denver winning the west. I needed a sixth team to not make the playoffs and San Diego seemed prime for the picking. LDT is not getting any younger, P.Rivers is a total douchebag and he sucks, Gates is not 100%, and Merriman is gimpy. On the flipside, Brandon Marshall is good and I really like Jay Cutler to have a breakout year.
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September 2nd, 2008 at 3:50 pm
* = WC
+ = Best Record
- = Worst Record
AFC North
Steelers+ (13-3)
Browns
Bungals
Ravens
–
AFC East
Pats (12-4)
Jets* (10-6)
Bills
Dolphins- (4-12)
–
AFC South
Colts (10-6)
Texans* (10-6)
Jags
Titans
–
AFC West
Chargers (11-5)
Raiders
Broncos
Chiefs- (4-12)
–
NFC North
Vikes (11-5)
Bears
Lions
Packers
–
NFC East
Cowgirls+ (13-3)
Eagles* (12-4)
Giants* (10-6)
Redskins
–
NFC South
Saints (10-6)
Panthers
Buccaneers
Falcons- (2-14)
–
NFC West
Rams (9-7)
Cards
Seahawks
FortyWhiners
–
AFC Championship Game
Steelers over Patriots
–
NFC Championship Game
Cowgirls over Eagles
–
Super Bowl
Steelers over Cowgirls
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September 2nd, 2008 at 3:50 pm
Re: Philly. I wonder about McNabb. How good will he be this year? I’m not confident he’ll be that good. He was middle-of-the-road last year, and he plays in a tough division. But I like that you have them finishing head of Dallas.
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I also have a hard time seeing New Orleans win their division, but it’s such a weak division that they could, I suppose.
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And while I’m hoping the Texans will finish second in their division this year, I’m more confident that they’ll end up in third, ahead of the BESFs.
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September 2nd, 2008 at 3:51 pm
@bigwood25: Dr. Z, who may be an even worse sports writer than Peter King, does the same thing. It’s maddening.
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September 2nd, 2008 at 3:52 pm
“Jeff” and “reason” do not necessarily go hand in hand. I’ll take it.
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September 2nd, 2008 at 3:54 pm
I’d soooo take the Vikes outta the NFC if they only had even a halfass QB. I really think Dal/Phi/Min is the class of the conference.
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Yes, that’s my Rams winning the West with a just above .500 record. I’m telling you, our D is much better and no way we suffer nearly as many injuries last year.
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September 2nd, 2008 at 3:56 pm
Not sold on Cutler and think the Denver D has seen (much) better days.
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September 2nd, 2008 at 4:57 pm
If it makes you feel any better, I had the Giants with a top five pick in last year’s draft.
I’m pretty sure I did at least call Baltimore being atrocious though. I’m pleased with myself for that one. In fact, I’ll stick with it and pick them to be dead last this year.
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I won’t go through the entire thing because I’d just be repeating for the most part, but I can get down with Jacksonville not making the playoffs as well. There’s no friggin’ way Garrard posts a 6:1 TD:INT ratio this year. Anyways, I just spent a few minutes digging around espn and I couldn’t find the article I was going to link, but it basically talked about regression to the mean.
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Most of the categories boded very well for us; % of fumbles recovered and injuries were the big two that hurt us last year, and are described as completely random. Now, obviously injuries are more likely to take their toll if you march out there with Ahman Green as your starting RB, but apparently fumble recoveries (not forced fumbles) have zero correlation from year to year.
We were very unfortunate on both fronts. Jacksonville was incredibly lucky on those two.
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My random observations: Some are serious, some are a bit out there. That’s for you to decide.
AFC West: Denver will continue to be haunted by the curse of the Snake. San Diego will win the division once again, and Billy Volek will lead them to a superbowl victory over the Panthers. Other playoff teams will be Indy, NE, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Houston. Oh, and KC will be not-a-so-good at the football this year.
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AFC North: Pittsburgh will be pretty damn good, especially since they’ll be playing in the weakest division in football. Derek Anderson will be replaced by week eight, Marvin Lewis will get fired, and the great Baltimore defense will be disbanded and traded away. Ed Reed will find his way onto our beloved Texans and lead us on a superbowl run in 2010.
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The AFC East bores me, although I’m a big Bills fan. I hope Marshawn Lynch can find a Dave and Buster’s in Toronto. And because I don’t know how to hyperlink here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSO-kdWLFes.
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As for the NFC… Well, that study I mentioned above bodes well for the Rams as well, since they got rocked by injuries last year. I’ll gladly hop on the Vikings bandwagon. I mean, come on! Tarvaris Jackson just wins games. Anyways, Panthers, Saints, Rams, Seahawks, Cowboys all make the playoffs. Panthers lose to Chargers in the NFC championship game.
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September 2nd, 2008 at 5:06 pm
And just in case you were thinking about not watching that video, allow me to pull some quotes:
“Marshawn is a fresh of breath air; he just loves chain restaurants. Matter of fact, he ate at Applebees twelve times during the bye-week.”
“I love the ambiance, I love the decor. I spend a lot of time trying to figure out which one I like more–the ambiance, or the decor.”
“The rookie has spent most of his signing bonus on skee-ball, but he doesn’t mind. He says it’s good for the Buffalo economy.”
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September 2nd, 2008 at 5:39 pm
I make no predictions. I make no promises. I make no bets. Every time I have, it’s an automatic out! So…I’m happy to be rooting for the Texans AND (yes…gasp) The “not-a-so-good at the football this year” KC Chiefs. Yay!!!! Football!!!! Gimme the real shit…FINALLY!!!
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September 2nd, 2008 at 6:33 pm
@Foomey: “Gimme the real shit” I guess she’s tired of guys squatting over her and emptying a chocolate snack pack on her chest….
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September 2nd, 2008 at 6:54 pm
Now back to our regularly scheduled program…..
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These predictions are for shit. My thoughts are as follows. Feel free to bet on my shit and cut me in for 10% of every parlay.
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AFC EAST- New England has finally arrived at mediocrity. They go 10-6. NY 9-7. Buffalo and Miami? Who gives a fuck.
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AFC SOUTH- Indy has lost their edge. They go 9-7. Jax and Juggernaut both go 10-6. Jax wins division. BESF 23-0 (my pick 6-10).
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AFC West- SD goes 11-5 and Oakland 9-7. Fuck Denver in the eye. KC sucks balls.
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AFC North- Cinci goes 9-7, Cleveland 8-8 and Pitt goes 10-6. Baltimore is dead in the water this year.
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NFC East- Washington 10-6, Philly 9-7, Irving 8-8 (the Wade Phillips Curse), NY 8-8.
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NFC South- Tampa 9-7, NO 9-7, Carolina 8-8, Atlanta 6-10
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NFC West- Seattle 9-7, Arizona 8-8, SL 7-9, SF 7-9
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NFC North- Minn 10-6, Detroit 9-7, GB 8-8, Chicago 6-10
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That’s how I see it. Although I value different opinions, feel free to bite my bag.
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September 2nd, 2008 at 7:23 pm
per rotoworld Braden Frye released
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September 2nd, 2008 at 7:40 pm
@James: But why? We must have either signed or will be signing somebody? And whyTF is Zgonina still on the roster? Please, for the love of Durga, somebody tell me!
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September 2nd, 2008 at 8:25 pm
@stacy: “AFC West- SD goes 11-5 and Oakland 9-7. Fuck Denver in the eye. KC sucks balls.” You’d like it if an entire football team would suck your balls. And you call me a dirty whore! Geez!
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September 2nd, 2008 at 8:26 pm
@stacy: Oh..and Fuck the Raiders!!!
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September 2nd, 2008 at 8:27 pm
@stacy: It’s actually Hershey’s syrup, and then they throw in some niblets for effect.
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September 2nd, 2008 at 8:30 pm
“Tarvaris Jackson just wins games.”
Tarvaris…better than VY? Just axe-in’.
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Sick of Seattle being everyone’s default NFC West pick AND claiming the AFC West is actually a worse division overall,
Jeffy
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September 2nd, 2008 at 8:31 pm
@Foomey: Getting your balls sucked is no biggie. Just cover them with peanut butter and let your dog have a whiff. However, I’d be delighted to let the Raiders toss my salad. You know they all learned how either in prison or Al Davis’ office. Geez, just look at Jevon Walker, you know that mofo can eat some ass. He doesn’t even need honey or jam.
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September 2nd, 2008 at 8:32 pm
Darren McFadden makes the Raiders completely acceptable to root for again. Dude is gon’ be da TROOF.
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September 2nd, 2008 at 8:33 pm
Did Matt add the Pee Wee Herman genie guy after he initally posted this? Bravo, I say! What’s the secret word?
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September 2nd, 2008 at 8:47 pm
@bigwood25: The secret word is “chlamydia.” Mekaleka hiney meka hiney ho, ho.
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September 2nd, 2008 at 8:54 pm
Hey, so weren’t you gonna post something about why Jacksonville sucks?
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September 2nd, 2008 at 8:56 pm
Just prior to kickoff on Sept. 21, I hope Matt Hasselbeck realizes he has aquired…chlamydia.
~*ROOM GOES NUTS, CRAZY NOISE*~
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September 2nd, 2008 at 11:36 pm
Join the HoustonDiehards pick em league! http://www.houstondiehards.com/?p=1245
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September 3rd, 2008 at 11:00 am
No way Cleveland wins their division. All those teams are going to be down this year, but Cleveland’s going to fall harder than Pittsburgh. Buffalo is not good enough to get a wild card, I’m betting they both come out of the AFC South again this year, us and Jacksonville.
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And I’m not even going to bother reading the NFC stuff, all the NFC teams are the same to me.