DGDB&D: a Texans blog.

Why The Jacksonville Jaguars Will Not Make The Playoffs This Year

Sep 7, 2008 Curious Coaching, Teams that aren't the Texans

Everyone and their brother has the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Indianapolis Colts battling it out for the division crown in 2008, as if it is a foregone conclusion that both of them will definitely make the playoffs.  Now, maybe the rest of this post is just wishful thinking on my part.  I mean, it’s totally possible that I am just looking for a way to convince myself that we are closer to the rest of the division than we really are.  But, at the same time, I just can’t shake the feeling that the Jacksonville Jaguars are going to take a big step backward this year.  In fact, I can think of at least four reasons why they could/will slide:

1. The loss of Marcus Stroud.  As someone who has been screaming about our own need for quality tackles since before Okoye was drafted, I don’t think I can overstate the impact that Marcus Stroud had on the Jaguars defense.  In a nutshell, Jacksonville’s stingy defense was built around the notion that you absolutely could not run against them because of Stoud and John Henderson in the middle, so everyone in the place knew you were going to have to throw.  They could then pin their collective ears back on the outside and get after QBs.

This two-pronged attack of impenetrable run defense and good pressure from the front four masked one glaring weakness that no one likes to talk about—the guys in the back seven are not that great.  Oh, sure, Rashean Mathis is good (though he was inconsistent last year) and Reggie Nelson shows flashes of great talent, but Gerald Sensabaugh?  He’s tough, but he’s a back-up at best.   Brian Williams?  Average corner, who can’t hang with top receivers, and who is likely to see more time at safety. Drayton Florence? He’s a cheap-shot-throwing cockgobbler, and while he arrives with a lot of hype, he ranked 66th among CBs in Success % and 72nd in Average Yards Allowed Per Pass.

In front of those guys, Mike Peterson is a force when he is healthy…which is about 6 games per year. Daryl Smith is a solid player, I suppose (though he did rank 60th in run stopping among LBs),but one gets the impression that his success in pass coverage (6th in Success %) is due to being asked to cover for a very short time.  If there is no rush from the front four, he won’t be able to cover anyone because he’ll be drafted for one of Gregg Williams’ ridiculous blitzing schemes. (More on that in a bit.) Clint Ingram is…what’s the word…oh, yeah, mediocre.  At best.  Backup LB Justin Durant, who played Smith’s position when Peterson went down and Smith moved over, is talented and has very good speed, but is more suited for the outside LB role than the MLB position, leaving the team without a true MLB when Peterson eventually gets hurt.

Add to these question marks that pass defense was already a bit of a problem for the Jags last year and you can see how losing Stroud could be a huge deal.

Now, those who would tell you that the Jags will be fine without Stroud are banking on Rob Meier taking over Stroud’s Under Tackle position without missing (much of) a beat.  After all, he did rank 1st among D-linemen in Stop % last year.  They are, additionally, banking on either career pass-rush specialist Reggie Hayward becoming a real first- and second-down DE or one (or both) of the rookie DEs, Quentin Groves and Derrick Harvey, being dominant on third down (or more).  Why is no one concerned about this?  Meier has been a good back-up for years and he has strong, quick hands, but he does not have near the power that Stroud had at the point of contact and he is not even in the same league as Stroud when it comes to run defense.  His high stop rate last year was no indicative of overall skill unless you really believe that a 30-year-old situational DT suddenly took a leap to be among the NFL elite.  So, how much of a drop off will he be and, more importantly, how much of a drop off can the defense take?

Now, I am not saying that the defense is suddenly going to be devoid of talent.  Paul Spicer is overrated, in large part because people say dumb things like he got 41 quarterback pressures last year, but he is still a good-to-very-good player.  John Henderson is still a beast.  And, like I mentioned throughout the above, there is talent at a number of positions.  My only point is the loss of Stroud has the potential to big a much bigger problem than anyone is saying.  First, if you can run on them with relative ease, they can no longer expect teams to be forced to throw on second and third downs, thus you slow down their pass rush AND you open up the play action.  Second, if they aren’t getting a big push up front with their downlinemen, you immediate exacerbate the weaknesses in the secondary.  (As to this second point, it is a lesson that Texans fans know all too well.)

2. David Garrard is not as good as he looked last year.  I’m going to be blunt: there is no way in Hell that Garrard only throws three interceptions in 2008.  His three picks in 325 attempts last year (.9% INT rate) was tied for the lowest since 1983.  Steve DeBerg, the man with whom Garrard tied, went from 4 INTs in 1990 to 14 in 1991.  In fact, according to Football Outsiders,

Since 1983, seven quarterbacks threw at least 325 attempts with an interception rate of 0.9 percent or lower, and also threw 325 passes for the same team the following year. In the second year, that rate went up to an average of 3.5 percent, higher than the average interception rate of 3.2 percent for all qualifying quarterbacks over that timeframe.

So, if you assume he will bump up to around 3.5%, that’s 11 or 12 INTs in 2008 if his number of attempts stays about the same.  Does that make him worthless?  Of course not.  But it does make a difference.  The Jags thrive on grind-it-out football, clock management, and the like.  11 or 12 INTs can have a huge impact on that kind of ball control offense.  (And the 3.5% might be being generous, since he had a 3.7% rate in 241 attempts in 2006.)

An even bigger question, though, is David Garrard in general.  Yes, he had a good year last year.  But NFL history is littered with guys who had one good year.  See, e.g., Mitchell, Scott and Johnson, Brad.  Until Garrard shows that he is closer in talent to the guy who played in 2007 than the guy who played in 2006 (10 DYAR, -4.8% DVOA), Jags fans should remain cautiously optimistic and nothing more.

2a. Speaking of Garrard, who exactly is he going to throw to? If you really believe that head-case, never-been-a-number-one-guy, missing-the-whole-preseason-on-the-PUP-list, runs-lazy-routes-even-when-he’s-healthy Jerry Porter is going to transform the Jaguars’ passing attack, please raise your hand.  Anyone?  I didn’t think so.  Troy Williamson?  The guy has 79 career catches and the Vikings—a team that desperately needs WRs—let him go. Matt Jones?  Dennis Northcutt? C’mon.  The Jaguars’ WR situation makes the Texans’ RB situation seem settled and unproblematic.

3. Good bye Mike Smith; hello Gregg Williams.  With 2007 D-coordinator Mike Smith gone to pilot the lead balloon in Atlanta, the Jaguars bring in former Redskins DC, Gregg Williams.  Now, the optimist will look at the Skins’ D over the last few years and see that they were consistently in the top 10.  That is true.  But what that overlooks is:

• Williams’ system, for all its ridiculous blitzes, was fairly good in terms of sacks in 2004, before becoming below average in 2005, dead-last in 2006, and only slightly above average in 2007.
• The Redskins were average in INTs in 2004 and 2005,  dead-last in 2006, and well below average last year.
• Williams scheme puts an insane amount of pressure on the secondary, especially the corners, and we’ve already discussed the problems the Jags’ secondary has.
• Williams has already shown a complete inability to effectively utilize talented safeties.  (For proof, ask any Redskins fan to tell you about Williams’ insistence that Sean Taylor play 25 yards off the line just to prevent the team from giving up the deep ball…which they were doing BECAUSE of the pressure his “system” was putting on the corners.)
• Even worse (and I can’t find the link) Williams and his proponents are saying how Reggie Nelson is going to “be the Jags’ Bob Sanders.”  Umm…what?  Nelson is a 4-3 FS whose biggest talent is his coverage ability.  (Remember, there was talk of him playing CB in the NFL coming out of college.)  Sanders is a Cover-2 SS whose biggest asset is run support and whose coverage responsibilities are limited.  On top of all this insanity, last year Nelson was abysmal in run support.
• Williams’ system gets credit for being aggressive, but unlike, say, Jim Johnson’s always-moving-forward approach, Williams’ is a ridid, no-freelancing-allowed, read-and-react sort of system.  Just because it sends five and six rushers does not change the fact that, many times, the whole defense plays as if they are on their heels.

4. History.  Very few teams in today’s NFL are able to win 10-12 games a year every year.  Generally, there are a couple steps forward, then a slide back, later, rinse, repeat.  Over the last five years, the Jags have gone 5-11, 9-7, 12-4, 8-8, and 11-5.  Now, which seems more likely–another step forward, say to 12 or 13 wins, or a slide back to the 7-9 win range?  Assuming the QB throws more INTs, the defense isn’t as good, and, hell, that 32-year-old Fred Taylor won’t get 200 carries this year, I think the latter is much more likely.

So, there ya have it.  Like I said at the beginning, this whole thing might just be my way to make myself feel better about our upcoming season.  Nevertheless, I stand by it.  Jags < 10 wins.