DGDB&D: a Texans blog.

So, I was killing time just a few minutes ago and I started looking at random Texans’ stats.  Get this:

When the Texans rushed to the left last year, which they did 91 times, they averaged 3.7/carry.

When the Texans rushed up the middle, which they did 114 times, they averaged 3.7/carry.

But, when the Texans rushed to the right, which they did only 42 times, they averaged 5.1/carry.

OK…sure…you generally expect that a team will do a little better running to the strong side.  That makes sense, right?  But here’s where it gets weird.  The left-run average? 25th in the league.  The middle-run avearge? 4th in the league.  The right-run average? 11th in the league.

What does all this mean?  I dunno.  Nada, I suppose.  It just struck me as note-worthy that our much-maligned running game was actually well above average on 156 of our 247 carries. (Here is where one of the 50 engineers who reads this blog should chime in with some better analysis.  Lawyers don’t do math.  Well, other than grungedave, but he’s odd.)

This arrived in my inbox this afternoon:

Subject: Mario Williams maybe [sic] overhyped

Message: I understand that Mario Williams is having a good camp, but look at what he is going against.  With the zone blocking system, during practice, he is going one-on-one against quicker, but SMALLER offensive lineman [sic].  This allows Mario to use his strength - power rush against the smaller offensive lineman.  Against other teams, most of whom don’t have zone blocking system, and have bigger offensive lineman, Mario Williams won’t have a size advantage and won’t be able to use his strength - power rush ; he will have to use his weakness against them : the finess [sic] rush techniques.

Quick, spot the main flaw in this argument!  (Note: While glaring, “punctuation and grammatical errors” is not the correct answer.)

Hint: To the best of my knowledge, Mario did not play any regular season games against the Texans last year.

but I need some motherflippin’ football.  Let’s go to the tape!

Now, let’s get ready for 2008…

10. He inspired the following as recently as last October:

When you watch Cedric Benson run the football you’re struck by two contrasting traits. He doesn’t go out of his way to make people miss, preferring to try and run people over, and he doesn’t seem to run the ball very hard. It’s hard enough to pull off the first thing in the NFL under any circumstances but impossible when you don’t run into the line like a runaway train. Too often, Benson appears to go down at first contact and appears to be missing the assertiveness you need to be a successful NFL running back.

9. He was so disliked by his teammates in Chicago that “about ten” Bears defensive players tried to hurt him in practice.  I would prefer Mario to continue trying to murder opposing QBs and not have him disembowel a teammate.

8. He is coming off a season-ending broken leg that required a plate in his lower leg, near his ankle.  Maybe it is completely healed with no lingering after-effects, but do you really want to take that chance?  Do you REALLY want to risk having him make the roster, only to then find out, oops, I guess it wasn’t totally perfect?  Because, maybe I am old fashioned, but I think we’ve got enough injury questions in our backfield as it is.

7. He is a summa cum laude (loud?) graduate of the Fred Smoot School of Nautical Recreation.

6. According to beef,

this guy me and some friends met at a party, who went to UT, and played with C-bong at Midland Lee [...] said that everyone on Lee’s team hated his guts because he was such a prick, and all he cared about were his numbers [...] and he was a whiny finger-pointer.  Anyway, the dude said that he had several other friends on UT’s team, and when he’d tell them he was from Lee, they’d bring up how much everyone on UT’s team hated his ass too for the same shit.  You could also tell it from watching their games.  He’d always be standing by himself on the sidelines and no one would ever come up to him for congratulatory or “keep your head up” comments.

Is that nothing but hearsay?  You bet.  But it’s fully admissible in the Court of Matt Fucking Hates You.

5. His boat parties don’t end well.  “Yeah, yeah…suuuuure you weren’t drinking.”

4. About a month after deciding boating wasn’t for him, he took the same strategy to the open road, only with fewer hoes and no bag of Sun Chips.  This fantastic story ends with a court-ordered breathalyzer ignition lock.  So I’m guessing the judge didn’t buy the excuses.

3. The idea that he can fall forward for 4 yards a pop is tenuous at best, considering he fell forward for 3.4 YPC last year before tearing his mangina breaking his leg.  He did manage 4.1 YPC in 2006.  You know who else managed 4.1 in 2006?  Ron “Meringue” Dayne.  And Dayne had 4.0 YPC in 2007.  And he did it all without endangering the public, eating Sun Chips with hoes, or getting arrested multiple times.

2. According to the Chicago Sun-Times,

The worst part of it is that Benson isn’t a viable reserve because he doesn’t pass block, play special teams, or help on third downs. He could be low on the depth chart (emphasis added).

I’m guessing that could be a problem as we break in a rookie LT and try to keep Matt Schaub upright all year.  Just sayin’.

1. He’s not a good fit for a true zone blocking system.  Thomas Jones was the cut-back style runner on the Bears and he was shipped to New York because the Bears thought Benson’s “pounding” (and I use that term as loosely as it can be employed) style was a better fit for them.  He doesn’t have the speed to get the outside zone consistently (and he runs upright on outside runs), yet he lacks the vision to properly cut back and go. And I’m not the only one who says this stuff:

If there’s one thing we know post-trade, it’s that the Bears offensive line was suspect/borderline shitty last season too.  Their inability to open solid running lanes was masked by the cut-back running style of Thomas Jones.  When Jones took the hand-off from Grossman and realized his blockers hadn’t cleared any space, he was able to manufacture extra yardage.  Even then, he still danced around the backfield too often and was never able to break off any long runs.

So it should be no surprise that Benson is struggling.  He is strictly a straight-ahead, power runner; if the hole isn’t open, he’s not going anywhere.  I’ve seen better run blocking from plastic lineman on an electric football table than what the Bears have shown this year.

According to Rick Smith:

[T]he team won’t hesitate to start [Sage] Rosenfels if he outplays [Matt] Schaub this season.

“That to me always plays itself out on the football field,” Smith said. “I don’t think you can let finances, ego, I don’t think you can let anything stand in the way of playing the best football player because that is going to win you football games on Sunday.”

I suppose, on its face, that statement is far more enlightened than what you get out of most general managers. Lord knows, you’d never hear something like that out of Dallas, even if Jesus Christ himself was the second-string QB. (Not that Jesus would ever deign to play for the ladies up north. Maybe I should have used “Troy Aikman’s assbaby” as my hypothetical QB. Whatever.)

ANYWAY…like I said, that is a pretty enlightened statement for a GM to make. Do I buy it? Depends. If you are asking whether I believe that Sage would get to play if Schaub flopped, of course. If, however, you are asking whether I think Schaub and Sage enter this season on equal footing with the starting QB job up for grabs, my answer is “hell to da naw, dawg.” Which I think means “no.”

Without rehashing all the same Schaub v. Sage arguments, can we all just agree that pretending like the QB you mortgaged the farm for this time last year is going to be given every chance in the world to succeed is asinine? Better yet, can we agree that if Sage and Schaub turn in identical pre-season performances that Schaub is the guy you go with? Finally, can we assume that I am just doing a paragraph of nothing but rhetorical questions so it looks like I have posted more?

I suppose I should take the high road, but that is clearly not my style. So file this under “Things That Continue To Make Me Laugh.”

CHARLOTTE – It’s time to begin trimming the fat from NFL rosters.

The Carolina Panthers, like other teams around the league, are free to begin releasing unwanted players Monday morning as the NFL waiver wire picks up. The cuts will come for various reasons – age, overall ineffectiveness, injury concerns and high salary cap figures.

After finishing 7-9 in 2007 and failing to make the playoffs for a second straight season, the Panthers are likely to see plenty of turnover. As owner Jerry Richardson said last month, the Panthers can’t afford to have a “ho-hum” off-season.

That means the team will be looking to make changes. And to make room for the new, the Panthers in many cases will have to part with the old.

And while the cuts won’t all come Monday – and, in fact, some may takes weeks or months to make as the team makes certain it has a replacement in place – you can bet the Panthers roster will look very different when they report to training camp in July.

That said, here are a number of players who should be a little concerned with their job security over the off-season:

QB David Carr

Reasons to cut him: Carr looked frightened in the pocket and his teammates quickly lost all confidence in him. By the end of the season coach John Fox was even afraid to play Carr, demoting him to third string. With a cap figure of more than $4 million, keeping Carr would be, well… ludicrous.

Reasons to keep him: Can’t think of any.

My take: To me, this is easiest cut in franchise history. I would anticipate the team will waste little time parting with Carr.

Over/under on how long it takes before he starts blaming the players around him and suggesting that, had there been more talent, he would have succeeded?

June 13, 1979–On my first birthday, Petey Faggins is born. In what will become a lifelong theme, Faggins consistently misses the nipple as he tries to breast feed. He quickly learns that his only hope is to grab it with both hands and hope he can get his face there before it breaks free.

May 3, 1983–Three-year-old Petey’s pet turtle Rodrigo escapes. Petey attempts to tackle the turtle before it can get away, but misses completely. He lays on the ground crying as the turtle bolts for safety. His grandmother boos him for the first time.

November 25, 1990–Petey wins the role of Miles Standish in his fifth-grade Thanksgiving play. Despite an outstanding performance by little Stevie Johnson as Squanto, the play falls flat because Petey flubs all his lines and even falls off the stage at one point. The Pilgrims are booed mercilessly.

December 25, 1993–14-year-old Petey receives an autographed Deion Sanders football for Christmas. He holds it up and proclaims that he is going to be in the NFL as a defensive back one day, too. He then drops the football, breaking his grandma’s favorite ornament, prompting the old lady to punch him in the mouth. He cries.

January 15, 1997–Petey Faggins signs his letter of intent to play for Navarro Junior College. When asked why he didn’t sign with an NCAA school, Faggins offers only that they “didn’t know what they were missing.” People assume he is joking, so they laugh. Faggins dies a little inside.

July 29, 1999–Faggins transfers to Kansas State after two years at Navarro, where he quickly endears himself to the QBs he is facing in practice. “He’s a nice guy–never shows you up at all” says one QB.

April 21, 2002–On the strength of a good senior year, Faggins is drafted in the Sixth Round by the Houston Texans. Charlie Casserly goes to shake his hand, but Petey bites on what he thinks is a fake and nearly trips up the stairs. Dom Capers throws up a little.

October 13, 2002–Makes NFL debut, playing special teams against Buffalo. Was heard remarking “aw, crap” as Buffalo’s returners ran past him time and time again. Rumored to have considered making tackle, if only the other players would stop moving.

August 31, 2003–Released by the Texans, then signed the following day to the practice squad. Finds the level of competition on the practice squad to be similar to the NFL, thus he still sucks.

November 9, 2003–Resigned to active roster and makes season debut against the Cincinnati Bengals. Does not notch a tackle and receives several phone calls from childhood friends after the game reminding him that he sucks. He cries himself to sleep that evening.

September 2, 2004–Realizes that he will be on the active roster for the whole season, barring injury. Wants to go out with friends to celebrate this revelation, but all of them have other things to do. Faggins is empty inside.

2005 season–Starts 10 games. Every now and then, he does something positive and people begin to wonder if he is starting to suck less.

2006 season–Fighting an injury for much of the year, the time he does get on the field is spent dissuading the notion from last season. At one point, he nearly gets in a slap-fight with David Carr when Carr suggests that even he could light up Faggins. The fight is avoided, however, when in a shocking turn of events three or four other teammates chime in in agreement with Carr.

May 2, 2007–Da Good, Da Bad, and DeMeco is founded. The first post features this nugget: “Second, Demarcus Faggins and Dexter McCleon and Von Hutchins combine for a Suckfactor* score of roughly 9–a number that Jamar Fletcher is unlikely to bring down.” The blog will spend the entire summer railing about how awful Faggins is, but the pleas will fall upon deaf ears.

September 30, 2007–Faggins’ play against the Atlanta Falcons prompts this entry: “After last week, the pro-Petey stance was that he had matched up with great receivers and, thus, had no chance. Well, he’s in the process of getting meat-shanked by Harrington and some no-name wideouts, and he has two PIs and two holds. In short, he’s playing like someone who sucks. Because he is someone who sucks. So, new rule at DGDB&D (which, I believe, is our first and only rule): Excuses and/or praise for Faggins are verboten. Seriously.”

November 13, 2007–The injury to Dunta Robinson does not get Petey back into the starting lineup, much to my happiness. Of course, I also lose my mind and go off on the following rant:

Which actully dovetails into the bigger point I wanted to make. Namely, that my dumb ass has been screaming since the inception of this blog about how bad Faggins is (pre-blog, actually, but I have no visual proof of that), yet it took the Texans’ cognoscenti OTAs, training camp, and multiple shitty games–including games where you could pin the majority of the blame for the loss on him–before they could see what we already knew.

How is this possible? How is it that people who, given the chance, would explain to us how they understand football in ways we never will could themselves be so clueless about something so obvious? I understand the desire for them to give him the benefit of the doubt. I even understand not selling him out to the media after the Panthers game. But I do not, cannot, and will not pretend to understand how they could keep rolling out one of the worst starters in the NFL week after week.

And that is exactly what they are admitting with a move like this one with Hutchins. They are saying that Petey is so bad as a starting corner that even a season-ending injury is not enough to move him up the depth chart; that they would rather un-convert a CB-cum-safety than let Petey stink up the joint as a starter. To which I can only say, “duh” and “thank god,” respectively.

I guess what I am looking for is some sort of mea culpa from the front office or even from Kubiak himself. I just want a little “ok, my bad…Faggins is just not capable of doing this and we are sorry we pretended otherwise, but, look, we’re doing something to fix it.” I know I will never get this, though, so I suppose this Hutchins thing will just have to do.

If Faggins is on the opening day roster in 2008, though, I reserve the right to have someone killed.

December 31, 2007–To ring in the New Year, Faggins wants to go to a party in his neighborhood. He changes his mind, however, when he sees that the invitation tells him to bring a “covered dish” and he has no idea what “covered” means. Instead, he sits at home by himself, watching the ball drop on television. This vision calms him for some reason.

February 8, 2008–After another full season of sucking, Faggins causes a blogger to snap and write a barely-funny timeline in lieu of a post about how Faggins is the Good Charlotte of the NFL.

Over the last two weeks, there have been roughly 15,163,167 maudlin stories written about how “after the Super Bowl, we enter the long, dark winter of the offseason.” Said stories almost always talk about how great football season is (which is true), how any weekend with football is infinitely greater than any weekend without (which is arguably, usually true), and how the Super Bowl is the culmination of that greatness (which is a complete fucking lie unless your favorite team happens to be in it).

Don’t get me wrong–I love the Super Bowl. But not for those reasons. I love the Super Bowl because it is a social event where people who would never even watch an NFL game come together with those of us who watch way too much to drink, shoot the shit, laugh at commercials, and eat copious amounts of food. (In fact, the reason I am awake right now, at 4:30 AM on a Sunday was because I had to get the smoker started so the pork will be ready for kickoff.) More than THAT, however, I love the Super Bowl because it is the end of the bullshit.

Do you have any idea how hard it is to find shit to write about your team in the two weeks of Super Bowlgasm? Pretty fucking hard. Like “teaching in Port Arthur without a bulletproof vest” hard. Hell, even Chron.com is overrun with stories about the Pats and Giants and the gap in Mike Strahan’s teeth. For these two weeks–or more, depending on your team–there has been little to no coverage of anything that wasn’t Super Bowl related. This makes sense, I guess, but it still blows.

But, come the end of tonight’s game, all that is over. We can finally get down to brass tacks when it comes to free agents and the draft. After the Super Bowl, we start getting 40-times and workout monsters. We get overpriced free agents and incentive-laden one year deals. In short, we get everything that matters to anyone who didn’t watch his favorite team today. The end of the season is nothing to bemoan, people. It’s something to look forward to with great anticipation. Because the end of the Super Bowl means the real beginning of he 2008 season.

Last Fortnight: 1-1

Regular Season Record: 156-91

Playoff Record: 8-2

Super Bowl Pick

New York Giants v. New England. Brady’s foot. Plaxico’s mouth. Moss‘ pimphand. Belichick’s hoodie. Coughlin’s ineptitude. Tiki’s vagina. Does that about cover every tired story or did I miss one? Like everyone else, had there not been the two-week layoff between the title games and today, I might have tried to convince myself into taking the Giants. That defense–especially the front four–has been playing out of their collective tits for weeks now. Plus, Eli seems to have made the “leap” from punchline to potential star.

Thankfully, the fourteen-day rest gave me time to come to my fucking senses. First, Eli is still a Manning, right? The only reason Peyton was even IN the Super Bowl last year is because Reche Caldwell sucks at historical levels. Manning did his damnedest to give that game back, but he couldn’t overcome Ol’ Bugeyes’ complete inability to catch TD passes. Second, Tom Brady is NOT a Manning. Instead, he’s apparently a golden god who gets to live the life every one of us pretended to be living when we created players in Madden. “Yeah, I’m the QB. I date Super Models. I’ve won a bunch of Super Bowls. Everyone wants to be me. I’m kind of a big deal.”

But the main reason I can’t pick NY? Tom Coughlin. It’s not that he sucks in a vacuum, though he does. It’s that he is woefully less talented than Belichick. This matchup, with this layoff, is like giving Stephen Hawking and Corky Thatcher two weeks and telling them “OK, now give me a mathematical model of a black hole and explain how it relates to dark matter.” I have few rules in life, but one of them is this–always bet against a retard. Pick: New England

Update: Or not.

Peeling off from the last post, let’s talk about safeties.

As Andy so righteously mentioned, there are distinct differences between strong and free safeties. In summary, the strong safety is generally more relied upon in run support, while the free safety is more relied upon in the passing game. Think of it this way. The strong safety is on the strong side of the formation, thus, his “coverage” responsibility is the TE. Again, this is very much a general statement as the defense is wont to mix things up in order to confuse the offense (unless your defensive coordinator is Richard Smith, natch).

So, with a number of SS options already on the roster, why TF would I believe that we’ll target a SS in the draft?

I can’t be the only person who did a double-take when America’s Penis Idol (aka, Will Demps) got the Pro-Bowl nod. His manos de piedras were awesome, if that’s a good thing when the QB basically hands you the ball (hint: it’s not). And, even though he is a strong safety, I expect you to catch the damn ball every now and then. Demps still brings the pain, but unless his contract needs are very reasonable - and I don’t expect them to be so - I still don’t think we sign him. I might be wrong.

So, that leaves us with a “plethora” of other SSs: Boulware? Brown? Earl? Harrison??? Hurl!

Personally, I don’t think we have position of greater need than the entire fucking defensive backfield. Dunta is hurt, and it’s not good. As the proud owner of a half dozen knee surgeries, I can speak from experience that they suck. Dunta didn’t have a meniscus repair: he ripped his hammy off the bone and had a torn ACL to boot. Fred Bennett (this dude seriously needs a nickname) didn’t embarrass himself while starting, for sure. SS clusterfuck? FS???

Speculating, but I think a post-injury Dunta can be reincarnated as a top-flight FS. This means, of course, that we simply need to sign a shutdown corner. I don’t see any real alternative here. We can go into the draft and hope that a Mike Jenkins or Aqib Talib falls to us, but I don’t want to head into 2008 depending on a second year and rookie at CB. This is compounded by the fact that I hope we trade down.

Dunta’s injury puts us at a real disadvantage heading into April. 8-8 was great, but we are a team with a huge number of needs. Our DB was completely ass-tastic in 2007, and we’ll be without Dunta for at least the first month, if not more. Demps is likely gone. When you consider that Gibbs doesn’t necessarily take OL early in the draft, I’m guessing that we take a SS sooner than later.

Now, go into the comments and rip me a new asshole for this post. Beetches.

With Jason Taylor injured and skipping out on the Pro Bowl, it seemed as if the gross injustice of Mario Williams being left off the roster was about to rectified. Just like it once seemed that Heath Ledger had a long, distinguished career ahead of him.

Instead, the powers that be have decided that Aaron Schobel will replace Taylor, leaving Mario still on the outside looking in. I will give someone a bright, shiny quarter if he or she can explain to me how Schobel’s 6.5 sack, 95 tackle season makes him a more deserving Pro Bowler than Mario Williams. There’s an extra quarter in it if you can explain it without using “because Schobel went down on Roger Goodell and swallowed.”

Bathroom at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, 10:45pm

Shannon Sharpe: Man…I really gotta take a thit. Thtupid airplane food.

(2 minutes later)

Sharpe: (singing to himself) Thwing loooowwww, thweet chariot, comin’ for to thumthin thumthin hoooome…

(Merril Hoge enters the next stall)

Hoge: Damn, son…that’s some FINE singin’. I love me an old-fashioned black spiritual. Makes me feel like I am back home in Idaho. Not that we had blacks…hey, who’s in there, anyway?

Sharpe: Thumone tryin’ to thit, dammit. Thut up and give a brotha thum peathe.

Hoge: Hooooo, boy! Listen to that lisp! You sound frutier than bag of Starburst, son! Wait…is that you, Vince?!? I always knew you’d sound gay!!! I’d ask you to toss me some toilet paper, but you couldn’t get it over here even if you wanted to. Isn’t that right, Mr. Overrated?

Sharpe: Motherfucker, ith me–Thannon Tharpe! Who the hell are you?

Hoge: It’s Merril. You know, ESPN Analyst Merril Hoge. Good lord, I never realized how gay you sound. If you’d have been tapping your foot there in the stall while you were singing, I’da thought you were hitting on me.

Sharpe: Whatever, man. Jethuth taught me to turn the other cheek and not hate juth becauth thumone ith diffent. (pauses, grunts, continues) Hey, thpeaking of hate, why the hell are you alwayth ripping on Vinthe? You jus make yourthelf thound ignurrant, cuz it thows you don unnerthand what he really bringth to hith team.

Hoge: What he brings to his team? You mean like twice as many INTs as TDs? (farts, laughs)

Sharpe: Thee! Thath what I am talk about! You mith the point–that he bringth intangimableth that thtupid thtatithticth can’t meathure!

Hoge: Please! That’s what everyone says, what’s that even mean? If the only thing he does well is stuff that can’t be measured, then how much stock can you put in the “intangibles?”

Sharpe: But he winth gameth!

Hoge: No, the Titans’ DEFENSE wins games. Their offensive line that turns shitheads like LenDale White into viable options wins games. Vince is just along for the ride and, if he manages not to screw shit up, gets all the credit for the win! How does that make any sense? But no matter how much I scream about it, people listen to you lisp about how great he is!

Sharpe: You are thuch an ignurrant hick. Taking all thothe hitth to the head mutht’ve methed you up. You thimply don’t know what you are talking about, becauth he ith that great. I mean, tho what if he can’t throw thirty yardth with accurathy? He ith deadly effithient on thothe eight yard dump offth. He creath playth with hith legth. He fortheth defentheth to adjutht. He hath a chanthe to be one of the betht dual-threat quarterbackth in hithtory. I’ve gotta be honetht, Merril–it really thoundth like thour grapeth, man. All you’ve done thince he wath drafted wath talk about how awful he ith.

Hoge: Maybe I am just sick of people making him into Jesus in Cleats! Maybe I fail to see what he does that is worth a first round pick, let alone a high first round pick. Or…maybe…

Sharpe: What ith it?

Hoge: Maybe I miss the old days, Shannon. The days when I could still play and quarterbacks were not supposed to run. That’s what the running backs were for. I miss the days when Neil O’Donnell was a god among men.

Sharpe: Neil O’Donnell wath never a god, Merril! Thath juth thtupid.

Hoge: You didn’t know Neil like I knew him, Shannon! No one did! See…NOW who is being the negative prick?!

(voice from the third stall)

Emmit Smith: Guys, guys, guys…let me be the void of return. All this negativosity is impending you from researching a mortgageable contraceptive.

Shannon: Oh, Jethuth Chritht.

There’s been a lot of talk about taking a running back with our first round pick in the 2008 Draft - with good cause - so I am going to take just a quick look behind and ahead at our RB experience.

2007 was the year of the Pie for the Texans running game. After signing a $400 quadrillion contract in the off-season, Ahman Green proved what most of the rest of us already knew: a RB over 30 years old = over the hill. And to get over that hill, he’ll need some oxygen. Now, it is true that Green looked great in the pre-season and in the first game. Sadly, though his longest rush of the year came on his first rush of the year, and he wound up with only 260 yards and a pathetic 3.7 YPC. This left the majority of the team’s carries to Ron Dayne.

It’s not like Dayne had a bad year. His YPC was marginally successful at 4.0, but the league averaged 4.1 YPC. In other words, the guy who got the ball the most for us was below average versus the league…including the super sucky Bears. As a team, the Texans ranked 24th in YPC and 22nd in total rushing yards. Yeah, as master of the obvious, let me state: we need to improve the running game.

As Matt mentions in his Zone Blocking Manifesto, Gibbs is unlikely to take an offensive lineman in the first round, though he has done this. With as deep of a crop of RBs as there are in this year’s draft, I’m not sold on taking a RB with our first pick, either. Look at how well 7th round pick Ahmad Bradshaw performed last night: RB talent can be found deep in the draft. We know that Gibbs alone with help the running game, but there’s no way in hell we should count on Barbaro Spencer being healthy, either. There are a ton of variables at play here to improve the running game, and I haven’t even talked about the rest of the offense yet.

Personally, I’m starting to convince myself that signing Tatum Bell might be a good idea, then use a pick (maybe a 2nd rounder if we trade back, or a 3rd rounder if not) to take a RB. Bell should come relatively cheaply, and he knows the system. Hell, in Denver, he averaged 4.9 YPC. Yes, he comes with some baggage (pouty, can’t handle a big workload, issues picking up the blitz), but he also gives us the home run ability that not a single other Texan on the roster has. After his 39 yard run, Dayne had to have a peach pie IVed into him. By drafting a RB a little later, we can still address the problem in the running game and plug a hole elsewhere.

Regardless (and assuming we re-sign him), if Dayne gets more than 40 carries in 2008, we will have to consider our off-season plan to address the running game a failure. And, no, I give no disclaimer due to injury. Simply, there are better options out there than Dayne, and we need to find them.

Source: nfl.com for stats.

Five announcements before we get to this weekend’s picks:

1. DGDB&D is pleased to announce the addition of bigfatdrunk as a contributing author. I have no idea how much he will post and I will let him handle any sort of introduction he might want to do, but rest assured that this addition was done solely to keep this place from becoming too highbrow. Not that we were really in danger of it.

2. Speaking of how not-highbrow we are, according to two different sources today, it seems that this little corner of the blogosphere is being blocked by some corporate firewalls as “pornographic content.” This blog may be many things, but I think we can all agree that it is not being overrun with naked people fucking. Even former Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart would not look at this site and say it was hard-core obscenity. Asinine, perhaps, but not porn.

3. Reminder: Richard Justice t-shirt contest is ongoing. Just under two weeks left to get your entries in. I would link to the other entries here, but I am lazy.

4. After checking some of the referral links and some emails and stuff, by my count, there are five females who regularly read this place. I am not sure if this is surprisingly high or surprisingly low. Either way, welcome.

5. Maybe I am crazy, but if the Colts are going so far as to say who “will be” the coach “if” Dungy retires, I’m guessing we won’t see Tony pontificating on the sidelines next year.

On to the picks…

Last Week: 3-1

Regular Season Record: 156-91

Playoff Record: 7-1

Playoffs Week 3 Picks:

San Diego @ New England. San Diego in the Super Bowl has about 1/1000th the attraction to anyone outside of Southern California, regardless of your stance on the Patriots. Even if you hate them, you’d much rather see them lose the Super Bowl and go 18-1 than go 17-1, right? And, if we get that Patriots/Packers matchup on Feb. 3, I don’t think it is a stretch to say it will break every conceivable sports television record. Pick: New England

New York @ Green Bay. I’m not saying that the powers-that-be want the Packers to win, but when you are scheduling a mid-January playoff game at Lambeau and you set the start time for 6PM EST, you are making some kind of statement. The wind chill at kickoff is expected to be somewhere around absolute zero and Brett Favre’s below-freezing home record is something like 562-1, so I really, really have a hard time believing Green Bay won’t win this game. I do, however, think there’s a fairly good chance that someone shatters upon impact like the T-1000. Pick: Green Bay

Well, ain’t this about a bitch? It seems that the NFL All-Pro First Team features nary a Texan. Not one. At defensive end, the All-Pro roster has Jared Allen and Patrick Kerney. A sane person could make a case for those guys over Mario, though I would certainly argue that Mario was more dominant than Kerney from play to play. Whatever.

The real injustice, however, comes at the linebacker position. Rather than take uberstud DeMeco Ryans, the All-Pro roster features Mike Vrabel, DeMarcus Ware, Lofa Tatupu, and Patrick Willis.

Seriously?

I mean seriously seriously?

Look…everyone is entitled to his or her own opinion, but if you honestly think Mike Vrabel had a better season than DeMeco Ryans, you are no longer entitled to offer your opinion without first prefacing it with “I’m a fucking idiot, but I think….”¹

This is the dumbest shit since Microsoft Bob.

¹ Or you could just wear a nametag that says “Tom.” It’s the same thing, really.

*Alt-title: “That’s when you know you’ve found somebody special–when you can just shut the fuck up for a minute and comfortably enjoy the silence.”

At the risk of sounding really lame, every now and then, I realize just how awesome my wife is. I’ve mentioned before that, when pregnant, she snores like a bulldog on quaaludes, right? Well, aside from occasionally teasing her about this, I never say much about it. I definitely don’t complain, as pregnant hormones have been known to trigger homicidal rages. Today, however, with no prompting from me, she came home with BreatheRight nasal strips and is currently wearing one (and snoring noticeably less) as I type this. I have no idea what I did to deserve someone that thoughtful, so I am just going to chalk it up to sexual prowess.

And, with that, we now return to your regularly scheduled general stupidity, already in progress.

Last Week: 10-6

Regular Season Record: 156-91

Playoffs Week 1 Picks:

Washington @ Seattle. The whole “let’s win this for Sean” angle is the stuff Disney movies are made of (if Disney movies included home invasions, machetes, and black people). I am trying to think of some way that they roll into Seattle and win up there. Short of going Kimo Van Oelhoffen on Matt Hasselbeck, I just don’t see it. So, I guess Washington is just going to have to settle for pouring out a little Starbucks for their fallen homie. Also, apropos of nothing, Shawn Alexander is a huge pussy. Pick: Seattle

Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh. I love that Willie Parker’s nickname is “Fast Willie.” In a world of professional athletes, how fast do you have to be to get that nickname? I like to think that he is to “fast” what Sam Adams is to “fat.” Or what Tony Romo is to “homosexual.” Of course, right now, calling him “fast” is like when they call fat guys “slim.” Or call Tony Romo “straight.” I think you see where I’m going with this. Pick: Jacksonville

New York Giants @ Tampa Bay. My friend Ren–a Giants fan–used to have this dream where Brandon Jacobs and Ron Dayne would be in the same backfield along with Jared Lorenzen. “The 800 lb. backfield” as he called it wouldn’t really serve a purpose, but was enough of a novelty to be worth wishing for. Didn’t happen. Then, more recently, he had this dream that the Giants would be god awful all year and he would finally be rid of Tom Coughlin. Didn’t happen. Currently, I am guessing that he would like to see the G-men blown out by 500 points in a last-ditch effort to get Coughlin fired. With his recent luck wishing for things, I wouldn’t bet on it. Pick: New York Giants

Tennessee @ San Diego. Good news, Titan fans! Vince might not play! Which means you actually have a chance to win this game! Exclamation points rule! Seriously, though…let’s not rush Vince back. I want him completely healthy for both Texans games next season. (Yes, I am bitter about them being in the playoffs.) Pick: San Diego

Certain discussions in football are incredibly dependent upon context. Take, for instance, “who is the greatest player of all time?” Without contextualizing the question, we can have different answers and all might be correct. If you are asking “who was the most dominant in his era,” the near-universal answer is Jim Brown. If you are factoring in which player had the biggest drop-off in talent between himself and the second-best player at his position, Lawrence Taylor is a popular answer. And if you are considering longevity coupled with a high level of performance, a case can be made for Larry Allen, Emmitt Smith, or even Brett Favre if a person is so inclined.

Discussing the draft is no different. Before we can have any sort of serious discussion regarding our needs (both perceived and real) and how the draft can meet them, we have to answer the following:

• What is the 2008 contribution from Dunta Robinson likely to be?
• What is the 2008 contribution from Charles Spencer likely to be?
• Is Travis Johnson going to be on the 2008 Texans?
• Which of our free agents are going to be re-signed?
• Which free agents from other teams are we looking at?
• Which role players/reserves from this year played well enough to challenge for an expanded role next year?
• Which starters played poorly enough to “earn” their outright releases?

Let’s try to tackle these. Everything from here is on is my best guess, so feel free to correct/mock/taunt me in the comments.

1. What is the 2008 contribution from Dunta Robinson likely to be?

The facts: According to this article (hat tip to reader Eric, who keeps me abreast of stuff almost daily), Dunta is taking rehab seriously and is progressing well.

“I know myself, and I know what I will do to get back on the field,” [Dunta said].

Unless you enjoy being wrong, don’t doubt him.

He might be moving slowly with a limp [as of now], but at some point next season, No. 23 will throw his body around Reliant Stadium, making hard-hit highlights.

***

The most likely scenario calls for Robinson, 25, to be placed on the physically unable to perform list entering camp. If he isn’t ready at the start of the season, he would not be eligible to be activated until after the sixth game.

Though he has been told he is ahead of schedule in the rehab, he smartly realizes to rush would be foolish.

Really bad grammar aside, no one is currently ruling out the possibility that he will be back on opening day. Now, given the severity of the injury–see video here–it might be a little much to expect a September return, but what if he is ready to go by October? With Dunta and Fred Bennett, it would make very little sense to draft a CB at 18. (This is doubly true when you consider that this draft isn’t exactly rife with big name cornerback talent–not only would be drafting redundantly, but you would be reaching to do it.)

One strange sub-question to this is what if Dunta does return as planned in 2008, but is not as fast as he was prior to the injury? Because I know we don’t want to hear it right now, but there is no guarantee that he can rehab his speed back to what it was (or even what it needs to be to be a top corner). If this happens, as a couple people said shortly after he was hurt, it might just make sense to pencil Dunta in as a free safety when he returns, allowing him to play the ball and still knock the piss out of people, but without expecting him to also turn and run with the Reggie Waynes of the world. In such a scenario, obviously that second corner position is an issue. I’m just not sure it is an issue to address via the draft.

Predicted answer to the question: I think Dunta returns in mid-October and, by November, is in “playing shape.” He might be slightly slowed, but any conversion of him to safety would be in 2009 at the earliest.

2. What is the 2008 contribution from Charles Spencer likely to be?

The Facts: If it seems like a really loooooong time since Spencer got hurt, you are not imagining things. He had surgery on the broken leg on September 18, 2006, meaning that 103 weeks will have passed between that date and opening day 2008. Now, of course, the good news is that there was some talk and hope going into 2007 Camp that Spencer would play at some point this past year. While that didn’t happen (obviously), the team website reports that Barbaro is expected to participate in the team’s offseason conditioning program.

To have been cleared for such workouts, Spencer’s rehab would have to be completed to his personal physician’s satisfaction and he would have to have been evaluated by the team doctor. So, apparently, 2 out of 2 medical professionals agree that Spencer is healthy enough for NFL workouts. That’s a start. Much like with Dunta, however, there is no way of knowing short of seeing Spencer play whether he was able to rehab to the level of an NFL left tackle.

Also similar to the Dunta situation, if Spencer does not have the quickness and explosiveness needed to take on professional defensive ends, the team is not without options. Fred Weary is a free agent and Chester Pitts was less than stellar for much of the year, so moving Spencer to a guard spot is certainly a possibility. Given his bulk and athleticism (6-5, 350 compared to 6-4, 307 for Weary and 6-2, 320 for Pitts), lining him up beside Eric Winston or a real–read: not Ephraim Salaam–left tackle would certainly be an asset to our running game (unless it is foolishly decided by the powers above that we are going to convert to a pure zone blocking scheme).

Predicted answer to the question: I think that Spencer will be at 100% of whatever his post-surgery ability is and that Kubiak will give him every chance to win back the LT spot. For better or worse, unless Spencer is visibly way too slow, has some sort of major surgery-related setback, or Jake Long/Sam Baker falls to us at 18, I’m guessing that Spencer is our guy going into next season.

3. Is Travis Johnson going to be on the 2008 Texans?

Facts: Travis is a loud-mouthed, under achieving jerk. While his taunting of Trent Green was hilarious (to me), his play has never been such that we can absorb his stupid penalties and brain farts.

Prediction: This organization values “character” and “appearances” more than just about any team ever, so I really can’t see how Travis is on this roster come September. He will be gone either through trade (if we can find a sucker) or outright release closer to June 1, either of which is fine because we need a real nose tackle anyway.

4. Which of our free agents are going to be re-signed?

Facts: The following are my predicted fates for the unrestricted free agents:

• Roc Alexander–gone w/ no offer
• Charlie Anderson–signed
• Kevin Barry–gone w/ no offer Oops.
• Mark Bruener–gone? retired? neither?
• Danny Clark–signed
• Andre’ Davis–signed
• Ron Dayne–signed
• Will Demps–signed
• Glenn Earl–gone w/no offer
• Von Hutchins–gone b/c offer withdrawn after Wynn signs
• ND Kalu–signed
• Cedric Killings–gone (retired)
• Jason Simmons–gone w/ no offer
• Matt Turk–signed
• Fred Weary–gone b/c unable to perform in 2008
• Dexter Wynn–signed

And for the restricted free agents:

• CC Brown–signed
• Anthony Maddox–signed
• Jerome Mathis–gone b/c he’s a fragile wuss
• Scott Jackson–signed

Quick Review:

Unrestricted Free Agents have four or more seasons of service and have reached the end of their contract. They are free to sign with any club through the first day of the first scheduled NFL training camp. After that, their exclusive rights revert to their original club (if that club made a June 1 tender to these players) and that team has until the Tuesday after the 10th week of the season to sign the player. If the player does not sign, he must continue to sit out the rest of the season.

Restricted Free Agents have completed three accrued seasons of service and have reached the end of their contracts. They have received offers from their old clubs, but can negotiate with any team until April 21. If a new team’s offer is accepted, the old club has the right to match the offer and keep the player. If they do not match the offer, the old team might receive a compensatory draft pick (subject to how much the new team’s offer was).

Notes regarding predicted answer to the question: I have been going back and forth on whether they will sign Mark Bruener. He’s a great run blocker, but he’s old as hell, so it wouldn’t shock me to see them carry Joel Dreessen if they want a third TE or for them to keep Bruener because they release Putzier. I think the Von Hutchins/Dexter Wynn thing comes down to who signs first and, god, I hope it’s Wynn. I think Demps wins out over Glenn Earl and I think that is a good thing. Finally, I think they keep Turk for another year unless someone releases a top-tier punter for some odd reason.

5. Which free agents from other teams are we looking at?

Facts: We have a better free agent budget than in some recent offseasons, but we are still not free and clear of some of the dead money (Domanick Davis Williams, anyone?) Keeping in mind the overriding philosophy of not over-spending on big names and putting character at the forefront of any player evaluation, here are some names at key positions that I could see us considering (my favorite at each position is linked to player info):

RB–Musa Smith, Derrick Ward, LaBrandon Toefield, Michael Bennett, and Justin Fargas. Notable omissions–Michael Turner (price), Julius Jones (not good)

DE–Marques Douglas, Bobby McCary, Travis LaBoy. Notable omissions–Jared Allen (character, price), Justin Smith (price)

DT–Ethan Kelley, Isaac Sopoaga. (This position is likely better filled through the draft) Notable omissions–Albert Haynesworth (character, price), Pat Williams (I was an idiot and overlooked his extension signed in September, so he’s not a free agent like I had been saying)

S–Gibril Wilson, OJ Atogwe, Mike Doss. (This position is extremely thin in free agency this year) Notable omission–Ken Hamlin (slight character concerns, overpriced due to Pro Bowl)

CB–Keith Smith, Domonique Foxworth, Nnamdi Asomugha. (Yes, I realize Asomugha’s predicted price tag, but if the team thinks Dunta will not be back in 2008 or will not be back to his old self, I think Smithiak realizes the value of a shutdown corner. Plus, I am hoping that his low INT total this year will temper the cost.) Notable omission–Asante Samuel (will think he’s worth too much and won’t talk to smaller-market teams)

OT–Jordan Gross, Stacey Andrews, Adrian Jones. Notable omissions–Flozell Adams (age), Cory Lekkerkerker (not enough Ks for jersey if he’s signed)

6. Which role players/reserves from this year played well enough to challenge for an expanded role next year?

Facts: The injuries to 94.35% of our roster this season gave us an extended look at some guys who under normal circumstances would have gotten nothing but scout team and special teams reps. Honestly, this was the one silver lining to come out of the bubonic plague that struck our locker room.

Not counting free agent guys like Andre Davis and Charlie Anderson, the three guys who jump to mind are Earl Cochran, Kasey Studdard, and Zac Diles. Last one first, Kubiak said recently that Diles had shown an ability to possibly play the other LB positions, so I could see him getting a chance to earn the SLB position in camp next year. This is not ideal–I’d much rather have a pure SLB over there–but if we can’t resign Charlie Anderson and Danny Clark, it might not be the worst thing to happen. Cochran showed a real nose for the ball every time he got in there and he even earned a starting role for the last game of the season. Studdard is a coaching staff favorite and showed real potential on the interior.

Predicted answer to the question: If the team is able to get a big nose tackle either through the draft or through free agency, it would not shock me to see Cochran given a chance at the starting defensive end gig next summer. I like the guy, so this would not bother me. Diles’ opportunity to earn a starting role is going to be limited to a total departure of the other SLBs on the roster or the untimely death of DeMeco Ryans. Finally, Studdard should be in line to compete for an OG position, especially if Spencer is playing OT. There’s also a chance that Brandon Harrison or Brandon Frye could compete, but, again, that is going to depend more on who leaves this offseason than what either actually did during the 2007 campaign.

7. Which starters–other than Travis Johnson–played poorly enough to “earn” their outright releases?

Facts: Anthony Weaver is the highest-paid player on this team, yet he was not even among the five best DEFENSIVE players we had this year. That is unacceptable. Shawn Barber started off fine, but injury derailed him. Still, that might be enough to earn a ticket out. Ahman Green I cannot discuss without getting angry. DeMarcus Faggins should lead this list, but he seems to have some sort of soft spot in the hearts of the leadership. Jeb Putzier…I’m pretty sure he is still on the team, though you wouldn’t know it by watching the last 8 games. Jordan Black was atrocious from day 1. Mike Flanagan apparently subscribed to the Jordan Black newsletter. Finally, Michael Boulware was decent on special teams, but horrid in coverage. If you listen real closely, you can hearing him whiffing on another assignment as I write this.

Obviously, there are salary cap implications for cutting any of these guys. Based on the best numbers I could find, the cap hit for each guy would be as follows (and remember that you can split guys cut on June 1 over two seasons as well as 2 guys cut prior to June 1 but designated as such):

• Weaver: $8.1MM
• Barber: $1.4MM
• Green: $3.75MM
• Faggins: $425K
• Putzier: $950K
• Black: $900K
• Boulware: $0 (unless there are some hidden bonuses that I missed)
• Flanagan: $1MM
• (Johnson: $2.7MM)

Keeping Weaver is going to cost us $6.2MM against the cap, so it depends entirely on whether losing him is worth roughly $2MM plus whatever his replacement costs. Then again, if he is one of the June 1 guys, you are saving money ($4.05MM vs. 6.2MM) in the short term. Knowing this, I think he’s either gone or will be “asked” to restructure his deal. Same deal with Green, though I say it is less likely that he is given the chance to restructure because he is cheaper to cut than to keep ($3.75MM vs. 5.1MM). Deciding whether to keep the others listed here depends less on dollars and cents and more on long-term planning for the franchise.

Predicted answer to the question: Like I said, I think Weaver is either not a Texan or is not under the same contract come September, but I am betting it is the latter. I think Green is giving his walking papers, which he will carry with a limp. Faggins stays around be he’s cheap, they like him for some reason, and because God likes to torture me like that from time to time. Putzier…I’m going back and forth on. I think he’s gone if they keep Bruener and vice versa. Boulware and Flanagan are done. Barber stays because he’s versatile and is good leadership for some of the younger ‘backers.

*****

So, about 2700 words later, there you have it. One obsessive-compulsive fan’s look at the background questions that have to be answered before we can form a coherent draft strategy. I’m sure I missed something in there.

Ladies and gentlemen, allow me to introduce your non-losing Houston Texans.  There were a lot of statements made in this game, both good and bad. At the end of the day, however, the fact that we won our eighth game overshadows every single thing I am about to write.

• Dear Texans Fans, You’re welcome. Love, Andre Davis. Seriously…that was amazing. Hell, it was Hester-esque. Between what he offered as a WR when Andre Johnson was out, how well he played on punt coverage (highly underrated), and his contributions as a kick returner, we would be ridiculously stupid not to sign him to a multi-year deal. As an added bonus, signing him means we don’t even have to consider re-signing Jerome Mathis, which is good if only because Mathis might hurt himself signing the contract.
• Dear Matt, How’s that for “not good?” Love, Darius Walker. I apologize for doubting you. No, you might not have the fastest top-end in town and, no, you might not be able to get the corner against a fast defense, but you have fantastic vision and you don’t dance around behind the line. Like I said over in the Game Thread, it seems like Walker hits his top speed–whatever that may be–instantly. So, what he might lack as an open field runner, he more than makes up for between the tackles. Fact: If you take away his 41 yard run, Walker still averaged 5 yards per carry; if you include that run, he averaged 8.6. Nice.
• Dear Petey Faggins, I don’t think your pre-game pointers helped. Love, Von Hutchins. Wow…as surprisingly good as Walker was, that’s how shockingly bad Hutchins looked. It got to the point early on that I half expected Garrard to come to the line, find Hutchins, and start laughing before the snap. Even Tina Turner wasn’t abused like that.
• Dear Von Hutchins, Thanks for the opportunity! Love, Dexter Wynn. Much like how Kubiak pulled Faggins out of the Atlanta game to try and stop the bleeding, Wynn replaced Hutchins for the most part after the second TD that Hutchins coughed up. Dexter looked surprisingly solid, especially when you consider the size he was giving up to the Jacksonville WRs. He wasn’t perfect and you sure wouldn’t want to go into the season with him as your CB2, but he might have gotten a leg up on Hutchins in the “which one will we re-sign” battle (both are unrestricted free agents).
• Dear Sage Rosenfels, About that whole trading-for-you thing…nevermind. Love, NFL GMs with QB Problems. Short of sporting bouffant hair and wearing white gloves, I don’t know that it would be possible for a player to damage his trade value more than Sage has the last two weeks. While he wasn’t atrocious or anything to day, he wasn’t anywhere approaching “good.” Even the TD pass to Daniels was on a poor throw and required a great grab by the big TE. Of course, he later felt the need to hit an opposing DB between the numbers for his weekly INT. He’s still a good backup, but any talk (by me) of getting a third-round or better pick for him or any talk (by others) about a QB controversy needs to be put on hold. Let’s all take a deep breath and move on.
• Dear NFL QBs, Be afraid in 2008. Very afraid. Love, Mario Williams. No, our resident sackmaster didn’t get the one he needed to pass Patrick Kearney, but Jacksonville was clearly concerned with him from the first snap. This was some of the most blatant holding of Mario we’ve seen this year, but the refs seem to have already put him in the category of elite pass rushers that can be held with near-impunity. I don’t think it’s a stretch to expect at least 18 sacks out of Mario next season. Reggie who?
• Dear Richard Smith, How did you manage to make Quinn Gray look like Peyton Manning? Love, Texans Fans. Here’s a thought–and I think we’ve been over this before–but when your secondary is getting worked like Jenna Jameson’s labia and you are letting a backup QB throw for four TDs, maybe you shouldn’t completely abandon the blitz. Because, maybe I am crazy, but it seems like you would have seen over the past month how much better this entire defensive unit is when you are blitzing and you would have used that knowledge against the Jags so they didn’t pick you apart with their gigantic WRs against your patchwork defensive backfield. Just sayin’.
• Dear Rick Smith, Please get rid of Richard Smith before he forces me to climb a clock tower and start shooting student nurses. Love, Matt.
• Dear Rick Smith, I think I deserve more than $1.3MM next season. Love, Ron Dayne. The Trayne ended this game with 88 yards (4.2/carry) and 2 more TDs, giving him a team-high 773 yards (career high) and 6 rushing TDs. He also added career highs in receptions (17) and receiving yards (112). If we can get him back for any combination of bonus and salary under $2MM/year, I think we have to.

Other tidbits

• When he wasn’t busy misidentifying Texans or mispronouncing names, Dick Enberg mentioned that the forty-two points scored today was a new franchise record. This breaks the old record of 34, set against Carolina in week 3. Ladies and gentlemen, we have an offense.
• If I told you before the season started that Darius Walker would have more rushing yards than Ahman Green and that the two of them combined would have fewer than Ron Dayne, what would you have guessed our record to be?
• Chad Stanley, 2006: 41.6 yards per punt, 36.7 net. Matt Turk, 2007: 41.7 yards per punt, 37.9 net. Yet, despite their similarities, there were only a couple games where Turk worried me, as opposed to sixteen where I was concerned by Stanley. Weird.
• We won despite being outgained by 91 yards and having 3:34 less in time of possession. God bless Andre Davis.
• 8-8. Never has symmetry looked so nice.

Resident rocket surgeon Travis Johnson was fined $5000 by the NFL Friday for his ridiculous late hits last Sunday. The “normal” fine for such two-foul situations is $7500, but the league ruled that the first late hit was an incorrect call. (Meaning they ignored that the entire play happened completely in Travis’ line of sight and there was no possible way he could have thought the play was still live.) They also chose to ignore the blatant helmet-to-helmet hit that Johnson delivered in between the two penalties and for which he was not flagged. Lame.

Johnson offered his own erudite opinion on the matter.

I didn’t go out there to purposely hurt anybody, I am just out there playing hard.

For the moment, I’ll take him at his word. After all, one would like to believe that no NFL player is intentionally delivering cheap shots. Johnson continued:

I was in the air when the whistle blew. You win some, and you lose some.

Wait…what? You lying sack of donkey turd! I just went back and watched the hit. Not only were you not “in the air” when it happened, you took at least one extra step toward the ball carrier after the play was obviously completed AND you lowered your head to the point that you’d have to have an IQ of about 8 to not realize you were hitting a man when he was on the ground! Besides, just like the Manning play, this one was right in front of you, yet you took two-and-a-half steps after the point where Fletcher was obviously going down. You sir, are as classless as Albert Haynesworth, but without any sort of performance that would make us swallow our pride and accept your stupidity as the price for having your stellar play.

Despite the fact that Kubes said he liked your effort and intensity, I still hold out hope that they will change the locks while you are out one day and not give you a new key. Don’t make me get my girl, Durga, on the line. You wouldn’t like her when she’s angry.

(h/t to Texans Tail Gate for the link)

Give yourself 100 bonus points–redeemable for absolutely dick–if you recognized the quote without Googling it.

Last week: 11-4

Season: 146-85

Week 17 Picks

New England @ New York Giants. So, I’ve been thinking–I have been vocally in favor of the Pats going undefeated all season, just to piss off Indy fans and to shut up the decrepit old fucks from the ‘72 Dolphins. These things please me. At the same time, the idea of Bill Simmons crowing non-stop about how great this team is makes my skin crawl. My hatred for the Colts still outweighs everything here, so if push comes to shove and I have to choose, I’m backing the Pats. IF, however, the Colts lose before they play the Pats, put me firmly in the “lose, you bastard New England shitbags!” camp. Pick: New England

San Francisco @ Cleveland. Bah. Piss on you Derek Anderson. All you had to do was win and Sunday’s Colts/Titans tilt would be meaningless. I hate you for this. Pick: Cleveland

Detroit @ Green Bay. Speaking of choke jobs, how about that thrashing Chicago put on Green Bay last week? Who saw that coming? Certainly not this guy. I am hoping that it was the wake-up call the Pack needed in order to have their collective minds right when it comes time to beat the ‘girls. God, I hate the Cowboys. Fucking homos. Pick: Green Bay

New Orleans @ Chicago. If you are the Bears, are you kicking yourself more for keeping the wrong running back or for not trying to actually develop Kyle Orton over the past years? Or maybe that botched negotiation with Lance Briggs that is going to cause him to walk this offseason. Pick: New Orleans

Jacksonville @ JUGGERNAUT. What’s that old saying…dance with the fat bitch you rode in on? Something like that. Pick: Houston

Carolina @ Tampa Bay. Hello, Vegas? Yes, can put $200 on “David Carr and Jeff Garcia will go together to Georgie’s Alibi in St. Pete?” Thanks. Pick: Tampa Bay

Buffalo @ Philadelphia. This is one of those games where you can make a strong argument for either team. I’ll save you the tedium of reading that, however, and just say that I prefer wings to cheesesteaks. Oh, I also prefer long-suffering fans to insufferable pricks. (But I loved it when they cheered Michael Irvin’s injury. I am fickle like that.) Pick: Buffalo

Cincinnati @ Miami. It is an accomplishment, albeit a dubious one, when you can be the absolute least interesting game in a week of uninteresting games. Congrats, losers. Pick: Cincinnati

Seattle @ Atlanta. Unless my calculations are off, losing this game would lock Atlanta into the second spot in the draft, while a win could have them as low as fifth or sixth. Because life hates Arthur Blank, I’m going with the Falcons to win convincingly. Pick: Atlanta

Minnesota @ Denver. Strange but true fact: I grew up in a town that had a population of 72 people. Which has nothing to do with this game, but is nearly as interesting as the current Broncos team. Pick: Minnesota

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore. Baltimore’s offense is like Natalee Holloway’s killers. They have to exist, you are pretty sure you know the players involved, but no one seems to be able to find them. Now, I’m not suggesting that he did it, but…has anyone questioned Ray? Pick: Pittsburgh

Dallas @ Washington. Joe Gibbs has his best player murdered, his starting QB lost for a chunk of the year, and faulty offensive and defensive lines, and he still has his team on the brink of the playoffs? Now, either he’s the greatest coach ever or the NFC really is that much easier right now. I’m going with B. Pick: Washington

Kansas City @ New York Jets. HERM BOWL!!!! Pick: Kansas City

San Diego @ Oakland. You have to figure that LDT will play little, if at all, in this game, but will get almost all the carries in the postseason. That being the case, Michael Turner is basically getting a chance to make the last image anyone has of him prior to his free agency a positive one. If he gets close to 200 yards, that $6MM/year pricetag is going to seem awful reasonable to someone. And it’s going to have yours truly listening to the Musa Smith talk and trying to convince people that Felix Jones is really that good.

St. Louis @ Arizona. That thing I said earlier about Cinci and Miami being the least interesting game? This was its closest competition. Unless you are a fan of either of these teams, I can’t think of a single reason to watch this one. Hell, even if you are a fan, you might want to consider flipping back and forth between this one and a real game. Pick: Arizona

Tennessee @ Indianapolis. It’s pretty well-documented that both this blog and BRB are not fans of Albert Haynesworth. With any luck, he could be playing his last game as a Tennessee Babyeating-Sisterfucker. I don’t know about you, but I’d much rather hate him once every three years than twice a year. Now, if he could just end Peyton’s career on his way out the door, we’ll have some nice parting gifts waiting. Pick: Indianapolis

I’m guessing we all sort of assumed as much but, in case you had any doubts, Kubes said yesterday that Sage Rosenfels will start Sunday’s finale.

I’m going to start Sage. Sage will be our starter going into the game. It will be a game-time decision on Matt on whether he’ll be our backup or the third. Over the course of the next couple of days, we’ll see.

Possible Translation: Sage’s trade value took a hit last week, so I am going to run him back out there, hope they play their second-team defense, and give him a chance to bring that stock back up. Also, I’d be a fool if I let Matt Schaub back out there before his shoulder was 100%. Since I already managed to get Andre Johnson hurt this year, I think I’ll pass on taking another stupid risk. Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to go remind everyone that Mario was the correct pick.

In all seriousness, though (or at least as much seriousness I can muster), this is the right move. As much as we would like to win this game, it would almost be a pyhrric victory if Matt did further damage to the separated shoulder (or suffered another concussion). Besides, right now, at this exact moment in time, I can’t honestly look any of you in the virtual eye and say that starting Matt gives us any sort of increased likelihood of winning.

Which is NOT to say that I don’t still think Schaub is the guy, both in terms of short-term competition with Sage and long-term health of the franchise.

Unless I am missing something, we have four answers to the question of “What about Sage?” 1. We can hold on to him, content in knowing that we have “The Best Backup in Football” should Schuab get injured. 2. We can take advantage of his reputation as “The Best Backup in Football” and use it to net ourselves players or draft picks to fill more pressing needs. 3. We can make him the starter based on what he’s done this year as compared to Schaub. 4. We can hold on to him and let him and Schaub battle it out next summer because we believe both of them are capable of being an NFL starting QB.

Numbers 1 and 2 both have their merits, but we’ll deal with them in a moment. To my way of thinking, #3 is asinine unless you really, REALLY believe that we messed up by trading for Schaub, which is a pretty hard position to defend and is generally shared only by the same sort of people that believe Tony Hollings was a smart pick. Number 4, though…that’s what this discussion is really about, isn’t it? Because there are intelligent people who honestly believe that Sage is capable of being the starter and that whichever one of the two QBs who wins the battle can be the future of this organization. To those people, I have to say that I respectfully disagree. (To the people in the #3 camp, I disagree, but there is no respect involved.)

I’ve said it before, but there absolutely had to be a reason that Matt Schaub was the most sought backup QB in the league before last offseason. True, he did not have much of a body of work to support that lofty position, but NFL heads had to have seen something they liked in him to drive his pricetag up as high as it went. And in his first two games of this season, when the team was reasonably healthy and there was a semblance of a running game, many fans (myself included) were thrilled about how great the Matt Schaub era was going to be. So, yeah, there have been flashes of starting-caliber ability from Matt. Additionally, red zone INTs notwithstanding, there is no substantial body of evidence that suggests Matt isn’t capable of being a starting QB.

On the other hand, for all Sage has done this year, can we really overlook the fact that in four years of mini-camps and training camps (not to mention the 13 games had played in) he couldn’t beat out such Dolphin luminaries as Jay Fielder, Ray Lucas, Brian Griese, AJ Feeley, and Gus Frerotte? Don’t you think that, if Rosenfels had shown even a glimmer of the ability to be a starter, that he would not have been the one constant on the roster as the Dolphins brought in all those other guys in an effort to find a real QB?

Is this dispositive? Of course not. There is nothing that says future performance has to be directly correlated with past performance. Besides, in theory, it is perfectly believable that a guy languished in an organization so bereft of common sense that he never really had a chance to prove his ability. But, while that sounds nice in theory, can someone point me to one guy–just one–who did next to nothing for four years on a winning team (the Dolphins were over .500 three of Sage’s four years) only to be reborn as a bona fide starter somewhere else? I honestly can’t think of one. The closest I can come up with off the top of my head is Rich Gannon in his four years with Kansas City, but that’s a crappy comparison because (a) Rich had already been in the league seven years when he got to KC, (b) he played much more during his time in KC than Sage did in Miami, and (c) anyone with any sense was screaming for Rich to remain the starter over Elvis Grbac. Still, I suppose Gannon is an example of a very late bloomer, so at least that part holds.

On the contrary, you can think of a number of guys who were thought to be better than they’d shown with their previous teams, only to also suck upon arrival at their new NFL addresses, even if they initially showed promise with the second team. David Carr had some Carolina fans calling for Jake’s head based on some training camp games. How’d that work out? People actually believed that Joey Harrington could be the guy in Atlanta based on…umm…I actually don’t know. Brian Griese has gotten multiple shots like this, a