Archive for the ‘2008 Combine’ Category

Making an ass out of all of us

Apr 23, 2008 2008 Combine, 2008 Season, DRC, Posts that list too many players, Predictions Guaranteed To Go Wrong, The Future

About two weeks ago, grungedave emailed me, asking:

Is this the most “low-key” build-up the NFL Draft in more than a decade?

After I thought about it for a minute, I had to admit he was right. I honestly can’t remember so little hype and talk surrounding the Texans’ upcoming picks. But, you know what? I think this is a good sign.

Here’s what I mean: The reason that we are not hanging on every mock draft and obsessing over this year like past drafts is because we are low enough in the draft that we can only speculate as to who might be there–we have no guarantees of anyone’s availability. Even more importantly, though, we don’t have any one hole that is so glaring that we HAVE to draft to fill it. Hell, if last year’s “8-8 despite having more injuries than the 4077th” showed anything, it’s that this team has a good bit of talent all over the place, meaning that this draft (and future drafts) will be used to tweak and improve rather than to overhaul.

In that vein, I agree with what BFD said–acting like this first pick is make-or-break for this team is ridiculous. If history has shown us anything, it is that NO first round pick is really make-or-break; some have a bigger impact than others, but all are just 1/53rd of the team. Hell, we survived Zoolander, didn’t we?

Speaking of BFD’s last post, in the comments thereto, Stephanie opines the following:

Actually, I don’t put happy faces on picks. However, I do think that most draft addict fans are total morons about the draft. Everybody thinks that if Their Guy doesn’t get picked, and the team drafts The Guy They Really Didn’t Want, then the world will come to the end and they have to drop a bunch of F bombs and the like.
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And the truth is even teams with all the information in the world, with coach’s tape and interviewing these guys, etc., teams often get it wrong. So I just figure if the teams can’t get it right with the best information out there, then how are draft addict fans any more likely to get it right when they are mostly depending on combine stats and reading second or third hand or totally madeup information about the players on the interwebs.

On some level, I agree with this. After all, I can’t say for sure whether Phillip Merling or Calais Campbell will be the better pro. I can’t tell you whether Leodis McKelvin is really going to be the best corner in this draft or whether Aqib Talib is a great fit for our system. And I sure as shit can’t say with 100% certainty that Jonathan Stewart is not a better fit for our new ZB system than Felix Jones. All I can do in any of these cases is guess.

THAT SAID, there is a guess and there is an informed guess. The former, I think we all agree, is useless. The latter, however, has some merit and provides a somewhat rational basis for arguing about who we should or shouldn’t take.

As to Steph’s larger point, that teams often whiff on the pick, so who are we to argue with them in the first place if they can’t get it right with all the available info, I think there is one glaring problem with that theory. Namely, it assumes that teams are always making rational decisions based on independent evaluations of their team and the players in the draft.

That would be great if it were true, but I have my doubts. Case in point: Last year, Miami, despite needing a QB as well as help in any number of other spots, inexplicably took Ted Ginn, Jr., at 9, with Brady Quinn, Amobi Okoye, Patrick Willis, and Michael Griffin (among others) still available. Even at the moment they made the pick, the collective response from everyone else was “What the fuck?” The only explanation I can come up with is the Dolphins management bought into the hype surrounding Ginn’s speed and thought they needed him. Had they taken an honest look at their team, however, he would not even have been on their radar at 9.

This is not really an isolated incidence, either. Every year, some team buys into a 40-time or a ESPN fluff piece and takes a guy that doesn’t fit their system or that plays a position they don’t really need to fill when there are other players universally-accepted as “better” still available. Note, I am not saying that fans aren’t just as likely to buy into something and get a semi for players that aren’t really that good. We are all fallible when it comes to this process. Still, I don’t think it is “dumb” to boo your team and bitch about a pick if, for example, the Texans took Brian Brohm at 18.

So, as I said above, I can’t tell you whether Merling or Campbell will be the better pro, but I can point out that–if they are both on the board at 18–all of the Combine numbers point to Merling as being a better player, but that his sports hernia surgery in the offseason should at least make you consider Campbell’s freakish build and possibly overlook his poor combine before you roll the dice. On the other hand, I can mention that Merling has the ability to slide inside and play under tackle if you want him, which Campbell cannot. Likewise, I can’t tell you whether McKelvin is the best corner in the draft, but I can tell you that I would prefer not to take a 5-10/190 CB if Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is available because we play against some big, physical receivers when we play Jacksonville and I think he’d be abused. (And I can point out that Talib has some drug issues (multiple marijuana test failures) and that his hip work is sub-par at best.)

But even these comparison in a vacuum don’t present the whole story, obviously. Determining whether a draft pick was “right” or “wrong” or “absolutely shitty” requires forming a set of assumptions and working rules about your team and your draft. Differences in opinions here are what cause me to want Balmer/R-Cromartie/Merlin, Lee to want Stewart, Dave and BFD to want a corner, Mark to want an OT, Stephanie to want the player most likely to rescue homeless animals, Chris to want…I actually have no idea who Chris wants, and Tim to want the best available at a number of positions. So, without further ado, here are the assumptions I am working under (primarily with respect to the first round). Feel free to correct me and/or realize my brilliance and change your own opinions accordingly.

  1. 1. Barring the shocking drop of DRC to 18, I do not want a corner in the first round. We just blew our wad throwing cash after Jacques Reeves. I realize that the rookie money comes from a different pool than the money used to pay Frenchy, but I am of the opinion that drafting someone to fill the exact same hole you just spent your biggest free agent dollars on is the equivalent of pawning your car to play blackjack and then taking out a second mortgage to try and win back the car money. I assume Ray Rhodes saw something he liked in Reeves and, thus, persuaded the powers that be to sign him. If that’s the case and if we are going to blitz more often like we did in the second half of the season last year, it could very well be that Reeves is a good corner for us. I’m willing to take that chance for a year and use our first-rounder elsewhere.
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  3. 2. My only exception to the assumption in #1 is DRC. That is because I don’t think you get too many chances as a franchise to draft that kind of physical freak to play defensive back. His cousin is an absolute game changer (see, e.g., the game we played against them) and I am willing to overlook the “good money after bad” theory if you can get someone who can single-handedly change games in the secondary.
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  5. 3. Going along with #1, part of what could make Reeves a viable (or better) corner for us is putting him in a position where he’s not trying to cover Reggie Wayne for 5 seconds. The easiest way to do this is to improve the defensive line so that the front four can get better pressure and not have to rely on the SLB as a fifth rusher all the time. Knowing that, the question becomes whether you’d prefer a new DE opposite Mario knowing that Travis Johnson will likely be your nose tackle or whether you’d take a Kentwan Balmer and see if Anthony Weaver bounces back and/or if Earl Cochran continues to show the nose for the ball that he had near the end of last year.
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  7. 4. Building off of #3, do you take a Philip Merling at 18 because of his versatility, knowing that you could then run a number of different d-line formations out there based on whether he was at DE or UT? I think you have to consider this approach if you are not planning on getting both a DE and a DT in this draft.
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  9. 5. On the offensive side of the ball, many pundits (and a number of blogger/blog commenters) have us taking a LT first. What those people don’t seem to be giving any weight to is the fact that we just brought in the GURU of Zone Blocking–a man who has decades of turning cast-off linemen into integral cogs in the system–as well as a number of guys who would seem to fit his system. And we have a LT (Barbaro) who has never really gotten a chance to play that is due to return (though he is probably not a good fit for the new system). So why not give Gibbs and the current pieces (both returning and free agent) a year so we see just what we do have and what we need to address? It is entirely conceivable that we have all the pieces we need currently on the roster.
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  11. 6. Ditto that with running back. We have our albatross from last year (Batman) returning along with Kubiak’s mancrush (Darius Walker) and our newest addition (Chris Brown). Why not wait a year to see if (a) Green has a decent year left in him or (b) one of the other two guys can thrive in a ZBS? If you MUST draft a RB, at least wait until the third or fourth–why draft one when you don’t know exactly how our system is going to shake out?

So, yeah. Those are the assumption I am working under. What say the rest of you?

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Totally unrelated, but I need some advice. Can someone recommend a good bourbon/whisky/whiskey for someone who generally avoids brown liquors like a toothy blowjob?

A dog’s got personality. Personality goes a long way.

Mar 11, 2008 2004 Draft, 2006 Draft, 2007 Draft, 2008 Combine, 2008 Draft, 2008 Season, Amobi Okoye is 20, Corky Johnson, DeMeco Ryans, Demarcus Faggins sucks, Huh?, Jason Babin, Morlon Greenwood, Posts that list too many players, Pulp Fiction, Rendhel and Sid, Teams that aren't the Texans

It is not much of an exaggeration to say that I have seen Pulp Fiction at least 500 times. My freshman-year roommate had a copy (VHS, baby!) stolen from Blockbuster, which we watched almost daily for that entire year, and I’ve continued to watch it more frequently than any other movie over the past decade. I am reasonably sure this says something about me, but I’m not sure what it is.1

Anyway…I mention this as background because, by this point, you’d think nothing could surprise me in that film. You’d be wrong.

So, here’s the deal. When the guy who looks somewhat like Jerry Seinfeld comes out of the bathroom and shoots at Vince and Jules, why in the hell did he have that gun in the bathroom with him in the first place?

Hear me out–clearly, Brett and “Flock of Seagulls” were not expecting Marsellus’ guys to show up at that instant, as they were enjoying Big Kahuna Burgers2 and just otherwise chilling. Seagulls was lying on the couch and, one assumes, did not have a gun within easy reach. Brett, likewise, was seemingly unarmed. The look of terror on both of their faces suggests that, had they been expecting a visit from Jules and Vince, they would certainly have been armed and ready to shoot for their lives. I mean, Brett seems to know from the moment Marvin opens the door that he is probably going to die. If you had ripped off a crime kingpin and were expecting hitmen to show up and kill you, would you be more likely to sit and eat burgers or arm yourself and prepare to shoot back?

Besides, on top of the surprise factor, you have the size of the gun. It was, as Vincent pointed out, “a goddamned hand cannon.” Such a gun is not the type that someone would have cavalierly tucked in his waistband, nor was he wearing a holster. So basically, logic dictates that he either picked up the gun and carried into the bathroom or the gun was already in the bathroom. Neither of these situations really makes sense to me. On the one hand, if Brett and Seagulls were not expecting Vince and Jules to arrive, there’s no reason to think Guy in Bathroom would have suspected it enough to carry a large handgun into the crapper. Likewise, I can see no reason why that gun would already be in the bathroom considering the people out in the living room did not have guns within easy reach.

By now, you are probably thinking “what the hell does this have to do with football?” Simple: I had been blindly accepting the situation as it was presented to me, when I should have been considering the context. Because, once you consider the context, some things that seem to make sense really don’t.3

Which brings me (finally) to the draft.

Over the past days and weeks, many people have come to grips with the idea that the Texans are probably taking a CB with the 18th pick in the draft. On the surface, where you have an injured Dunta Robinson; a horrid Petey Faggins; a possibly-horrid Jacques Reeves; and are relying on a second-year corner and a veteran sex machine safety, it would seem logically sound to take a corner and hope to improve your atrocious secondary. It would seem that way until you really consider the context.

Right now, you can easily claim that our holes on defense are NT, DE2, CB2, SLB, and (possibly) SS. Of those holes, CB2 is the one where we have already spent the most cap space this offseason, albeit on a guy who might not be able to cover me for 4 seconds. Does it make sense to use your draft pick on a guy who play the same position as the guy you just overpaid for?

But that’s not even the biggest issue.

The fact is, a great defensive line can make a suspect secondary look average to good for multiple games in a season. A fantastic secondary can make an average D-line look good a couple times per game. Partly, this is because of the nature of the rules that allow WRs to play virtually untouched. But it is also due in no small part to the logistics of what the positions are asked to do. Your defensive line exists to get to the QB (or RB), correct? Well, they know where the QB is going to be once the ball is snapped. Defensive backs, on the other hand, are asked to cover someone with no clue as to where he is going or what path he will take to get there. This means that even the best CBs are going to get beat on a long enough timeline. SO–and I know you see where I am going with this–you can improve your secondary just as much by drastically shortening the length of time you ask them to cover as by upgrading your cornerbacks.

Hell, this year’s Super Bowl Champion New York Giants are an embodiment of this principle. Their monster defensive line was able to consistently get pressure on opposing QBs. Because of this, the Giants were able to survive with subpar linebackers (Pierce is a good player, but his main strength is in leadership and getting the D set correctly; Mitchell is a smart player and a sure tackler but is nothing special; and Torbor is notably below average, but tough) and an average defensive backfield. Corey Webster looks like he turned it around, but he still isn’t very good yet. Aaron Ross looked very good for a rookie, but Gibril Wilson is at best good (in terms of skills he’s probably comparable to a healthy Will Demps, maybe very slightly better) and James Butler more or less stinks.

Yet, despite having a back seven that was basically average, the Giants defense looked absolutely dominant at times–including against the Patriots–because they were able to get after opposing QBs on a regular basis. This is not a novel concept, really. And, given the choice, I would almost always rather go into a season with three great defensive lineman than with 2 great defensive linemen and a great DB. And, hell, with Ryans and Greenwood behind a line similar to the Giants, even Petey Faggins would seem decent at cornerback.

*Pauses to consider the implications of that last sentence. Shudders.*

WHICH (finally) brings me to my bigger point. Namely that, if we are drafting defense in the first round or third round, we should be looking for a defensive tackle or a speedy defensive end or–shockingly–both. I mean, clearly someone in Texans management thought that Reeves could play or else they wouldn’t have signed him. You want to make that signing make sense? Then put together a front four that can limit how long he has to cover. The kid has fantastic speed, but his instincts and coverage skills are not all that amazing. Ask him to cover for 2.5 seconds instead of 4.5 and his speed/quickness should be able to overcome his technique/skills. Unless, that is, someone thought it prudent to give $8MM guaranteed for a nickel corner. Which I choose to believe no one in our front office is stupid enough to do.

[Author's note: I realize that some of this--ok, fine, much of this--is a rehashing of the philosophy I've been espousing since the end of the season. I was pushing for a NT at that time and, for the most part, my position hasn't changed. I have only amended it to say that I would be nearly as happy with a solid DE and that the only CB I would be willing to change my opinion for would be the mutant Rodgers-Cromartie.]

Who, then, should we be looking at? I’m glad you asked. Two names that immediately jump out to me are Brian Johnston and Kentwan Balmer.

Last one first, let’s take a look at Balmer, since most of you have probably heard of him. A 6-5, 308 DT out of UNC, Balmer posted 59 tackles (33 solos), including 3.5 sacks, 9.5 TFL, and four quarterback pressures. Balmer was solid against the run in general, allowing 1.69 yards/carry on his 55 running stops. The one knock I would have against him is that he is about 15 lbs lighter (minimum) than I would like out of my NT, but that is countered by the fact that he is strong (33 reps) and explosive (29 in. vertical jump). Even better for our purposes, Balmer is currently projected to go in the late first/early second, meaning he should be available at 18. Speaking of that 18th pick, I think even if most teams have Balmer slotted at 25-30, we should be willing to reach a little if we find a guy we really want because of the lack of a second rounder.

The other guy I mentioned, Brian Johnston, might be unfamiliar to many of you. That’s what happens when you go to Gardner-Webb and don’t get a combine invite. Of course, after reading about his tryout in front of some NFL scouts, maybe he should have been invited.

Measuring in at 6-foot-5, 274 pounds, Johnston ran his first 40-yard dash in 4.66 seconds. Johnston’s 40-yard dash time would have been the fourth best at the NFL combine for defensive ends, and the best for any lineman weighing more than 260 pounds.

Johnston’s most impressive stat from the 40-yard dash came with a very strong 1.51-second time through the first 10 yards, an important time with regards to a players quickness. By comparison, Johnston’s 10-yard split was the same as Arkansas’ running back Darren McFadden turned in at the Combine earlier this year.

The most impressive result overall, however, may have been Johnston’s time in the 20-yard shuttle. He turned in a 4.18-second time, which is better than any lineman at the NFL’s Scouting Combine. In fact, the 4.18-second time was faster than any running back at the event - with Illinois’ Rashard Mendenhall the only back to match that time.

So, yeah…I’d say he fits the definition of a speed-rushing DE. Now, I know some of you are likely saying “ACK! Workout warrior from a small school! Babin! BABIN!!!” That’s fair. But let’s not forget that Babin was a college 4-3 DE drafted to play OLB in an NFL 3-4. Going forward was never a problem for him; it was sideline to sideline and dropping into TE coverage that killed him. In Johnston’s case, you would be drafting a college 4-3 DE speed-rusher to play NFL 4-3 DE speed-rusher. And, because Mario and Okoye occupy the extra blockers, he’d be going one-on-one with o-linemen most of the time. That’s always nice when you are lightning-fast.

ANYWAY, I am just spitballing here. If the word around the campfire is to be believed, we will take someone like Aqib Talib at 18 and then a RB in the third. And I’ll deal with it, even if I don’t think it is the right approach. And, hell, maybe I get kinda lucky and we take Talib (or whomever) in the first but still snag Johnston in the third. Regardless, until Draft Day, I am just going to keep doing my best to shepherd the weak through the valley of darkness.4

1 That’s not entirely true. I think it says that I liked the movie when it was (a) popular, (b) cliched, (c) ironic, and (d) suggestive that I am getting old.

2 That IS a tasty burger!

3 On the flip-side, some things that seem utterly inexplicable–say, the selection of Mario Williams over Reggie Bush–make perfect sense once you consider the context. While some things–say, the popularity of Mambo No. 5–remain inexplicable regardless of how much you ponder them.

4 And to not shoot Marvin in the face.

BFD dies a little…

Feb 24, 2008 2008 Combine, 2008 Draft, 2008 Season, Dancing With the 'Tards

Darren McFadden unofficially ran a 4.33 in his second go at the 40.

His first run, you ask? 4.27.

The Falcons are now rumored to want to trade up to grab him, but my hope that he would slide because of character issues just died a spectacular, flaming death. BTW, Felix Jones ran a 4.47. How’s that for a backfield?

Hopefully, I will have a post up about RBs tonight. No guarantee as I still have a ton of “other” to take care of this evening.

Source: rotoworld.com. Also, this dude is putting some cool stuff on his blog: http://draftheadquarters.com/. It’s like real coverage by the Chron without the self-fluffing!