Bob McNair breaks it down, gangsta-style*

*Or, um, “rich old man”-style. Whatever.

Texans owner Bob McNair did a two part interview with Texans TV early last week. It was, as you would expect, fairly general stuff–yes, we’ve turned a corner as a team; yes, it was hard to watch all the injuries last year; yes, it was important to re-sign the Special Teams Ninja; etc.

There was, however, one answer that stuck out.

Brooke Bentley: This year’s draft will be a little different for you because the Texans don’t have a top-10 pick. They will be selecting a player with the 18th selection. What excites you about this year’s draft and which direction do you see the team going with the first-round draft pick?

Bob McNair: Fortunately, there is depth in several positions and depth in several positions where we could use some more help. We’ve had problems with left tackle in the offensive line from day one, as you will recall. We thought we solved that when we picked Tony Boselli. Then, we drafted another young player behind Tony and he didn’t work out and Tony never played one down for us because of his injuries. And the last year with (Charles) Spencer, we thought, “Now, we’ve got the guy in there,” and then I think it was in the second game (of 2006) that he got injured and then he was down. So we have had a real difficult time filling that position. Ephraim (Salaam) did a good job for us last year and he’s going to be back with us, but we need a young player in there that’s going to be with us for a long time.

Hopefully, we’ll find that. If we don’t, there’s some good defensive backs and one of those should be available at the 18th pick. And who knows? Maybe there’s an outstanding running back. If there is somebody special, we would certainly consider that. But I think that Rick and his people have done a good enough job in free agency that we are not really vulnerable or desperate at any one position, so we can pick the best athlete that is available when our turn comes. And if we have the opportunity to trade down and still get the player we want and get an additional pick later, then certainly we always like to do that.

Hmm…I like the reference to possibly trading back. I dislike the idea of taking any DB at 18 whose name doesn’t rhyme with Smodgers-Thromartie. And I am genuinely concerned by the total lack of mention of DE or DT. (Though I suppose it’s possible that Bob is just playing some Texas Hold’Em and not tipping his hand here. Maybe he is just reciting what some of the “experts” are saying while fully planning on going a different direction. Or maybe I am overthinking this.)

Texans fans: The Giants luv you! {hugs}

This post is about four hours late this morning. Doesn’t my employer know that work time is blog time? DAMMIT! Anyway, work sucks today, so sorry for the delay.

The big news of the morning is, of course, that the New York Giants loves them some Mr. Mittens. The mere fact that the Giants want to keep Mittens in the news is proof that *the God of your choice* loves us and wants us to drink more rubbing alcohol beer! The danger is that Mittens actually beats the monstrous Jared Lorenzen (that’s Shake on the left), and Jared simply pops Carr into his mouth like the worm from a bad bottle of Mezcal. Obviously, our nation would grieve for days after the loss of someone of Mittens’ stature, but I don’t think Mittens has much of a chance of winning the backup job. (original link courtesy from profootballtalk.com)

If that isn’t enough to make you swoon, then how about signing Pacman Jones (again from PFT):

If Titans CB Pacman Jones is reinstated and traded to another team, the new team would be on the hook for base salaries of $1.29 million in 2008, $1.74 million in 2009, and $2.19 million in 2010.

Yeah, I am willing to take a chance with salaries like that, especially in lieu of our signing Petey Faggins, Jr. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that parts of the Texans nation are developing a nice little man-crush on Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (ADF, Matt, me, I’m looking at you). Sadly, I don’t think he’ll be there for #18, and it looks like the Ravens are zeroing in on Leodis McKelvin with their pick.

I’m neither inherently a risk-taker, nor am I risk averse. I am, however, optimistic that things would work for Pacman in Houston, but I’ve got nothing to base that on other than my formidable gut.

Finally, and a little off-topic, but it looks like the Stros’ Kaz Matsui has a little pain in the ass. This is ironic, of course, because watching him play this year will cause pain to all our asses.

Crap. Back to work. “Clean your windshield, sir?”

On the horns of an enema - Scraps at CB

Now that Nnamdi Asomugha has broken Matt’s heart like so many Anna-Megans, let’s take a look at some of the least sucky options at cornerback still available.

Marcus Trufant - Franchise tag. Not a surprising move by the Seasquawks, but it means he’s out.

DeAngelo Hall - Yeah, we have consensus that he’s an asswipe. I’ve always been of the opinion, however, that as long as you play for the team, being an asswipe isn’t all bad (see Sanders, Deion). But I’m not sure if Hall qualifies for that level. And considering the baggage he carries, and that the Falcons allegedly want a first round pick for him, fuck him. Of course, there’s the chance that we can dick the Falcons on a deal again, which definitely gives me warm fuzzies.

Asante Samuel - We’ve previously brushed Samuel aside for contract size reasons, but considering what Trufant and Nnamdi are getting, is that the market for a CB? Perhaps it’s now something to consider?

Lito Sheppard - A dirty, unsubstantiated rumor has the Eagles interested in Samuel because they think Sheppard has a glass jaw. If the Eagles do sign Samuel, I think Sheppard is gone.

Jacques Reeves - Ugh, a cowpoke, and one who was picked on during the year. But, sheesh, this is the territory we are starting to hit. Reeves is an unrestricted free agent.

Randall Gay - When watching the Patriots this year, it seemed to me that the Pats had two weak links in their secondary: King Asshole Rodney Harrison, and Randall Gay. Yet, Gay might be the most likely option as of today. Still, Gay can be flammable at times, and I kinda see him as a more expensive Petey. There, I said it..

Brian Kelly - Dude, you lost your job to P-Buch? Seriously? What, did you fall asleep on the field?

Drayton Florence - You can add him to the flammable list.

Chris Carr - Has seen most of his action on special teams, including as a punt returner.

Have I missed anybody?

Look at this list. It’s pretty pathetic at this point. There’s a chance somebody like Ricky Manning becomes available after the first round of salary cuts, and I wouldn’t mind him in the least. But, still, the lack of feasible CBs, along with Dunta’s injury, means that we have to address CB a lot sooner than later. Even though I am against huge mega-contracts, I think Samuel may be the only decent option out there, even if we have to overpay.

The way I look at it: we either overpay for mediocrity, or we overpay for above average production.

Or, of course, we take a CB in the draft with our 1st or 3rd round pick.

PS: Look, Matt, I bolded names all by myself. I’m a big boy today!

PPS: If you can name the show from where I got the reference in the title, give yourself a cookie.

History is the distillation of rumour.

I’m guessing we all sort of assumed as much but, in case you had any doubts, Kubes said yesterday that Sage Rosenfels will start Sunday’s finale.

I’m going to start Sage. Sage will be our starter going into the game. It will be a game-time decision on Matt on whether he’ll be our backup or the third. Over the course of the next couple of days, we’ll see.

Possible Translation: Sage’s trade value took a hit last week, so I am going to run him back out there, hope they play their second-team defense, and give him a chance to bring that stock back up. Also, I’d be a fool if I let Matt Schaub back out there before his shoulder was 100%. Since I already managed to get Andre Johnson hurt this year, I think I’ll pass on taking another stupid risk. Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to go remind everyone that Mario was the correct pick.

In all seriousness, though (or at least as much seriousness I can muster), this is the right move. As much as we would like to win this game, it would almost be a pyhrric victory if Matt did further damage to the separated shoulder (or suffered another concussion). Besides, right now, at this exact moment in time, I can’t honestly look any of you in the virtual eye and say that starting Matt gives us any sort of increased likelihood of winning.

Which is NOT to say that I don’t still think Schaub is the guy, both in terms of short-term competition with Sage and long-term health of the franchise.

Unless I am missing something, we have four answers to the question of “What about Sage?” 1. We can hold on to him, content in knowing that we have “The Best Backup in Football” should Schuab get injured. 2. We can take advantage of his reputation as “The Best Backup in Football” and use it to net ourselves players or draft picks to fill more pressing needs. 3. We can make him the starter based on what he’s done this year as compared to Schaub. 4. We can hold on to him and let him and Schaub battle it out next summer because we believe both of them are capable of being an NFL starting QB.

Numbers 1 and 2 both have their merits, but we’ll deal with them in a moment. To my way of thinking, #3 is asinine unless you really, REALLY believe that we messed up by trading for Schaub, which is a pretty hard position to defend and is generally shared only by the same sort of people that believe Tony Hollings was a smart pick. Number 4, though…that’s what this discussion is really about, isn’t it? Because there are intelligent people who honestly believe that Sage is capable of being the starter and that whichever one of the two QBs who wins the battle can be the future of this organization. To those people, I have to say that I respectfully disagree. (To the people in the #3 camp, I disagree, but there is no respect involved.)

I’ve said it before, but there absolutely had to be a reason that Matt Schaub was the most sought backup QB in the league before last offseason. True, he did not have much of a body of work to support that lofty position, but NFL heads had to have seen something they liked in him to drive his pricetag up as high as it went. And in his first two games of this season, when the team was reasonably healthy and there was a semblance of a running game, many fans (myself included) were thrilled about how great the Matt Schaub era was going to be. So, yeah, there have been flashes of starting-caliber ability from Matt. Additionally, red zone INTs notwithstanding, there is no substantial body of evidence that suggests Matt isn’t capable of being a starting QB.

On the other hand, for all Sage has done this year, can we really overlook the fact that in four years of mini-camps and training camps (not to mention the 13 games had played in) he couldn’t beat out such Dolphin luminaries as Jay Fielder, Ray Lucas, Brian Griese, AJ Feeley, and Gus Frerotte? Don’t you think that, if Rosenfels had shown even a glimmer of the ability to be a starter, that he would not have been the one constant on the roster as the Dolphins brought in all those other guys in an effort to find a real QB?

Is this dispositive? Of course not. There is nothing that says future performance has to be directly correlated with past performance. Besides, in theory, it is perfectly believable that a guy languished in an organization so bereft of common sense that he never really had a chance to prove his ability. But, while that sounds nice in theory, can someone point me to one guy–just one–who did next to nothing for four years on a winning team (the Dolphins were over .500 three of Sage’s four years) only to be reborn as a bona fide starter somewhere else? I honestly can’t think of one. The closest I can come up with off the top of my head is Rich Gannon in his four years with Kansas City, but that’s a crappy comparison because (a) Rich had already been in the league seven years when he got to KC, (b) he played much more during his time in KC than Sage did in Miami, and (c) anyone with any sense was screaming for Rich to remain the starter over Elvis Grbac. Still, I suppose Gannon is an example of a very late bloomer, so at least that part holds.

On the contrary, you can think of a number of guys who were thought to be better than they’d shown with their previous teams, only to also suck upon arrival at their new NFL addresses, even if they initially showed promise with the second team. David Carr had some Carolina fans calling for Jake’s head based on some training camp games. How’d that work out? People actually believed that Joey Harrington could be the guy in Atlanta based on…umm…I actually don’t know. Brian Griese has gotten multiple shots like this, always based on a couple good games he had in the preseason or in the previous season. So, do you really have enough faith that Sage is the exception to this pattern that you would let the future of the Texans ride on that belief?

Look, I’m not trying to suggest that Sage hasn’t had a good year, or that his year wasn’t objectively better than Schaub’s. Clearly, it was. I would suggest, however, that we are comparing apples and oranges when we put them side-by-side: one is a guy who came in with a ton of promise, lived up to it for his first two games, then saw his #1 weapon–one of the best three or four WRs in football–go down and his running game go kaput; the other guy is one that has a five year history of not being the best QB on a roster full of crappy QBs, led a nice near-comeback that caused people to ignore his turnovers in that game, then was at the helm when Andre Johnson was back at full strength and the defense began playing much better. Which, I guess, is my long-winded way of saying that Sage’s success this year can just as easily be chalked up to right place, right time as to anything inherent in him. There’s nothing wrong with that–a lot of guys get their initial breaks that way (Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, etc.). But how many of those guys previously lost playing time to Ray effin’ Lucas?

Trying again to make a long story short–if you had to bet your life on one of these two QBs being successful in Houston five years from now, would you take the guy who came into town with enough promise to warrant two second-round picks or the guy who came into town after four years of being the backup to guys who should never have been anything more than backups?

“But,” some of you are probably saying, “why not just keep both of them so we have a solid backup?” Thank you for segueing me into Numbers 1 and 2 from the earlier list. In a perfect world, where every Mario Williams is backed up by an Earl Cochran and every free agent WR can produce like Andre Davis, it would be a fantastic luxury to have a backup of Sage’s quality. Hell, it would be ideal. But, as we all know, this Texans roster is far from complete. Our highest paid player, Anthony Weaver, has been invisible or worse for much of the season. We don’t have a real first- and second-down running back. Strongside linebacker, nose tackle, center, right and left guard, free safety, all continue to be question marks as well. To make matters worse–at least when it comes to filling some of those holes–we don’t have a second-round draft pick this year.

Even if you don’t buy the idea that Sage’s past gives us any sort window into his abilities, the mere fact that we have so many spaces to fill should suggest that, if someone is willing to give us any kind of a package that includes the words “third-round draft pick” we owe it to ourselves to make that deal. We would be letting someone else take the chance that Sage 2008 will be more like Sage 2004 than 2007 and we would be addressing actual, pressing needs.

I have to believe that Smithiak realize this need to get something for Sage and that this is what is driving all the talk about Sage being a quality NFL QB. I mean, otherwise, by telling the fans over and over that Rosenfels is a starting-quality QB and will “push” Matt to be better, they would be creating an instant QB controversy as soon as Matt had one down game. I might have bought that the previous regime was that short-sighted, but I tend to think this group understands these things and would not set Matt or Sage up to fail. Besides, given that Kubiak is by all accounts a huge Matt Schaub fan and has been since the kid arrived, any scenario that doesn’t revolve around getting the best team possible on the field around Matt Schaub would be incongruous with what they’ve been telling us.

Wow…I really didn’t mean to write that much when I started this post. Sorry about that. And I realize that a lot of this is rehashing some old points, so I don’t know that much of it is comment-inducing. Such is life.

****************************************************************************

In other, non-related bits:

  • You know how I use the Texans’ logo at the top-left of every post? Well, after seeing that the NFL “asked” HPF to remove team logos and whatnot (and factoring in that there have to be at least a few people out there who are unhappy with their respective portrayals herein), I’m beginning to think that I should get rid of that. Now, this place is pretty graphic-free as it is, so I kind of like having a little something up there for visual interest and to make it easier to see where new posts start if I am scrolling down the page. I think it’s pretty well-known that I am awful at photoshops (right, BFD?), so if any of you can come up with some sort of graphic roughly that same size that “embodies” this blog in some way, I’ll, like, give you my undying love. And a free DGDB&D t-shirt, if you want one. To the extent this is a contest, it ends as soon as I pick one.
  • Two different people have asked me if I am rooting for the Titans this weekend since I hate Peyton Manning with such a passion.  No, I am not.  I am rooting for Albert Haynesworth to kill Manning and then get kicked out of the game for violating Peyton’s corpse, but I want Sorgi to lead the Colts to the win.  My reasoning?  Seeing Vince choke away a playoff birth would make Mario’s breakout season extra sweet.  (Also, if we can’t make the playoffs, I don’t want those turds to make it, either.  I am selfish like that.)
  • Douchebag Tom the douchey banned commenter is still a douchebag. Which is not really news, but still seemed worth mentioning.

Credit where credit is due?

On the list of “Things That Make Me Happy,” getting an email from a reader with the subject line “CBS gives Casserly oral” would be way up there near the top.

Reader Grayson sent along this link along with the observation that it “looks like someone at CBS has Casserly’s wang in their mouth.”

Casserly defied conventional thinking in taking Williams, and that led to an uproar around the league, and especially in Houston. He was vilified on the talk-show circuit.

People love offensive highlights, which Bush and Young provided in college. They don’t get excited for defense. “We took a lot of abuse for that pick,” Casserly said.

That might change now. And here’s why: The Texans indeed picked the right player

I like the gist of the article–the Mario Williams was the right guy–but I don’t know how much credit we should give ol’ Chuck. I mean, the general consensus is that Kubiak pushed for Mario as much or more than Casserly, right?

I know, I know… if people were going to bag on Casserly when Mario seemed to be playing poorly, then he should get credit for the success Mario seems to enjoy now. Fair enough–if you believe he was the impetus behind the pick. If not, then both the derision and the praise are/were misplaced. The majority of the articles I read after the fact–at least those written by people who would be “in the know”–suggested that this pick was made primarily because Gary Kubiak was sold on Mario (and possibly though Domanick Williams (nee Davis) would be back).

UPDATE: Tman makes a good point in the comments–that one great game does not equal redemption. I don’t argue with that. My bigger point here is just that, whether Mario succeeds or fails, the credit/blame should not go to Casserly for this pick. He’s relegated to his other good works (Andre Johnson, Dunta Robinson) and his other flops (see, generally, 2002-2005).

With apologies to Willie Nelson

The City of New Orleans
by: Reggie Bush

Drafted by the city of New Orleans,
Overrated, hell; you shoulda took me number one
At USC, you know I won the Heisman,
I averaged way more than three-point-five per run.
Now I’m in the NFC
Where nearly everyone’s as fast as me
And they all hit harder than those pussies out at Cal.
Shelden Brown nearly knocked me out,
I can’t believe Drew hung me out
I made fun of his mole, but I thought we were still pals.

CHORUS:
Good morning NFL, how are you?
Don’t you know me I’m the chosen one,
I’m the running back they call The Next Gale Sayers,
But, I’ll be returning punts in Cleveland by the time I’m done.

Getting throttled by Indy in the season opener.
I’d look better if no one was keeping score.
Thank god we still have Deuce McAllister,
I had 12 carries and sure didn’t want no more.
And the writers for the papers
And the hacks at ESPN
Continue to talk out of their ass.
Thank you Charlie Casserly,
For taking Mario and not me
You got fired, but I get a free pass.

Hello, NFL, how are you?
Don’t you know me I’m the chosen one,
I’m the running back they call The Next Gale Sayers,
But, I’ll be returning punts in Cleveland by the time I’m done.

Nighttime in The City of New Orleans,
Kim Kardashian coming over soon.
My USC education was awesome
Matt Leinart showed me how to snag hot poon.
And all the fans down in Houston
Are starting to change their song
About whether they wish I was in Liberty White.
Some are still hung up on Vince,
But my name no longer makes them wince,
They whisper “Hey, maybe we actually drafted right.”

Good night, NFL , how are you?
Don’t you know me I’m the chosen one,
I’m the running back they call The Next Gale Sayers,
But, I’ll be returning punts in Cleveland by the time I’m done.

Matt Millen might have been an upgrade

There are three things that I am obsessive-compulsive about–making my lawn perfect, bar-b-queing, and writing about football. I point this out for two reasons: first, I have been doing the second of those things today, which is why I haven’t posted, and, second, it appears that former GM Charlie Casserly was in no way obsessive about anything related to his position.

You see, to be truly OCD about anything, you have to be able to devote a singular intensity to it, so that nothing else matters while you are working. I can stand and stare at the thermometer on a smoker for 8 to 10 hours at a stretch–I’ve done that today, in fact, starting at 6:30AM. Casserly, apparently, couldn’t make it through a single contract negotiation without losing focus (and possibly taking total leave of his senses) and he damn sure could not devote the focus needed to build a cap-friendly, successful team.

Why do I say that?

See, e.g., here. (Hat tip to the fellas Tim at BRB.) As of right now, the Texans have approximately $30.5 MM locked up in dead money (i.e. money paid to players who will not suit up for the Texans this season).

Such luminaries as Gary Walker, Zach Weigert, and Seth Payne grace that list. Plus, you have the always-fun situation of paying Robaire Smith to play for Tennessee and Cleveland. Great.

Now, there are some glimmers of a silver lining to this situation. For one, at least according to the author of the article, it was precipitated by the regime change from Shitard-Fucktard1 to Smith-Kubiak and from the switch from a 3-4 to a 4-3 defense. If last season is any barometer2, both of those changes were for the better. Certainly the coaching change was an improvement–Capers reliably demonstrated that he couldn’t manage a whore house on a troop train. Moreover, the defensive shift certainly allowed DeJesus Ryans the freedom to roam without worrying about too many 300-lb blockers. Both of those things have to be worth a certain amount of money down the road.

Second, the salary cap this season is $109 MM. On top of that, we currently have $3.35 MM in “forward cap adjustment”3, meaning we have cap space of around $7.2 MM dollars to spend between now and kickoff 2007. Translation: We aren’t exactly scraping and begging for cap room just to field a team. Sure, we’d like to have more room–every team would–but we are sitting more or less fine at the moment. Besides, the author of the above article draws the line for “problematic” dead money at $10 MM, which is a threshold that 2006 playoff participant New Orleans crosses (as do a number of other teams with first- or second-year head coaches).

Finally, and most fantastically orgasmic, next year’s projection only has us on the hook for about $2.93 MM, with cap space of over $37 MM. Obviously, that is an estimate, but it is a FAR better number to look at than many teams have right now.

Now, please, PLEASE, don’t get me wrong. None of this absolves Casserly of the shit-poor job he did over the past few years. Signing someone like Gary Walker to a contract that would have you on the hook for $5.5 MM even if he played this season is asinine. At best. And paying Robaire Smith to play for a friggin’ division rival last season smacks of incompetence of the highest order. Casserly was to Scott Pioli as Corky Thatcher was to Stephen Hawking.

Still, you almost have to consider us lucky that we can be in year two of a new regime and still have over $7 MM in cap space to spare, especially with the core that we have. Right now (other than 75% of a secondary) what do we really need? A veteran WR2? Sure. But that’s enough money to sign any one that might come available to a one year sheet. Honestly, that’s even more than enough to sign, say, Keenan McCardell and Tank Johnson.

At this point, I don’t know how much more we could ask for.

(You know, other than a real CB2.)

1 Also known as “Casserly-Capers.”
2 Three straight sentences with a meteorological bent. I’ll stop. Maybe.
3 Quickly, if a team defined an incentive as “likely to be earned” (based upon language in the CBA) in a player’s contract in 2006, that incentive would have counted against last year’s cap. However, if the player never actually achieved the required goal to trigger the incentive, then a portion of that incentive counts as a credit against this year’s cap. It’s not a great reflection on your prior season is people fail to reach “likely” incentives, but it sure helps this year. C’est la vie.