DGDB&D: a Texans blog.

Gary Kubiak discusses defense

Nov 19, 2008 2008 Season, Bad Idea Jeans, Curious Coaching, Fire Richard Smith, Gary Kubiak might be high, God hates ugly, Inanity, This is a rather lame and pointless post, Unnecessarily long posts

From HT.com, some Monday quotes.  The press conference (as expected) featured a lot of questions about the defense or lack thereof.

(on if there is anything he can do on defense that he hasn’t done) “Yeah, I think obviously we’ve got to find some more ways to be effective.

You could start by firing the person who is making you ineffective.  No?  OK.  Fine.

We have played a lot of guys.

Many of whom–and I’m looking at you, Jacques–do not deserve to be getting anywhere near the number of snaps they are getting.  That goes back to that dude who you refuse to fire, doesn’t it?  No?  Damn.

Read the rest of this entry »

sigh

Nov 17, 2008 2008 Season, Curious Coaching, Ensagenation, Faggination, Fuck Jared Allen, Gary Kubiak might be high, Rosencopter, Rosie Rosenfels

The English language is severely limited, at least when it comes to adjectives to desribe a situation or mood.  For example, last year, we noted that there wasn’t really a word to describe a situation where you are pissed with how long something took, but incredibly pleased with the end result, so we coined one: fagginated.

Well, along those same lines, I can’t really think of a word that describes how you feel after something bad happens when you knew all along it was going to happen.  I mean, “deflated” doesn’t really get there, because your hopes were never really up if you were being realistic.  “Pissed” doesn’t cover it because it’s hard to get too angry about something you saw coming; that’d be like getting angry that Saw VI was being released.  So I am going to go with “ensaged.”  For example, you totally screw up a million dollar project at work and subsequently get fired, your firing could leave you ensaged–you saw it coming, but it still pretty much sucks.

In that vein, I was totally ensaged with the ending of yesterday’s game.  When we got the ball back with roughly two minutes, bigwood25, who was watching the game at my house, commented that we still had plenty of time and would probably win this to get even for the previous loss to Indy.  Already resigned to my fate, I remarked, simply, “no, Sage will definitely find a way to mess this up.  I have no doubt.”

Interception, ballgame.  Ensagination ensues.

What does it even mean when you reach this point with your team, when you are absolutely positive that they will find a way not to win a game that most teams (other than the Rams and Chiefs) would have had better-than-average odds to win?  Two minutes left with a top five offense–we should have had at least 50-50 odds to get there and get it done.  But I bet you would be hard-pressed to find a Texans fan who had even the slightest hope that we would actually pull it out.  Because we never, ever, EVER do.

So, yeah.  I was ensaged.  Damn it.  But I went from ensaged to full-on irritated when I read the following postgame quotes:

Kubiak: (on the interception at the end of the game) “The thing that you are trying to do right there is just get yourself in position to throw a Hail Mary toward the end zone. That’s all you are trying to do.”

No.  NO.  That is NOT “all you are trying to do.”  You had the ball in their territory with about a minute to play.  You had an offense that had moved the ball well all day.  They had yet to consistently stop your passing game OR your running game.  Wht you are trying to do there is march down the field, get out of bounds around the 15- or 20-yard line with 25 seconds to play, and take two to three shots at the endzone on real pass patterns.  Saying you were trying to get in Hail Mary position in that situation is either revisionist history or, more likely, a sign that you had ZERO faith in your QB to actually manufacture a crunch-time drive.  Neither answer really pleases me, but the latter is especially irritating since you continue to insist that the team doesn’t miss a beat when we switch from Matt to Sage.  Would Schaub have made that drive?  I honestly don’t know.  But I do know I would have felt roughly 13183736 times more confident in our chances.  Then again, if you are just telling the team to get into chuck-and-pray position, maybe ANY confidence on my part would have been severely misguided.

Sage: (on the interception in the final drive) “We had four verticals on and they rolled a cover that sort of surprised me and I thought I had a chance with Kevin (Walter) on the sideline. I saw Owen Daniels flash. I think Owen Daniels was open enough, but I just made a bad threw [sic]. I threw it behind him and probably should have just checked the ball down or something else. I really just made a bad throw. You know, we had a chance. To come into this place, it’s a hard place to win and we had a chance. They made the plays today and we didn’t.”

First..wait…”sort of surprised” you?  Really?  A six-man zone when they are trying to keep everything in front of them and not give you the sidelines “surprised” you?  Are you also surprised when the sun comes up?  That coverage was not the least bit surprising; they’d used something similar for most of the drive.  Just because the corner stuck with Owen a little longer than he had before should not be surprising, especially for an NFL QB.

Second, “probably?”  So you’re saying there’s a chance you should have still gone ahead and made that same throw?  Even knowing what you know now?  Good god.

Finally, not “we.”  You.  Well, you and the defense, but for purposes of this conversation, YOU failed to make the play.  You threw an awful ball that everyone watching knew you would throw.  That not on anyone but the guy tossing the pigskin.\

In the end, though, whether ensagenated or irritated, the end result is the same—another loss, another lost season, and another week of cursing the names of Sage Rosenfels and Jared Allen.  Great.  Because I don’t already have enough of that in my life, right?

Y-y-your brain has the shell on it…Richard.

Nov 14, 2008 Curious Coaching, Fire Richard Smith, I love defensive football

I had a little free time tonight, so I figured I would re-watch the first quarter of the Ravens game and look at every defensive snap, just to see what stuck out.  Here we go:

First Baltimore Drive:

1&10 at Own 32:  Cover-1 against a 3-WR set for B’more with Eugene Wilson deep.  Nick Ferguson has the slot receiver.  Mario lined up at RDE.  Jacques Reeves is isolated to the offense’s left in man coverage.  Greenwood tries to jump underneath Clayton’s route, presumably to help Reeves, but Todd Heap goes right to where Greenwood was and makes a quick catch.

2&7 at Own 35+: Cover-1 again, presumably with Wilson deep (TV didn’t show, so he must be very deep).  Baltimore has two WR, TE, FB, RB.  Mario at RDE.  Travis Johnson gets BLOWN off the line and Ray Rice cuts the handoff right back into the huge hole where Travis was.  Anthony Weaver gets blocked out of the play, DeMeco misses a tackle because he overpersued and Rice is gang-tackled with DelJuan Robinson getting there first because Robinson had been blocked backward about five yards.

3&3 at Own 32: Overhead camera view shows five subs coming in for Houston.  Cover-1 AGAIN.  Dunta is in press coverage on one of three WRs to the right; Bennett and Reeves are giving a ton of cushion to the outside WRs.  Third WR to the right looks uncovered, but Greenwood has him with a five yard cushion.  Mario at RDE. The camera doesn’t follow, but it looks like one of Smith’s bastardized zone coverages, with Wilson very deep, Dunta, Greenwood, and Bentley in man, and Reeves/Bennett/Ryans playing thirds in the middle zone.  None of that matters, though, because Earl Cochran at DT beside Mario blows past his blocker and sacks Flacco.  [I ask you, if Earl is strong enough to play DT and fast enough to play DE, isn't he by definition better than Anthony Weaver who is neither of those things?]  Texans force a three-and-out.

Second Baltimore Drive:

1&10 at Own 23: Cover-1 with the front seven in a 4-3 Over, Bentley right beside Mario, with Ferguson as the eighth man in the box.  Heap goes in motion, but Ferguson just backs up a little and does not follow.  Reeves is isoed again with the WR split far to the left.  Play-action and the entire linebacking corps as well as Nick Ferguson bites on it.  Bentley, who started the play two yards outside the right hashmark does not recognize the fake and turn around until he hits the left hashmark.  Heap blocks Mario, then releases into the spot where two linebackers started the play but none are currently standing.  Reeves gets blocked completely out of bounds, so Eugene Wilson makes the tackle a number of yards later with Travis Johnson giving the most effort I’ve seen out of him all year trailing the play.

1&10 at Own 42:  EXACT same alignment as the last play, right down to Ferguson as the eighth man up.  Inside run, looks like it’s aiming for the B-gap, but Zgonina gets penetration and fills the hole and DelJuan Robinson comes unblocked.  Of course what looks like it will be a three-yard loss turns into a three-yard gain as Robinson whiffs.  Weaver is watching the whole play develop but doesn’t react quickly enough.  If the linebackers are not tied up forcing McGahee to slow enough that Weaver catches up, that’s a huge play.  I’d pay for some solid tackling right about now.

2&6 at Own 46+:  Cover-1, Wilson deep, Ferguson in the box lined up just outside the RT.  B’more with two WR, two TE (one is actually Adam Terry as an eligible tackle), RB.  Reeves is in press coverage on the WR, Bennett is giving five or six yards of cushion to the slot WR.  Draw play, RB gets deep into the line before making a cut to the left.  Bentley lets himself get sucked way too far into the play instead of keeping outside contain.  Mario has two, maybe three, blockers driving him toward the middle, so Bentley is the only edge D right now.  Thankfully (and inexplciably) McGahee tries to spin back to the inside where he’s wrapped up by DeMeco.  Bentley was owned by a pulling guard on that play; McGahee should have kept going outside.  All of this for naught, Mario was offsides, which is a penalty.  Holding him, however, is not.

2&1 at Hou 49: 4-3 Under, Cover-2 (oh god).  Too much time on a crappy camera angle, so I can’t see who the deep men are.  I’m guessing Reeves (because I don’t see him in the box) and Wilson.  Why does Richard Smith bastardize even the straight-forward coverages?  Play action, I count five people flat-footed at the 45, all within eight yards of each other left to right.  This won’t end well.  The coverage looks to be quarters (or possibly thirds) underneath the Cover-2, but only Bentley and Ryans actually drop into their zone coverage.  The other three all bite on the play fake.  Mason goes to the middle of the Cover-2, and Wilson is nowhere near deep enough, but the ball is slightly underthrown and Reeves gets a hand on it. I’m guessing Wilson, too, bit on the play fake.

3&1 at Hou 49: Something just hit me, and it really should have hit me sooner than this.  We are playing a bastardized 4-6 defense right now rather than a 4-3 Under, only we’re keeping our LBs in order rather than flip-flopping the MLB and an OLB like Buddy Ryan used to (and we’re not shifting quite as far to the weakside as Buddy did).  Weird.  But what’s even weirder is WE’RE NOT BLITZING OUT OF IT, WHICH IS THE STRENGTH OF THE 4-6 FORMATION.  That’s right, kids…all of the drawbacks of a scheme and none of the benefits.  Anyway, 4-6, Mario still at RDE because we’ve apparently decided that moving him to LDE to confuse people is cheating.  Pre-snap, Reeves goes into a backpedal and the S and LBs shift toward the strongside.

Holy crap, I just saw a blitz.  Of course, since the defense had shifted back to the strongside and we blitzed from that side, the weakside was wide open and that’s exactly where they ran.  Can’t win for losin’.  Bennett AND Greenwood get a hold of McClain, but it takes them at least seven yards to drag him down.

1&10 at Hou 40:  Staying in the 4-6 look.  Mario with a weird three-yard split from the DT.  Both corners appropriately in press coverage.  Ferguson looks like he’s not sure who has Heap.  Thankfully, flag on the play.

1&15 at Hou 45: Nickel package, Cover-2 look but Ferguson sneaks up and man covers Heap. DeMeco comes on the blitz but is picked up fairly well by the RB. Camera angle was bad, so I couldn’t see if anyone retreated to fill the other half of the C-2, but I did notice Tim Bulman dropping into zone coverage about 15 yards downfield near the hashmark and Greenwood in the shorter middle zone picked up Heap when Ferguson released.  So I suppose that means we had Cover-1 with thirds underneath and man coverage on the outsides. Dunno.  Play results in incomplete pass, however.

2&15 at Hou 45:  Cover-2, but we try to disguise it by having Ferguson break deep at the last moment.  Fred sort of leaves his fifth and wanders into Greenwood’s zone, the ball is dumped to Rice who runs that direction, but it is Ryans coming all the way over to make the play.  Cochran got great penetration and nearly knocked that ball down out of Flacco’s hand.  Why isn’t he starting again?

3&13 at Hou 43: Nickel package, Ravens in shotgun, three WR, RB, TE in the backfield.  I’m gonna go ahead and guess pass.  Cover-2, Bennett jams the WR at the line, Reeves releases Figurs, Ryans/Adibi/Robinson fill the middle three-fifths underneath.  Flacco goes deep, right at the gap in the middle of our Cover-2.  TD, B’more.  Ferguson and Wilson got absolutely abused there as the slot WR streaked down the hashmark to freeze Wilson (who continues to not get deep enough on this coverage).

Third Baltimore Drive:

1&10 at Hou 20:  B’more has the ball back after the Ngata INT in the endzone.  We show Cover-2/4-3 Over underneath, perhaps to lull them into a sense of security, and then bring Ferguson up at the last second into that awful Cover-1/ non-aggressive 4-6 thing we’ve trotted out all day.  Ferguson comes on the blitz this time, but it’s a handoff designed to go the other direction.  Mt. Okam flowed down the line with the play, made an athletic move to avoid a cutblock, and makes the stop.  Travis Johnson, meanwhile, overpersues and falls down.  Holding on the Ravens.

1&20 at Hou 10:  First truly standard 4-3 we’ve shown.  Bentley again a little too aggressive trailing the play; if that was play-action, the WR coming from the backside has an easy 20 yard pickup.  Ravens’ line owns ours, McGahee picks his way for five.

2&15 at Hou 20: Cover-2 look, but they roll into Cover-1 at the snap, with both corners giving the WRs much cushion.  This backfires as the pass goes for 17 and is caught in front of Bennett along the sideline.

1&10 at Hou 32: World’s most obvious Cover-1, with Wilson backpedaling before the snap.  Bentley is line up on Figurs, which is one of the more ridiculous ideas I’ve ever heard.  Reeves is literally 9.5 yards off his WR at the snap.  Running play to the right and Todd Heap manhandles Nick Ferguson out of the way, but Okam reaches out and grabs McGahee with one arm and brings him down while being blocked by a single guard.  The tackle was made by Okam with help from Bennett, yet the announcer said it was Bentley and Greenwood.  Geez.

***************End of First Quarter******************

So, what did we learn?  Let’s see–we like to play coverage schemes that best expose our weaknesses, we’ve decided to stop moving Mario to LDE on passing downs (despite his performance this year), Frank Okam is big and strong, Kevin Bentley is over-aggressive on play-actions, and our coverage is downright awful right now.  That about cover it?

Obviously, most of this is not news.  These are all the things we’ve all been bitching about.  Though I wasn’t expressly looking for them and was focusing instead on coverage, I counted only one true blitz on a passing play and two run blitzes (though they looked like we were guessing pass and guessed wrong).  I was surprised at how bad DelJuan Robinson looked in slow-motion breakdown and I was surprised at how good Earl looked, regardless of where he was on the line.

Maybe someday I’ll get to do this for a whole game’s worth of snaps.  But I ain’t doing that in a lopsided loss for damn sure.

With Apologies to Snoop Dogg and Dr. Dre

Nov 13, 2008 Curious Coaching, Fire Richard Smith, God hates ugly, Idiot Karaoke, Inanity

Nuthin’ But A D Thang
by: Richard Smith and Jon Hoke

One, two, three and to the fo’
D-C Richard Smith and Coach Hoke are at the do’
Another stupid penalty, so back on up
And you know we’ll probably fuck shit up

[Smith]
Gimme the microphone first, so I can bust like a bubble
See me with that headset, now you know you in trouble

Ain’t nothin’ but a D thang, baaaaabay!
Two overmatched coaches looking craaaazay!
McNair is the geezer that paaaays me!
Replaceable, but please don’t try to replace me

But, uh, back to the lecture at hand
Perfection ain’t expected, so ineptitude is the plan
From DC’s perspective
And before me callin’ a blitz I’d have to change my whole perspective
You never know, it could be time for a blitz,
O primed for a blitz, and the whole D’s just dyin’ blitz
But you know I ain’t wit’ that shit, y’all
Ain’t no coverage good enough it won’t get burnt while I’m involved
Now we worse than Indy, Tennessee, and Jacksonville
Baylor fans, Houston fans know just how you feel
Well, I ain’t good enough to coach a pee wee team
Don’t you wonder why they haven’t fired me?

[Chorus]
We don’t blitz, we can’t cover, we don’t blitz, and uh
We can’t cover, we don’t blitz, we can’t cover, and uh
We don’t blitz, we can’t cover, we don’t blitz, and uh
Hoke, creep to the mic like a phantom

[Hoke]
Well they beat him and they beat him and they beat him
But I can’t do shit; Richard says we gotta keep Reeves in
Now its time for me to make my contributions known
So sit back, relax, and watch the coverage get blown
You never been on a ride like this, I bet
With a DB coach who can make his best corner regress
And just smile at the miles of cushion we give
You know, and they know, that our whole scheme is shit
To add to my deflation, the immolation
Of ol’ Petey, there he be, watching the TD
Like I do, when we in Cover-2
But this scheme is all me and Dick Smith know how to do

[Chorus]
We don’t blitz, we can’t cover, we don’t blitz, and uh
We can’t cover, we don’t blitz, we can’t cover, and uh
We don’t blitz, and we ain’t got no plans to change
So jus’ chill, wait fo’ mo’ of the same

[Smith]
Travis playin’ like ass, like he ain’t never seen a
Play-action fake; who is worse, him or Zgonina?
It’s the capital S, oh yes, the fresh M-I-T-H
And I keep playin’ the veterans, talented rookies have to wait
Showin’ no flex when it comes to halftime changes
Man, the D is shittin’ the bed, now my whole job’s in danger
Yeah, but I won’t quit
I think I’m in the mood for some Mario-in-coverage shit

So, Hoke. [What up, dogg? ]
Should we give ‘em what dey want? [Whats that, G?]
Should we break ‘em off some blitzes? [Hell naw]
I don’t even know what that is! [Sounds dangerous!]

[Hoke]
We in last place so I’ma ask your attention
Losin’ like a mothafucka but I ain’t bitchin’
Bringin’ the same shit that’s makin the remaining fans mumble
When we in Cover-2, we’re like a cookie, we all crumble
If we get the game close, the coverage’s ass’ll get smacked
But my mothafuckin’ homie Richard Smith has my back
Never let me change, cause if I change, where’s the change end?
And if I put in Bennett, then where the fuck I put Faggins
So I’ma continue to play Jacques Reeves, you can’t stop me
And you lost your fucking mind if you think I’ll drop three deep
Yeah, and I don’t quit
I bring the same old shit, I’ll even start Brown and Demps
And tell ‘em to play off, never on, ’til all hope is gone
H-O-U-S-T-O-N, guess it time to focus on the Rockets
Hoke and Rich, bringin’ all the blogs together
Everyone is sayin’ ANYone could do it better

[Chorus]
Don’t blitz, cover or blitz and uh
Don’t cover and don’t blitz and don’t cover and uh
Don’t blitz, and we ain’t got no wins to show
So jus’ chill, ’til we kicked out the do’

Big Picture

Oct 14, 2008 2008 Season, Curious Coaching, Fire Richard Smith, Gary Kubiak, Ranting

After Sunday’s win, there will be people, especially in the fair-weather media, saying that the Texans have finally turned a corner and that they’ve become better overall because they were able to go in there and put together a big game-winning drive.  Someone will point to how this was a telling rebound from last week’s crushing defeat and how that resilience is proof that the Texans are developing.  And I suppose there is some nugget of truth to the idea that your older brother’s Texans would not have won that game, but, Christ, you are talking about a team that was piloted by David Carr.  It’s not exactly earth-shattering news to say that today’s Texans, with the best DE in football, one of the five best WRs and MLBs, and a better RB than they’ve ever had are better than any pre-2006 squad.

No, the question should not be whether the Texans are better today than they were in 2005.  The question should be whether the path they are on right now will make them appreciably better in 2010 than they are in 2008?  If today is the first day of the rest of their collective football life, where does that life wind up?

To be sure, there are a number of positives on this team, many of which were evident yesterday.  Mario Williams in an absolute beast.  He gets held on every single play, sometimes by both blockers, yet he never complains and he still gets to the QB with regularity.  Andre Johnson, unfortunate fumble notwithstanding, is a fantastic wide receiver with a combination of size, skill, and speed that you rarely see.  DeMeco Ryans is everything you could ask for in a MLB.  Along with Johnson, the Texans’ receiving corps as a whole is one of the better ones in football, with every person unselfishly playing his role very well.  The offensive line, while still not perfect, is doing a very good job of keeping Matt Schaub clean and creating running room for Steve Slaton and will only get better as the system takes hold and Duane Brown develops.  Heck, even Vonta Leach is playing the role of blocker for Steve Slaton at a very high level, finishing his blocks through the second level.

Combine these positives with the 8-8 finish of 2007 and it would be very, very easy to believe that we are on the right path.  Seeing a comeback win last yesterday’s only serves to strengthen that perception.

But, as with anything, if the perception itself is flawed, the strengthening of it is all in your head.

Which (finally) brings me to my point: If I may be a little grey cloud of gloom right now, I am going to say right now that I don’t think we are on the right path, or, perhaps more accurately, I don’t think we are on a path that will culminate in sustained success and–gasp!–being a Super Bowl contender.  I think there are some serious organizational and personnel problems that, until they are resolved, are going to keep submarining the team’s efforts, leaving fans saying “man…we’re this close” over and over.

Some of those problems are readily apparent.  Richard Smith is not qualified to call defenses in Pop Warner, let alone in the NFL.  He has no defined defensive philosophy that I can see, he seems confused on how to use his assets (Mario, DeMeco, Bennett, Okoye) and how to hide his liabilities (Faggins, Diles, Johnson).  He refuses to put the best possible defense on the field at any one time and until recently he seemed to be ignoring the mounting evidence that Earl Cochran is the ONLY other consistent DE on the roster.  His players—especially his favorites, like Petey Faggins—are piss-poor tacklers, take poor angles, give way too much cushion to receivers, seem easily fooled by even the slightest trickery, and (as evidenced most recently by Bennett) seem to regress right when you think they are ready to make The Leap.

Likewise, as discussed here recently, Joe Marciano’s squad, at least in this writer’s opinion, is poorly coached from the top down.  They are lazy when it comes to lane integrity, they (like Smith’s charges) seem easily tricked, they allow the opponent to start seemingly EVERY drive past its own 25-yard line, and they botch simple things like FG snaps.  Even worse, it seems like Andre Davis is always running half-speed, looking for a hole rather than just getting up field as quickly as he can on every kickoff.

While those are the obvious ones, I am beginning to think the problem goes even higher.  Yes, I am talking about Gary Kubiak.  I have reached a point where I wonder whether he can actually be a good NFL head coach.  I wonder if he has “it,” whatever “it” is.

Here’s what I mean:  Can you think of a single game in Gary Kubiak’s tenure where we won because he outcoached someone?  Because I can’t.  What I can think of are:

• Utter inability to properly use timeouts or manage the clock, especially when time is the most important.  See, e.g., his unawareness of the lost time in last year’s Atlanta game or the random bits of time we let slide away on Sunday in the last drive.
• Complete cluelessness when it comes to challenges and a tendency to be scared to challenge later in a game if he was wrong (like he usually is) early in the game.
• Play calling that looks like it was scripted by someone who just learned the game of football.  See, e.g., the passing offense scripted by Kubiak and Baby Shan against Tennessee this year.
• Tendency for the team to play down to the level of its competition.  See, e.g., getting owned by a 2007 Falcons team that was so bad its own coach quit before the season ended or barely squeaking by a Dolphins team that won ONE GAME all year.
• Inability to put away games because the team seems to have no philosophy on how to grind clock, move the chains, and avoid turnovers.  (This partly goes back to clock management.)
• Tendency of team to be unaware of situation and proper responses to it.  See, e.g., Eugene Wilson’s INT on Sunday, where NO ONE, coach or player, was yelling for him to simply get the hell down and preserve the win.  That is a coaching mistake because that is the type of thing that should be drilled into players, just as you saw the Colts do when they picked off Rosenfels’ last throw.
• Continued tendency of team to fumble the ball and and throw INTs.  This is a coaching issue when it is endemic.
• Inability of team to be prepared for team-specific wrinkles.  See, e.g., our confusion re: defending the WildCat, despite having two weeks of film on it.
• Refusal of Kubiak (or his staff, save Alex Gibbs) to yell at a player when he really screws up.  Did you see a single coach really get in Eugene Wilson’s ear?  I sure didn’t.
• Steadfast refusal to get rid of people like Richard Smith.

That’s an awful lot of flaws for a guy whose only current positive point is that the team likes him.

Now it’s totally possible that we will rattle off 11 straight wins, in which case Kubes will have proven me wrong.  More likely, however, is that we stumble to 7-9 (i.e. go 6-5 down the stretch) and people talk about how “man, with a couple breaks earlier in the year, this team could easily have been 9-7.”  Which sounds a helluva lot like what we heard at the end of last year.  Then you have to start wondering how many this-close years are we going to have before we change coaches or, worse, miss the window on guys like Andre Johnson?

I fear the answer to that is higher than it should be, simply because Kubiak is such an upgrade over Dom Capers.  But that ignores that Capers was at least hamstrung (to some extent) by a GM that ate paint chips as a child.  Kubiak, on the other hand, is blessed with one of the best young GMs in the game.  That difference has to count for something when you start evaluating just what Kubiak brings to the table.

Please don’t get me wrong here.  I am beyond thrilled that we won Sunday.  I agree with Tim that the win renews ones hope and faith as a fan in the team.  My only concern is that we might currently be on a path where our faith and hope are CONSTANTLY tested because we lack the leadership to get to the next level.  Last week’s game was a microcosm for the experience of being a Texans fan—it seemed like the team was doing everything it could to lose, yet you could see that they were WAY better talent-wise than they were playing, and even though they won it still kinda felt like a loss in some ways.

In the end, if it’s true the Kubiak isn’t HC material, that is no sin.  There are plenty of guys who make good coordinators but poor head coaches.  But while it’s not a sin, it IS the kind of thing we need to figure out and address.  Quickly.

Ambien-laced thoughts from socctty

Oct 1, 2008 2008 Season, Anger, Curious Coaching, Drugs, Teams that aren't the Texans

Don’t ever, ever go to an Oktoberfest for 6 hours and then come home and take a full dose of Ambien. You will end up scaring your girlfriend while you talk to your clothes and accuse them of hiding little people.

That said, let’s take a half-dose of ambien and some Benadryl and watch some clips from NFL.com.

1) Al Davis rants about Lane Kiffin. It’s pretty neat; makes you think that all those leaked media reports from the Raiders before Kiffin got fired were sourced exclusively by… Kiffin! Maybe Lane Kiffin is a douche-bag. Scope Al Davis though around the 11-minute mark. He dimes out Monte Kiffin for expressing interest in the Raiders’ defensive co-ordinator job. Not cool, Al Davis! Fire his son all you want, but don’t embarass a guy and risk that guy’s job because he wanted to work for you.

2) Yes, it’s the Jaguars’ fake punt formation again. I wasn’t digging the “Let’s Fire Marciano also” thing much, but it gains some traction with me every time I watch this video. It was about the third time through hearing it that I thought, “wait a second, that’s a 41-yard run.”

That means that Jacksonville was on OUR 41 yard line. Teams are always going to consider faking it on fourth down whenever they are past the 50-yard line. I don’t think this is something that we’ve been pissed off enough about. Yes, it’s been mentioned that the play sucked, but you would think that it was something like them punting from their own 30. But that’s not what happened! They were in our territory, it was perfectly valid for them to go for it there! It wasn’t even a crazy call! I still can’t believe no one called time-out. No player or coach. Really, really poor. It was as if no one had considered that maybe, just maybe, this guy that they play twice a year that has an affinity for trick plays would go for it given the field position.

But seriously, Ambien is good shit. It’s the closest thing to religion I know.

Rocky Marciano

Sep 30, 2008 2008 Draft, 2008 Training Camp, Albert Haynesworth can go to Hell, Curious Coaching, Demarcus Faggins sucks, Self-Referential Stuff

Building off my comments and Steph’s response to them regarding Joe Marciano in this post, here’s some follow-up info in the spirit of intellectual honesty.

First of all, it should be noted that, overall, Marciano’s squads stack up well according to Pro Football Prospects, as they ranked 3rd overall in 2005 and 2007.  In between, however, they ranked 23rd.  But here’s the rub—those overall rankings are skewed because Marciano’s groups do some things very well and some things average-to-not-well.  Using 2007 as an example, here’s what I mean:

DVOA Rank: 3
FG/XP Rank: 7
Net Punt Rk: 17
Punt Ret Rk: 16
Net Kick Rk: 1
Kick Ret Rk: 2
Hidden Rnk: 16

Now, I am actually shocked about the Net Kick rank from last year, because that sure doesn’t pass the eyeball test, but I will take their word for it.  Here’s my point, though—if your kickoff coverage is very good, how can your punt coverage be mediocre (since it will have many, if not all, of the same bodies on it)?  That sounds like a problem with punt coverage philosophy more than a “stuck with the guys he gets” situation.  Likewise, if your kick return is great but your punt return is bad, is that a problem with the returners (in which case, why doesn’t Marciano change PRs?) or a problem with how you teach punt return blocking?¹

Still, I will admit that, in at least some areas, Marciano’s guys do remarkably well.  I don’t particularly like his philosophy as it relates to special teams, and I put the fake punt fiasco squarely on Marciano for failing to drill emergency procedures into the guys, but I can understand why a person would defend him and want to keep him around.  Which segues us into Steph’s comment:

I must disagree with the analysis of Joe Marciano. First of all, he gets little control of who he gets to work with on special teams. Some of his favorite players over the years who were smart special teamers had to go for various reasons. So he has to deal with whatever young players the team is trying to develop, like many ST coaches do. Kubiak hates specialists, and Pittman better get his stuff together.

This is a fair point. It’s not like Marciano is getting much say in the players who are brought in. The counter-argument to that, however, is two-fold. First, the same could be said for most any ST coach, so I don’t know see that as an excuse so much as part of the job description and there are guys who seem to be better at playing the hands they are dealt. Second, Joe gets to assemble the ST squad from all but about 10 or so on the roster, so he has say in how those squads are assembled and having Petey in a position to affect the outcome of a single play should always, always, ALWAYS be a no-no.

Marciano’s special team units usually by far outperform the rest of the team. His players love playing for him and play hard for him. His worst ST year was Kubiak’s first year when Kubiak didn’t want designated return guys and they had an awful experiment trying to put different guys back there. His ST units have won far more games for the team than have cost the team in general.

As shown above, this is both correct and incorrect as a blanket statement. His kick return/kickoff crew last year was probably the best single unit on the team, but I would definitely argue that the passing game was better than the punt return/coverage unit.

Regarding whether the players like him and play hard, that is definitely true, though playing hard when you are assembled incorrectly as a unit and/or when you lack the talent to play well (see, e.g., Faggins, DeMarcus) only means so much. Still, point taken.

As for “his worst year,” the punt return game for the Texans in 2006 actually ranked 6th, but the rest of the ST play was bad.

I don’t think he has been blessed with good return men. I really think he develops him.

Have to disagree rather strongly here. He didn’t develop Jermaine Lewis, he was blessed with him. He may or may not have developed Jerome Mathis, but it should be somewhat telling that Mathis was best as a rookie (when he’d had the least experience with Joe) and got progressively worse. (Admittedly, injuries played a huge part in this, but I’m just pointing out that developing a guy into a Pro Bowl returner probably takes more than one training camp or else you’d do it all the time.) And Marciano fell backward in Andre Davis, giving him the gig when Joe’s guy Jacoby Jones lost the job. Davis was already a veteran and stepped into the return role quickly because he has world class speed and good hands.

IIRC, he has sent three rookies to the Pro Bowl as returners, including his previous teams.

I think you are right. I’ll grant you that his kick teams are good. Punt teams, still not good.

Last Sunday was an obvious goon, but as for the returns, JAX has a good return team. The Texans got the worst of that.

According to Football Prospectus, J’ville was around league average in both punt and kick returns last year. They might have improved slightly this year, but it’s not like Josh Cribbs and Devin Hester are taking turns back there.

In the end, like I said, I can at least understand the argument for keeping him and I’m not pissed that he’s still around.  I just don’t want people acting like it wouldn’t be possible to improve the special teams play or the special teams coach.

¹ Actually, with last year’s team, there’s a third possible explanation—Andre Davis made everyone on kick returns look better because he was ungodly. But Marciano didn’t develop him so much as fall luckily into him. But I digress.

The Problem With Richard Smith, Or, Perhaps More Accurately, Referendum On Coaching Incompetence

Sep 30, 2008 2008 Season, Chocodiles, Curious Coaching, DeMeco Ryans, Hi Steve!, Kevin Bentley, Morlon Greenwood, Ranting, Super Mario

Let me just start by saying that, by and large, I agree with Tim and Chris’s points on the game.  There were lots of positives (for the offense) and lots of negative (for the defense and special teams).  In fact, this was one of those games that I didn’t really feel the need to write a recap of, since the goods and the bads were so glaringly obvious.

But, still, my job (as it were) here is to talk about the Houston Texans (as well as make inappropriate remarks about the team and people associated with it).  So rather than do a traditional recap, let’s hit some big picture points.

First, if I were the GM of this team, Richard Smith would not be receiving paychecks from me.  And I don’t just mean going forward, as he should have and would have been fired a long time ago.  After all, the problems are manifold and obvious–no cohesive philosophy, no idea how to use his assets, no clue how or when to blitz, no attempt to adjust when another team is going the Tecmo Bowl route and burning you with the same exact play over and over and over and over, and nothing to suggest that his charges are this close to turning the corner and becoming markedly better.  We’ve spent numerous first- and second-round draft picks on defense, especially the front seven, yet we remain incapable of getting to the QB before the ball is thrown or creating turnovers or (on many days) even tackling with any regularity.  That’s ALL on Richard Smith.

Despite cries for his head after last year, Smith got a free pass to come back for another 16 games because (a) Mario became dominant in 2007 and (b) there were so many injuries that it somehow seemed unfair (to everyone but me, I guess) to fire him when he was shorthanded.  Unfortunately, last year’s MASH unit was actually better, at least to the naked eye, than this year’s healthy squad has been.  If Smith were any kind of DC, doing better this year than last should have been the easiest assignment of his tenure.  Instead, everyone except Mario (yes, even DeMeco) seems to have stagnated or regressed in 2008.

Sunday’s game was a snapshot of the entire Richard Smith experience—players out of position, inexplicable defensive calls in tight situations, defensive backs who looked lost and exposed.  Even worse, one got the feeling that absolutely none of those problems was going to go away until Smith himself went away.  So, while I have railed against Smith in this space for over a year, I feel like it’s time to turn it up a bit.  In that vein, “FIRE RICHARD SMITH” is now the official motto of DGDB&D 2008.  I realize that I have no pull and a relatively limited audience, but I figure saying it a lot and trying to get others to spread the message absolutely cannot hurt our cause.  Say it loud, say it often, and say it to anyone who will listen.

Moving on…

As bad as Smith’s squad was Sunday, Joe Marciano’s was even worse.  And I’m not just talking about their inability to recognize that a team cannot punt when there is no punter lined up behind the center, though that was certainly the most egregious example.  But, yeah, it was worse than that.  All day long, our returners made horrible decisions and/or did nothing while our coverage teams allowed Jacksonville’s return men to get huge chunks of yardage on seemingly every kick.  In fact, thus far in 2008, on Kevin Bentley has really been a consistent contributor on special teams.

Like Richard Smith, Marciano probably should have been gone a while ago.  However, because he’s been blessed to have some very, very good return men, as well as the occasional solid cover guy, he’s been able to keep his job.  Nevermind that, as a Texans fan, you have reached a point where you just expect the other team to be starting somewhere past their own 25 on every single possession.  Hopefully, for my own sanity as well as the future success of your Houston Texans, Sunday’s game was the beginning of the end of the Marciano era.  If not, here’s to hoping that Kevin Bentley becomes the next Eugene Seale.

Thirdly, can someone please tell me what the heck is going on between Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson?  Because I honestly cannot come up with any sort of answer that makes sense.  Some have suggested that maybe Andre’s injury has changed his route running or made him slower, but it seems like the passes to Schaub are behind Andre rather than out in front.  Others have suggested that they are just not clicking because they didn’t get to play together very much in the second half of last season, but they had never played together before last season and they started the year firing on all cylinders.  Like I said…I don’t get it.

What I DO get, however, is that our offense on Sunday was on fire and looked like the team from early 2007 that was putting up points fast and often.  And that’s without Andre being involved even half as much as you would have assumed.  If/when he and Matt get back on the same page, the Texans should be able to score against just about anyone.  Judging by the success Denver had (prior to the KC game), a high-powered offense combined with a non-tackling defense can still win you more than it loses you, at least until playoff time rolls around.  Maybe, for now, we need to approach the game like those old Colts and Rams teams did—we are going to put up 35 or more most weeks and assume that even our sub-par defense can stop you a couple of times.  Scoreboard, holmes.

Finally, a couple quick thoughts on some players:

Steve Slaton is your running back for the foreseeable future.  That TD pass he caught was the product of a route that no previous Texans RB could have done.  In the modern, pass-happy NFL, having a back who can split out wide and blow by a corner is a luxury and it’s one that we now possess.  This is very, very happy news.

Morlon Greenwood, what has happened to you?  Consider this my official mea culpa: I was wrong on Morlon in 2008 and it’s time to replace him with…

Kevin Bentley.  Gotta love what you’ve seen from LVJ so far.  He’s playing fantastic on special teams, he’s one of the few guys on the team who has shown a willingness to hit, wrap up, and tackle, and he even looked solid playing in place of DeMeco for a few snaps Sunday.  So, I ask ya, is there any reason not to assume that he would be an upgrade over Greenwood or Zac “I’m Way Too Small To Play SLB” Diles?  I think not.

Dear Jacques Reeves, TURN AROUND AND FIND THE BALL EVERY NOW AND THEN.  Signed, Anyone With Two Ounces Of Common Sense.

Last, but certainly not least, a kudos to the entire offense line (but, especially, Duane Brown) on Sunday.  Nicely done, gentlemen.  I see that you’ve realized that keeping Matt upright makes you look good and makes the whole team better.  Let’s continue that approach against the Colts in what is certain to be an absolutely rocking Reliant Stadium this week.

DGDB&D Guest Post feat. Vega

Sep 24, 2008 Conventional Wisdom Can Blow Me, Curious Coaching, Gary Kubiak might be high, Guest Posts, I really dig my readers, I was told there would be no math

Because he was the only other person besides myself that I saw arguing that Kubiak’s fourth-down plays were statistically correct, I asked math dork guru Vega to run the numbers for a guest post.  Enjoy.

70% of Statistics are Made Up on the Spot
by: Vega

Last week, Gary Kubiak went for it on fourth down six times in the game against the BE-SF’s. SIX!! Who the fuck does that?! Did he have a meth-contact high? Probably. But I think that accounts more for his play calling and challenges than it did for his fourth down decisions.

Kubiak actually played the percentages pretty well on those situations. Yeah, I know we still lost. Yeah, I know we only made 2 of those 6 (33%). But that’s the thing about percentages. There’s always that chance you’ll get fucked. The idea is to increase the probability that you fuck someone else, because we all know it’s better to fuck than be fucked. [Ed. note: Not according to Foomey.] Simply put, that’s really the coach’s only job.

We’ve all heard about the fact that coaches are as a whole more conservative on 4^th down than they statistically should be, but what does that really mean? The original line of thinking on fourth down conversions vs. field goals comes from this paper from Economics Professor David Romer from the University of Cal–Berkley. He used economic models of expected returns to see if coaches were really maximizing their probability of winning. If you’re not into busting your brain on math with no numbers, let me give you the super simplified version.

Romer starts by assigning a value to field position. Basically, he assigns expected points based on the long term expected return of having first and ten from every yard line minus the value of where you would leave your opponent. For example, having first and ten from your own one is worth -1.6 points because you’re unlikely to score many points, but you’re likely to leave your opponent with good field position.

He then estimated the value of kicks at every point on the field by taking the expected point return on a field goal minus the value of average field position on the ensuing kickoff. For punts he took the value of the average field position of where you would leave your opponent. Finally, he looked at fourth down conversion probabilities for 4^th and 1, 4^th and 2, all the way to 4^th and 10, at every yard line (technically he used 3^rd down stats because there wasn’t enough data on 4^th downs, but it works pretty well).

When the dust settled, Romer had developed a method where you can look at fourth and whatever from any point on the field and determine your expected point return by either going for it or kicking. He was then nice enough to plot this on a chart so you can just look at it and see what you should do (statistically speaking). Easy peasy, Japanesy.

Now let’s take a look at the six occasions where Kubiak went for it.

* Within standard error, so there is no definitive answer, but it is on the “Go for it” side.

So it looks like with the exception of the last two, Kubiak made the statistically rational decision four out of six times. Ah, if only it were that simple.

For the sake of simplicity, the study was done with data independent of game situations. In other words, it didn’t take into consideration the score, time left on the clock, quality of the teams, etc. So let’s look at each of these a little bit closer.

· 4^th and 1 from Tenn 11; 9:58 2^nd Q: Romer says to go for it. At this point, there was plenty of time left in the game so we can take Romer’s recommendation at face value. Good call.

· 4^th and 4 from Tenn 10; 5:20 3^rd Q: This one is close. According to Romer, when a call is right on the boundary, the team should be fairly indifferent to going for it vs. kicking, so you should really play the game situation. I can see the argument against Kubiak as a FG would have made the score 24-15 with over a quarter left to play. Remember that if we kick the FG, Tenn probably ends up with the ball at the 27, so we in essence reduce our probability of getting the ball back with the same score. Still, considering Tennessee had started going with the “let’s just not fuck up” game plan and we would leave them field position worth about -1, so we stand a good chance of getting the ball back with good field position. Hold on… I have a headache… All in all, both the score and the game situation slightly lean towards going for it, so I say go for it.

· 4^th and 3 from Tenn 17; 9:11 4^th Q: Again, this one is close so we need to consider the game situation. Down twelve with 9 minutes left. Kick a FG and we need another FG and a TD to win. If we miss, we need two TDs. The argument for conservatism is a little stronger here as the game situation starts to become more important than the statistical analysis. The problem here though is that we had 2^nd and 3. We ran it left for two yards on second down and then threw to Slaton in the flat on 3^rd for a loss of two. Way to push the ball down field guys.

· 4^th and 2 from Tenn 2; 7:12 4^th Q: Ok, this one is a no brainer. The stats say go and the game situation says go. That said, I’d like to send a big “Fuck You” to Kubes on the play calling again. Let’s look at the prior plays.

o 1^st and 4 from the 4: Run Slaton right end for three yards.

o 2^nd and 1 from the 1: Incomplete pass to a well covered Apostrophe. That’s a timing route that wasn’t even close. With that coverage, Schaub should have either floated one to the corner or looked for another receiver. That’s fucking crazy talk!

o 3^rd and 1 from the 1: Pass to Kevin Walter for -1 yard. Yeah, because when I have one yard to go against a super aggressive defense, I don’t even like to look at the endzone.

o 4^th and 2 from the 2: Run Slaton up the middle against the strength of the defense. Look, Slaton had a great game, but most of that success was to the left and to a lesser extent to the right; NOT up the middle where our Oline was getting dominated. Throughout the game, Slaton had one rush up the middle that gained more than one yard and that was to close out the first half.

· 4^th and 10 from Tenn 48; 4:26 4^th Q: Romer says kick, but I think we’ve gotten to that point in the game where you’re willing to take on more risk because of the game situation. Down 12 with less than five minutes left, you have to go for it. Again though, the big problem here is if you look at the prior downs. 1^st, 2^nd, and 3^rd downs were incompletions.

· 4^th and 10 from Tenn 48; 1:17 4^th Q: Same as before. Stats say kick, but who gives a fuck. You HAVE to go for this. The pick was not really Schaub’s fault as Vanden Bosch was given the red carpet treatment on his way to Schaub’s knee. But again, we had 2^nd and 3 from the 4 and ran at Haynesworth and VB. We then took a sack on third down to put ourselves in this spot.

To sum this all up, it doesn’t look like we made the bad decision to go for it on fourth down on these plays, but where we fucked up was in putting ourselves in too many fourth downs. This came from weak play calling and poor execution. So while some may say that one of our problems last week came from being too aggressive on fourth down, I would argue that we weren’t aggressive enough on first second and third downs and ended up in too many fourth down situations.

Let me leave you with this.

We were first and goal from inside the 10 three times, and first and 10 from the 11 once more. Three of those times we ended up with a fourth down situation. That’s why we lost the game.

About Lasterday

Sep 8, 2008 2008 Season, Andre Johnson, Anthony Weaver is a thief, Babyeating-Sisterfuckers, Curious Coaching, Damn it, DeMeco Ryans, Hi Steve!, Morlon Greenwood, Super Mario

Alt. post title: “Chainsaw Sodomy”

So, I suppose I have to say something about the game.  Something more than “well, fuck,” I mean.

At the same time, there’s really not much to say that hasn’t been said.  We played like shit, especially in the secondary and on the o-line.  We let the back-to-back bad calls on the ball spot demoralize us.  Schaub looked indecisive, slow to deliver, and (apparently) blind to the colors black and yellow.  (He should see an optometrist about that.)

Before we pour salt into those wounds, however, let us see if I can come up with five positives from the contest:

1. Mario Williams.  If last year’s 10 sacks in the last six games didn’t sway you, Mario’s dominance against a team that was holding the entire rest of our defense in check should.  Two sacks, a forced fumble, and a team-high six tackles?  He’s good.

2. DeMeco Ryans and Andre Johnson.  You’ve gotta love two pros who, despite the fact that most of the team isn’t giving ANY effort and despite the score, continue to play their balls off until the end.  Johnson was more or less unstoppable.  Too bad Schaub never had the time to really exploit this.

3. Steve Slaton.  I know that his average wasn’t that great, but dude ran hard, was not afraid of contact or to run between the tackles, and showed no hesitation in making his cut and going.  If he’s not the starter soon, I’ll be shocked.

4. It’s only week 1.  There’s a good chance that we will not face a more physical team all year than the Pittsburgh Steelers.  There’s an equally good chance that our staff (sans Richard Smith) is smart enough to see where we sucked and try to make some adjustments (more on that in a bit).  To get that winning record, we just have to go 9-6 now instead of 9-7.  Not the end of the world.  I think.

5. No injuries.  For as bad as the game was, at least we escaped intact.  Watching the debacle unfold, I was struck by how, had this game happened last year, at least four players would likely have wound up broken in half.  [Update: After I wrote this, I heard from Chris that Ahman Green is injured.  Big fucking deal.]

Enough with the Pollyanna bullshit.  For every one good thing above, there are at least five bad things that happened.  The ones that really stuck out were:

1. The Playcalling.  This goes for offense and defense.  Now, I suppose the latter is not surprising, as Richard Smith’s play selection was a topic of much anger and despair around here for all of the 2007 season (save, possibly, for two or three games in November).  The former, however, did surprise me.  If Shannahan can’t call a game better than that, maybe Gary needs to take control of that side of the ball for good.  There was none of the explosiveness that we saw in the early part of last season.  While some of that is because Schaub was pestered all day long by Harrison and Woodley, that doesn’t explain all of it.  There was no attempt to run outside zone at all that I noticed, there were FAR too many short passes on third down, etc., etc., etc.

2. The Secondary.  Holy Christ On Rollerskates, they were atrocious.  The Fred might want to double-check and see if the equipment guy packed his jockstrap because Fred got shaken out of it early in the day.  Reeves was bad, but actually not quite as bad as he’d been in the preseason (though it would have been nice if he had the hands to snag that fumble before it went out of bounds).  But the safeties…if they were any worse, we’d have been better off playing with 9 defensive players.  Demps looked slow and C.C. looked soft.  I am with SOLIS here–we should move Demps to SS (he’s better moving forward and playing the run anyway) and let Eugene Wilson try his hand at FS.  No other move really makes sense (until Dunta comes back, that is.)

3. All LBs whose names do not rhyme with ReMeco Dyans.  Morlon Greenwood…dude…do you have any idea how big of an asshole you are making me look like?  How could you have seemingly aged five years since January?  Why are you ALWAYS out of position?  Does it bother you that teams are throwing and running right at you now?  C’mon, dude.  And Zac, you weren’t necessarily awful, but you sure didn’t do anything to make me say “well, at least HE came to play today.”

4. The Offensive Line.  Wow.  Kung Fu Panda was brutal, but I am almost willing to give him a pass, as asking a rookie to hold James Harrison in check all day in his first start is a suicide mission from the outset.  Eric Winston, I am not as willing to let you slide—you just got fat dollars from the team, yet you looked like you were trying to be a matador out there.  Don’t gimme this “ole!” bullshit.  Chris Myers, you might not want to let yourself get thrown into the running back.  That could be a sign that you just got owned.

5. Matt Schaub.  Yes, I know, he had little time to throw.  When he did have time, however, he looked scared, he looked like a certain other Texans QB who had no mental clock for when to get rid of the ball, and he looked right past the Steelers defenders who might stand between him and his intended target.  And what the fuck was that red zone throw that hit the goddamned crossbar?!?  Who was supposed to catch that, Matthew?!  Also, I know you love Andre Johnson.  We all do.  But you might want to look around a little bit from time to time so you don’t miss Vonta Leach so wideopen that he could have moonwalked into the fucking endzone.

There are plenty more, including 3/4ths of the defensive line, but you get the gist by the now.

*deep breath*

OK…all that said, I am not yet ready to panic.  All of the bad spots can be fixed (or, in the case of the secondary, at least patched up and made to look decent) and we still have Baltimore coming up next week.  They are like Pittsburgh (3-4 defense, surprisingly mobile QB) without all the good stuff (defensive speed, talent at WR).  On top of that, the Jags were bad in every area I suggested they’d be bad this year and the Colts looked pretty exposed when faced with a team that was willing to throw under the Tampa-2 all day.  Besides, the BE-SFs are without their intangibly great QB for 4-6 weeks (don’t buy into that 2-4 week bullshit) and will either suck while he’s gone or face the mother of all QB controversies.  Life could be much, much worse.

I think.

Oh, as a final note, there is a difference between being a fan, being an internet troll, and just being an obtuse douchebag.  Suffice it to say Beans Carter falls squarely into this last category.  Apparently the Titans are the class of the AFC and the Texans are the worst team in football.  Or something along those lines.  It’s always so hard to decipher stupidity.

Why The Jacksonville Jaguars Will Not Make The Playoffs This Year

Sep 7, 2008 Curious Coaching, Teams that aren't the Texans

Everyone and their brother has the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Indianapolis Colts battling it out for the division crown in 2008, as if it is a foregone conclusion that both of them will definitely make the playoffs.  Now, maybe the rest of this post is just wishful thinking on my part.  I mean, it’s totally possible that I am just looking for a way to convince myself that we are closer to the rest of the division than we really are.  But, at the same time, I just can’t shake the feeling that the Jacksonville Jaguars are going to take a big step backward this year.  In fact, I can think of at least four reasons why they could/will slide:

1. The loss of Marcus Stroud.  As someone who has been screaming about our own need for quality tackles since before Okoye was drafted, I don’t think I can overstate the impact that Marcus Stroud had on the Jaguars defense.  In a nutshell, Jacksonville’s stingy defense was built around the notion that you absolutely could not run against them because of Stoud and John Henderson in the middle, so everyone in the place knew you were going to have to throw.  They could then pin their collective ears back on the outside and get after QBs.

This two-pronged attack of impenetrable run defense and good pressure from the front four masked one glaring weakness that no one likes to talk about—the guys in the back seven are not that great.  Oh, sure, Rashean Mathis is good (though he was inconsistent last year) and Reggie Nelson shows flashes of great talent, but Gerald Sensabaugh?  He’s tough, but he’s a back-up at best.   Brian Williams?  Average corner, who can’t hang with top receivers, and who is likely to see more time at safety. Drayton Florence? He’s a cheap-shot-throwing cockgobbler, and while he arrives with a lot of hype, he ranked 66th among CBs in Success % and 72nd in Average Yards Allowed Per Pass.

In front of those guys, Mike Peterson is a force when he is healthy…which is about 6 games per year. Daryl Smith is a solid player, I suppose (though he did rank 60th in run stopping among LBs),but one gets the impression that his success in pass coverage (6th in Success %) is due to being asked to cover for a very short time.  If there is no rush from the front four, he won’t be able to cover anyone because he’ll be drafted for one of Gregg Williams’ ridiculous blitzing schemes. (More on that in a bit.) Clint Ingram is…what’s the word…oh, yeah, mediocre.  At best.  Backup LB Justin Durant, who played Smith’s position when Peterson went down and Smith moved over, is talented and has very good speed, but is more suited for the outside LB role than the MLB position, leaving the team without a true MLB when Peterson eventually gets hurt.

Add to these question marks that pass defense was already a bit of a problem for the Jags last year and you can see how losing Stroud could be a huge deal.

Now, those who would tell you that the Jags will be fine without Stroud are banking on Rob Meier taking over Stroud’s Under Tackle position without missing (much of) a beat.  After all, he did rank 1st among D-linemen in Stop % last year.  They are, additionally, banking on either career pass-rush specialist Reggie Hayward becoming a real first- and second-down DE or one (or both) of the rookie DEs, Quentin Groves and Derrick Harvey, being dominant on third down (or more).  Why is no one concerned about this?  Meier has been a good back-up for years and he has strong, quick hands, but he does not have near the power that Stroud had at the point of contact and he is not even in the same league as Stroud when it comes to run defense.  His high stop rate last year was no indicative of overall skill unless you really believe that a 30-year-old situational DT suddenly took a leap to be among the NFL elite.  So, how much of a drop off will he be and, more importantly, how much of a drop off can the defense take?

Now, I am not saying that the defense is suddenly going to be devoid of talent.  Paul Spicer is overrated, in large part because people say dumb things like he got 41 quarterback pressures last year, but he is still a good-to-very-good player.  John Henderson is still a beast.  And, like I mentioned throughout the above, there is talent at a number of positions.  My only point is the loss of Stroud has the potential to big a much bigger problem than anyone is saying.  First, if you can run on them with relative ease, they can no longer expect teams to be forced to throw on second and third downs, thus you slow down their pass rush AND you open up the play action.  Second, if they aren’t getting a big push up front with their downlinemen, you immediate exacerbate the weaknesses in the secondary.  (As to this second point, it is a lesson that Texans fans know all too well.)

2. David Garrard is not as good as he looked last year.  I’m going to be blunt: there is no way in Hell that Garrard only throws three interceptions in 2008.  His three picks in 325 attempts last year (.9% INT rate) was tied for the lowest since 1983.  Steve DeBerg, the man with whom Garrard tied, went from 4 INTs in 1990 to 14 in 1991.  In fact, according to Football Outsiders,

Since 1983, seven quarterbacks threw at least 325 attempts with an interception rate of 0.9 percent or lower, and also threw 325 passes for the same team the following year. In the second year, that rate went up to an average of 3.5 percent, higher than the average interception rate of 3.2 percent for all qualifying quarterbacks over that timeframe.

So, if you assume he will bump up to around 3.5%, that’s 11 or 12 INTs in 2008 if his number of attempts stays about the same.  Does that make him worthless?  Of course not.  But it does make a difference.  The Jags thrive on grind-it-out football, clock management, and the like.  11 or 12 INTs can have a huge impact on that kind of ball control offense.  (And the 3.5% might be being generous, since he had a 3.7% rate in 241 attempts in 2006.)

An even bigger question, though, is David Garrard in general.  Yes, he had a good year last year.  But NFL history is littered with guys who had one good year.  See, e.g., Mitchell, Scott and Johnson, Brad.  Until Garrard shows that he is closer in talent to the guy who played in 2007 than the guy who played in 2006 (10 DYAR, -4.8% DVOA), Jags fans should remain cautiously optimistic and nothing more.

2a. Speaking of Garrard, who exactly is he going to throw to? If you really believe that head-case, never-been-a-number-one-guy, missing-the-whole-preseason-on-the-PUP-list, runs-lazy-routes-even-when-he’s-healthy Jerry Porter is going to transform the Jaguars’ passing attack, please raise your hand.  Anyone?  I didn’t think so.  Troy Williamson?  The guy has 79 career catches and the Vikings—a team that desperately needs WRs—let him go. Matt Jones?  Dennis Northcutt? C’mon.  The Jaguars’ WR situation makes the Texans’ RB situation seem settled and unproblematic.

3. Good bye Mike Smith; hello Gregg Williams.  With 2007 D-coordinator Mike Smith gone to pilot the lead balloon in Atlanta, the Jaguars bring in former Redskins DC, Gregg Williams.  Now, the optimist will look at the Skins’ D over the last few years and see that they were consistently in the top 10.  That is true.  But what that overlooks is:

• Williams’ system, for all its ridiculous blitzes, was fairly good in terms of sacks in 2004, before becoming below average in 2005, dead-last in 2006, and only slightly above average in 2007.
• The Redskins were average in INTs in 2004 and 2005,  dead-last in 2006, and well below average last year.
• Williams scheme puts an insane amount of pressure on the secondary, especially the corners, and we’ve already discussed the problems the Jags’ secondary has.
• Williams has already shown a complete inability to effectively utilize talented safeties.  (For proof, ask any Redskins fan to tell you about Williams’ insistence that Sean Taylor play 25 yards off the line just to prevent the team from giving up the deep ball…which they were doing BECAUSE of the pressure his “system” was putting on the corners.)
• Even worse (and I can’t find the link) Williams and his proponents are saying how Reggie Nelson is going to “be the Jags’ Bob Sanders.”  Umm…what?  Nelson is a 4-3 FS whose biggest talent is his coverage ability.  (Remember, there was talk of him playing CB in the NFL coming out of college.)  Sanders is a Cover-2 SS whose biggest asset is run support and whose coverage responsibilities are limited.  On top of all this insanity, last year Nelson was abysmal in run support.
• Williams’ system gets credit for being aggressive, but unlike, say, Jim Johnson’s always-moving-forward approach, Williams’ is a ridid, no-freelancing-allowed, read-and-react sort of system.  Just because it sends five and six rushers does not change the fact that, many times, the whole defense plays as if they are on their heels.

4. History.  Very few teams in today’s NFL are able to win 10-12 games a year every year.  Generally, there are a couple steps forward, then a slide back, later, rinse, repeat.  Over the last five years, the Jags have gone 5-11, 9-7, 12-4, 8-8, and 11-5.  Now, which seems more likely–another step forward, say to 12 or 13 wins, or a slide back to the 7-9 win range?  Assuming the QB throws more INTs, the defense isn’t as good, and, hell, that 32-year-old Fred Taylor won’t get 200 carries this year, I think the latter is much more likely.

So, there ya have it.  Like I said at the beginning, this whole thing might just be my way to make myself feel better about our upcoming season.  Nevertheless, I stand by it.  Jags < 10 wins.

Vaya con dios, asqueroso grande

Jul 22, 2008 2006 Draft, 2008 Draft, 2008 Season, Barbaro is dead, Charles Spencer, Curious Coaching, Duane Brown as Eliza Doolittle, Roster, Tim Bulman

First, my Spanish sucks.  Sorry if my translation is off.

Anyway, by now I’m sure you’ve heard that Charles “Big Nasty” Spencer was released today.  I don’t think any of us expected him to be the LT of the future, especially after the arrival of Alex Gibbs and Duane Brown.  Nor do I think anyone was shocked that a round of cuts came today considering that the team had to get down to 80 players by Friday and the easiest way to get there was to get rid of the guys least likely to make the team.  (Which is also why DGDB&D fave Jon Abbate as well as DT Eric Powell and G Dan Stevenson were sent packing this afternoon.)

No, I guess the only surprise, to the extent that there is one, is that Spencer was listed among the guys least likely to make the team, ahead of (or behind, I guess) such notables as TE Ryan Krause and/or 5-10 WR Mark Simmons.  Nothing against those guys, but you’d think that seeing what (if anything) Spencer had in the tank would be worth more than seeing what Mark Simmons brings to the table.  (Editor’s guess: Not much.)

In other, slightly related news while we are talking about roster space, I am still baffled about our continued employment of Bryan Pittman when THREE other Texans (Dreessen, Bulman, and Zgonina) can do his job while simultaneously not being limited to ONLY doing his job.  Dreessen would actually be the perfect dude to fill the dual role, as he is not asked to do much in the TE department on most days.

Kickoff

Jun 25, 2008 Andre Johnson, Babyeating-Sisterfuckers, Batman, Curious Coaching, I really dig my readers, Jacoby Jones' beer bong, Kickoff, Sandy Vag

Über-commenter Eric came through today with three solid links and a kick ass picture, so this is the all-Eric Kickoff Edition.

Idiot-Proofing The Offseason.  As we’ve seen (Mario Wililams, Jacoby Jones), free time can be dangerous for young players with lots of money.  There’s only so much you can do about that through the winter and spring, but Smithiak have found a way to deal with it during the summer–shorten the amount of freetime by extending summer workouts.

One team subscribing to this theory is Houston. The Texans started their offseason program March 31 and won’t conclude until the week after July 4th, leaving less than two weeks between the end of the program and the start of training camp on July 25. It’s clear Texans GM Rick Smith and coach Gary Kubiak are hoping this wrinkle will pay dividends on the field. In a copycat league, many teams will be looking at the Texans to see how this plays out.

God, let them be smarter than the average Pats fan.  A prediction from a Patriots blog re: AFC South standings.  The Texans’ final record is a thing of beauty, this line about VY is gold. “VY needs to improve his incredibly poor accuracy. He seriously can’t hit a group of shirtless men in a bar.”

Not earth-shaking, but still informative.  A USA Today piece breaking down the offseason changes, the need for people (read: Green, Schaub, Johnson) to stay healthy, and the arrival of Alex Gibbs.

Cannot Approach Reasonable Respectability. Finally, a little flashback humor.

Kickoff

Jun 21, 2008 2008 Season, Andre Johnson, Corky Johnson, Curious Coaching, Fantasy Geeks, Kickoff, Okam's Razor, Will Demps makes love to the...ladies?

To Be The Best, You’ve Got To Beat The Best Just Stay Healthy.  CBSSports’ fantasy football coverage offers a write-up of Andre Johnson, how ridiculously good he is, and how important it is for him to be 100% healthy this year. My only knock on the article is that it ends with a hint that Johnson is “injury prone.”  (As an aside: I still rank Kubaik’s decision to leave Johnson on the field once the Panthers game was in hand as his worst single decision ever.) (H/T b0ng, via Eric)

Come Along And Ride On A Fantasy Voyage. Another fantasy sports article regarding your Houston Texans.  A fairly straight-forward and honest write-up, with little in the way of surprise.  In fact, the main reason I am posting it is so I can quote this line: “The only addition the team made to the defensive line was fifth-rounder tackle Frank Okam, who needs to supplant the very injury-prone Travis Johnson as soon as possible.”  Replace “injury-prone” with “retarded” and we are in agreement, anonymous web author. (H/T Eric)

Ladies Love 37th Ranked DBs. Rounding out our Saturday Kickoff fantasygasm, here’s an article ranking the top 50 fantasy DBs coming into 2008.  Our own Smoove Will is #37 and C.C. Brown in #39.  The fact that these two are ranked and Fred Bennett is not should tell you all you need to know about the translation from real-life football to fantasy football.

Kickoff

Jun 20, 2008 Curious Coaching, DeMeco Ryans, I love defensive football, Kickoff, Self-Referential Stuff

He’s not dead.  I thought I would just mention that BFD is, in fact, still alive and will resume posting at some point.  I haven’t fired him (because, honestly, why the fuck would I) and he’s not been abducted by Titans fans that I know of.  I imagine he’ll return sometime around the end of the month.

Phallout.  Interesting discussion of my 4-3 post from the other day.  Not interesting so much in what they add to the post, but in their discussion of me.  “He has no wife.”  I had to laugh. (As an aside, I’ll point out in reference to a comment in that thread that the only way I think Reeves can do what the Eagles’ CBs do is in terms of getting to the QB in a very short amount of time. )

I want to punch that Verizon dude in the mouth. Article on DeMeco using the defensive headset.  Nothing groundbreaking, other than it quotes Richard Smith saying, basically, that this is a huge advantage for the defense.  You know what else is a huge advantage?  Not calling plays like a scared old woman.  Just sayin’.

A revised look at 4-3 defensive theory

Jun 17, 2008 2008 Season, Broken Record, Colvin, Curious Coaching, DeMeco Ryans, Dunta Robinson, Football 101, I love defensive football, Morlon Greenwood, Okam's Razor, Posts that list too many players, Rendhel and Sid, Teams that aren't the Texans, The Fred, Will Demps makes love to the...ladies?

Because two of my good friends are Giants and Redskins fans, respectively, I find myself engaged in more conversations about NFC East football that one would expect for a Texans fan. However, because I am obsessed with defensive football–especially defensive line play–I actually enjoy these chats and, more often than not, come away with some new ideas about our team.

Anyway, one idea that we’ve been kicking around lately is that the Texans should run a variation on the Eagles’ defense because (a) our personnel is tailor-made for such a system and (b) that system would allow our front seven to protect the weaknesses in our back four, just like it did for the Super Bowl Champion Giants.  Sounds good, no?

Let me back up a bit, though, and lay this out. Back in late October of last season,