2500 Words on Roster Depth
Jan 21, 2008 2008 Draft, Alex Gibbs, Curious Coaching, Demarcus Faggins sucks, Free Agency, Gary Kubiak, I really need a different hobby, Like whoa, Posts that list too many players, Predictions Guaranteed To Go Wrong, Roster, Rumors
[Author's note: I've written this in fits and starts, had a bunch of different things I wanted to cover, and never really worked it through beginning to end. If it rambles, I apologize; if there are factual mistakes, they are mine.]
As we discussed in part one of my obsessive-compulsive pre-draft coverage, what a team should do in the draft cannot be determined in a vacuum. Therefore, to do this correctly, we need to compile as much information as possible and create a coherent Big Picture from which to work. So consider this Part Two of the project.
Now, whereas the last post focused on answering questions about the team, this one is going to take a look at what we know (or, more accurately, what we think we know) about the team and its tendencies. Hopefully, by combining what we know with our answers to the original questions, we can create an epistemological framework for analyzing the 2008 Draft. In this post, we will address what we know about the relative depth at the various positions on the roster.
1. Where we are thin. There are really two kinds of depth in the NFL. There is the “we have a body in case this guy goes down” and there’s “we have enough talent at a position to do all sorts of permutations and substitutions and keep everyone fresh while remaining effective on every snap.” For an example of the latter, look at the NY Giants defensive ends.
Thing is, only the “talent” depth is worth anything at all. In fact, you can go further and say having the “body” kind of depth as an actual goal is just plain stupid. I mean, you have a 53-man roster, so by definition you should always have enough bodies to replace an injured starter. So effin’ what? The point is to have depth with talent. While the Giants’ situation with their DEs is rare, it is the type of all teams should aspire to. Ideally, every guy on your roster is there because he was the best available player at his position in terms of what your team will ask of him. I say, “ideally,” however because teams and coaches seem to insist on carrying guys that serve no purpose (Petey Faggins) when there is almost certainly a better alternative out there. And they do it because “he gives us depth,” as if such a statement means anything.
How useless is “body” depth? As we saw with our secondary this year, even if every guy you planned on relying upon has been hurt and you have reached the end of your roster and have no guys left at a position, you are still going to be able to find someone to fill a hole. It might not always be pretty, but it’ll fill the hole and, really, the free agent on the street is unlikely to be appreciably worse than that 50th guy on your opening day roster. (And, on the flipside, you might just find a Will Demps who should not have been released by his former team and still has Pro Bowl-level talent.)
Anyway…all of this is just pie-in-the-sky rambling. Moving on.
Back to the point–where are we thin? The most obvious answer is in the Secondary, where neither of the top two CBs from 2007 is likely to start the season opener in 2008 and it remains to be seen if and to what degree Dunta Robinson will contribute in 2008. Moreover, Glenn Earl is an unrestricted free agent, is coming off a season-ending foot injury, and was never suited to be a free safety in the first place. Even worse, some of the backups–Jason Simmons (injured), Dexter Wynn, Von Hutchins (craptastic), and Roc Alexander (injured) are unrestricted free agents as well. Oh, and C.C. Brown is a restricted free agent. So, yeah, even if you account for unknowns like Derrick Roberson and Curome Cox, as of this very moment, it is not a stretch at all to say this unit is thinner than Tara Reid on a three-month coke bender.
Second–and perhaps most arguably–we are thin at RB. Ron Dayne (and this is the ONLY time you’ll see him listed among things that are thin) and Darius Walker are currently 1-2 on the depth chart I suppose, as Ahman Green is still a huge question mark. He’s injured, he’s old, he’s expensive, and he’s unproductive…but he’s also who we were relying upon as recently as 6 months ago. [Edit: Plus, you have the constant question of "is this the year Chris Taylor stays healthy and produces?"] With that kind of unsettled situation and only two healthy RBs–neither of whom is exactly something to write home about–you can only describe the position as “lacking.”
The final answer to my way of thinking is NT. Because we don’t have one. The Texans roster on the team homepage lists Travis Johnson as our only NT (most likely as a hold-over designation from the 3-4 days that no one bothered to change), but there are all kinds of things wrong with giving him that label. First, the mere fact that he outweighs our other DTs (other than Cedric Killings) does not make him a two-gap player. Second, he’s not even the best current team member for that position–in my opinion that would be Anthony Maddox (whom the interactive depth chart curiously has listed as Amobi’s backup), though I have unsubstantiated high hopes for DelJuan Robinson. Third, and perhaps most importantly it is my fondest wish that Travis would show up to Reliant one day, only to find that the locks had been changed. Then, as he looks around for a janitor or someone to let him in, he is gunned down by Central American Libyan rebels in a VW Microbus.
Where was I? Oh, yeah, lack of bodies. So, secondary and nose tackle are definitely thin as of now, and running back is arguably lacking as well. That could change if Demps is re-signed and remains exceedingly solid, or Dunta comes back quickly, or Ahman decides to stay healthy, or Travis gets sent to one of those shock boot-camp things where they send the crappy kids on Montel. But, for now, thin.
But that’s all obvious, because that’s a case of actually lacking players. If we turn our attention back to “talent” versus mere “body” depth, a case can be made that a number of other positions run the gamut of thinness from skinny to skeletal.
For one, and with apologies to Ephraim Salaam, we still don’t have a single NFL-quality left tackle on the roster unless Fluffy Spencer suddenly comes around. (The signing last offseason of Jordan Black was a perfect example of “body” depth as a goal, as no one in his right mind should have believed that a guy nicknamed “Turnstile” by fans of his previous team was going to offer much in the way of talent. The signing of the since-departed Kevin Barry was arguably the same thing–an attempt to accumulate large, non-dead humans.)
Currently, in addition to Salaam, Black, and Spencer, we have Brandon Frye who spent much of 2007 on the practice squad and of whom I wrote back in May:
The other Round 5 Brandon is, apparently, a mutant. 6′4″, 302, with a 690 lb squat and a 445 lb bench press to go along with a 4.79 40. He may be raw (actually, that’s not true… he IS raw), but he seems to have the tools to become a good offensive lineman. He finished the season at VT playing some left tackle, but I am guessing he will move to the interior of the line, perhaps displacing Fred Weary in a year or so.
Now, nearly a year later, I stand by the first part of that–that he is, indeed, a physical mutant and seems to possess solid tools from which to build. The only change I would make is to the second half of it, as his combination of speed and strength makes him a nice choice for the left tackle in an Alex Gibbs system.
But even if Frye is the LT of the future, that gives us…um…one healthy, in-shape, potentially-NFL-quality LT. THIN!!!
Moving inside to the guards, our depth chart currently shows Kasey Studdard as the backup at both left and right guard. Fred Weary is old (and injured and a free agent), Chester Pitts was less-than-stellar for much of the year, Scott Jackson is injured, and Mike Briesel and Dan Stevenson are relative unknowns. Until we have some sort of idea how Jackson will heal and what Briesel and Stevenson are capable of, the guard position offers nothing more than the “body” depth at best (and actual thinness at worst). And this problem could be exacerbated if some of the guys who seem healthy and ready to contribute prove unable to adjust to the Gibbs system.
On the other side of the ball, defensive end gives us another example of “body” depth without meaning. Currently, we have one great one (Mario Williams), one who has shown an occasional glimpse of real talent (Earl Cochran), one who is ancient and a free agent (ND Kalu), one who is grotesquely overpaid and did next to nothing this year (Anthony Weaver), and someone named Eric Powell who was just signed to a future/reserve contract. Unless Cochran turns out to be something good, we are sitting right now with one defensive end who is starter-quality and another–Weaver–who could possibly be again.
The other spot where we are sorely lacking on defense is at strongside linebacker. Danny Clark is good, but is a free agent and had momentary lapses that the coaching staff did not like. Charlie Anderson likewise had some solid moments but, overall, was uninspiring. Unless Zac Diles can move to the strongside (more on him in a bit), this position needs addressing in the offseason.
(Pauses to re-read all of the above.)
Guh…that was more than I planned to write for the first point. I think it all makes sense, though, so I am leaving it. Moving on…
2. Where we are deep. Based on the point I belabored above, you can guess that by “deep” I mean “richer than average with talent.” Under that rubric, really, it is possible to be “deep” at a position where you have but two players and not be deep at another where you have five. Which sounds confusing and counter-intuitive, but really isn’t. But, instead of further kicking that dead horse, let’s all just agree to read the following with that definition in mind, ok?
The most obvious position of depth on this team is quarterback. When you can have a serious discussion about whether or not you would trade your backup QB for a third-rounder, I think it is safe to say that you are stocked at the position. No, neither of them is going to remind you of Peyton Manning (because both of them are straight, for one thing), but they still give us solid talent behind our starting talent. For the record, I would still trade Sage in a heartbeat for anything in the fourth round or higher. But that is a different post that we and others have covered ad nauseum.
Secondly, we are stocked at middle and weakside linebacker. DeMeco is a golden god, but Diles has impressed both coaches and fans alike. (He’s also been versatile enough that Kubiak has made mention of moving Diles to one of the outside spots, which would change this equation somewhat.) What’s more, Danny Clark (assuming he’s re-signed) gives you a third option at middle linebacker.
On the weakside, as this blog and others have said, Morlon Greenwood is one of the most underrated defensive players in the league. He was consistently good to very good (with moments of great) this season. Behind him, you have Shawn Barber (assuming he comes back from injury and the team keeps him), the possibility of Zac Diles getting some time here if we find a strongside guy, and Danny Clark has experience at this position as well. This position is not so deep that it couldn’t be improved, mind you, but every person but one in line to play it brings at least some starting experience to the equation.
Moving back to the offensive side of the ball, a case can be made that we are potentially deep at Center. In addition to current starter Steve McKinney and seemingly serviceable Chris White (both injured), we recently signed two guys in Chukky Okobi and Greg Eslinger who seem to be very, very good fits for the new Gibbs regime. Thus, without even pausing to consider Mike Flanagan (who should not be on the roster as a center come September) or Drew Hodgdon (who might still be able to play guard), we have four Centers from which to find our best zone blockers and any of the four could conceivably be the guy.
Finally, I don’t think it is much of a stretch to say that we find ourselves deep at Wide Receiver. Andre Johnson, Andre Davis (because we better re-sign him), Kevin Walter, Jacoby Jones, David Anderson…that’s a solid five-man rotation. Now, as we saw, losing the guy at the front end of that list changes the dynamic greatly–Andre Davis is good, but it’s not like having a Reggie Wayne to stand in for Marvin Harrison–but going into the year with those five counts as quality depth in my book.
Now, astute readers will notice that the positions of TE and RT don’t appear on either list. The reasons why are as follows: At TE, whether we are deep or thin is going to depend on whether we resign Breuner, whether Gibbs likes Owen Daniels enough to make him the Shannon Sharpe of this offense, and whether we decide to keep Jeb Putzier (and how we choose to implement him). At RT, we have a very good starter and a specified backup, which is not really deep or thin at this point.
***
What can we glean from all this? Well, when you combine these holes with the draft history of the Kubiak-Gibbs era in Denver, I think we can assume that we will almost certainly NOT be drafting an o-lineman (even an LT) with our first pick, barring Jake Long falling to 18, but will fill up much of our second-day picks with the big fellas. There is a fair-to-good chance that we will go with defense, with the pick likely being the best-available defensive player who doesn’t play MLB or WLB. Personally, and I think I have said this before, I would rather get a CB through free agency instead of relying on another rookie alongside Fred. Also, if I had my druthers, I would prefer a nose tackle, but then this post isn’t about what I want.
There is also at least some evidence to suggest that Kubiak and Co will be willing to trade back if the offer presents itself, even trading all the way out of the first if the right package was available. Finally, I would not completely write off the idea of a running back at 18 if a Felix Jones or Jonathan Stewart was sitting there and Gibbs was convinced that was his guy.
Patron Tequila is a no-good, lying bastard
Jun 29, 2007 2007 Draft, Demarcus Faggins sucks, Dunta Robinson, Like whoa, Rebuttals, Secondary issues are primary
It’s Friday and I’m hungover. Hungover like whoa. Even the thought of writing something long and (semi-) coherent makes my head hurt a little more. So you are getting some randomness right now, with a possibility of real posting should this coffee and McDonald’s turn out to be a panacea.
- Big Blue Shoe surrenders.1 He also writes a pretty fair post about our revamped defense, though he seems to have misunderstood the gist of my Dunta Robinson breakdown. (Note: It’s not that I don’t think he’s as good as advertised; it’s that the numbers actually SHOW that he’s not as good as advertised.) Oh, well… baby steps.
- The NFL Supplemental Draft is next month. For those teams looking to pick up guys who were kicked off of teams, academically ineligible, and/or otherwise not going to play anymore NCAA pigskin, the Supplemental Draft is a godsend. Yahoo! Sports has a breakdown of some of the higher profile low profile players. The author of that piece seems to think we’ll be in the mix for Nebraska OL Chris Patrick. To which I say “blah.” I am somewhat interested, however, in UConn SS/OLB Donta Moore. Dude is tough, fast, and can tackle like a mofo (that’s a technical term). Which is a description that you generally don’t give to C.C. Brown.
- Thomas Hilton has a nice recap of pre-camp player news from around the web. There’s even some fantasy football talk. At some later point, I want to do a fantasy football breakdown of this team that goes further than the “Andre Johnson is good” chatter we usually get. I’ll give you a sneak peak, though, right now. If you are in a 50-team league that uses individual defensive players, you should try to snag Petey Faggins somewhere around pick 985.
- Finally, Pro Football Talk reports, in a very smug and condescending manner, that the Texans’ string of sell-outs might be coming to an end. Please note, though, that you have to scroll down past where he drops the soap for Sprint-Nextel.
-
Though the Houston Texans like to boast about the fact that they’ve had 50 straight sellouts in five years of existence, there’s a chance that the number might not get much higher. Or any higher.
Thanks to a head’s-up from a reader, it appears that the Texans are having trouble selling their season tickets. Currently, “less than 2,000” are available, which means that as many as 1,999 are left — despite the prior existence of a “priority wait list.”
So the inference that can be drawn is that, after a chunk of last year’s season-ticket holders passed on renewing and after the folks on the waiting list got their chance to buy tickets, there are still about $1 million worth of unsold season seats.
But should any of this be surprising to anyone? After three years of improvement, the Texans tanked in 2005, and then committed the football equivalent of passing on Michael Jordan and Magic Johnson by leaving Reggie Bush and Vince Young on the draft board in April 2006. [Author's Note: You can almost smell the exaggeration, it's so thick.] If either of those guys were playing in Houston, we suspect that every 2007 game would be already sold out.
As it stands, it could be that the only 2007 games that will be fully sold out will be those in which Bush and Young will make their visits to town.
Jerk.
1 I can’t decide if I am amused or annoyed that he tried to sound magnanimous about the whole ordeal with the “he kicked my post’s metaphorical ass, but at least I didn’t call him names” bit. (I’m paraphrasing.) Like I said to him in the comments, I called his mom names. And that’s only if you find the scent of rotting French cheese to be offensive.
