DGDB&D: a Texans blog.

Every time I hear the song “The Devil Went Down To Georgia,” two things jump out at me.  First, under the terms of the agreement, it was apparently up to the Devil to decide who won the competition.  No judges were named and no one else was mentioned in the song¹.  Now, maybe your mental version of Bud Adams’ spawn differs from mine, but I have serious doubts that ol’ Lou Cypher would be unbiased in picking the winner.  I mean, dude was in a bind (and way behind) or he never would have entered the contest in the first place.  Regardless, I really can’t see Satan saying “dang, ya got me…and, as I am a man of my word and not the embodiment of evil, I will honor the bet I made with you.”

But that brings me to the second observation.  Namely, the Devil fucking WON the competition.  That dude broke shit down² so it could forever remain broken.  Johnny, on the other hand, played some 10-second snippits from standard bluegrass classics??  Fire On The Moutain, House Of The Rising Sun, and a variation on Chicken In A Bread Pan?  Seriously?  The Devil just rocked your face off and you do some bluegrass covers?  Who are you, Bill Monroe’s retarded savant child?

ANYWAY…yeah.  On to the week one picks, bitches.  As always, I’m picking straight up rather than against the spread.

Arizona @ San Francisco.  Interesting tale, these recent Cardinals teams.  Though it’s been close to four years, it seems like they went from “this is the year they surprise people” to “man…they STILL fucking suck” almost overnight and without ever surprising anyone but the people dumb enough to think they’d surprise people.  Odd.  Besides, I’ll be double-goddamned if I am going to pick JT O’Sullivan to win his opener.  Pick: Arizona

Seattle @ Buffalo.  Hmm…I still think Buffalo can sneak into the playoffs this year, but I am beginning to forget why I thought that in the first place.  On the other hand, I am stuck with Hasselbeck as my starter in one fantasy league, so I guess I’ll just back him.  Pick: Seattle

Cincinnati @ Baltimore.  I wish regular NFL games had cool nicknames like “The Border War” and “The Red River Shootout.”  Because, if they did, I would be pushing real hard for this game to get “Bi-Annual Suckfestorama.”  Hey, didn’t you USED to be Ray Lewis?  Honestly, the only reason I can come up with for watching this game will be to see if Chad Ocho Cinco has his new last name on his jersey.  Pick: Baltimore

Dallas @ Cleveland.  Bigger pussy—Tony Romo or Brady Quinn.  On one side, you’ve got a guy who lets his girlfriend wear a pink jersey to the game and sit in the owner’s box so the camera can find her every thirty-seven seconds.  On the other, you’ve got

Hell, who am I kidding??  Brady win this one in a walk.  Er, a prance.  Pick: Dallas

Detroit @ Atlanta.  Dear Matt Ryan, We thought you’d like to ease your transition into the NFL by not having to face a defense in Week 1.  You’ll still lose, because your team is shit, but this should help a bit.  Sincerely, NFL Schedule Makers.  Pick: Detroit

Chicago @ Indianapolis.  I’ve never hidden the fact that I honestly, truly wish Peyton Manning would have both Achilles tendons cut with a rusty butter knife.  Barring that, I hope his infected knee flames up and he misses 10 games.  Barring THAT, I hope he gets SuperAIDS from Kenny.  Sadly for Bears fans, all three could happen this week and the Colts would still win.  Pick: Indianapolis

Jacksonville @ Tennessee.  Let’s be really clear about something—I think J’ville is going to slide a bit this year, but I think Tennessee is going to suck.  Pick: Jacksonville.  Bonus pick: Young has NO TDs.

Kansas City @ New England.  Kansas City’s 2008 season is going to look like Derrick Thomas drove it on an ice-covered interstate.  Pick: New England

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans.  That New Orleans D is going to struggle with potent offenses.  Tampa Bay is not a potent offense.  Conversely, that New Orleans offense is going to light some motherfuckers up.  Tampa Bay is some motherfuckers.  Pick: New Orleans

New York Jets @ Miami.  Favre + Favre+ Favre + Forcing this game down the nation’s collective throat = Loss.  Pick: Miami

St. Louis @ Philadelphia.  When I lived in St. Louis, one of my good friends was a chick who went to school in Philadelphia.  She is marrying an Eagles fan next summer.  Everyone I will know at that wedding, I will have originally met in St. Louis.  None of this has shit to do with shit.  Pick: Philadelphia

JUGGERNAUT @ Pittsburgh.  Fuck yes, baby. (Just so we are clear, I am going to continue my annoying habit of picking us to win every single week.  Thankfully, I figure this will only cost me 6 or 7 games this year.)  Pick: HOUSTON

Carolina @ San Diego.  How much would you pay to see Steve Smith and Shawne Merriman fight?  $50?  $500?  Regardless, I’m betting on the angry midget.  Not in this game, though.  Pick: San Diego

Denver @ Oakland.  Run, DMC!  Because there is no passing game at all!  RUN FOR YOUR LIFE, DUDE!  Pick: Denver

Minnesota @ Green Bay.  Dear Aaron Rodgers, You know all that shit we said up there about Matt Ryan?  Yeah, not so much for you.  Suck it, NFL Schedule Makers.  Pick: Minnesota.

¹ Other than the band of demons, but you get the point.
² With help from the aforementioned demons.

Wow, we play in a division with 3 1/2 legit teams, and there are couple of divisions that have, at most, one.  It sucks, that’s all.

AFC East:
1. New England - Easiest schedule in football.  The Cheating McCheaters really know how to game the game.  Hate.
2. Buffalo - I have no idea why second.  This division sucks ass.
3. New York Jets - Only because they’ll beat out Miami, not because Favre is good.
4. Miami Dolphins - Won’t be *that* bad, but they’ll be bad.

AFC North
1. Pittsburgh - I’m still a “D” first kind of guy.
2. Baltimore - See above.
3. Cleveland - Because Horse Balls > Ocho Cinco.
4. Cincinnati - But they will lead the league in felonies, so they’ve got that goin’ for ‘em.

AFC South
1. Indianapolis - I’ll burn my own eyes out for that, thank you.
2. Jacksonville* - I think they’ve lost too much on the defensive side and regression to the mean is a bitch on the offense.
3. Houston Texans* - I think our offense, while not elite, will be more than good enough.  Still have serious doubts about the D.
4. BE-SFs - I expect regression to the mean from their D, and flat-out regression on offense.  Still, Chris Johnson will be exciting to watch.  I wonder if he can throw?

AFC West
1. San Diego - Brings some talent to the table across the board.
2. Denver - I think Shanahan has lost some of his mojo.
3. Oakland - Somebody has to be third, and the CBs are strong.
4. Kansas City - Wow, talk about Teh Suck.

NFC East
1. Philadelphia - Even if McNabb gets hurt, I really like Kolb.
2. New York Giants* - Losing the PoopMaster hurts, but they’ve proven the ability to adjust.
3. Dallas - This team is one injury away from complete mediocrity.
4. Washington - If I had to name one “Surprise Team,” this would be the one.

NFC North
1. Minnesota - Not as good as some people think, but Tavaris will be solid enough.
2. Green Bay* - And it’ll all be Aaron Rodgers’ fault….or the shitty CBs.  I’ll go with the latter.
3. Chicago - It’s about the “D” and that they got rid of Benson.
4. Detroit - It’s Detroit!  WTF else do you expect?

NFC South
1. Tampa Bay - I dunno why.  Just a hunch.
2. New Orleans - Hard choice between them and Carolina.  Their key will be keeping Reggie Bust off the field.
3. Carolina - Actually, the difference is losing Punchout Steve Smith for two games.
4. Atlanta - Rey Maualuga?  Michael Oher?  Who will they take #1 overall?  I’ll go with Michael Crabtree.

NFC West
1. Arizona - Based on the defense and that Leinart bongs with hot underaged chicks.
2. Seattle - I have zero faith in their offense.
3. St. Louis - Marc Bulger got hurt reading this.
4. San Francisco - Can you imagine watching the 49ers and Rams play?  Twice???

AFC Championship Game:
Pittsburgh over New England

NFC Championship Game:
Philadelphia over Tampa Bay

Super Bowl:
Philadelphia over Pittsburgh

Wow, if we both picked Philadelpha, then Durga help us all.

And, before you criticize, consider that my first response will be to moon you.  Via email.  It’ll be a real prick pic.

Edit: I accidentally left the * on Seattle when I changed my mind to Green Bay.  Thanks to bigwood for announcing to the world I’m a moron.

If you’ve been paying attention, you’ve surely noticed that bfd and I have yet to do any predictions regarding the upcoming NFL season.  The reason?  Well, we are lazy.  Beyond that, however, we also wanted to wait as long as possible to see how some stuff shook out in camps and whatnot.

Before I get into my prognosticatin’, however, I thought I would take a look back at my season-long predictions from last year, both good (my weekly picks) and bad (my preseason picks).  Last things first, here were my NFL predictions for 2007:

Thursday night’s game was all well and good in that it was real football that mattered beginning to end. Football is back, yada yada yada. However, for all of us not living in Indianapolis (thankfully) or New Orleans, there is one day left until we kick off the season for real.

For fans of the Juggernaut, of course, tomorrow’s game against the Chiefs is full of storylines. Will Schaub keep making us forget about Zoolander? Is Ahman Green as much of an upgrade as we think? Are the Chiefs going to be worse than the Raiders this year? [Author's note: The answer to all of those questions is "yes."]

Now, I am on record as counting this game as one of our nine wins. I still believe that and, other than laughing about the Chiefs failures to win a playoff game since Bill Clinton’s first year in office, I have little to add.

I do think, however, that this is as good a place as any to throw out the official DGDB&D 2007 Predictions. Let’s rock. (# denotes first round bye, * denotes wild card)

AFC East
New England #
New York
Buffalo
Miami

AFC South
Indianapolis #
Jacksonville *
Houston (9-7)
Tennessee

AFC West
San Diego
Denver
Oakland
Kansas City

AFC North
Baltimore
Pittsburgh*
Cincinnati
Cleveland

NFC East
Philadelphia
Washington
Dallas
New York

NFC South
Carolina #
New Orleans*
Atlanta
Tampa Bay

NFC West
Seattle #
St. Louis*
San Francisco
Arizona

NFC North
Chicago
Green Bay
Detroit
Minnesota

AFC Championship Game
San Diego def. New England

NFC Championship Game
Seattle def. Carolina

Super Bowl
San Diego def. Seattle

Wow.  Those are–what’s the word?  BAD.  Yeah, that’s it.  Did I really have Chicago winning the North over Green Bay?  Was I high or something?  Christ.

NOW, when I was allowed to pick week-by-week, thereby incorporating what we knew about teams as the year went forward, I did much better.  I went 156-91 in the regular season and 8-3 in the playoffs.  I rocked shit.  (Let this be fair warning to the rest of you taking part in Chris’s Pick’em League, bitches.)

With all that out of the way, let’s get into the 2008 season.  Like last year, I am predicting order of finish, but not records, because I hate it when people predict overall records without checking to see if they are logistically possible based on the matchups.

Also, one last side note before I start.  Another pet peeve of mine is writers and other experts who pick the same teams to win the divisions as last season and pick nearly all the same playoff teams.  The former has never happened in the current setup and the historical rate of playoff team turnover is about 50%.  So, off the bat, I’m tabbing Jacksonville, Tennessee, San Diego, Washington, Tampa Bay, and Green Bay as the teams from last year who won’t get in this year.

AFC North
Cleveland
Pittsburgh*
Baltimore
Cincinnati

AFC East
New England
Buffalo*
New York
Miami

AFC South
Indianapolis
Houston (9-7)
Jacksonville (Yes, I still have a post forthcoming explaining this.  Damn you, stop pressuring me!)
Tennessee (6-10)

AFC West
Denver
San Diego
Kansas City
Oakland

NFC North
Minnesota
Detroit
Green Bay
Chicago

NFC East
Philadelphia
Dallas*
New York*
Washington

NFC South
New Orleans
Carolina
Tampa Bay
Atlanta (on the clock)

NFC West
Seattle
St. Louis
San Francisco
Arizona

AFC Championship Game
Indianapolis over Cleveland

NFC Championship Game
Philadelphia over Seattle

Super Bowl
Philadelphia over Indianapolis

So, there you have it.  Now, if these are anything like last year’s, they’ll be moot by week 3.

Back among the living. As noted here and elsewhere, the list of the dearly departed will be read in a solemn service on Texans TV at 3:30 CST today.  In that vein, here’s my predicted roster (based on the roster makeup of the past few seasons):

QB: Matt Schaub, Sage Rosenfels
RB: Ahman Green, Steve Slaton, Vonta Leach, Chris Taylor, Darius Walker¹
WR: Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, Andre Davis, Jacoby Jones, David Anderson
TE: Owen Daniels, Mark Bruener, Joel Dreessen
OL: Eric Winston, Kasey Studdard, Mike Brisiel, Chester Pitts, Duane Brown, Chris Myers, Chris White, Ephraim Salaam, Brandon Frye, Greg Eslinger²

DL: Mario Williams, Travis Johnson, Amobi Okoye, Anthony Weaver, Frank Okam, Earl Cochran, Tim Bulman, Deljuan Robinson, Rosevelt Colvin³, Gabe Long
LB: DeMeco Ryans, Zac Diles, Morlon Greenwood, Xavier Adibi, Kevin Bentley, Chaun Thompson⁴
CB: Fred Bennett, Jacques Reeves, Antwaun Molden, Jamar Fletcher, Petey Faggins⁵
S: Will Demps, Glenn Earl, Brandon Harrison⁶, C.C. Brown

P: Matt Turk
K: Kris Brown
LS: Brian Pittman⁷

¹I think the carrying of three TEs rather than four, plus the inherent brittleness of Ahman Green might save Darius Walker’s job.

²I would not be the least bit surprised if Rashad Butler got Eslinger’s spot.

³Could EASILY wind up being Kalu rather than Colvin, given the latter’s “play” this preseason, but I think they’ll give Rosey a chance in the regular season.

⁴I’m actually bummed about losing Ben Moffit and Kevis Coley, but I am guessing at least one gets on the PS.  Also…I…I…um…Morlon…well, you know.

⁵SHIT.

⁶Dominique Barber to PS.

⁷Seriously, Bulman and Dreessen can long snap.  Why is Bryan Pittman eating up space?

Why hast thou forsaken me? Speaking of Petey fucking Faggins, I’m beginning to suspect he has made a deal with the devil or something.  After all, how do you explain his inspired (for him) first half?

BFD offered to tutor her in fluid dynamics, but she declined.  Strange-but-true fact—Texans Cheerleader Summer is an aerospace engineer for NASA.

(Many of these links are courtesy of Eric.  I leave it to you to figure out which ones.)

Variations on a theme.  There’s comedy, there’s high comedy, there’s transcendent comedy, and then there’s a thread BE-SF fans trying to decide if Vince Young might just not be quite as good as they think.  My favorite line from the thread: “Anybody that has the chance to have Young close at practices…please tell him that is time to wake up from the Lhorns dreamy land goal got…and get this working as soon as possible… ” I’m not totally sure what that means, but I’m pretty sure it’s not good.

Yikes.  Keith Weiland with a grim reminder of our failings in signing free agents.  There’s not much to say other than “GUH.”

David Anderson.  ‘Nuff said.

This is good news. Remember back right after Manning had the bursa sack removed when his supporters (douchebags, the lot of ‘em) were laughing about the rest of us speculating that Manning might miss regular season games?  “Morons!  Scaredy bitches!  Of course he will be back!  He’ll be ready to kick your ass Week 1!”  Well, it seems like things aren’t quite so certain at this point.  He “hopes” to be ready.  They think he’s on schedule.  There is talk that he might practice next week…or maybe not…who knows?  My own guess: He misses week 1, then struggles to shake some rust off in weeks 2-4.  And then we beat the Colts.  There, I said it.

Making the leap? Paul Kuharsky has five questions with Amobi Okoye.  In them we learn that Amobi wants to make a leap similar to the one Mario made last year.  Also, Amobi and LeBron are friends and “obviously, we talked like people of the same age talk.”  Fo’ realz. (h/t Eric)

Consistent.  How does Mike Florio manage to say something retarded every time he writes about the Texans?  You’d think that once he’d get through a whole article without looking like a fool.  Not this time, though.

Guh.  Titans fan with a preview of the Texans.  Don’t you love how someone can spend the majority of the analysis talking about a large amount of talent on both sides of the ball, then conclude with a dismissive “I see another last place finish” for the Texans?  That’s fun.

Finally.  Programming notes:  I hope to set up the Fantasy Football league this weekend and have the information up come Sunday or Monday.  I’ll recap the people who’ve said yes when I post the info.  Also, at some point this weekend, I hope to have a fairly detailed post about why the Jags are going to stumble this year.

No, really.  Time to fisk.

The Pittsburgh Steelers‘ personnel officials assembled on the practice field in Latrobe, Pa., Sunday to watch workouts for Byron Leftwich and Daunte Culpepper, two talented quarterbacks who went through the offseason looking for work instead of preparing for the season.

Replacing Chaz Batch with Leftwich or Culpepper?  Was Kordell Stewart unavailable?  How about Spergon Wynn?  Could no one reach Shaun King?

They were amazed. “What are these guys doing on the street?” scouts muttered to themselves.

What were they doing on the street?  Hanging out with other people who are not viable NFL QBs, I guess.  Oh, and in Leftwich’s case, eating.  A lot.

Both quarterbacks are in great shape. They are big and physical with powerful arms.

And all the mobility of a tectonic plate.

Both have been winners in this league.

Jacksonville was 24-20 in games started by Leftwich.  His best record as a starter was 8-3 in 2005.  Winner winner, give this man his chicken dinner.

Feeling as though they had hit the lottery for a quick fix while Charlie Batch heals from a broken collarbone, the Steelers signed Leftwich for the minimum salary.

Their version of the lottery sounds a lot like Shirley Jackson’s.  Can I volunteer to throw the first rock?

The NFL chews up quarterbacks like patrons at a football game devour hot dogs. Alex Smith, the top pick in the 2005 draft, is struggling in San Francisco and could be beaten out by journeyman J.T. O’Sullivan. Matt Leinart is the starter in Arizona, but one stumble could bring Kurt Warner into a starting role again. Rex Grossman isn’t exactly wowing them in the great Chicago Bears quarterback debate.

Yes, it is the NFL’s fault the the QBs you just mentioned are shitty.  That makes sense.  All failed QBs fail not because of their own lack of talent, but, rather, from the evil NFL machine eating them like a hotdog.

With Peyton Manning sidelined with a knee infection and Tom Brady nursing an ankle injury, you wonder, “Where are the next great quarterbacks coming from?”

Hmm…let’s see.  My guesses for places you could look for the next great QB would be: 1. Cincinnati 2. New York (Giants) 3. New Orleans 4. Denver 5. Dallas 6. Washington 7. Houston 8. Jacksonville 9. Cleveland and 10. Anywhere other than Nashville or Kansas City.

On a recent trip to Nashville, Tenn., to see Titans quarterback Vince Young, I saw hope for the present and the future.

Well fuck me runnin’.

Young might not be a fantasy football delight because he’s not a numbers guy, but in time, the numbers might come.

“he’s not a numbers guy” = “he fucking blows as a QB under any traditional metric you might care to use, save for ‘being ambiguously gay at da club,’ where he is among the league leaders.”

In the meantime, Young, under the instruction of offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger, is taking the next step in developing into an elite NFL quarterback.

Step 1: Run just enough as a rookie that people overlook your mediocre passing.
Step 2: Regress in your second year, cease to run, and ride a great defense to the playoffs.
Step 3: Throw your offensive coordinator under the bus.
Step 4: ???
Step 5: Profit?

Heimerdinger watched all of Young’s game tapes and developed a plan for taking his immense talents to the next level.

That plan was relayed to Vince using simple, crayon drawings:

While Young is still a work in progress, the Titans are fortunate to have a quarterback who can be a winner on the field while he learns.

Obligatory reminder: VY’s career record: 17-11 (0-1 playoffs).  Rex Grossman, WHO CLAYTON JUST SAID SUCKED ABOUT FOUR PARAGRAPHS AGO: 19-11 (2-2 playoffs).

“Eventually, I think he’ll be pretty darn good,” Heimerdinger said. “This guy’s physical presence is amazing. He’s 6-4 or 6-5. I didn’t think I would see anybody bigger than Steve McNair and John Elway, two guys I worked with.”

So, there you have it.  Vince will be good because he is tall.  Other tall QBs who came in with a lot of hype: Todd Marinovich (6-4) and Ryan Leaf (6-5).  (Also, Heimerdinger didn’t think he’d ever see someone bigger than McNair (6-2) or Elway (6-3)?  Really?  Chad Pennington, whom he worked with, was as big or bigger than both of those guys.)

Young has Michael Vick-type running ability, but his height gives him a downfield edge when he stays in the pocket to pass.

Which would matter if he ever stayed in the pocket to pass.  And if he could read defenses.

In two seasons, he has gone through some interesting configurations. Coming out of Texas, he was a running quarterback who could throw.

And who could probably spell his name if you spotted him the “V-I-N-C.”

He went 8-5 as a rookie starter in 2006 and was billed as the NFL’s next star. He was on the cover of the Madden game. He threw for 12 touchdowns and ran for seven. He was the offensive rookie of the year and earned a trip to the Pro Bowl.

He also threw 13 INTs, which John leaves out because that would be the verbal equivalent of using teeth in this written blowjob.

Not only did he beat the Madden jinx by starting 15 games last season, Young, through his leadership, took the Titans on a surprise ride to the playoffs.

Yup.  That’s exactly what happened.  The playoffs had nothing to do with Tennessee having the best defense in the league.  It was Young’s “leadership” that took them to playoffs.  That leadership included standing away from all the other players, pouting like a little ho when he was not the starter in the game at Houston.  But that kind of leadership is so powerful, it can overcome a 9 TD, 17 INT, year.  That leadership is not fazed by a fall off in yards per attempt, yards per completion, or yards per carry.  Amazing.  He’s like General fucking Patton out there.

Despite that success, things were holding him back.

Based on what we’ve seen and heard from him, I’m betting those “things” were Norm Chow and the itchy, restrictive nature of shirts.

He played a good portion of the season with an agonizing quad injury that handcuffed him.

Little-known fact: An injured quad makes it so that you can’t see the opposing teams’ defensive backs, thus forcing you to throw into coverage a LOT.

Worse, he struggled in his second season, trying to be more of a pocket passer than a multidimensional quarterback.

Sooo…the “next great QB” struggled when trying to be a QB?  Weird.

“My quad, man, it was bad,” Young said. “Every week you get it better, then you go out and play and hurt it again. The quad would get weak. I was taking those pills for the pain. I was running around trying to make plays when it’s not there. The quad is definitely back where it needs to be although I still have a little hole in there.”

Brett Favre thinks you are a total fucking pussy if you can’t plan through some pain while hopped up on Vicodin.  Also, just fyi, the fact that the pain pills make it not hurt during the week does not mean it has gotten “better.”  Further, if it was that bad, why the fuck didn’t you take a few weeks off and rest/rehab it, especially since the team did not miss a beat with Vodka Collins at the wheel.  (Because, you know, that whole “we’re riding our defense” thing)

Heimerdinger returns to the Titans at the right time for Young. Having worked with McNair and Elway, Heimerdinger knows how to craft a plan for a talented quarterback.

OK, first of all, the next person to mention Heimerdinger and Elway in the same sentence gets smacked in the head.  Mike Heimerdinger was the WIDE RECEIVERS COACH for the Broncos from 1995 to 1999.  He had literally DICK to do with developing John Elway.  Yet that is exactly what Clayton is insinuating.

Secondly, though, Heimerdinger also worked with Brooks Bollinger and Chad Pennington when they were in their developmental stages as QBs and neither of them became much of anything.  (That’s called an “understatment.”)  So, it looks like ‘Dinger does well when he has a talented QB (McNair) and not well at all when he doesn’t.  Which makes him no different from anyone else, really.  Besides, you can argue pretty convincingly that it is EASIER to devlop a talented QB, so McNair’s development under Heimer (which, incidentally, came after McNair had been starting in the league for three years, which is the point where many QBs make a large leap in terms of production) is not some merit badge for the OC.

FINALLY, all of this presupposes that Vince is a “talented” QB in the same manner that Elway and McNair were, which has yet to be proven.

Norm Chow, the Titans’ offensive coordinator the past two seasons, helped in Young’s early development but a different set of eyes was needed.

The first thing Heimerdinger did was work extensively on defense recognition.

Not a bad plan.

Young was lax in making pre-snap reads in his first two seasons.

Yes, yes he was.  And Mike Vick was “lax” in taking proper care of his pets, Charlie Casserly was “lax” in properly evaluating free agents and trade proposals, and John Clayton is “lax” on supporting his arguments with anything resembling proof.

For Young, it was back to school and he had plenty of tutors.

The Titans signed veteran tight end and former Atlanta Falcon Alge Crumpler, who’s known as much for his recognition of defenses as he is for his pass-catching ability.

So, they had to bring in someone to yell out the correct answer to Vince?  “R-o-C-k!” “Ohhhh, the ‘c’ is silent!” Sounds like the teaching of Vince was going really well.

Crumpler often bailed out Vick during Vick’s mad scrambles by putting his big body in a spot where the quarterback could see it.

I fail to see how Mike Vick being consistently bailed out by a TE will make Vince a better QB.  I mean, when the guy is having to change his route on the fly and go get the ball from the QB, it doesn’t really sound to me like the QB is “developing” as a QB.  For example, imagine I am horribly shitty at my job (real stretch, I know).  Then, one day, my boss hires a co-worker who, for whatever reason, is an incredibly hardworker and he does all his work and all my work, but I still the get the praise and the bonuses.  Have I “developed” as an employee?  No.  Of course not.

“I see the maturation of Vince,” Crumpler said. “I just want to make sure he doesn’t lose his confidence. Can he weather the storm of being the third pick in the draft and can I be one of those guys who help to get him there? Eli Manning took all the shots in his first few years and he weathered the storm. It’s a great story. I would hope the same thing can happen to Vince.”

And Ryan Leaf took all the shots but didn’t weather the storm.  I would hope the same thing can happen to Vince.

Vick’s dogfighting trial and later imprisonment were the story in 2007, as much a part of the daily headlines as Brett Favre’s divorce from the Packers this offseason. That experience adds perspective to Crumpler’s move from Atlanta to Nashville to help Young.

Huh?

Vick’s demise and Crumpler’s season of noncommunication with Bobby Petrino were a personal hell for the Pro Bowl tight end and his Falcons teammates. Being with Young is heaven to Crumpler because he can help.

Ah, ok.  Because Crumpler lost his starting QB to federal prison, that makes it much better for him in Nashville.  Fine.  Whatever.  Glad he’s happy.  Quick—name all the QBs who have gone from below average to great due to the signing of a veteran TE!

“Look at it, Vince threw nine touchdown passes and 18 interceptions last year,” Crumpler said.

Close, Alge.  Though it’s funny that you just made his numbers even worse than they really were.

“He had the Pacman Jones distraction.

Everyone who thinks Vince struggled to throw the ball because Pacman was in trouble with the law and suspended by Herr Goodell, please raise your hand.

He had an injury.

Fair enough.  Though, again, if it was so bad that he was hurting the team by playing, then he should have been benched or placed on IR.  If it wasn’t bad enough to affect his play, then it shouldn’t be an excuse for his play.  But, still, I’ll grant the injury as a viable thing that might have distracted a young QB.

Yet he wins 10 games and goes to the playoffs in the AFC South, a tough division.

Actually, he “won” 9 games, at least according to how such things are recorded.  In reality, a much better argument can be made that the team won many of those games despite Vince’s play:
Week 1: 11-18, 78 yds, 1 INT, 1 rushing TD, 1 fumble.  Team wins.
Week 5: 20-33, 157 yds, 3 INT.  Team wins.
Week 8: 6-14, 42 yds, 1 fumble.  Team wins.
Week 9: 14-23, 110 yds, 2 INT, 1 rushing TD. Team wins.
Week 16: 12-22, 166 yds, 1 INT, 3 fumbles. Team wins.
Week 17: 14-18, 157 yds. Team wins.

We have a quarterback. His game management just has to get a little bit better. He’s a difference-maker.”

He’s a difference-maker as a QB like ebola is a difference-maker as a weight-loss tool.

In his first practice this summer against non-Titans, Young completed 22 of 26 passes against the Rams last week in a scrimmage.

Two questions: 1. What were the other numbers, John?  2. You do realize that scrimmage (not even a preseason game!) is rather meaningless, right?

Despite the struggles with confidence and the quad injury last season, Young improved from a 51.5 to a 62.3 percent passer.

And his TD % went down, his INT % went up, and his number of passes over 20 yards went down.  Besides, David Carr was a 68% passer in 2006 with a similar YPC and a better INT %.  I don’t see anyone calling him the next great QB.

In his third season, he’s starting to figure out who he is as a quarterback.

Mediocre and overrated.

“I’m going to try to be rookie year Vince Young that everybody was talking about,” Young said. “I’m going to go out, win games and try to go further in the playoffs.”

Rookie Year Vince: 51.5% completion, 12 TDs/13 INTs, 12 fumbles, 146.6 passing YPG, 8-5 as a starter…way to set those goals high, Vincent.

His improvements are noticeable.

IN TRAINING CAMP.  NOT IN A REAL GAME.  PLEASE REMOVE YOUR PBS-LOGO-LOOKING HEAD FROM HIS CROTCH.

Thanks to his offseason of studying pre-snap reads, Young is comfortable behind center. Heimerdinger has worked him in drills to improve his footwork.

File this under “Things They Hope You Have A Basic Grasp On When You Enter The League.”

“Different drills improved my base on five- and seven-step drops,” Young said. “Now, I’m keeping my feet underneath me and I’m sliding up and moving in the pocket. I’m not just standing in one place and bouncing. Having my feet underneath me, I’m throwing more accurately. You watch Tom Brady. He brings his whole body with him when he moves in the pocket. Sometimes, I would use my arm more and not bring my whole body with me.”

You know who else was fundamentally flawed as a thrower when he entered the league?  David Carr.  All kidding aside, though, did you really just mention Tom Brady in a paragraph about your own development?  That feels wrong on a number of levels.

Heimerdinger showed Young tape of how he would stand eight yards behind the line of scrimmage, bouncing with his feet and looking downfield.

“Bouncing with his feet,” huh, John?  What the fuck else would he be bouncing on?  That’s quality sportswriting.  I suddenly have this feeling that you are going to work some ridiculous pun into this article.

If Young had to run, he was so far behind the line of scrimmage, it would be hard to make a gain.

Yet people talked about how he was a much better runner than a passer.  Odd.

From reads to foot placement to depth in the pocket, Young is starting to turn old school. He’s getting better.

Translation: Now that he is learning some of the most basic tenets of quarterbacking at any level, Young is starting to at least resemble a real QB.  (As for the “he’s getting better,” again, can we PLEASE wait until he does something in a real game before we start throwing this shit around?)

Thanks to Young’s development, remember the Titans when picking playoff contenders.

Welcome to Punsville, population: you.  Admit it, you ugly fuck—you wrote this whole goddamned article so you could use that shitty quip, didn’t you?

Day 1 of minicamp is in the books. Which means that day one of the Alex Gibbs era, the return of Barbaro, the likely immolation of Jacques Reeves, and a whole host of other stuff. Mmm…tastes like chicken, err, football.

Anyway, most of the quotes coming out after today’s workouts were what you’d expect. The rookies were wide-eyed and thrilled to be there; the team looks good, but has to shake off some rust; everyone’s goal for minicamp is just to improve and get comfortable with the new pieces and plans; blah blah blah.

One thing jumped out, however–that BFD’s fear seems likely to come to fruition. At least if take Kubes at his word.

(on how T Duane Brown looked) “Well, I’ll have to go back and see but, you know, we’ve got to see how far we can bring this kid in the next month and so we put him right in there with the first group today. And I know it was very tough on Ephraim (Salaam), and y’all know I have a great deal of respect for Ephraim and I can understand why it was tough, but as I explained to him, I’ve got to see how far I can bring this young man. But I know Ephraim’s going to do his job and I’m expecting good things from him, but we felt like we had to put this kid to work right away.

(on if T Duane Brown is first on the depth chart) “Yes, he’ll be working with the first group, and that’s the only way we’re going to find out if this kid’s going to get to where we want him to go and how quick he can get there. You draft these kids in the first round to come in and play and that’s nothing against Ephraim (Salaam), as I said, and we’ve had this conversation. But I understand the difficulty in that, but we as coaches feel like we have to put this kid to work right away.”

Hmm…what to make of this? I’d say (a) Gibbs wants his guy to play and he wants it NOW, (b) Kubiak realizes that the better half of Black Salaami isn’t all that good, and (c) Duane Brown really is the archetype ZBS LT that we need. Plus, there is probably a little (d) “tell the fanbase the kid is a bona fide #1 just to keep the natives from becoming restless” in there as well. Lord knows no one wants restless Houstonians running around.

At this point, I am inclined to believe that Brown will be the opening day starter at LT. Now, I understand the fears of him being eaten alive by the various monster RDEs in the AFC South, but there are two things that make me think he’ll be okay if he is the starter from dia una (takes large swig of the Kool-Aid):

First, I am just telling myself (over and over and over) that, Gibbs’ pet or not, he will not be the starter until he can really be the starter. By which I mean, trial-by-fire only goes so far, especially when you are talking about the guy who is protecting the blindside of your franchise QB’s surgically repaired shoulder. So he is only going to get this LT gig if he can really do it. Will he struggle against KVB, et al? Possibly. But the question is not can he stop KVB on every single down; the question is can he stop KVB (or whomever) more consistently than Salaam can? If the answer is yes, then by all means, throw him in there and let him show me that I was wrong when I broke the TV remote after his selection.

Second, though, I am taking some comfort in this little snippet from BRB:

In his first game at right tackle he faced none other than Mario Williams. At his post-draft press conference, Duane was asked to comment about his encounter with Williams.

“I remember that night like it was yesterday. I was two weeks into the position; it was the opener and a night game at NC State. (Mario Williams) is a very intimidating figure. I held my own that night and it was the beginning of my transition. Being able to go against him in practice, he is one of the best defensive ends in the league. I think practicing against him will be great for me and will help me.”

He started at right tackle for two full seasons before moving over to left tackle in his senior year. In those three years, Brown racked up 42 consecutive starts.

In his senior season, Brown boasted an outstanding 89% blocking consistency average. By comparison, the overall first pick in the 2008 NFL draft, Jake Long, had an 88% blocking consistency rating in his final year at Michigan.

As we all remember, Mario was a bad motor scooter in college. If Brown really did hold his own against Super Mario in his first ever game as a tackle, then he has some serious natural-born talent hidden away in there. And, for all the effort he gave us last year, that is something that Ephraim Salaam just doesn’t really possess.

Of course, if I am wrong to optimistic now (and, conversely, right to have been pissed on Draft Day), I reserve the right to give him a horrible nickname and point out again and again that we already had a ZBS LT on the roster in Eric Winston. I’m a fickle mofo like that.

About two weeks ago, grungedave emailed me, asking:

Is this the most “low-key” build-up the NFL Draft in more than a decade?

After I thought about it for a minute, I had to admit he was right. I honestly can’t remember so little hype and talk surrounding the Texans’ upcoming picks. But, you know what? I think this is a good sign.

Here’s what I mean: The reason that we are not hanging on every mock draft and obsessing over this year like past drafts is because we are low enough in the draft that we can only speculate as to who might be there–we have no guarantees of anyone’s availability. Even more importantly, though, we don’t have any one hole that is so glaring that we HAVE to draft to fill it. Hell, if last year’s “8-8 despite having more injuries than the 4077th” showed anything, it’s that this team has a good bit of talent all over the place, meaning that this draft (and future drafts) will be used to tweak and improve rather than to overhaul.

In that vein, I agree with what BFD said–acting like this first pick is make-or-break for this team is ridiculous. If history has shown us anything, it is that NO first round pick is really make-or-break; some have a bigger impact than others, but all are just 1/53rd of the team. Hell, we survived Zoolander, didn’t we?

Speaking of BFD’s last post, in the comments thereto, Stephanie opines the following:

Actually, I don’t put happy faces on picks. However, I do think that most draft addict fans are total morons about the draft. Everybody thinks that if Their Guy doesn’t get picked, and the team drafts The Guy They Really Didn’t Want, then the world will come to the end and they have to drop a bunch of F bombs and the like.
-
And the truth is even teams with all the information in the world, with coach’s tape and interviewing these guys, etc., teams often get it wrong. So I just figure if the teams can’t get it right with the best information out there, then how are draft addict fans any more likely to get it right when they are mostly depending on combine stats and reading second or third hand or totally madeup information about the players on the interwebs.

On some level, I agree with this. After all, I can’t say for sure whether Phillip Merling or Calais Campbell will be the better pro. I can’t tell you whether Leodis McKelvin is really going to be the best corner in this draft or whether Aqib Talib is a great fit for our system. And I sure as shit can’t say with 100% certainty that Jonathan Stewart is not a better fit for our new ZB system than Felix Jones. All I can do in any of these cases is guess.

THAT SAID, there is a guess and there is an informed guess. The former, I think we all agree, is useless. The latter, however, has some merit and provides a somewhat rational basis for arguing about who we should or shouldn’t take.

As to Steph’s larger point, that teams often whiff on the pick, so who are we to argue with them in the first place if they can’t get it right with all the available info, I think there is one glaring problem with that theory. Namely, it assumes that teams are always making rational decisions based on independent evaluations of their team and the players in the draft.

That would be great if it were true, but I have my doubts. Case in point: Last year, Miami, despite needing a QB as well as help in any number of other spots, inexplicably took Ted Ginn, Jr., at 9, with Brady Quinn, Amobi Okoye, Patrick Willis, and Michael Griffin (among others) still available. Even at the moment they made the pick, the collective response from everyone else was “What the fuck?” The only explanation I can come up with is the Dolphins management bought into the hype surrounding Ginn’s speed and thought they needed him. Had they taken an honest look at their team, however, he would not even have been on their radar at 9.

This is not really an isolated incidence, either. Every year, some team buys into a 40-time or a ESPN fluff piece and takes a guy that doesn’t fit their system or that plays a position they don’t really need to fill when there are other players universally-accepted as “better” still available. Note, I am not saying that fans aren’t just as likely to buy into something and get a semi for players that aren’t really that good. We are all fallible when it comes to this process. Still, I don’t think it is “dumb” to boo your team and bitch about a pick if, for example, the Texans took Brian Brohm at 18.

So, as I said above, I can’t tell you whether Merling or Campbell will be the better pro, but I can point out that–if they are both on the board at 18–all of the Combine numbers point to Merling as being a better player, but that his sports hernia surgery in the offseason should at least make you consider Campbell’s freakish build and possibly overlook his poor combine before you roll the dice. On the other hand, I can mention that Merling has the ability to slide inside and play under tackle if you want him, which Campbell cannot. Likewise, I can’t tell you whether McKelvin is the best corner in the draft, but I can tell you that I would prefer not to take a 5-10/190 CB if Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is available because we play against some big, physical receivers when we play Jacksonville and I think he’d be abused. (And I can point out that Talib has some drug issues (multiple marijuana test failures) and that his hip work is sub-par at best.)

But even these comparison in a vacuum don’t present the whole story, obviously. Determining whether a draft pick was “right” or “wrong” or “absolutely shitty” requires forming a set of assumptions and working rules about your team and your draft. Differences in opinions here are what cause me to want Balmer/R-Cromartie/Merlin, Lee to want Stewart, Dave and BFD to want a corner, Mark to want an OT, Stephanie to want the player most likely to rescue homeless animals, Chris to want…I actually have no idea who Chris wants, and Tim to want the best available at a number of positions. So, without further ado, here are the assumptions I am working under (primarily with respect to the first round). Feel free to correct me and/or realize my brilliance and change your own opinions accordingly.

1. 1. Barring the shocking drop of DRC to 18, I do not want a corner in the first round. We just blew our wad throwing cash after Jacques Reeves. I realize that the rookie money comes from a different pool than the money used to pay Frenchy, but I am of the opinion that drafting someone to fill the exact same hole you just spent your biggest free agent dollars on is the equivalent of pawning your car to play blackjack and then taking out a second mortgage to try and win back the car money. I assume Ray Rhodes saw something he liked in Reeves and, thus, persuaded the powers that be to sign him. If that’s the case and if we are going to blitz more often like we did in the second half of the season last year, it could very well be that Reeves is a good corner for us. I’m willing to take that chance for a year and use our first-rounder elsewhere.
2. **
3. 2. My only exception to the assumption in #1 is DRC. That is because I don’t think you get too many chances as a franchise to draft that kind of physical freak to play defensive back. His cousin is an absolute game changer (see, e.g., the game we played against them) and I am willing to overlook the “good money after bad” theory if you can get someone who can single-handedly change games in the secondary.
4. **
5. 3. Going along with #1, part of what could make Reeves a viable (or better) corner for us is putting him in a position where he’s not trying to cover Reggie Wayne for 5 seconds. The easiest way to do this is to improve the defensive line so that the front four can get better pressure and not have to rely on the SLB as a fifth rusher all the time. Knowing that, the question becomes whether you’d prefer a new DE opposite Mario knowing that Travis Johnson will likely be your nose tackle or whether you’d take a Kentwan Balmer and see if Anthony Weaver bounces back and/or if Earl Cochran continues to show the nose for the ball that he had near the end of last year.
6. **
7. 4. Building off of #3, do you take a Philip Merling at 18 because of his versatility, knowing that you could then run a number of different d-line formations out there based on whether he was at DE or UT? I think you have to consider this approach if you are not planning on getting both a DE and a DT in this draft.
8. **
9. 5. On the offensive side of the ball, many pundits (and a number of blogger/blog commenters) have us taking a LT first. What those people don’t seem to be giving any weight to is the fact that we just brought in the GURU of Zone Blocking–a man who has decades of turning cast-off linemen into integral cogs in the system–as well as a number of guys who would seem to fit his system. And we have a LT (Barbaro) who has never really gotten a chance to play that is due to return (though he is probably not a good fit for the new system). So why not give Gibbs and the current pieces (both returning and free agent) a year so we see just what we do have and what we need to address? It is entirely conceivable that we have all the pieces we need currently on the roster.
10. **
11. 6. Ditto that with running back. We have our albatross from last year (Batman) returning along with Kubiak’s mancrush (Darius Walker) and our newest addition (Chris Brown). Why not wait a year to see if (a) Green has a decent year left in him or (b) one of the other two guys can thrive in a ZBS? If you MUST draft a RB, at least wait until the third or fourth–why draft one when you don’t know exactly how our system is going to shake out?

So, yeah. Those are the assumption I am working under. What say the rest of you?

—

Totally unrelated, but I need some advice. Can someone recommend a good bourbon/whisky/whiskey for someone who generally avoids brown liquors like a toothy blowjob?

I don’t mean to alarm anyone, but…

THE 2008 SCHEDULE IS BEING RELEASED TODAY AT 1PM!!!!!

Get your calendars and PDAs ready; it’s time to start planning your live football watching for 2008.

We’ve known for quite some time (relatively speaking) that the 2008 opponents shake out as follows:

AT RELIANT
Indianapolis
Jacksonville
Tennessee
Baltimore
Cincinnati
Chicago
Detroit
Miami

AWAY FROM RELIANT
Indianapolis
Jacksonville
Tennessee
Cleveland
Pittsburgh
Green Bay
Minnesota
Oakland

All that remains today is to tell us the order. So, as we count down the hours, I have a few predictions for you.

1. 1. We get a Monday night game, most likely one of our games against the Baby-Eating Sisterfuckers.
2. 2. We get a Thursday night game, most likely against Green Bay or Pittsburgh.
3. 3. Our Green Bay game will be mid-October at the very earliest. Which is not really a good thing for a domed team from a hot state.
4. 4. The Bengals WRs will make Petey Faggins look like BFD’s Real Doll–worn out from hours of torture and pounding.
5. 5. Our first home game will be against Da Bears.

(h/t to reader Kevin for reminding me of this date…I was off by a week in my head)

UPDATE 1: Monday, December 1. Jacksonville @ JUGGERNAUT. Ben gets one point for being dead-on with his date. I am giving myself half a point for predicting a Monday night game for us against a division foe.

UPDATE 2: Here it is.

• Week 1 @ Steelers
• Week 2 v. Ravens
• Week 3 @ Baby-Eating Sisterfuckers
• Week 4 @ Jaguars
• Week 5 v. Colts
• Week 6 v. Dolphins
• Week 7 v. Lions
• Week 8 BYE
• Week 9 @ Vikings
• Week 10 v. Bengals
• Week 11 @ Colts
• Week 12 @ Browns
• Week 13 v. Jaguars (Mon. Night)
• Week 14 @ Packers
• Week 15 v. Baby-Eating Sisterfuckers
• Week 16 @ Raiders
• Week 17 v. Bears

Initial thoughts…that December game in Lambeau does not sound fun from a “trying to win the game” standpoint…Weeks 3-5 will go a LONG way toward showing us how we stack up against the division…look for us to go 3-0 from Weeks 6-9.

Bear with me as this little ride might be a bit bumpy (translation: I’m a senile old coot, just happy to have my apple mush at the end of the day).

So, we know that our heroic Texans are willing to trade Rosie Rosenfels, and we know that we’re really, oh just super interested in re-signing Craig Nall to be Teh Schaub’s backup. We know that a certain team up north is willing to cough up a third round pick for Rosenfels. And we know (jeez, repetitive much?) there are reports the Texans are trying to trade back and flip 1st round picks with the Steelers and pick up a 3rd round pick for the effort (follow the link all the way down just above the comments).

What else do we know? Well, it looks like CB Fabian Washington is on the block. I think it’s fair to say that he has underperformed his expectations. While at Cornhusker U., I thought he would be a star at the next level. However, injuries and inconsistencies - and the occasional wife beating - have insured that his stay in Oakland Los Angeles Oakland Whatever will be short. Better yet, his contract is good for two more years, and it’s about as cheap as can be imagined for a player of his caliber.

With DeAngelo Hall on the cusp of entering Raider-land - a trade almost sure to not end well - the Raiders will have a complete log-jam at CB. But, because the Raiders will have to spend their 2nd and 6th round picks on that special head-case, they’ll be terribly short of picks come draft day. You don’t exactly have to be Travis Johnson to see where I am going with this.

Washington will be cheap to acquire due to the aforementioned injuries, inconsistencies, and his off-field transgressions. Plus, Washington isn’t the perfect player by any means: he’s weak in run support, for example. The Raiders aren’t exactly well-known for doing anything well these days, and with Washington only 25 this season, he has plenty of time to turn things around. Oh, and did I mention that he ran a 4.28 40?

This has “match made in heaven” written all over it. Trade the lowest 3rd round pick (probably the Steelers pick if that deal goes through) for Fabian Washington. Then, give me one part Fabian Washington and one part Ray Rhodes, and we might have a Chris McAllister caliber player at CB. Now, bugger off cuz Matlock is on, and I need to adjust the rabbit ears.

PS: Am I the only person who just really doesn’t like The Mountain Goats? I’m intrigued by “The Big Sleep,” so I got that one with my emusic subscription. Also got Levon Helm and the RCO All Stars, Flogging Molly, and Tinariwen tonight. IOW, my usual genre-cluster-fuck of monthly downloads. Weeeeee!!!!

Edit: Corey Smith re-upped with the Lions, so he’s out. I see this as: 1. another straw we go DE in the 1st round (though not a big, back-breaking straw), and 2. why we brought Chaun Thompson aboard to play the speed rusher role off the end. Yeah, he’s a LB, and he’ll compete for the SAM position with LVJ Bentley and Zach Diles, but Chaun does have the size (close enough) and speed to play that role if necessary. Total speculation, though.

As I write this, I have Elmore James singing “The Sky is Crying” in the back of my head, and I think I know why.

As reported in Nashville’s City Paper (ironically, an old client of mine from many years ago), Pacman Jones “has been given permission by the Tennessee Titans to pursue a trade.”

Now, let’s see here.  Texans have a huge need for help at CB?  Check.  Houston has serious zoning issues?   Check.  The Crystal Pistol?  Check.  Houston has the highest strip joints/capita in the nation?  Check and check.*

Can you say match made in heaven?

Seriously, though, and tip your waitress, I have no problem giving up a 5th round pick or so and taking a chance on Pacman.  Fact is, he’s still only 25, and I really don’t have a problem with taking chances on people who have made mistakes in the past, especially when considering he’ll be relatively cheap to acquire.  The Texans’ locker room seems to have strong character people, and something might click for Pacman.  I mean, who among us wasn’t arrested six times in their 20s?  Sheesh.

Sometimes, the gamble pays off, and this one could be huge.  Just say yes to Pacman.  What do y’all think?

Anyway, how can I possibly thank the person who brought the phrase “make it rain” into my every day vocabulary enough?   You simply can’t pay back that kind of reward.

* Yeah, I made that shit up, though I wouldn’t doubt it.

Thanks to Eric and James and pushmback, I feel inspired to talk about the 2008 Texans and why we will kick ass. Plus, maybe it’ll stave off SOLIS from stealing my cat for a couple of days. (So young and so angry)

Look, it takes real stupidity to turn me off as a fan. The 2007 -> 2008 Astros are a perfect example of pissing me off. Poor farm management, stupid trades, worse signings, and if anybody is surprised by the team’s idiotic moves, you should be forced to drink Coors Light the rest of your pathetic life.

In other words, I am normally quite the optimist <- insert gleaming smile here

So, if I seem a little too happy happy about our Texans, forgive me. And bite me. So here goes…

Defense: It all starts here, obviously. I’m going to listen to my (formidable) gut instinct and guess that we draft either a DE or DT with this pick. No, I have no rational reason to believe this, but it’s still my guess. Travis Johnson is one dumb MF - that much is assumed - but he was all over the field last year. If he can control that, I fully believe he will be a major asset. Seriously, the dude’s motor was on, and it was great to watch. With Kalu and Weaver and Maddox….and our pick…I think our defensive line will be well-above average. I can’t ever imagine rushing Jamal Williams on a stunt and being successful, but we can mix and match and keep guys fresh all along the line. That, dear peeps, is quite an advantage.

At LB, we all know it begins and ends with our namesake, DeMeco. Ankle sprains have a tendency to linger, and an off-season should have him at 100% for summer drills. And not only is he one of the most physically tenacious LBs in the league, but he’s got some serious football smarts, to boot. At WLB, we have Morlon Greenwood. Personally, I think 2007 was the first step in his maturation as one of the best in the league. He’s one of the faster LBs, and when DeMeco was hurt, he stepped up. At SAM, both Danny Clark and Charlie Anderson had their moments. [Ed. note: And now they can have moments elsewhere.]

If we have a weak spot, it’s in the defensive backfield. We all know that. It’s no secret. Even here in February, Petey just gave up a first on 3rd and 19. And, I’ve said more than once, I am worried about Dunta being able to return as a CB.

This is a major variable for the Texans. If we don’t sign a CB free agent, I think we’ll be weak here. If we do, it could quickly turn into a cascaded strength. Imagine three of four of our DBs in November being Dunta, Fred “Nickname Sorely Needed” Bennett, and a badass free agent. *I* could be the SS. But we need to sign that FA and hope that Dunta comes back for that to happen. Referring back to the disAstros: The difference between the ass-wipes that run the ‘Stros these days and Kubiak is that I believe Kubiak is a touch more than competent. He’ll be in his third year this year, and I can see his fiendish plan coming together. I think he’ll lead the way to make the signings/moves we need to to improve our secondary in 2008. I mean, he’s not Casserly, right?

And then, there’s Ray Rhodes. Yes, he’s got some serious health issues. And, yes, he might be slightly over-rated. The good news is that he brings some big-time insight into any defense he touches, and we hired him as the friggin’ secondary coach. That will be a good thing, Martha.

This is Part I for “Why I have a man-crush on the 2008 Texans.” Next up, the offense.

Over the last two weeks, there have been roughly 15,163,167 maudlin stories written about how “after the Super Bowl, we enter the long, dark winter of the offseason.” Said stories almost always talk about how great football season is (which is true), how any weekend with football is infinitely greater than any weekend without (which is arguably, usually true), and how the Super Bowl is the culmination of that greatness (which is a complete fucking lie unless your favorite team happens to be in it).

Don’t get me wrong–I love the Super Bowl. But not for those reasons. I love the Super Bowl because it is a social event where people who would never even watch an NFL game come together with those of us who watch way too much to drink, shoot the shit, laugh at commercials, and eat copious amounts of food. (In fact, the reason I am awake right now, at 4:30 AM on a Sunday was because I had to get the smoker started so the pork will be ready for kickoff.) More than THAT, however, I love the Super Bowl because it is the end of the bullshit.

Do you have any idea how hard it is to find shit to write about your team in the two weeks of Super Bowlgasm? Pretty fucking hard. Like “teaching in Port Arthur without a bulletproof vest” hard. Hell, even Chron.com is overrun with stories about the Pats and Giants and the gap in Mike Strahan’s teeth. For these two weeks–or more, depending on your team–there has been little to no coverage of anything that wasn’t Super Bowl related. This makes sense, I guess, but it still blows.

But, come the end of tonight’s game, all that is over. We can finally get down to brass tacks when it comes to free agents and the draft. After the Super Bowl, we start getting 40-times and workout monsters. We get overpriced free agents and incentive-laden one year deals. In short, we get everything that matters to anyone who didn’t watch his favorite team today. The end of the season is nothing to bemoan, people. It’s something to look forward to with great anticipation. Because the end of the Super Bowl means the real beginning of he 2008 season.

Last Fortnight: 1-1

Regular Season Record: 156-91

Playoff Record: 8-2

Super Bowl Pick

New York Giants v. New England. Brady’s foot. Plaxico’s mouth. Moss‘ pimphand. Belichick’s hoodie. Coughlin’s ineptitude. Tiki’s vagina. Does that about cover every tired story or did I miss one? Like everyone else, had there not been the two-week layoff between the title games and today, I might have tried to convince myself into taking the Giants. That defense–especially the front four–has been playing out of their collective tits for weeks now. Plus, Eli seems to have made the “leap” from punchline to potential star.

Thankfully, the fourteen-day rest gave me time to come to my fucking senses. First, Eli is still a Manning, right? The only reason Peyton was even IN the Super Bowl last year is because Reche Caldwell sucks at historical levels. Manning did his damnedest to give that game back, but he couldn’t overcome Ol’ Bugeyes’ complete inability to catch TD passes. Second, Tom Brady is NOT a Manning. Instead, he’s apparently a golden god who gets to live the life every one of us pretended to be living when we created players in Madden. “Yeah, I’m the QB. I date Super Models. I’ve won a bunch of Super Bowls. Everyone wants to be me. I’m kind of a big deal.”

But the main reason I can’t pick NY? Tom Coughlin. It’s not that he sucks in a vacuum, though he does. It’s that he is woefully less talented than Belichick. This matchup, with this layoff, is like giving Stephen Hawking and Corky Thatcher two weeks and telling them “OK, now give me a mathematical model of a black hole and explain how it relates to dark matter.” I have few rules in life, but one of them is this–always bet against a retard. Pick: New England

Update: Or not.

[Author's note: I've written this in fits and starts, had a bunch of different things I wanted to cover, and never really worked it through beginning to end. If it rambles, I apologize; if there are factual mistakes, they are mine.]

As we discussed in part one of my obsessive-compulsive pre-draft coverage, what a team should do in the draft cannot be determined in a vacuum. Therefore, to do this correctly, we need to compile as much information as possible and create a coherent Big Picture from which to work. So consider this Part Two of the project.

Now, whereas the last post focused on answering questions about the team, this one is going to take a look at what we know (or, more accurately, what we think we know) about the team and its tendencies. Hopefully, by combining what we know with our answers to the original questions, we can create an epistemological framework for analyzing the 2008 Draft. In this post, we will address what we know about the relative depth at the various positions on the roster.

1. Where we are thin. There are really two kinds of depth in the NFL. There is the “we have a body in case this guy goes down” and there’s “we have enough talent at a position to do all sorts of permutations and substitutions and keep everyone fresh while remaining effective on every snap.” For an example of the latter, look at the NY Giants defensive ends.

Thing is, only the “talent” depth is worth anything at all. In fact, you can go further and say having the “body” kind of depth as an actual goal is just plain stupid. I mean, you have a 53-man roster, so by definition you should always have enough bodies to replace an injured starter. So effin’ what? The point is to have depth with talent. While the Giants’ situation with their DEs is rare, it is the type of all teams should aspire to. Ideally, every guy on your roster is there because he was the best available player at his position in terms of what your team will ask of him. I say, “ideally,” however because teams and coaches seem to insist on carrying guys that serve no purpose (Petey Faggins) when there is almost certainly a better alternative out there. And they do it because “he gives us depth,” as if such a statement means anything.

How useless is “body” depth? As we saw with our secondary this year, even if every guy you planned on relying upon has been hurt and you have reached the end of your roster and have no guys left at a position, you are still going to be able to find someone to fill a hole. It might not always be pretty, but it’ll fill the hole and, really, the free agent on the street is unlikely to be appreciably worse than that 50th guy on your opening day roster. (And, on the flipside, you might just find a Will Demps who should not have been released by his former team and still has Pro Bowl-level talent.)

Anyway…all of this is just pie-in-the-sky rambling. Moving on.

Back to the point–where are we thin? The most obvious answer is in the Secondary, where neither of the top two CBs from 2007 is likely to start the season opener in 2008 and it remains to be seen if and to what degree Dunta Robinson will contribute in 2008. Moreover, Glenn Earl is an unrestricted free agent, is coming off a season-ending foot injury, and was never suited to be a free safety in the first place. Even worse, some of the backups–Jason Simmons (injured), Dexter Wynn, Von Hutchins (craptastic), and Roc Alexander (injured) are unrestricted free agents as well. Oh, and C.C. Brown is a restricted free agent. So, yeah, even if you account for unknowns like Derrick Roberson and Curome Cox, as of this very moment, it is not a stretch at all to say this unit is thinner than Tara Reid on a three-month coke bender.

Second–and perhaps most arguably–we are thin at RB. Ron Dayne (and this is the ONLY time you’ll see him listed among things that are thin) and Darius Walker are currently 1-2 on the depth chart I suppose, as Ahman Green is still a huge question mark. He’s injured, he’s old, he’s expensive, and he’s unproductive…but he’s also who we were relying upon as recently as 6 months ago. [Edit: Plus, you have the constant question of "is this the year Chris Taylor stays healthy and produces?"] With that kind of unsettled situation and only two healthy RBs–neither of whom is exactly something to write home about–you can only describe the position as “lacking.”

The final answer to my way of thinking is NT. Because we don’t have one. The Texans roster on the team homepage lists Travis Johnson as our only NT (most likely as a hold-over designation from the 3-4 days that no one bothered to change), but there are all kinds of things wrong with giving him that label. First, the mere fact that he outweighs our other DTs (other than Cedric Killings) does not make him a two-gap player. Second, he’s not even the best current team member for that position–in my opinion that would be Anthony Maddox (whom the interactive depth chart curiously has listed as Amobi’s backup), though I have unsubstantiated high hopes for DelJuan Robinson. Third, and perhaps most importantly it is my fondest wish that Travis would show up to Reliant one day, only to find that the locks had been changed. Then, as he looks around for a janitor or someone to let him in, he is gunned down by Central American Libyan rebels in a VW Microbus.

Where was I? Oh, yeah, lack of bodies. So, secondary and nose tackle are definitely thin as of now, and running back is arguably lacking as well. That could change if Demps is re-signed and remains exceedingly solid, or Dunta comes back quickly, or Ahman decides to stay healthy, or Travis gets sent to one of those shock boot-camp things where they send the crappy kids on Montel. But, for now, thin.

But that’s all obvious, because that’s a case of actually lacking players. If we turn our attention back to “talent” versus mere “body” depth, a case can be made that a number of other positions run the gamut of thinness from skinny to skeletal.

For one, and with apologies to Ephraim Salaam, we still don’t have a single NFL-quality left tackle on the roster unless Fluffy Spencer suddenly comes around. (The signing last offseason of Jordan Black was a perfect example of “body” depth as a goal, as no one in his right mind should have believed that a guy nicknamed “Turnstile” by fans of his previous team was going to offer much in the way of talent. The signing of the since-departed Kevin Barry was arguably the same thing–an attempt to accumulate large, non-dead humans.)

Currently, in addition to Salaam, Black, and Spencer, we have Brandon Frye who spent much of 2007 on the practice squad and of whom I wrote back in May:

The other Round 5 Brandon is, apparently, a mutant. 6′4″, 302, with a 690 lb squat and a 445 lb bench press to go along with a 4.79 40. He may be raw (actually, that’s not true… he IS raw), but he seems to have the tools to become a good offensive lineman. He finished the season at VT playing some left tackle, but I am guessing he will move to the interior of the line, perhaps displacing Fred Weary in a year or so.

Now, nearly a year later, I stand by the first part of that–that he is, indeed, a physical mutant and seems to possess solid tools from which to build. The only change I would make is to the second half of it, as his combination of speed and strength makes him a nice choice for the left tackle in an Alex Gibbs system.

But even if Frye is the LT of the future, that gives us…um…one healthy, in-shape, potentially-NFL-quality LT. THIN!!!

Moving inside to the guards, our depth chart currently shows Kasey Studdard as the backup at both left and right guard. Fred Weary is old (and injured and a free agent), Chester Pitts was less-than-stellar for much of the year, Scott Jackson is injured, and Mike Briesel and Dan Stevenson are relative unknowns. Until we have some sort of idea how Jackson will heal and what Briesel and Stevenson are capable of, the guard position offers nothing more than the “body” depth at best (and actual thinness at worst). And this problem could be exacerbated if some of the guys who seem healthy and ready to contribute prove unable to adjust to the Gibbs system.

On the other side of the ball, defensive end gives us another example of “body” depth without meaning. Currently, we have one great one (Mario Williams), one who has shown an occasional glimpse of real talent (Earl Cochran), one who is ancient and a free agent (ND Kalu), one who is grotesquely overpaid and did next to nothing this year (Anthony Weaver), and someone named Eric Powell who was just signed to a future/reserve contract. Unless Cochran turns out to be something good, we are sitting right now with one defensive end who is starter-quality and another–Weaver–who could possibly be again.

The other spot where we are sorely lacking on defense is at strongside linebacker. Danny Clark is good, but is a free agent and had momentary lapses that the coaching staff did not like. Charlie Anderson likewise had some solid moments but, overall, was uninspiring. Unless Zac Diles can move to the strongside (more on him in a bit), this position needs addressing in the offseason.

(Pauses to re-read all of the above.)

Guh…that was more than I planned to write for the first point. I think it all makes sense, though, so I am leaving it. Moving on…

2. Where we are deep. Based on the point I belabored above, you can guess that by “deep” I mean “richer than average with talent.” Under that rubric, really, it is possible to be “deep” at a position where you have but two players and not be deep at another where you have five. Which sounds confusing and counter-intuitive, but really isn’t. But, instead of further kicking that dead horse, let’s all just agree to read the following with that definition in mind, ok?

The most obvious position of depth on this team is quarterback. When you can have a serious discussion about whether or not you would trade your backup QB for a third-rounder, I think it is safe to say that you are stocked at the position. No, neither of them is going to remind you of Peyton Manning (because both of them are straight, for one thing), but they still give us solid talent behind our starting talent. For the record, I would still trade Sage in a heartbeat for anything in the fourth round or higher. But that is a different post that we and others have covered ad nauseum.

Secondly, we are stocked at middle and weakside linebacker. DeMeco is a golden god, but Diles has impressed both coaches and fans alike. (He’s also been versatile enough that Kubiak has made mention of moving Diles to one of the outside spots, which would change this equation somewhat.) What’s more, Danny Clark (assuming he’s re-signed) gives you a third option at middle linebacker.

On the weakside, as this blog and others have said, Morlon Greenwood is one of the most underrated defensive players in the league. He was consistently good to very good (with moments of great) this season. Behind him, you have Shawn Barber (assuming he comes back from injury and the team keeps him), the possibility of Zac Diles getting some time here if we find a strongside guy, and Danny Clark has experience at this position as well. This position is not so deep that it couldn’t be improved, mind you, but every person but one in line to play it brings at least some starting experience to the equation.

Moving back to the offensive side of the ball, a case can be made that we are potentially deep at Center. In addition to current starter Steve McKinney and seemingly serviceable Chris White (both injured), we recently signed two guys in Chukky Okobi and Greg Eslinger who seem to be very, very good fits for the new Gibbs regime. Thus, without even pausing to consider Mike Flanagan (who should not be on the roster as a center come September) or Drew Hodgdon (who might still be able to play guard), we have four Centers from which to find our best zone blockers and any of the four could conceivably be the guy.

Finally, I don’t think it is much of a stretch to say that we find ourselves deep at Wide Receiver. Andre Johnson, Andre Davis (because we better re-sign him), Kevin Walter, Jacoby Jones, David Anderson…that’s a solid five-man rotation. Now, as we saw, losing the guy at the front end of that list changes the dynamic greatly–Andre Davis is good, but it’s not like having a Reggie Wayne to stand in for Marvin Harrison–but going into the year with those five counts as quality depth in my book.

Now, astute readers will notice that the positions of TE and RT don’t appear on either list. The reasons why are as follows: At TE, whether we are deep or thin is going to depend on whether we resign Breuner, whether Gibbs likes Owen Daniels enough to make him the Shannon Sharpe of this offense, and whether we decide to keep Jeb Putzier (and how we choose to implement him). At RT, we have a very good starter and a specified backup, which is not really deep or thin at this point.

***

What can we glean from all this? Well, when you combine these holes with the draft history of the Kubiak-Gibbs era in Denver, I think we can assume that we will almost certainly NOT be drafting an o-lineman (even an LT) with our first pick, barring Jake Long falling to 18, but will fill up much of our second-day picks with the big fellas. There is a fair-to-good chance that we will go with defense, with the pick likely being the best-available defensive player who doesn’t play MLB or WLB. Personally, and I think I have said this before, I would rather get a CB through free agency instead of relying on another rookie alongside Fred. Also, if I had my druthers, I would prefer a nose tackle, but then this post isn’t about what I want.

There is also at least some evidence to suggest that Kubiak and Co will be willing to trade back if the offer presents itself, even trading all the way out of the first if the right package was available. Finally, I would not completely write off the idea of a running back at 18 if a Felix Jones or Jonathan Stewart was sitting there and Gibbs was convinced that was his guy.

My first incorrect playoff pick and I am actually pretty happy about it.

God, I loathe Peyton Manning. I blame Reche Caldwell for causing people to forget Manning’s decade of chokerating.

I’m not gonna lie–I am suffering from some severe writer’s block. Oh, sure, there are some small news bits I could post about. And I am still working on volume 2 of my draft opus. But I have nothing in the way of creative anything currently in the queue. I am sure something will happen soon enough that will spawn a fake conversation or ten, but for now…nada.

Before we get to the playoff picks (where, by the way, I was perfect last week), I’ll pass on this humorous anecdote that happened to a friend of mine, as relayed by him. Note: This really did happen to a friend and not to me. My anecdotes just involve dick photography.

So, a few years back, I met this chick online. Lame, I know, but fuck you, don’t judge me. Anyway, we were chatting and whatnot and she sent me a picture. Hot. Really fucking hot, actually. Even better, she was one of those chicks that says all the right shit–”yeah, I like football” and “oh, I love sex”–those sorts of things. After a few more days of emails and chats and such, we decided to meet up and go on a date. She gave me her address and asked me to pick her up.

The night of the date, I drove all the way up to College Station and parked in front of her house. I honked the horn–classy, I know–and she opened the front door. She looked exactly like the picture she’d sent me…except she had neglected to mention that she was in a goddamned wheelchair! She looked so happy rolling out of that house.

And so totally crushed when she realized I was driving away.

I laughed when he told me the story, but cringed as I was writing here. That, my friends, is the mark of a truly great anecdote.

Last Week: 4-0

Regular Season Record: 156-91

Playoff Record: 4-0

Playoffs Week 2 Picks:

Jacksonville @ New England. I’ve heard twenty different talking heads giving reasons why Jacksonville can win this game. Problem is, every one of those reasons starts with “If Jack