Down to 53

Chris Brown put on IR after my PUP disaster. (h/t Eric)

In other news, the Texans are expected to bring in Rob Carpenter and Tim Wilson for tryouts now.

Texans Roster Cutdown Live Blog!

Kickoff - Dia de los Muertos edition

Back among the living. As noted here and elsewhere, the list of the dearly departed will be read in a solemn service on Texans TV at 3:30 CST today.  In that vein, here’s my predicted roster (based on the roster makeup of the past few seasons):

QB: Matt Schaub, Sage Rosenfels
RB: Ahman Green, Steve Slaton, Vonta Leach, Chris Taylor, Darius Walker1
WR: Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, Andre Davis, Jacoby Jones, David Anderson
TE: Owen Daniels, Mark Bruener, Joel Dreessen
OL: Eric Winston, Kasey Studdard, Mike Brisiel, Chester Pitts, Duane Brown, Chris Myers, Chris White, Ephraim Salaam, Brandon Frye, Greg Eslinger2

DL: Mario Williams, Travis Johnson, Amobi Okoye, Anthony Weaver, Frank Okam, Earl Cochran, Tim Bulman, Deljuan Robinson, Rosevelt Colvin3, Gabe Long
LB: DeMeco Ryans, Zac Diles, Morlon Greenwood, Xavier Adibi, Kevin Bentley, Chaun Thompson4
CB: Fred Bennett, Jacques Reeves, Antwaun Molden, Jamar Fletcher, Petey Faggins5
S: Will Demps, Glenn Earl, Brandon Harrison6, C.C. Brown

P: Matt Turk
K: Kris Brown
LS: Brian Pittman7

1I think the carrying of three TEs rather than four, plus the inherent brittleness of Ahman Green might save Darius Walker’s job.

2I would not be the least bit surprised if Rashad Butler got Eslinger’s spot.

3Could EASILY wind up being Kalu rather than Colvin, given the latter’s “play” this preseason, but I think they’ll give Rosey a chance in the regular season.

4I’m actually bummed about losing Ben Moffit and Kevis Coley, but I am guessing at least one gets on the PS.  Also…I…I…um…Morlon…well, you know.

5SHIT.

6Dominique Barber to PS.

7Seriously, Bulman and Dreessen can long snap.  Why is Bryan Pittman eating up space?

Why hast thou forsaken me? Speaking of Petey fucking Faggins, I’m beginning to suspect he has made a deal with the devil or something.  After all, how do you explain his inspired (for him) first half?

BFD offered to tutor her in fluid dynamics, but she declined.  Strange-but-true fact—Texans Cheerleader Summer is an aerospace engineer for NASA.

Vaya con dios, asqueroso grande

First, my Spanish sucks.  Sorry if my translation is off.

Anyway, by now I’m sure you’ve heard that Charles “Big Nasty” Spencer was released today.  I don’t think any of us expected him to be the LT of the future, especially after the arrival of Alex Gibbs and Duane Brown.  Nor do I think anyone was shocked that a round of cuts came today considering that the team had to get down to 80 players by Friday and the easiest way to get there was to get rid of the guys least likely to make the team.  (Which is also why DGDB&D fave Jon Abbate as well as DT Eric Powell and G Dan Stevenson were sent packing this afternoon.)

No, I guess the only surprise, to the extent that there is one, is that Spencer was listed among the guys least likely to make the team, ahead of (or behind, I guess) such notables as TE Ryan Krause and/or 5-10 WR Mark Simmons.  Nothing against those guys, but you’d think that seeing what (if anything) Spencer had in the tank would be worth more than seeing what Mark Simmons brings to the table.  (Editor’s guess: Not much.)

In other, slightly related news while we are talking about roster space, I am still baffled about our continued employment of Bryan Pittman when THREE other Texans (Dreessen, Bulman, and Zgonina) can do his job while simultaneously not being limited to ONLY doing his job.  Dreessen would actually be the perfect dude to fill the dual role, as he is not asked to do much in the TE department on most days.

Kickoff

Filed this under BRB > Chron.com. I continued to be blown away with the substance the new BRBers are bringing to the Texans blogosphere.  Case in point, marroncito recently did a kick-ass interview with Tim Bulman.  I have to be honest–I assumed during the DHC/BFD discussion that Bulman was not long for this team.  After reading this piece, however, I REALLY hope I was wrong.  (Side note:  Has anyone found ANY news anywhere regarding DGDB&D fave Earl Cochran?)

But…wait…where are Bush and Young?!?!? Courtesy of Eric — who must not love me, because he’s never made me cry at work — we get CBSSportsline’s Top 50 players based on last year’s performance.  My only quibble with the list is DeMeco not making it (he was an honorable mention), but given that he was sorta hobbled near the end of the year, I suppose I can see it.  Maybe.  Kinda.

I guess we’re past the point of sneaking up on people.  A Yardbarker article listing teams that could be on the verge of a Super Bowl run.  Yes, we are on the list.  (And there’s a picturing of Mario making Jay Cutler his bitch at the bottom, which is always fun.)  Also funny, though the Saints are listed, Reggie Bush is not.

Finally.  Welcome back, BFD.  Despite what you say, there are many who would claim that I am not even the best blogger on this blog.  Like Tim.  Tim would totally say that because he’s a smartass.

It’s a homonym.

If you were watching the ol’ waiver wire today, two things should have jumped out at you.  First, you are as bored and lonely at work as I am.  Second, and (seemingly) more importantly, the Texans signed DB Jimmy Williams today.

When I read that, I actually got excited for a second.  I checked Google News.  Indeed, it appeared we really had signed the heretofore underperforming second-year pro out of Va Tech.  I was chalking this up to Ray Rhodes creating a fantastic secondary from parts people didn’t want anymore.  A 6′2″/205 CB/S who was the #1-rated DB in the 2006 draft?  Color me thrilled!

But then reality, in its typically cold fashion, showed up and smacked me in the mouth.  We didn’t sign that Jimmy Williams; we signed this Jimmy Williams.  The 6-year pro who most recently suited up for the Seattle Seahawks and who, at 5′10″/190 and 29 years of age, is unlikely to even register on the 53-man roster’s radar.  Damn.

Oh, well.

Wormser is a master of aerodynamics.

One of the odder things about me,1 especially to people who have only known me for a relatively short time, is that I spent nearly two years working in a daycare. Even more strange, however, is that I still count that one as my favorite job I’ve ever had. During the school year, I would drive the (short) bus and take the school-age kids to their respective elementary schools, then spend the rest of the day in the three-year-old room, quietly crafting my unholy toddler army. But that is a story for a different day.

During the summer, however, I abandoned my post as three-year-old assistant teacher and was full-time in the school-age room. For the most part, I was responsible for driving us on field trips, delivering some kids to the community swimming program, and making sure no one got killed (which is harder than it sounds when you are the one wanting some of them to die). I also spent a great deal of time dominating nine-year-olds at basketball (on an 8-foot goal!) and wiffle ball. Those were the salad days.

Part of our summer program included something called Outdoor Teaching Activities, which we predictably shortened to OTAs. Ostensibly a way to teach the kids about science and nature, these were really nothing more than having them measure wind speed with bubbles or guess how many helium balloons it would take to lift object X five feet off the ground. Maybe they learned something, maybe they didn’t, but it got them outside and kept us (the teachers) sane. Plus, there is nothing more entertaining than watching a kid who throws like Lamar when he is on flat ground try to throw while standing on a balance beam. High comedy there.

ANYWAY, the point is that, to this day, when I hear “OTAs,” even in a Texans context, my mind does not go to 7-on-7 football and cone drills. Instead, I immediately picture Charles Spencer lighting leaves on fire with a magnifying glass and Zac Diles standing on top of a jungle gym with a bubble wand. I am nothing if not strange.

My own mental issues aside, however, OTAs continue in Texanland, entirely devoid of four-leaf clover searches and sidewalk chalk. And, as a blogger, I suppose I should get off my lazy ass2 and mention them. First up, some choice quotes (and my less-than-choice reactions) from that font of wisdom and geyser of information, Gary Kubiak.

(on the possibility of a healthy QB Matt Schaub, RB Ahman Green and WR Andre Johnson) “Well, it means a great deal. Y’all saw how we played offensively when Ahman was available because he just brings a new dimension, and I think what we’re doing running the ball with Alex (Gibbs), I think Ahman’s really a nice fit with that and I think he’s gaining confidence in what we’re doing. The health of the football team’s important across the board, not just those three, but those three are pretty darn important.”

Not gonna lie to you, Gar…this isn’t exactly what I was hoping to hear. My hope was that you would say “Ahman? Ahman who? Oh, you mean that guy we are going to cut June 1? Yeah, F him.” In retrospect, I was probably hoping for too much, both from him last year and from you in this quote, but still.

Seriously, though, (1) I don’t see Green staying healthy and (2) I REALLY don’t see him thriving in the new system. His field vision is good enough, but methinks there are too many miles on those old legs to really get the explosive cuts that make the system effective.

Kubiak again:

(on the role of DE Anthony Weaver) “I think it could actually pick up for him because he’s healthy. He’s going through the offseason and he’s feeling as good as he’s ever felt. You always have to rotate D-linemen. I think maybe we’ll get a little more out of Anthony than last year just because we’re getting a good offseason out of him.”

Phew, that’s good. I was worried that we’d get less out him than last year. What’s that? There’s nothing less than zero? Oh…yeah…I suppose you are right.

Yes, yes, I know he was coming off a shoulder injury, so I will cut him a little slack. But when you are the highest paid player on the team, you only get so much slack. I really hope he does contribute like I thought he would when we signed him, because that would give us a monster D-line. I’m just not going to hold my breath here and I won’t be surprised one bit if BFD’s prediction of Chaun Thompson as a situational DE limits Weaver’s impact.

Other news and notes from the first three days of OTAs:

  • **Unlike last year, the Texans website is no longer pluralizing OTA as OTA’s. This makes me exceedingly happy. And, because I wrote this last year, I am going to take credit for the change. Viva me!
  • **DGDB&D whipping boy Petey Faggins is back and he’s mad! OK, not “mad,” really. More like, “hoping to still be on the team come opening day.” Says the seventh-year pro, “I just remembered all the good things that happened and got my confidence back up.” No offense, Pete, but I searched my memory long and hard for good things that happened to you and all I could come up with was you losing your starting job after the Chargers game.
  • **I have a theory. If you face this everyday in practice, Kyle Vanden Bosch starts to look as intimidating as a midget driving a VW Beetle:
  • **Finally, and as BFD mentioned, Andre Johnson is still on the shelf following minor knee surgery. It sounds crazy, but the health of that knee is likely the difference between 7-9 and 10-6. He is THAT important to the offense, as we saw over and over again last year. Here’s hoping he’s 100% come September.

1 Which, if you know me, is really saying something.
2 Figuratively, of course. Because who would type standing up?

Okam? Damn near killed ‘im!

I love to quote myself as an authority in later conversations. It really disorients the listener and, if you are engaged in a debate of some sort, bolsters your own cred and you current argument at the same time. It works in pretty much any discussion.

“Man, Pacino is a much better actor than DeNiro.” “Actually, as I noted just two weeks ago, DeNiro’s range makes him a much better actor than Pacino.”

“I love creamy peanut butter.” “Interesting, but are you aware that I stated over a year ago that crunchy peanut butter is the bee’s knees?”

“You suck.” “Have you considered my findings of 4/12/06 that you are a shiteating cockrag?”

Anyway, with that in mind, I won’t be grading this year’s draft in any sort of conventional sense. Because, as I said in this blog’s inaugural post,

Speaking of “grading” the drafts, let me just say that I find the whole process asinine. The two most important things in a draft should be (a) filling needs and (b) taking the best available player to fill those needs (with an eye on not drafting a player too early). Unfortunately, most people seem to grade the draft by guessing what the drafted players will do in the NFL. Teams that get the Can’t Miss players automatically “score” higher. But, for every Reggie Bush, there are multiple Can’t Miss guys like Robert Gallery, Charles Rogers, and Joey Harrington. Even more to the point, there are plenty of guys in this and every draft taken after the first round or two who will become stars. So, when Kiper says that the Raiders did well because they got a “franchise QB” in JaMarcus Russell, he’s talking out of his ass. Which probably also has fantastically groomed hair.

I stand by that; grading a draft is stupid because it assumes you know what players are going to do. Or you are simply giving the best grades to the teams who got more of the players you rated highly beforehand, which is also stupid. So, aside from my esteemed co-blogger, who I would totally make out with if we weren’t both straight guys, anyone who grades a draft can go die in a fire.

What I will do, however, is offer a completely biased, utterly unscientific ranking of the players into categories of my own choosing. This is not a draft grade, it’s an arms race, ho. Or something like that.

Player Whose Selection I Absolutely Love:

Xavier Adibi–Well before people started declaring for the draft, Adibi was on my shortlist of LBs possibly coming out (along with Laurinitis and Beckwith). I even watched four VaTech games solely to keep an eye on him. So, yeah, you could say I am thrilled about this pick. He has insane lateral speed, a great nose for the ball, and I don’t think I ever saw him give up on a play. Plus, he knocks the shit out of people, seemingly just for fun sometimes. I dare say that, if he becomes the player I think he will, a trio of Adibi, Greenwood, and DeJesus gives us one of the best LB units in the league. At worst, his selection will push Zach Diles to become a better OLB, so it’s kind of win-win. In fact, the only person this selection is probably bad news for is Kevin Bentley–I don’t see us breaking camp with six linebackers and my guess is that we’ll take Adibi, DeMeco, Greenwood, Diles, and Thompson. (This is subject to change if BFD’s “Thompson as DE” theory pans out.)

Players Whose Selections Make Me Excited In A Non-Sexual Way:

Frank Okam–While I think BFD might be throwing out the ultimate absolute best-case scenario when he likens Okam to Shaun Rogers, I am a big fan of Frank. Given that I basically screamed for a NT non-stop over the last three months, getting a really bright guy who is 6′4″/350 and runs a 5.32 is like a dream come true. I am not buying the “move him to guard” talk for a second, as Okam is immediately the best NT prospect we have. Yes, that includes you, Trav, you underwhelming fuckhole. Anyway, getting Okam in Day 2 more than makes up for not getting Balmer with our first rounder in my book. Plus, I honestly think that his presence makes Amobi and Mario better this year, which should frighten the sweet tap-dancing Christ out of opposing QBs.

Steve Slaton–The thing that really excites me about Slaton is that I think we got a great bargain where we picked him. If you harken back to, say, August 2007, Slaton and Brian Brohm were talked about as early Heisman favorites. Now, neither had the season to back that up, but–in Slaton’s case, at least–I don’t think that’s entirely his fault. That WVU team had so many weapons in the backfield that I feel safe in assuming Steve merely got lost in the shuffle. Once Pat White started dominating with his legs in the spread, Slaton’s role was diminished and it was further hurt by the impact of Noel Devine and Owen Schmitt. *takes another sip of the Kool-Aid* Regardless of whether I am indulging in wishful thinking, one thing is for sure: Slaton is the potential homerun threat that we haven’t had since…um…ever.

Players Whose Selections Do Not Make Me Want To Kill Someone:

Antwaun Molden–We needed a CB according to many people and, other than DR-C (side note: Fuck you to death, Arizona), I wasn’t really wanting to take one with our first-round pick after overpaying Frenchy Reeves. So getting Molden answered both of my wishes with respect to this position. As others have more descriptively detailed, Molden is a physical corner and is a workout warrior. Reminds me of a certain Gamecock we drafted last year.

Dominique Barber– The only reason I don’t dislike this pick is because I am all for some good, old fashioned competition in the safety corps during this year’s camp. I’ve never been much of a fan of C.C. Brown or Glenn Earl, so bringing in more bodies to up the level that people will have to perform is all right by this guy.

Player Whose Selection Will Only Be Acceptable If Accompanied By A Pro Bowl Selection:

Duane Brown–Look, I’ve read all the explanations for taking him. For the record, I like this one from Chris the best. But here’s my problem with this pick: the beauty of the ZBS is that in all the years Gibbs has been doing it, he’d only taken an offensive lineman once in the first round.

Another consistent thing about Gibbs’ teams–more often than not, they don’t take offensive linemen early in the draft. In 1984, the first o-lineman they took was in Round 8 (Winford Hood). In 1985, Round 5 (Billy Hinson). In 1986, Round 4 (Jim Juriga–this one is misleading, though, because the fourth round was the first pick Denver had). In 1987, Round 8 (Dan Morgan). In 1995, Round 4 (Jamie Brown). In 1996, Round 7 (Leslie Ratliff). In 1997, Round 3 (Dan Neil). In 1998, Round 7 (Trey Teague). In 1999, Round 2 (Lennie Friedman). In 2000, Round 4 (Cooper Carlisle). In 2001, Round 4 (Ben Hamilton). In 2002, they didn’t draft one. Finally, in 2003, Round 1 (George Foster).

When he went to Atlanta, the trend continued. 2004–didn’t draft one. 2005–Round 5 (Frank Omiyale). 2006–Round 5 (Quinn Ojinnaka).

Look at those names for a second.  Presumably, these are all guys that Gibbs was “really high on,” yet only one of them warranted a first-round selection.  By taking Brown in the first round, Gibbs must be saying that Brown is such a perfect fit for his system that Gibbs absolutely could not take the chance of not getting him.  In short, Brown must be the ultimate archetype of a ZBS lineman.  Or at least as much of an archetype as George Foster was.
Yeah…

Anyway, that’s not the reason the selection pissed me off so much.  If Brown really is designed for the ZBS, that’s great.  But the question is whether he’s better at LT than Mendenhall would have been at RB.  Or Jenkins would have been at corner.  Sure, we got Slaton and Molden, which definitely eases the sting a bit, but if Brown falls on his face (or even if Mendenhall and Jenkins thrive elsewhere while Brown is just average), there is going to be a huge “what if Gibbs had just stuck to his pattern and not reached for Brown” hanging over the pick.

Player Whose Selection Suggests Kubiak Must Owe Alex Brink’s Dad A Favor:

Alex Brink–Seriously…what the fuck?

So long, and thanks for all the snaps

Rotoworld is reporting that C Steve McKinney, an original Texan, has been cut.

From a purely business point-of-view, the news isn’t a surprise. Between his knee injury last year and the smorgasbord of centers we have signed or traded for in the off-season, the message was there.

Still, the ex-Aggie workhorse (that’s for you, beef. I love you, man!) put a lot of effort into the team over his years. In fact, before his injury in 2007, he was having an excellent season, and the running game suffered noticeably after his injury.

McKinney has said he’d like to return at a reduced cost, and he may, but he’ll still have a ton of competition to stick on the active roster.

I won’t make this his official Texans obit, but the time is probably nigh. Thanks for all the work and good luck, Steve.

Note: So, the hosting provider had a bit of a hurl this afternoon, so this is waaaaay late getting posted. Still, I wrote the damn thing, so it’s going up.

Oh, and I hope the title reference is obvious enough.

Please? PLEASE?!?

I know I am on record various places as saying I absolutely do not want to draft a CB with our first pick, primarily because I hate the idea of “Fred and Rookie CB” as our starting tandem. (Then again, I’d take a number of 7th graders over Petey and he was one half of our duo at this point last season, so it could be much worse.)

Anyway…I have to amend that position a bit. I absolutely do not want to draft a CB with our first pick unless Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie falls to 18.

40-yard dash? 4.33 (3d among CBs).
Vertical jump? 38.5 (1st among CBs).
Broad jump? 10′11″ (1st among CBs).
Three-cone drill? 6.74 sec (T-1st among CBs).
60-yard shuttle? 11.06 sec (1st among CBs).

Wow.

Holy fucking jeez, even.

And before any of you mentions that “combine numbers are overblown–what matters is on-field performance,” take a gander at this:

In 39 starts for the Tigers, opposing quarterbacks completed just 55 of 161 passes (34.16%) thrown in Rodgers-Cromartie’s immediate area. He intercepted 11 of those throws, deflected 25 and held the opposition to a miniscule 3.54 yards per pass attempt, the best of any collegiate defensive back over the last three seasons.

I think I am in love. I put him just below Felix Jones and above Kenny Phillips (who, luckily might actually slip due to a mediocre combine) on my wish list.

If Anna-Megan could read, she’d rip us off, too.

Now, I know that at least once before, I wrote a post about the Chron ripping off something that happened here and passing it off as original. I was subsequently accused of being overreaching, paranoid, and narcissistic (none of which I can dispute). Whatever. Let’s ride that horse again.

I got an email from Jersey Bill tonight, pointing out a little similarity between a comment he made and a column written by Megan Manfull. Bill writes:

I honestly believe it is a testament to Al Gore’s Internet that this could happen. Notice the post date and time [of this Megan Manfull column]. I put up the same thing about 3 hours before she did in BFD’s CB post. Now, I’m not claiming that I had inside knowledge and this an exclusive. I’m saying that a goof who likes to read a blog about the Texans throws out the same question, and on a nothing doing day, it ends up in a major media website. This pretty much takes another stomp at the dead horse, but how lazy could these writers be? I wouldn’t mind that much, but all these smarmy writers takes shots at fan sites and blogs whenever they get a chance.

Interesting. Let’s investigate. First, Jersey Bill’s comment on BFD’s post about CBs.

Jersey Bill replies at 24th February 2008, 3:42 pm :

Brian Kelly (Bucs CB) opted out of his contract and Michael Huff is available via trade. Wouldn’t it be nice to grab those two with one fell swoop? Certainly would change the draft board.

Now, for Megan’s missive.

How does safety Michael Huff sound for Texans?

There are reports around Oakland that former Longhorns safety Michael Huff is on the trading block. With the draft full of offensive tackles and cornerbacks, the Texans will be looking for safeties in free agency. Anyone want to see Huff become a Texan?

Posted by Megan Manfull at February 24, 2008 07:25 PM

Is it completely plausible that Manfull heard the rumor elsewhere and thought it would provide thought-provoking fodder for her blog. I realize that. At the same time, it is awful convenient (as Bill points out) that on a day when next to nothing is happening other than the combine, Manfull writes a blog entry about something that was posted here three hours prior. (This is where I would say “verrrrry interesting” and stroke my long white beard if I were an evil mastermind.)

It’s ok, Megan. There is no shame in reading DGDB&D. Well, other than some of the stuff BFD writes, that is. All we ask is that you give a little nod or hat tip or some kind of Lilith Fair fish taco wave or whatever.

***

In other, related news, I hope to have some sort of rundown of Combine results tomorrow or Tuesday. My wife and this damned fetus are in “well, it could fall out at any point” mode, so I promise nothing. Actually, that’s not true–I promise a Romo-Simpson wedding post at some point real soon. And if Pancakes does the fake conversation before I do, I will kill a puppy.

Battlelicious

According to Rick Smith:

[T]he team won’t hesitate to start [Sage] Rosenfels if he outplays [Matt] Schaub this season.

“That to me always plays itself out on the football field,” Smith said. “I don’t think you can let finances, ego, I don’t think you can let anything stand in the way of playing the best football player because that is going to win you football games on Sunday.”

I suppose, on its face, that statement is far more enlightened than what you get out of most general managers. Lord knows, you’d never hear something like that out of Dallas, even if Jesus Christ himself was the second-string QB. (Not that Jesus would ever deign to play for the ladies up north. Maybe I should have used “Troy Aikman’s assbaby” as my hypothetical QB. Whatever.)

ANYWAY…like I said, that is a pretty enlightened statement for a GM to make. Do I buy it? Depends. If you are asking whether I believe that Sage would get to play if Schaub flopped, of course. If, however, you are asking whether I think Schaub and Sage enter this season on equal footing with the starting QB job up for grabs, my answer is “hell to da naw, dawg.” Which I think means “no.”

Without rehashing all the same Schaub v. Sage arguments, can we all just agree that pretending like the QB you mortgaged the farm for this time last year is going to be given every chance in the world to succeed is asinine? Better yet, can we agree that if Sage and Schaub turn in identical pre-season performances that Schaub is the guy you go with? Finally, can we assume that I am just doing a paragraph of nothing but rhetorical questions so it looks like I have posted more?

Alive

I know it’s been dead-ish around here. Apologies.

All should improve starting tomorrow. I think. Probably.

Until then, here are five topics to discuss:

  • Has anyone ever done more in a shorter time to submarine his own trade value than Sage did at the end of the season?
  • Andre Johnson–god, or mere demigod?
  • If Ahman Green died in a forest, would anyone notice?
  • Given that Andre Davis is a special teams ninja as well as a solid receiver, do you think Jacoby Jones admires Apostrohpe or secretly wishes him dead?
  • Who weighs more: Ron Dayne or Rosie O’Donnell?

Don’t call it a comeback

So, I’ve been absent lately. I nearly wrote “notably absent,” but that would have been presumptuous on my part and, most likely, incorrect. We’ll just stick with “absent.”

Anyway…as I have bitched to a number of you over email or text message, I managed to catch some sort of virus last week, which filled me with roughly twenty pounds of snot. By Saturday, I was feeling better, so I allowed myself to be roped into helping someone move, which caused me to spend all day out in damp, 40-degree air. Apparently, this was a bad idea, as my doctor informed me today that I now have “severe bronchitis, a double ear infection, and tonsilitis.” Which is another way of saying I feel like I got skull-fucked by a rhinoceros.

Why am I telling all of you this? Because I like to pretend like you care. Moving on…

As has been discussed here and elsewhere, the Texans hired Ray Rhodes. There is absolutely no way this can be seen as anything but a fantastic move. Whether Rhodes is merely an assistant and is tasked with helping to improve the secondary or he is made an assistant head coach and has more oversight, the end result is that someone with a MUCH better defensive mind than Richard Smith is going to have input on the defensive side of the ball.

1Texan’s dream of a Jared Zabransky-led offense is kaput–the Sooner Killer is expected to sign with the Steelers. He’s expected to “compete to be the team’s 3rd-string quarterback.” There really isn’t anything else to be said here.

[Author's Note: The movie The Number 23 is playing in the background as I write this. I am, coincidentally enough, 23 minutes into it. Does it get to a level even approaching "decent" in the near future, or should I change channels at the top of the hour?]

Finally, it seems that Jacoby Jones is back at Lane College this semester and hopes to graduate this summer. Good for him. I hope one of his final classes focuses on not being horribly cliched and boring in Q-and-A sessions. Reading that was like watching him return punts against Tennessee–painful and awkward.

2500 Words on Roster Depth

[Author's note: I've written this in fits and starts, had a bunch of different things I wanted to cover, and never really worked it through beginning to end. If it rambles, I apologize; if there are factual mistakes, they are mine.]

As we discussed in part one of my obsessive-compulsive pre-draft coverage, what a team should do in the draft cannot be determined in a vacuum. Therefore, to do this correctly, we need to compile as much information as possible and create a coherent Big Picture from which to work. So consider this Part Two of the project.

Now, whereas the last post focused on answering questions about the team, this one is going to take a look at what we know (or, more accurately, what we think we know) about the team and its tendencies. Hopefully, by combining what we know with our answers to the original questions, we can create an epistemological framework for analyzing the 2008 Draft. In this post, we will address what we know about the relative depth at the various positions on the roster.

1. Where we are thin. There are really two kinds of depth in the NFL. There is the “we have a body in case this guy goes down” and there’s “we have enough talent at a position to do all sorts of permutations and substitutions and keep everyone fresh while remaining effective on every snap.” For an example of the latter, look at the NY Giants defensive ends.

Thing is, only the “talent” depth is worth anything at all. In fact, you can go further and say having the “body” kind of depth as an actual goal is just plain stupid. I mean, you have a 53-man roster, so by definition you should always have enough bodies to replace an injured starter. So effin’ what? The point is to have depth with talent. While the Giants’ situation with their DEs is rare, it is the type of all teams should aspire to. Ideally, every guy on your roster is there because he was the best available player at his position in terms of what your team will ask of him. I say, “ideally,” however because teams and coaches seem to insist on carrying guys that serve no purpose (Petey Faggins) when there is almost certainly a better alternative out there. And they do it because “he gives us depth,” as if such a statement means anything.

How useless is “body” depth? As we saw with our secondary this year, even if every guy you planned on relying upon has been hurt and you have reached the end of your roster and have no guys left at a position, you are still going to be able to find someone to fill a hole. It might not always be pretty, but it’ll fill the hole and, really, the free agent on the street is unlikely to be appreciably worse than that 50th guy on your opening day roster. (And, on the flipside, you might just find a Will Demps who should not have been released by his former team and still has Pro Bowl-level talent.)

Anyway…all of this is just pie-in-the-sky rambling. Moving on.

Back to the point–where are we thin? The most obvious answer is in the Secondary, where neither of the top two CBs from 2007 is likely to start the season opener in 2008 and it remains to be seen if and to what degree Dunta Robinson will contribute in 2008. Moreover, Glenn Earl is an unrestricted free agent, is coming off a season-ending foot injury, and was never suited to be a free safety in the first place. Even worse, some of the backups–Jason Simmons (injured), Dexter Wynn, Von Hutchins (craptastic), and Roc Alexander (injured) are unrestricted free agents as well. Oh, and C.C. Brown is a restricted free agent. So, yeah, even if you account for unknowns like Derrick Roberson and Curome Cox, as of this very moment, it is not a stretch at all to say this unit is thinner than Tara Reid on a three-month coke bender.

Second–and perhaps most arguably–we are thin at RB. Ron Dayne (and this is the ONLY time you’ll see him listed among things that are thin) and Darius Walker are currently 1-2 on the depth chart I suppose, as Ahman Green is still a huge question mark. He’s injured, he’s old, he’s expensive, and he’s unproductive…but he’s also who we were relying upon as recently as 6 months ago. [Edit: Plus, you have the constant question of "is this the year Chris Taylor stays healthy and produces?"] With that kind of unsettled situation and only two healthy RBs–neither of whom is exactly something to write home about–you can only describe the position as “lacking.”

The final answer to my way of thinking is NT. Because we don’t have one. The Texans roster on the team homepage lists Travis Johnson as our only NT (most likely as a hold-over designation from the 3-4 days that no one bothered to change), but there are all kinds of things wrong with giving him that label. First, the mere fact that he outweighs our other DTs (other than Cedric Killings) does not make him a two-gap player. Second, he’s not even the best current team member for that position–in my opinion that would be Anthony Maddox (whom the interactive depth chart curiously has listed as Amobi’s backup), though I have unsubstantiated high hopes for DelJuan Robinson. Third, and perhaps most importantly it is my fondest wish that Travis would show up to Reliant one day, only to find that the locks had been changed. Then, as he looks around for a janitor or someone to let him in, he is gunned down by Central American Libyan rebels in a VW Microbus.

Where was I? Oh, yeah, lack of bodies. So, secondary and nose tackle are definitely thin as of now, and running back is arguably lacking as well. That could change if Demps is re-signed and remains exceedingly solid, or Dunta comes back quickly, or Ahman decides to stay healthy, or Travis gets sent to one of those shock boot-camp things where they send the crappy kids on Montel. But, for now, thin.

But that’s all obvious, because that’s a case of actually lacking players. If we turn our attention back to “talent” versus mere “body” depth, a case can be made that a number of other positions run the gamut of thinness from skinny to skeletal.

For one, and with apologies to Ephraim Salaam, we still don’t have a single NFL-quality left tackle on the roster unless Fluffy Spencer suddenly comes around. (The signing last offseason of Jordan Black was a perfect example of “body” depth as a goal, as no one in his right mind should have believed that a guy nicknamed “Turnstile” by fans of his previous team was going to offer much in the way of talent. The signing of the since-departed Kevin Barry was arguably the same thing–an attempt to accumulate large, non-dead humans.)

Currently, in addition to Salaam, Black, and Spencer, we have Brandon Frye who spent much of 2007 on the practice squad and of whom I wrote back in May:

The other Round 5 Brandon is, apparently, a mutant. 6′4″, 302, with a 690 lb squat and a 445 lb bench press to go along with a 4.79 40. He may be raw (actually, that’s not true… he IS raw), but he seems to have the tools to become a good offensive lineman. He finished the season at VT playing some left tackle, but I am guessing he will move to the interior of the line, perhaps displacing Fred Weary in a year or so.

Now, nearly a year later, I stand by the first part of that–that he is, indeed, a physical mutant and seems to possess solid tools from which to build. The only change I would make is to the second half of it, as his combination of speed and strength makes him a nice choice for the left tackle in an Alex Gibbs system.

But even if Frye is the LT of the future, that gives us…um…one healthy, in-shape, potentially-NFL-quality LT. THIN!!!

Moving inside to the guards, our depth chart currently shows Kasey Studdard as the backup at both left and right guard. Fred Weary is old (and injured and a free agent), Chester Pitts was less-than-stellar for much of the year, Scott Jackson is injured, and Mike Briesel and Dan Stevenson are relative unknowns. Until we have some sort of idea how Jackson will heal and what Briesel and Stevenson are capable of, the guard position offers nothing more than the “body” depth at best (and actual thinness at worst). And this problem could be exacerbated if some of the guys who seem healthy and ready to contribute prove unable to adjust to the Gibbs system.

On the other side of the ball, defensive end gives us another example of “body” depth without meaning. Currently, we have one great one (Mario Williams), one who has shown an occasional glimpse of real talent (Earl Cochran), one who is ancient and a free agent (ND Kalu), one who is grotesquely overpaid and did next to nothing this year (Anthony Weaver), and someone named Eric Powell who was just signed to a future/reserve contract. Unless Cochran turns out to be something good, we are sitting right now with one defensive end who is starter-quality and another–Weaver–who could possibly be again.

The other spot where we are sorely lacking on defense is at strongside linebacker. Danny Clark is good, but is a free agent and had momentary lapses that the coaching staff did not like. Charlie Anderson likewise had some solid moments but, overall, was uninspiring. Unless Zac Diles can move to the strongside (more on him in a bit), this position needs addressing in the offseason.

(Pauses to re-read all of the above.)

Guh…that was more than I planned to write for the first point. I think it all makes sense, though, so I am leaving it. Moving on…

2. Where we are deep. Based on the point I belabored above, you can guess that by “deep” I mean “richer than average with talent.” Under that rubric, really, it is possible to be “deep” at a position where you have but two players and not be deep at another where you have five. Which sounds confusing and counter-intuitive, but really isn’t. But, instead of further kicking that dead horse, let’s all just agree to read the following with that definition in mind, ok?

The most obvious position of depth on this team is quarterback. When you can have a serious discussion about whether or not you would trade your backup QB for a third-rounder, I think it is safe to say that you are stocked at the position. No, neither of them is going to remind you of Peyton Manning (because both of them are straight, for one thing), but they still give us solid talent behind our starting talent. For the record, I would still trade Sage in a heartbeat for anything in the fourth round or higher. But that is a different post that we and others have covered ad nauseum.

Secondly, we are stocked at middle and weakside linebacker. DeMeco is a golden god, but Diles has impressed both coaches and fans alike. (He’s also been versatile enough that Kubiak has made mention of moving Diles to one of the outside spots, which would change this equation somewhat.) What’s more, Danny Clark (assuming he’s re-signed) gives you a third option at middle linebacker.

On the weakside, as this blog and others have said, Morlon Greenwood is one of the most underrated defensive players in the league. He was consistently good to very good (with moments of great) this season. Behind him, you have Shawn Barber (assuming he comes back from injury and the team keeps him), the possibility of Zac Diles getting some time here if we find a strongside guy, and Danny Clark has experience at this position as well. This position is not so deep that it couldn’t be improved, mind you, but every person but one in line to play it brings at least some starting experience to the equation.

Moving back to the offensive side of the ball, a case can be made that we are potentially deep at Center. In addition to current starter Steve McKinney and seemingly serviceable Chris White (both injured), we recently signed two guys in Chukky Okobi and Greg Eslinger who seem to be very, very good fits for the new Gibbs regime. Thus, without even pausing to consider Mike Flanagan (who should not be on the roster as a center come September) or Drew Hodgdon (who might still be able to play guard), we have four Centers from which to find our best zone blockers and any of the four could conceivably be the guy.

Finally, I don’t think it is much of a stretch to say that we find ourselves deep at Wide Receiver. Andre Johnson, Andre Davis (because we better re-sign him), Kevin Walter, Jacoby Jones, David Anderson…that’s a solid five-man rotation. Now, as we saw, losing the guy at the front end of that list changes the dynamic greatly–Andre Davis is good, but it’s not like having a Reggie Wayne to stand in for Marvin Harrison–but going into the year with those five counts as quality depth in my book.

Now, astute readers will notice that the positions of TE and RT don’t appear on either list. The reasons why are as follows: At TE, whether we are deep or thin is going to depend on whether we resign Breuner, whether Gibbs likes Owen Daniels enough to make him the Shannon Sharpe of this offense, and whether we decide to keep Jeb Putzier (and how we choose to implement him). At RT, we have a very good starter and a specified backup, which is not really deep or thin at this point.

***

What can we glean from all this? Well, when you combine these holes with the draft history of the Kubiak-Gibbs era in Denver, I think we can assume that we will almost certainly NOT be drafting an o-lineman (even an LT) with our first pick, barring Jake Long falling to 18, but will fill up much of our second-day picks with the big fellas. There is a fair-to-good chance that we will go with defense, with the pick likely being the best-available defensive player who doesn’t play MLB or WLB. Personally, and I think I have said this before, I would rather get a CB through free agency instead of relying on another rookie alongside Fred. Also, if I had my druthers, I would prefer a nose tackle, but then this post isn’t about what I want.

There is also at least some evidence to suggest that Kubiak and Co will be willing to trade back if the offer presents itself, even trading all the way out of the first if the right package was available. Finally, I would not completely write off the idea of a running back at 18 if a Felix Jones or Jonathan Stewart was sitting there and Gibbs was convinced that was his guy.

Opening Salvo

Certain discussions in football are incredibly dependent upon context. Take, for instance, “who is the greatest player of all time?” Without contextualizing the question, we can have different answers and all might be correct. If you are asking “who was the most dominant in his era,” the near-universal answer is Jim Brown. If you are factoring in which player had the biggest drop-off in talent between himself and the second-best player at his position, Lawrence Taylor is a popular answer. And if you are considering longevity coupled with a high level of performance, a case can be made for Larry Allen, Emmitt Smith, or even Brett Favre if a person is so inclined.

Discussing the draft is no different. Before we can have any sort of serious discussion regarding our needs (both perceived and real) and how the draft can meet them, we have to answer the following:

  • What is the 2008 contribution from Dunta Robinson likely to be?
  • What is the 2008 contribution from Charles Spencer likely to be?
  • Is Travis Johnson going to be on the 2008 Texans?
  • Which of our free agents are going to be re-signed?
  • Which free agents from other teams are we looking at?
  • Which role players/reserves from this year played well enough to challenge for an expanded role next year?
  • Which starters played poorly enough to “earn” their outright releases?

Let’s try to tackle these. Everything from here is on is my best guess, so feel free to correct/mock/taunt me in the comments.

1. What is the 2008 contribution from Dunta Robinson likely to be?

The facts: According to this article (hat tip to reader Eric, who keeps me abreast of stuff almost daily), Dunta is taking rehab seriously and is progressing well.

“I know myself, and I know what I will do to get back on the field,” [Dunta said].

Unless you enjoy being wrong, don’t doubt him.

He might be moving slowly with a limp [as of now], but at some point next season, No. 23 will throw his body around Reliant Stadium, making hard-hit highlights.

***

The most likely scenario calls for Robinson, 25, to be placed on the physically unable to perform list entering camp. If he isn’t ready at the start of the season, he would not be eligible to be activated until after the sixth game.

Though he has been told he is ahead of schedule in the rehab, he smartly realizes to rush would be foolish.

Really bad grammar aside, no one is currently ruling out the possibility that he will be back on opening day. Now, given the severity of the injury–see video here–it might be a little much to expect a September return, but what if he is ready to go by October? With Dunta and Fred Bennett, it would make very little sense to draft a CB at 18. (This is doubly true when you consider that this draft isn’t exactly rife with big name cornerback talent–not only would be drafting redundantly, but you would be reaching to do it.)

One strange sub-question to this is what if Dunta does return as planned in 2008, but is not as fast as he was prior to the injury? Because I know we don’t want to hear it right now, but there is no guarantee that he can rehab his speed back to what it was (or even what it needs to be to be a top corner). If this happens, as a couple people said shortly after he was hurt, it might just make sense to pencil Dunta in as a free safety when he returns, allowing him to play the ball and still knock the piss out of people, but without expecting him to also turn and run with the Reggie Waynes of the world. In such a scenario, obviously that second corner position is an issue. I’m just not sure it is an issue to address via the draft.

Predicted answer to the question: I think Dunta returns in mid-October and, by November, is in “playing shape.” He might be slightly slowed, but any conversion of him to safety would be in 2009 at the earliest.

2. What is the 2008 contribution from Charles Spencer likely to be?

The Facts: If it seems like a really loooooong time since Spencer got hurt, you are not imagining things. He had surgery on the broken leg on September 18, 2006, meaning that 103 weeks will have passed between that date and opening day 2008. Now, of course, the good news is that there was some talk and hope going into 2007 Camp that Spencer would play at some point this past year. While that didn’t happen (obviously), the team website reports that Barbaro is expected to participate in the team’s offseason conditioning program.

To have been cleared for such workouts, Spencer’s rehab would have to be completed to his personal physician’s satisfaction and he would have to have been evaluated by the team doctor. So, apparently, 2 out of 2 medical professionals agree that Spencer is healthy enough for NFL workouts. That’s a start. Much like with Dunta, however, there is no way of knowing short of seeing Spencer play whether he was able to rehab to the level of an NFL left tackle.

Also similar to the Dunta situation, if Spencer does not have the quickness and explosiveness needed to take on professional defensive ends, the team is not without options. Fred Weary is a free agent and Chester Pitts was less than stellar for much of the year, so moving Spencer to a guard spot is certainly a possibility. Given his bulk and athleticism (6-5, 350 compared to 6-4, 307 for Weary and 6-2, 320 for Pitts), lining him up beside Eric Winston or a real–read: not Ephraim Salaam–left tackle would certainly be an asset to our running game (unless it is foolishly decided by the powers above that we are going to convert to a pure zone blocking scheme).

Predicted answer to the question: I think that Spencer will be at 100% of whatever his post-surgery ability is and that Kubiak will give him every chance to win back the LT spot. For better or worse, unless Spencer is visibly way too slow, has some sort of major surgery-related setback, or Jake Long/Sam Baker falls to us at 18, I’m guessing that Spencer is our guy going into next season.

3. Is Travis Johnson going to be on the 2008 Texans?

Facts: Travis is a loud-mouthed, under achieving jerk. While his taunting of Trent Green was hilarious (to me), his play has never been such that we can absorb his stupid penalties and brain farts.

Prediction: This organization values “character” and “appearances” more than just about any team ever, so I really can’t see how Travis is on this roster come September. He will be gone either through trade (if we can find a sucker) or outright release closer to June 1, either of which is fine because we need a real nose tackle anyway.

4. Which of our free agents are going to be re-signed?

Facts: The following are my predicted fates for the unrestricted free agents:

  • Roc Alexander–gone w/ no offer
  • Charlie Anderson–signed
  • Kevin Barry–gone w/ no offer Oops.
  • Mark Bruener–gone? retired? neither?
  • Danny Clark–signed
  • Andre’ Davis–signed
  • Ron Dayne–signed
  • Will Demps–signed
  • Glenn Earl–gone w/no offer
  • Von Hutchins–gone b/c offer withdrawn after Wynn signs
  • ND Kalu–signed
  • Cedric Killings–gone (retired)
  • Jason Simmons–gone w/ no offer
  • Matt Turk–signed
  • Fred Weary–gone b/c unable to perform in 2008
  • Dexter Wynn–signed

And for the restricted free agents:

  • CC Brown–signed
  • Anthony Maddox–signed
  • Jerome Mathis–gone b/c he’s a fragile wuss
  • Scott Jackson–signed

Quick Review:

Unrestricted Free Agents have four or more seasons of service and have reached the end of their contract. They are free to sign with any club through the first day of the first scheduled NFL training camp. After that, their exclusive rights revert to their original club (if that club made a June 1 tender to these players) and that team has until the Tuesday after the 10th week of the season to sign the player. If the player does not sign, he must continue to sit out the rest of the season.

Restricted Free Agents have completed three accrued seasons of service and have reached the end of their contracts. They have received offers from their old clubs, but can negotiate with any team until April 21. If a new team’s offer is accepted, the old club has the right to match the offer and keep the player. If they do not match the offer, the old team might receive a compensatory draft pick (subject to how much the new team’s offer was).

Notes regarding predicted answer to the question: I have been going back and forth on whether they will sign Mark Bruener. He’s a great run blocker, but he’s old as hell, so it wouldn’t shock me to see them carry Joel Dreessen if they want a third TE or for them to keep Bruener because they release Putzier. I think the Von Hutchins/Dexter Wynn thing comes down to who signs first and, god, I hope it’s Wynn. I think Demps wins out over Glenn Earl and I think that is a good thing. Finally, I think they keep Turk for another year unless someone releases a top-tier punter for some odd reason.

5. Which free agents from other teams are we looking at?

Facts: We have a better free agent budget than in some recent offseasons, but we are still not free and clear of some of the dead money (Domanick Davis Williams, anyone?) Keeping in mind the overriding philosophy of not over-spending on big names and putting character at the forefront of any player evaluation, here are some names at key positions that I could see us considering (my favorite at each position is linked to player info):

RB–Musa Smith, Derrick Ward, LaBrandon Toefield, Michael Bennett, and Justin Fargas. Notable omissions–Michael Turner (price), Julius Jones (not good)

DE–Marques Douglas, Bobby McCary, Travis LaBoy. Notable omissions–Jared Allen (character, price), Justin Smith (price)

DT–Ethan Kelley, Isaac Sopoaga. (This position is likely better filled through the draft) Notable omissions–Albert Haynesworth (character, price), Pat Williams (I was an idiot and overlooked his extension signed in September, so he’s not a free agent like I had been saying)

S–Gibril Wilson, OJ Atogwe, Mike Doss. (This position is extremely thin in free agency this year) Notable omission–Ken Hamlin (slight character concerns, overpriced due to Pro Bowl)

CB–Keith Smith, Domonique Foxworth, Nnamdi Asomugha. (Yes, I realize Asomugha’s predicted price tag, but if the team thinks Dunta will not be back in 2008 or will not be back to his old self, I think Smithiak realizes the value of a shutdown corner. Plus, I am hoping that his low INT total this year will temper the cost.) Notable omission–Asante Samuel (will think he’s worth too much and won’t talk to smaller-market teams)

OT–Jordan Gross, Stacey Andrews, Adrian Jones. Notable omissions–Flozell Adams (age), Cory Lekkerkerker (not enough Ks for jersey if he’s signed)

6. Which role players/reserves from this year played well enough to challenge for an expanded role next year?

Facts: The injuries to 94.35% of our roster this season gave us an extended look at some guys who under normal circumstances would have gotten nothing but scout team and special teams reps. Honestly, this was the one silver lining to come out of the bubonic plague that struck our locker room.

Not counting free agent guys like Andre Davis and Charlie Anderson, the three guys who jump to mind are Earl Cochran, Kasey Studdard, and Zac Diles. Last one first, Kubiak said recently that Diles had shown an ability to possibly play the other LB positions, so I could see him getting a chance to earn the SLB position in camp next year. This is not ideal–I’d much rather have a pure SLB over there–but if we can’t resign Charlie Anderson and Danny Clark, it might not be the worst thing to happen. Cochran showed a real nose for the ball every time he got in there and he even earned a starting role for the last game of the season. Studdard is a coaching staff favorite and showed real potential on the interior.

Predicted answer to the question: If the team is able to get a big nose tackle either through the draft or through free agency, it would not shock me to see Cochran given a chance at the starting defensive end gig next summer. I like the guy, so this would not bother me. Diles’ opportunity to earn a starting role is going to be limited to a total departure of the other SLBs on the roster or the untimely death of DeMeco Ryans. Finally, Studdard should be in line to compete for an OG position, especially if Spencer is playing OT. There’s also a chance that Brandon Harrison or Brandon Frye could compete, but, again, that is going to depend more on who leaves this offseason than what either actually did during the 2007 campaign.

7. Which starters–other than Travis Johnson–played poorly enough to “earn” their outright releases?

Facts: Anthony Weaver is the highest-paid player on this team, yet he was not even among the five best DEFENSIVE players we had this year. That is unacceptable. Shawn Barber started off fine, but injury derailed him. Still, that might be enough to earn a ticket out. Ahman Green I cannot discuss without getting angry. DeMarcus Faggins should lead this list, but he seems to have some sort of soft spot in the hearts of the leadership. Jeb Putzier…I’m pretty sure he is still on the team, though you wouldn’t know it by watching the last 8 games. Jordan Black was atrocious from day 1. Mike Flanagan apparently subscribed to the Jordan Black newsletter. Finally, Michael Boulware was decent on special teams, but horrid in coverage. If you listen real closely, you can hearing him whiffing on another assignment as I write this.

Obviously, there are salary cap implications for cutting any of these guys. Based on the best numbers I could find, the cap hit for each guy would be as follows (and remember that you can split guys cut on June 1 over two seasons as well as 2 guys cut prior to June 1 but designated as such):

  • Weaver: $8.1MM
  • Barber: $1.4MM
  • Green: $3.75MM
  • Faggins: $425K
  • Putzier: $950K
  • Black: $900K
  • Boulware: $0 (unless there are some hidden bonuses that I missed)
  • Flanagan: $1MM
  • (Johnson: $2.7MM)

Keeping Weaver is going to cost us $6.2MM against the cap, so it depends entirely on whether losing him is worth roughly $2MM plus whatever his replacement costs. Then again, if he is one of the June 1 guys, you are saving money ($4.05MM vs. 6.2MM) in the short term. Knowing this, I think he’s either gone or will be “asked” to restructure his deal. Same deal with Green, though I say it is less likely that he is given the chance to restructure because he is cheaper to cut than to keep ($3.75MM vs. 5.1MM). Deciding whether to keep the others listed here depends less on dollars and cents and more on long-term planning for the franchise.

Predicted answer to the question: Like I said, I think Weaver is either not a Texan or is not under the same contract come September, but I am betting it is the latter. I think Green is giving his walking papers, which he will carry with a limp. Faggins stays around be he’s cheap, they like him for some reason, and because God likes to torture me like that from time to time. Putzier…I’m going back and forth on. I think he’s gone if they keep Bruener and vice versa. Boulware and Flanagan are done. Barber stays because he’s versatile and is good leadership for some of the younger ‘backers.

*****

So, about 2700 words later, there you have it. One obsessive-compulsive fan’s look at the background questions that have to be answered before we can form a coherent draft strategy. I’m sure I missed something in there.

.500

Ladies and gentlemen, allow me to introduce your non-losing Houston Texans.  There were a lot of statements made in this game, both good and bad. At the end of the day, however, the fact that we won our eighth game overshadows every single thing I am about to write.

  • Dear Texans Fans, You’re welcome. Love, Andre Davis. Seriously…that was amazing. Hell, it was Hester-esque. Between what he offered as a WR when Andre Johnson was out, how well he played on punt coverage (highly underrated), and his contributions as a kick returner, we would be ridiculously stupid not to sign him to a multi-year deal. As an added bonus, signing him means we don’t even have to consider re-signing Jerome Mathis, which is good if only because Mathis might hurt himself signing the contract.
  • Dear Matt, How’s that for “not good?” Love, Darius Walker. I apologize for doubting you. No, you might not have the fastest top-end in town and, no, you might not be able to get the corner against a fast defense, but you have fantastic vision and you don’t dance around behind the line. Like I said over in the Game Thread, it seems like Walker hits his top speed–whatever that may be–instantly. So, what he might lack as an open field runner, he more than makes up for between the tackles. Fact: If you take away his 41 yard run, Walker still averaged 5 yards per carry; if you include that run, he averaged 8.6. Nice.
  • Dear Petey Faggins, I don’t think your pre-game pointers helped. Love, Von Hutchins. Wow…as surprisingly good as Walker was, that’s how shockingly bad Hutchins looked. It got to the point early on that I half expected Garrard to come to the line, find Hutchins, and start laughing before the snap. Even Tina Turner wasn’t abused like that.
  • Dear Von Hutchins, Thanks for the opportunity! Love, Dexter Wynn. Much like how Kubiak pulled Faggins out of the Atlanta game to try and stop the bleeding, Wynn replaced Hutchins for the most part after the second TD that Hutchins coughed up. Dexter looked surprisingly solid, especially when you consider the size he was giving up to the Jacksonville WRs. He wasn’t perfect and you sure wouldn’t want to go into the season with him as your CB2, but he might have gotten a leg up on Hutchins in the “which one will we re-sign” battle (both are unrestricted free agents).
  • Dear Sage Rosenfels, About that whole trading-for-you thing…nevermind. Love, NFL GMs with QB Problems. Short of sporting bouffant hair and wearing white gloves, I don’t know that it would be possible for a player to damage his trade value more than Sage has the last two weeks. While he wasn’t atrocious or anything to day, he wasn’t anywhere approaching “good.” Even the TD pass to Daniels was on a poor throw and required a great grab by the big TE. Of course, he later felt the need to hit an opposing DB between the numbers for his weekly INT. He’s still a good backup, but any talk (by me) of getting a third-round or better pick for him or any talk (by others) about a QB controversy needs to be put on hold. Let’s all take a deep breath and move on.
  • Dear NFL QBs, Be afraid in 2008. Very afraid. Love, Mario Williams. No, our resident sackmaster didn’t get the one he needed to pass Patrick Kearney, but Jacksonville was clearly concerned with him from the first snap. This was some of the most blatant holding of Mario we’ve seen this year, but the refs seem to have already put him in the category of elite pass rushers that can be held with near-impunity. I don’t think it’s a stretch to expect at least 18 sacks out of Mario next season. Reggie who?
  • Dear Richard Smith, How did you manage to make Quinn Gray look like Peyton Manning? Love, Texans Fans. Here’s a thought–and I think we’ve been over this before–but when your secondary is getting worked like Jenna Jameson’s labia and you are letting a backup QB throw for four TDs, maybe you shouldn’t completely abandon the blitz. Because, maybe I am crazy, but it seems like you would have seen over the past month how much better this entire defensive unit is when you are blitzing and you would have used that knowledge against the Jags so they didn’t pick you apart with their gigantic WRs against your patchwork defensive backfield. Just sayin’.
  • Dear Rick Smith, Please get rid of Richard Smith before he forces me to climb a clock tower and start shooting student nurses. Love, Matt.
  • Dear Rick Smith, I think I deserve more than $1.3MM next season. Love, Ron Dayne. The Trayne ended this game with 88 yards (4.2/carry) and 2 more TDs, giving him a team-high 773 yards (career high) and 6 rushing TDs. He also added career highs in receptions (17) and receiving yards (112). If we can get him back for any combination of bonus and salary under $2MM/year, I think we have to.

Other tidbits

  • When he wasn’t busy misidentifying Texans or mispronouncing names, Dick Enberg mentioned that the forty-two points scored today was a new franchise record. This breaks the old record of 34, set against Carolina in week 3. Ladies and gentlemen, we have an offense.
  • If I told you before the season started that Darius Walker would have more rushing yards than Ahman Green and that the two of them combined would have fewer than Ron Dayne, what would you have guessed our record to be?
  • Chad Stanley, 2006: 41.6 yards per punt, 36.7 net. Matt Turk, 2007: 41.7 yards per punt, 37.9 net. Yet, despite their similarities, there were only a couple games where Turk worried me, as opposed to sixteen where I was concerned by Stanley. Weird.
  • We won despite being outgained by 91 yards and having 3:34 less in time of possession. God bless Andre Davis.
  • 8-8. Never has symmetry looked so nice.

History is the distillation of rumour.

I’m guessing we all sort of assumed as much but, in case you had any doubts, Kubes said yesterday that Sage Rosenfels will start Sunday’s finale.

I’m going to start Sage. Sage will be our starter going into the game. It will be a game-time decision on Matt on whether he’ll be our backup or the third. Over the course of the next couple of days, we’ll see.

Possible Translation: Sage’s trade value took a hit last week, so I am going to run him back out there, hope they play their second-team defense, and give him a chance to bring that stock back up. Also, I’d be a fool if I let Matt Schaub back out there before his shoulder was 100%. Since I already managed to get Andre Johnson hurt this year, I think I’ll pass on taking another stupid risk. Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to go remind everyone that Mario was the correct pick.

In all seriousness, though (or at least as much seriousness I can muster), this is the right move. As much as we would like to win this game, it would almost be a pyhrric victory if Matt did further damage to the separated shoulder (or suffered another concussion). Besides, right now, at this exact moment in time, I can’t honestly look any of you in the virtual eye and say that starting Matt gives us any sort of increased likelihood of winning.

Which is NOT to say that I don’t still think Schaub is the guy, both in terms of short-term competition with Sage and long-term health of the franchise.

Unless I am missing something, we have four answers to the question of “What about Sage?” 1. We can hold on to him, content in knowing that we have “The Best Backup in Football” should Schuab get injured. 2. We can take advantage of his reputation as “The Best Backup in Football” and use it to net ourselves players or draft picks to fill more pressing needs. 3. We can make him the starter based on what he’s done this year as compared to Schaub. 4. We can hold on to him and let him and Schaub battle it out next summer because we believe both of them are capable of being an NFL starting QB.

Numbers 1 and 2 both have their merits, but we’ll deal with them in a moment. To my way of thinking, #3 is asinine unless you really, REALLY believe that we messed up by trading for Schaub, which is a pretty hard position to defend and is generally shared only by the same sort of people that believe Tony Hollings was a smart pick. Number 4, though…that’s what this discussion is really about, isn’t it? Because there are intelligent people who honestly believe that Sage is capable of being the starter and that whichever one of the two QBs who wins the battle can be the future of this organization. To those people, I have to say that I respectfully disagree. (To the people in the #3 camp, I disagree, but there is no respect involved.)

I’ve said it before, but there absolutely had to be a reason that Matt Schaub was the most sought backup QB in the league before last offseason. True, he did not have much of a body of work to support that lofty position, but NFL heads had to have seen something they liked in him to drive his pricetag up as high as it went. And in his first two games of this season, when the team was reasonably healthy and there was a semblance of a running game, many fans (myself included) were thrilled about how great the Matt Schaub era was going to be. So, yeah, there have been flashes of starting-caliber ability from Matt. Additionally, red zone INTs notwithstanding, there is no substantial body of evidence that suggests Matt isn’t capable of being a starting QB.

On the other hand, for all Sage has done this year, can we really overlook the fact that in four years of mini-camps and training camps (not to mention the 13 games had played in) he couldn’t beat out such Dolphin luminaries as Jay Fielder, Ray Lucas, Brian Griese, AJ Feeley, and Gus F