DGDB&D: a Texans blog.

Kickoff - “Total Randomness” Edition

Oct 23, 2008 H/T Eric, I was told there would be no math, Kickoff, Non-Texan stuff, Stats

On offense.  Hooston Texan over at Texans Talk has a nice breakdown of how our offense is scoring, scoring well, and scoring without much help on the other side of the ball.  An excerpt:

Our offense is getting next to no help from the defense and special teams in getting points. In my research, I looked at the scoring drives for the 22 teams that totaled more than 124 points (obviously, the other 9 could not have more “unassisted” points if they had fewer than 124 total points), and every one of those teams had at least 13 more “assisted” points than we have. Except one: Dallas also had only 16. Imagine how many more points we would have scored with an occasional turnover or long return. Ugh.

In other news, the sky is blue. Following up on last night’s Owen “Elvis” Daniels post, here’s something from the mothership about how Daniels really is becoming one of the best TEs in football.  As if you didn’t already know that.

I’m not leaving ’til I get my stuff! Marroncito is giving away free tickets to this weekend’s game.  All you have to do is bare a little bit of your soul.

Finally. Unrelated to football, but Dave and Lee have moved up to the big time.  The Dream Shake is now a part of SBN.  1. Move to SBN.  2. ????.  3. Profit!

Pop Quiz

Aug 27, 2008 Had to post something, Stats, Suck it bitchez, Teams that aren't the Texans

Compare and Contrast the following two teams’ first six seasons. Remember to show your work.  Bonus points will be given for using the data contained in this table to refute and/or mock certain fans and national sportswriters.

Texans by the numbers

Aug 21, 2008 2008 Season, Andre Johnson, Awesomeness, David Anderson's Dance Party, Hi Steve!, K-Dub, RB free-for-all, Stats

Just in case you were wondering, here are some preseason statistics for your Houston Texans.  Grains of salt optional, but recommended.

QB

Matt Schaub: 18-21 (85.7%), 10.3 YPC, 2 TD, 0 INT, 0 Sack, 141.3 rating
S. Rosenfels: 16-23 (69.6%), 10.0 YPC, 1 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sack, 116.4 rating

Analysis: Ladies and gentlemen, Matt Schaub is your QB now and for the foreseeable future.  Even without context, he has been better than Sage.  Then, once you factor in that Matt’s passes have come against mainly first-stringers and Sage’s have come against mainly second-stringers, the distinction becomes even more clear.  Schaub absolutely put on a clinic against New Orleans.  Here’s hoping he keeps it going against Dallas.

RB

Steve Slaton: 24 carries, 94 yards (3.9/carry), 1 TD, 0 fumbles
Chris Taylor: 22 carries, 53 yards (2.4/carry), 1 TD, 0 fumbles
Darius Walker: 8 carries, 29 yards (3.6/carry), 0 TD, 0 fumbles
Chris Brown:    8 carries, 19 yards (2.4/carry), 0 TD, 0 fumbles
Ahman Green:  0 anything because he’s a big ol’ mangina.

Analysis: I included the fumbles just because that was one of two knocks against Slaton.  The other was that he was too small, though, as people have noted, he seems to have added around 15 lbs of muscle to his frame since the Combine.  And, if you watched the second half of the Saints game, Slaton was the MAN.  His TD run involved slipping one tackle, then lowering his shoulder and driving for an additional two yards.  I’d like to see him named starter from the jump, but regardless, if he’s not starting by week 3, I’ll be shocked.  Also, Ahman Green and Chris Brown…ewww.

WR

D. Anderson: 9 catches, 128 yards (14.2 YPC), 1 TD
Kevin Walter: 7 catches, 105 yards (15.0 YPC), 1 TD
Andre’ Davis: 4 catches, 46 yards (11.5 YPC), 0 TD
Jacoby Jones: 2 catches, 61 yards (30.5 YPC), 0 TD

Analysis: Looking at that list, two things jump out at me:  (1) Matt Schaub’s numbers are even better when you realize he hasn’t been able to throw to Andre Johnson a single time this preseason, and (2) our passing attack has the potential to be ridiculously good this year.  When you add in AJ, you have four receivers (plus Jacoby) who all bring a little something different to the mix and who create all sorts of matchup problems for opposing coverages.  The real question is whether we run four wide more often than last year (when I believe we were 30th or 31st in the league in number of plays) and if we are more efficient in the shotgun spread formations (where we were not very good at all last season).  If Slaton gives us merely as much as Ron Dayne gave us last year—which I don’t think is asking a lot—I think the answer to both of those questions is yes.

Your “Vince Young, Intangibly Great QB” moment of hilarity

Aug 15, 2008 Intangibly Great, Logo by Chris, Preseason 2008, Stats, Teams that aren't the Texans, Vince Young can't read this post

Oh, yes…it’s back for another year.

vs. Oakland: 4-13, 37 yards.  0 TD.  0 INT.  Sacked once.

But at least he rushed for four yards!

Morlon Revisited, Some Housekeeping Notes, and a Fantasy Update

Aug 7, 2008 2008 Season, Bad Idea Jeans, Douchebag Tom, Morlon Greenwood, Stats

Back in the comments to this post, I wrote the following in response to socctty’s post:

Thanks. I was actually wondering what the FO numbers were. I want to respond to this in a new post, but that will likely be later today.

Well, replace “today” with “this summer” and here we are.  Rather than just drone by myself, though, I emailed with socctty, posing my own questions regarding the numbers.  Here’s the back and forth.  First, my email.

First off, like I think I mentioned, I admit that the FO numbers do not look good for Morlon.  And I love what the FO project (for lack of a better term) is about; the changes sabermetrics has brought to baseball analysis would be more than welcome in the football world.  That said, and at the risk of sound disingenuous (or, worse, sounding like one of those “VY is better than stats” fans), I do have a couple questions/concerns about FO’s methodology, at least as it pertains to defensive players.

Let me back up, though.  FO is based on “The Hidden Game of Football,” right?  Well, it’s been a while since I read that, but I do recall a large portion of the beginning of that book talking about how football differed from baseball, in that the latter was linear and each action was more or less independent of other actions.  I believe the quote was “baseball is a thread; football is a fabric.”  Now, I do think that FO has done a great job of extrapolating from the lessons of that book and creating ways to better evaluate certain players and teams as a whole, but here’s concern #1:

While people who touch the ball (”skill” positions and returners) have enough measurable attributes to allow for in-depth analysis (yards, TDs, what-have-you), I feel like defensive players, especially in the running game, are hard to measure.  As someone said in the comments to that post, if a run is supposed to go outside, but Morlon seals the edge and then DeMeco blows the guy up as he’s looking for a new hole, does FO account for that?  Can anyone really account for that sort of thing?  Second, if Morlon is responsible for the running back in a passing route (fairly common for his position) and the QB decides to run left, Morlon can’t break coverage until the QB crosses the line of scrimmage, so it is going to be pretty hard for him to stop someone like Vince before the QB gets 4.5 yards (success on first down).  How is that accounted for?

And, since I am asking so many questions of you, I’ll try to answer some of the ones you posted.

“Shouldn’t a weak side backer have more than 1 sack, 1 hit, and 3 hurries on the season?”  In theory, yes, though that as tempered by (a) Richard Smith never, ever blitzing with Morlon (something I screamed about all last season) and (b) in a non-blitz situation, getting to the QB is going to be Greenwood’s third responsibility on every play.  First, read the fullback and pick up the run.  Second, pick up the FB or RB in the flat or in the short zone in the passing game.  Third, if neither the first or second option applies, get after the QB.  Without looking, I can’t know for sure, but I imagine the third scenario doesn’t happen a whole lot.  Also, when the RB flares to the strongside, if Morlon reads the play correctly from the snap, he’s going to cut straight across the field, behind his own D-line, rather than try to get the QB before a dump pass and then have to chase the RB from behind.

“Why was he targeted so many pass plays?” Because the way he’s used in our system, he’s covering as described above as well as filling the middle zone when DeMeco blitzes.  It would be odd if Greenwood didn’t have the most passes thrown at him of the three LB positions.

One final thought:  Including Thompson and Bentley in the SAM statistics for last year doesn’t work because they were both playing for other teams.  If you replace them with Diles and anyone else who got snaps over there, do we know what the numbers were?

Socctty’s reply:

You know what, that’s a good point with the “sealing the edge” scenario. In that sort of instance, I’m not sure how Football Outsiders would score it. Generally speaking though, they consider the strong side of the field the SAM linebacker’s responsibility. So when a running back blows past him and gets tackled by DeMeco 6 yards later, they credit DeMeco with the tackle and “credit” Morlon with allowing 6 yards on the play (unless he was taken out by a pulling guard or something).

For a lot of the metrics, you’re right that these statistics aren’t always applicable - it would be best to compare Morlon to other SAM backers in 4-3 defenses, and at that point you start limiting the pool of players you can compare him to. It’s probably not fair to compare him to WILL or MIKE backers as a hard and fast rule. Nevertheless, tackling is a basic skill any linebacker should have, and when they rank in the 90s out of 99 total players, it doesn’t reflect well on them.

In virtually every metric FO uses to score linebackers, Morlon scored poorly last year, so it’s hard to believe that there’s some unique skill he has that isn’t being measured in a given statistic. He has a successful play on passes (previously defined) only 38% of the time (average is around 50%; he scored 80th amongst LBs). He was the worst in the league amongst qualifying players on running plays in Run Stop Rate, and 96th in the league on rushing yards allowed per play. So it’s not as if there’s some vague, obscure, fluke category that he’s scoring poorly in. It’s pretty much across the board.

What’s interesting is that the year before last, Morlon did pretty well for himself. (Looking back at Pro Football Prospectus 2007 was interesting; at the end of this I’ll type up some of the things they said) Check out this attached web page for a table I put together. As you’ll see, Morlon regressed across the board in every single statistical category.

As for a “control” player, DeMeco was virtually identical in every single category from 2007 to 2008. This tells us that the statistics are not prone to random variations, and that they reflect players’ performances pretty accurately. Morlon stank it up last year.

Now, we can attribute Morlon’s stats to a lot of things: Smith deciding blitzing was out of fashion; something to do with Travis Johnson getting more reps; Smith switching to more zone coverage after Dunta went down… we could go on. But I think all of that adds up to a lot of apologizing. In the end, I think we have a 30 year old linebacker who was, at his best, average, and now he’s 30. Maybe it was an off-year. I think it’s a sign of things to come.

All that being said, though, there is of course value in what passes the “eye” test. These stats only reflect part of what the game charters’ eyes have seen. We have to assume the linebackers coach and the defensive co-ordinator and the head coach and the general manager see something they like in the guy, so I’m not ready to start lumping him with the Petey Faggins of the world. I won’t start lumping him with the “most underrated players in the league” crowd, either.

PFP2007 notes on the Texans (this was going in to the 2007 year):
- With regards to sacks: “Don’t be discouraged - every other number says (Mario) Williams had an excellent rookie season.” They go on to cite how he was a beast against the run, hiding the horrible performance of the DTs.
- “Williams’s only weakness is that he does not have Julius Peppers-like versatility in pass coverage, something the Texans exacerbated by getting too cute with zone blitzes.”
- On the LB corps: “Ryans was like a piece of filet mignon sandwiched between two slices of moldy pumpernickel.” They said more or less the same thing in PFP2008.
- “The Houston secondary is a festival of replacement-level talent with one bright exception, cornerback Dunta Robinson… as for the rest of these veterans, there’s no reason to waste a paragraph delineating shades of mediocrity.”
- “The Texans drafted cornerback Fred Bennett in the fourth round, and he has extreme strengths and weaknesses. He’s a tall, athletic leaper with great cover skills, but he doesn’t like contact and can’t tackle.”

This year they rave about a possible Okam-Okoye combo.

Me again:

Interesting point regarding Morlon’s slide from 2006 to 2007, if only because he appeared (again, it’s that “eye” test) to play better last year than he had the year before.  I do think you are on to something with the idea that what we got out of him over the past two years is likely the high point, which is why I’ve been fine with the idea of grooming Adibi to take that role.  And, really, if Adibi overtakes him this year based on performance, I’ll be fine with it.

Yeah, I was overreaching by lumping him into the “most underrated in the league” category.  I admit that.  A more accurate assessment would have been “underappreciated by his own fans.”

I guess my biggest problem with relying on the numbers, even the more logical ones created by FO and guys like KC Joyner, goes back to my initial point that it is inherently difficult (at best) to quantify the performance of guys who aren’t carrying the ball.  The ball dictates evaluation of those guys, right (i.e. the running back DVOA is not based so much on how he picks up blocks or carries out a play-fake, but totally in his performance when he has the ball, right?)  Even when you break the defense down and watch each play, without knowing the actual defensive call, it is hard to say whether a guy was successful in what he did.  For all we know, a WLB could be credited with a failure because the ball was rushed to his zone, even in a situation where the WLB’s responsibility on that particular play wasn’t that zone.

Granted, those situations are probably rare, and maybe they are so few as to not impact the overall numbers.  I’m speculating here, mainly just for the sake of playing Devil’s Advocate.

The other question I had was whether the methodology seems to favor or disfavor certain positions?  Like, for example, how are Lance Briggs and Ernie Sims (the two “playmaking” WLBs people mentioned) compared to DeMeco or Patrick Willis?  My guess is that MLBs are always going to rate higher, especially in the run game, because there’s not much room for a running back to get around them when he comes up the middle.  On the other hand, if the O-line seals the end, so that the RB winds up one on one with a WLB, the RB has some room to operate.  Dunno…just more thinking out loud.

And his final reply:

The DVOA numbers only count towards players with the ball or players for whom the ball was intended. And things are taken into consideration, such as receivers who give up on a ball - each throw, for incompletion is marked with a “why” (Hit in Motion, Tipped Ball, Overthrown, etc.)

However, they also score things like blown blocks for running backs in blitz-pickup.

Anyway your point probably does hold some water: there are stats that they keep that are more valid than other stats they keep, and at any rate, they should (like any stat) be viewed in their proper context. One could argue that the FO stats’ main benefits are that they inherently have more context in and of themselves. But yes, there are simply things that they can’t measure.

With regard to the defense’s call, you can actually tell a lot. You can see if they are in cover-1 or cover 2 before the snap; you can of course see if they are in a 3-4 or a 4-3; before the snap you can get a pretty good idea if it’s zone or man, and after the snap there is no doubt (with a hat-tip to TiVo).

Keep in mind that defensive players are never measured in DVOA; only the defense as a whole is.

As far as WLB versus MLB vs LILB-in-a-3-4, etc, as far as pure numbers (counting stats) go, it’s probably best to compare WLB to WLB and LILB in a 3-4 to other LILB in a 3-4. But generally speaking, you can look at rate (or percentage) stats to glean a comparison, provided that the sample size is significant enough. 99th out of 99 isn’t probably very far away from 78th out of 99, but when you show up in the 90s out of 99 in two different statistical categories, and pretty much in the lower third in every other category, it doesn’t look too good for you.

Reading over the 2007 book, I found this nugget also: “Screen passes and dumpoffs are marked as Uncovered unless a defender (normally a linebacker) is obviously shadowing that specific receiver on the other side of the line of scrimmage.”

Soooo…yeah.  I hope that sheds a little light on the sabermetric side of the discussion.  Feel free to chime in with your own thoughts/questions/hate mail in the comments.

**************************************

Now, for the housekeeping:

1. Based on discussions like the above, bfd and I have added socctty to the DGDB&D family.  I have no idea how much he plans to post or what topics he might cover, but I am really excited about the added statistical analysis.  The goal from the start with this blog has been two-fold—entertain and offer some info/analysis that you can’t get elsewhere.  This addition is a huge step in the second direction.

2. In the spirit of the above, I thought I would mention that we are always willing (hoping?) to publish Texans-related stuff written by anyone (other than Douchebag Tom), provided it meets one of the two qualities above (the whole entertain/inform thing).  It’s not an open audition or anything, but if you want to write a guest post, hammer something out and send it to one of us.  We can’t make you famous, we offer no pay, and we can’t promise that people won’t make fun of you in the comments, but…uh…there might be some reason why it still sounds fun.

3. I am leaving tomorrow morning for a weekend get-a-way with the wifey.  So, if you want to read anything new, pester bfd.  I’m assuming he’s not planning on running a liveblog for this game, but I do want to use the CoverItLive software for regular season liveblogs (the same setup we used during the draft).  Two questions: 1. Is there enough interest that it won’t just be me and grungedave making the same jokes every week?  2. Any music requests?

***************************************

DGDB&D Fantasy Football Update.

Currently on board: Me, Lee, grungedave, socctty, DisplaceTexan, Dan B., DeMecoShall…, and abumnamedPaul.  That’s 8.  Am I missing anyone?  What days of the week are best for a live draft?

Run, fool!

Aug 5, 2008 2007 Season, Huh?, I was told there would be no math, Stats

So, I was killing time just a few minutes ago and I started looking at random Texans’ stats.  Get this:

When the Texans rushed to the left last year, which they did 91 times, they averaged 3.7/carry.

When the Texans rushed up the middle, which they did 114 times, they averaged 3.7/carry.

But, when the Texans rushed to the right, which they did only 42 times, they averaged 5.1/carry.

OK…sure…you generally expect that a team will do a little better running to the strong side.  That makes sense, right?  But here’s where it gets weird.  The left-run average? 25th in the league.  The middle-run avearge? 4th in the league.  The right-run average? 11th in the league.

What does all this mean?  I dunno.  Nada, I suppose.  It just struck me as note-worthy that our much-maligned running game was actually well above average on 156 of our 247 carries. (Here is where one of the 50 engineers who reads this blog should chime in with some better analysis.  Lawyers don’t do math.  Well, other than grungedave, but he’s odd.)

Kickoff (Two-A-Days Version)

Aug 5, 2008 2008 Season, 2008 Training Camp, Amobi Okoye is an adult, Big dudes doing the little things, Kickoff, Stats, Uncategorized

A few afternoon Texans notes:

Vote for the greatest All-Time Texan.  Candidates are Mario Williams, Andre Johnson, DeMeco Ryans, Matt Schaub, and Domanick Williams nee Davis.  The lack of Jamie Sharper or Dunta Robinson, both of whom are better choices than Schaub or Williams, bothers me.

Amobi Okoye fully expects to be dominant this year.  “Hawaii is my goal and it should be everybody’s goal, and in doing that I have to get at least 15 [sacks],” Okoye said. “I know that’s a lot for a defensive tackle, but I think it can get done. I know it can get done.”  Now, while I don’t think he’ll get that many sacks (Darnell Dockett had the most of any DT last year with 9 and Tommie Harris, whose playing style one could argue Okoye’s most closely resembles, had 8), I admire that kind of enthusiasm and confidence.  And, who knows, maybe the kid knows something we don’t and he’ll post a Warren Sapp (16.5) or John Randle (15.5) season.

So…what you’re saying is that DeMeco is even better than we realized?  Interesting article from the Cowtown Morning News regarding how tackles are tabulated in the NFL.  Apparently, the Texans are one of a very, very small group of teams who accept the press box tackle numbers as “official.”  Most other teams have their assistant coaches review the tapes on Monday and submit a new set of tackle numbers.  The problem with this, as you probably guessed, is that logical results are a rarity.  For instance, the Colts’ staff gave the team credit for 891 solo tackles…in 781 plays.  From now on, I am making up my own official tackle numbers.  DeMeco just got three in this post alone.  (Side note: Unfortunately for fantasy football players, most online games use the pressbox numbers.)

Bad Would Be An Upgrade

Aug 4, 2008 2006 Draft, Hype, I was told there would be no math, Overrated, Reggie Bush, Stats, Tremendous Busts

Courtesy of Dave, we get the following tidbit from Fatty Starbucks about everyone’s favorite punt returner:

Saturday, July 26, New Orleans Saints camp

JACKSON, Miss. — “When you look at your first two years and you see the 3.8 yards per carry, do you want to puke?” I asked Reggie Bush, who was sitting on a golf cart on the running track surrounding the football field at Millsaps College.

Bush smiled. “Well, kind of. I want nine, 10 yards a carry. But I think the difference with me this year is I’m smarter. I realize four yards is a good run sometimes. I appreciate four yards; I’m not disappointed when I get stopped after four yards.”

I have heard this before. This is what the Saints were saying going into the 2007 season, and Bush wasn’t any more explosive in his second year. The difference this year, the Saints hope, is Bush was a workout fanatic around the New Orleans complex in the offseason, with lots of the strong-burst lifting (squats, mostly) that give a back the kind of explosion through holes we haven’t seen enough of in Bush. He’s most certainly on trial, and he feels it.

“What I did in college was not a fluke,” he said. “And the NFL will not be a fluke for me either.”

OK, first things first, the article already gives Bush too much credit: he has only averaged 3.7/carry over his career, not the 3.8 the author generously gives him.  Second, being “not disappointed” after you get stopped for four yards isn’t really the best outlook a guy can have, especially when the rumor is that he is too soft to be a real running back.  After all, Ron “Meringue” Dayne averaged 4.0/carry last year and I wouldn’t go so far as to say I was thrilled with the guy.

Now, yes, I realize that Reggie is actually saying something along the lines of “if I can always get four and then get more than that from time to time, I’ll be happy.”  Fine.  Whatever.  But here’s the rub: there is NOTHING to suggest that Bush is even capable of getting to that level.

In fact, let’s take it one step further.  Let’s get crazy.  Let’s throw this statement out there and see if it floats:

Reggie Bush is an offensive liability

There.  I said it.  What?  You want proof?  Fine.  First, some numbers, as compiled by the inimitable bfd:

Basically, every time Bush touches the ball, he is hurting his team.  The only exception to this rule was as a receiver in 2006 where his 8.4 yards/catch was higher than other Saints backs.  In other words, Bush is an offensive sinkhole.

In 2006, his 3.6 yards/rush was below that of the team without him.  In addition, most of his 2006 numbers are skewed by a single game against the Giants that single-handedly raises his yards/rush by nearly .5 yards for the entire season.

In 2007, both his yards/rush and yards/catch were well below that of the rest of the Saints’ RBs.  Only Mike Karney and Drew Brees, with their 34 combined rushes, managed worse rushing totals.  On the receiving side, even Karney’s 6.0 yards/reception were better than Bush’s horrific 5.7 yards/catch.  In fact, Bush’s yards/catch of 5.7 was third worst in the league, but he received the ball as many times as the two people below him, Willis McGahee and Ryan Grant, combined.

Bush’s 3.7 yards/rush in 2007 ranks him 38th out of 49 qualifiers, but considering that Aaron Stecker and Pierre Thomas both had more yards/rush more than Bush, Bush’s poor numbers are a likely function of his suckiness moreso than issues with the line.  (On the other hand, Adrian Peterson and Ced Benson ranked 46 and 47, respectively, which means that there was probably something more than just the RB that was impacting the rushing equation in Chicago.)

Then, one must consider from where Bush is scoring.  Of Bush’s 10 rushing touchdowns, six have been from one yard out, and only 10 and 15 yard rushes—the latter being his longest—are even in double-digit yards.  Bush has four receiving touchdowns, only one of which is longer than five yards—his 61-yarder that got endless, unnecessary replays.  As a running back, Bush is showing all the explosiveness of Tom Rathman. Which is to say, none.

If Bush isn’t the worst RB in the league, his only real competition is Cedric Benson, but that could also be a matter of offensive line play.  When compared to his peers on the Saints, Bush is clearly the worst of the bunch and pretty easily an offensive black hole on the roster.  He’s the football equivalent of Neifi Perez, a player who gets too many touches for the incredible lack of skills he brings to the field.

Here’s hoping they play him more.

Indeed, brother.

“But, hold on,” some of you must be screaming.  “That’s not fair! The Saints offense as a whole was less good in 2007 than in 2006, so of course his yards/catch fell off!”

Really?  In 2006, the Saints averaged 5.8 yards/play.  In 2007, they averaged 5.5.  They did go from first to fifth in total offense, but does that really explain a drop-off from above-average receiving threat to abysmal?  I think not.

Besides, a swing of .3 yards/play is far from uncommon.  The Colts had a .4 yard drop-off last year.  The Chargers lost .7.  And so on, and so forth.  Small flutuations happen, even in the league’s best offenses.  30 yards per game (the Saints’ loss) is not a huge deal and it definitely does not explain how the World’s Greatest Weapon loses 2.7 yards/catch.

But wait, there’s more!  Some more numbers, this time courtesy of me.

Saints’ overall yards/play in 2007: 5.5
Saints’ yards/play on plays where Reggie touched the ball: 4.8
Saints’ yards/play on plays were he did not touch the ball: 5.8

Saints’ yards/carry overall: 3.7
Bush’s yards/carry overall: 3.7
Other Saints’ RBs yards/carry: 3.9

Other Saints’ yards/catch: 10.6
Saints’ yards/catch overall: 6.8
Bush’s yards/catch overall: 5.7

Filed under “Hmm, Things That Make You Go.”  OK, now I hear some of you saying that the loss of Deuce McAllister is why Bush’s yards/catch went down.  It’s some argument like “well, without Deuce in there to keep people honest, teams could key on Bush.”  Whatever you say, chief.

Oh, except for this: In 2007, when Deuce was out, Bush averaged 6.1 yards/catch.  When Deuce was in (or “loose,” if you will), even for part of the game, Bush put up 5.0 yards/catch. Not the greatest sample sizes, I know, but it still makes that Deuce argument seem questionable.

As an aside, I should throw in that the whole “teams had to account for Deuce” argument strikes me as particularly silly.  If McAllister, who averaged a whopping 4.3 yards/carry in 2006, had that much effect on the offense as a whole (and Bush in particular), don’t you think you’d see a marked drop-off in the Saints’ offensive production when Deuce didn’t play?  Yet, as we already covered, any drop-off was nigh negligible and is just as easily explained by “Reggie Bush brings everyone’s averages down.”

Also, to those who would suggest that Marques Colston’s yards/catch also dropped by 2.5 yards, so there must have been something bigger at play, I have three counter-arguments. First, Colston was an unknown when he entered the league in 2006 and, as such, he did not face CB1s on a regular basis, at least at first. By the start of 2007, he was the biggest threat (by far) in the passing game and, as such, was always defended by the opponents’ best CBs.  Second, Colston had 28 more catches in 2007, which would make it more difficult to keep up a ridiculous 14.8 yards/catch.  (Hell, Randy Moss averaged 15.2 in his record-breaking season last year. 14.8 is great. Only four WRs last season had as many catches as Colston and had a higher yards/catch.) Third, while Bush’s performance was so bad that it pulled the team’s yards/play down to 5.5 (remember, it was 5.8 when he didn’t touch the ball), the team only averaged 4.8 yards/play when Colston didn’t touch the ball, so comparing his drop to Reggie’s drop is not exactly apples-to-apples.

So, that’s it, right?

Of course not.  We would be remiss if we didn’t also throw the following numbers at you:

Reggie’s 8 total fumbles were tops among non-QBs and his 7 rushing fumbles were tops among everyone.

Reggie’s 10 dropped passes (in 12 games) tied him for third in the league (and tied him with people who played 16 games).

The claims about the Saints’ offensive lines woes are likely overblown, as they ranked between 7th and 11th overall in 2007, depending on who you ask.

Behind that line, Reggie Bush ranked 56th out of 56 according to Football Outsiders’ DPAR (Defense-Adjusted Points above Replacement). His DPAR of -8.9 means, in short, that he was worth 8.9 points less than the average NFL backup RB.

Reggie’s career-long run remains at 25 yards.  25.  Cedric Benson has a career long of 43 and he’s trying to find a job right now.  Benson also had at least one run over 30 yards every year in the league.

SO…what does all this mean?  At this point, I am not willing to go all out an call him a bust.  That said, however, I will point out that RB is generally agreed to be, by far, the easiest position to transition to from college.  DEs and QBs can take three or four years to develop (though Mario is certainly ahead of the curve), while many RBs can and do play well from the jump.  Reggie, on the other hand, has not even consistently put up numbers worthy of Blair Thomas.

His numbers do track fairly well with Eric Metcalf, however.  So he’s got that going for him.  Which is nice.

Quick Reminder

Aug 2, 2008 Poetry, Stats, Teams that aren't the Texans, Vince Young can't read this post

Radio’s career record: 17-11, 0-1 playoffs
Rex Grossman’s career record: 19-11, 2-2 playoffs

Vince “just wins games,” though, right?  Right?

All-Time Texans Team - Defense - SS

Jul 21, 2008 All-Time Texans, Awfulness, Secondary issues are primary, Stats

Continuing the series and sticking with positions that make the prospect of drinking bleach seem pleasant, let’s do the Strong Safeties.

First, the candidates:

Eric Brown
Glenn Earl
C.C. Brown

Be still, my beating heart.  Eric Brown gave us .5 sack, 1.5 INTs, 1.5 FFs, 1.5 PDs, and about 70 tackles per season in his 2 years as a starter. In two-seasons worth of starts, Earl averaged 1 sack, 1.5 INTs, .5 FF, 5 PDs, and about 70 tackles. Last year, pressed into duty as the strong safety, C.C. (whose real name is Ceandris Nehemiah, so I don’t understand the two Cs) Brown offered up 0 sacks, 1 INT, 2 FF, 3 FR, 8 PDs, and about 80 tackles. (All number via Pro-Football-Reference.com)

Hmm.

Blech.

I guess C.N. Brown wins again by default, purely on the strength of his turnover numbers and the fact that he bothered to defend some passes.

(Side note: I left Marlon McCree off the FS discussion, not that it would have changed anything.  My bad.)

Why I {heart} Morlon Greenwood

Jul 21, 2008 Demarcus Faggins sucks, Morlon Greenwood, Stats, Underrated

So, in the comments to this post, Steph (echoed by Lee) asked:

Uh, I don’t know why you love Morlon Greenwood so much. He gets a lot of tackles, (after the offensive player drags him a little bit). He has one of the largest salaries on the team, and I don’t see him even as a average linebacker in the league. Heck, some might make the argument that he isn’t even above the average for linebackers on this team.
-
I know you heart MG, and I’m only bringing this up to have a discussion of it because I’ve never understood your Greenwood love.
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Is it just the stats? Or are you seeing something in his play that is not as obvious as what you see with DeMeco. Ryans gets fat stats, but his play is so obviously outstanding when you watch it.

First things first, I want to make clear that I am not alone in my love for Morlon, nor in my assertion that he is incredibly underrated.  Along with a penchant for drinking too much, our appreciation for Greenwood is one of the things Tim and I have in common.  From BRB:

Morlon Greenwood is the most underrated defensive player in the NFL.  That’s right.  I said it.

I’ve been trying to analogize another player in MLB or the NBA to better describe the lack of credit Morlon Greenwood receives despite his stellar play.  Greenwood’s body of work this season clearly screams Pro Bowl, but he’s got no chance of actually getting a ticket to Honolulu. I’m stumped.

Morlon Greenwood was so ridiculously good yesterday (13 tackles and a sack) that he gets to be first.  Frankly, he played like DeMeco Ryans.  Which was good, because DeMeco was hampered by a bum knee and didn’t have his typical impact.  Greenwood was all over the field throughout the entire afternoon.  I’ve noted before that Morlon was quietly having a great year, though he has about as much chance as getting to Honolulu in February as I do.  In light of that, he’ll have to settle for this:  His effort against the Bucs was about as good as a linebacker can play.

Not that agreement between two idiot bloggers is dispositive of the issue, mind you.  I just wanted to make clear that I am not making stuff up or living in some hallucinogenic haze. Well, at least not with respect to the Jamaican Destroyer.  (Yes, I just made up that nickname.)

So, what makes Morlon so good?

First, Greenwood has fantastic instincts.  Not just, “oh, he’s a smart football player” type instincts, but more “damn, this dude always seems to be in the right place at the right time.”  For just one example, mainly because it was the easiest one to see on television last year, in the Arizona preseason game, he had backside contain, saw the Cards’ formation (empty backfield), saw where Petey was matched up against Edge in the slot, knew Petey was going to get beat (safe guess), and broke from his WLB position to the middle of the field to try and make the play Petey would not.  Unfortunately, Petey got roasted so badly off the line that Greenwood did not have the time to get there (the line of the scrimmage was the 5), but it was one of those plays that few WLBs would have had the presence of mind to even attempt.

Second, and more importantly, Greenwood is putting up solid numbers week in and week out while playing WLB in a 4-3 run by a man who isn’t qualified to suggest plays to you on Madden.  Is Greenwood as good as Lance Briggs?  No, of course not.  But 118 tackles, 1 sack, 4 PDs, a Forced Fumble, and an INT is a VERY productive season for a weakside linebacker, even in a system where the DC knows how to utilize all three LBs properly.  In our system?  That is a FANTASTIC year. In fact, that stat line is so good that part of me wonders why in the world we have to have this conversation.  (It is also a line so good that those who “might make the argument that he isn’t even above the average for linebackers on this team” should be dismissed as stupid.)

Overall, Greenwood has posted 112, 109, and 118 tackles, respectively, in his three seasons as a Texan.  Now, while I fully realize that tackle numbers can be inflated when the players in front of the LB suck (or, in the case of Jamie Sharper’s ridiculous numbers, when you are running a 3-4 without a real NT and EVERY play gets funneled to you), I also know that Greenwood’s numbers as a Texan are better than what Derrick Johnson has put up in KC over the same time-frame.  And, much like our line, it’s not like KC has been running a bunch of All Pros out there in front of DJ.  Additionally, when moved from the SLB to the WLB position in Miami, Greenwood posted 108 tackles there and that Miami defense ranked 8th in the league in yards allowed.  So I think it’s fair to say that Greenwood is not the “beneficiary” of poor play in front of him as much as he is just a good Weakside Linebacker.

Finally, there is the fact that Greenwood and DeMeco are like peas in a pod when it comes to film study and play.  I put this point last on purpose because I generally think chemistry is overrated.  For instance, last year, when Dunta was defending Petey as CB2, saying “I know what he’s doing over there; we work well together,” that didnt really mean much because they were on opposite sides of the field and one’s play was independent of the other 99.5% of the time.  When you are talking MLB and WLB, however, that sort of thing does matter to a certain extent.  If they are consistently on the same page and DeMeco never has to wonder if Morlon is picking up the same cues and/or if Morlon is playing his assignment correctly, then that frees DeMeco to be even more of a destructive force and lets him focus 100% of his attention elsewhere.  While I don’t think good chemistry alone would be a reason to keep him, I certainly think it is something in Greenwood’s favor.

In the end, though, it comes down to the first two points.  He has shown great instincts and quietly used those instincts and his natural ability to post a 2007 season that almost any team would be thrilled to get from their WLB.  Did it come at a hefty price tag?  Perhaps.  But at least the money spent on Morlon was paid for top-notch play.  Unlike, say, the checks that Anthony Weaver cashed every two weeks.  And, besides, it’s not like Morlon’s salary made it so we could not afford some other great WLB who was available this past offseason, so I’m not entirely sure that his cost is germane to this conversation.

Now, obviously, Greenwood will be 30 this year and he can’t play forever.  And, as much as I love the guy, if Adibi takes his job after this season based on the performance of one or both of them in 2008, I am not going to lose any sleep.  But, until that day comes, I think Texans fans need to realize how well Greenwood is playing every week and be thankful that we have him.

Thanks, Joey!

Jun 25, 2008 2002 Draft, Awfulness, Sandy Vag, Stats

According to Pro Football Reference, it was only the amazing levels of suckitude put forth by Joey Harrington and Rick Mirer that kept David Carr from topping the Worst QB (Career) list.  But, still, I guess he can point to one other QB from the same time period and say, “See!  I told you I wasn’t THAT bad!”

Plus, I suppose Carr could point to the fact that only during his 2002 season was he the worst QB in the league.  And his 2002 season was only the fourth worst in history.  So, yeah…maybe we totally misread the guy.

From the article:

Here’s a list of the 25 worst seasons by any QB:

		year		att	pyd	 ptd	icp	sk-syd	 any/a	Rating
Bud Schwenk	1942	CRD	295	1360	 6	27	-	 0.69	-1243
Jack Jacobs	1948	GNB	184	 848	 5	21	-	-0.26	-1158
Jake Plummer	1999	ARI	381	2111	 9	24	27-152	 2.38	-1017
Archie Manning	1975	NOR	338	1683	 7	20	49-390	 1.20	- 972
David Carr	2002	HOU	444	2592	 9	15	76-411	 3.07	- 942

And more:

How about the worst QB in the league for every season since the merger?

Quarterback		Year    Team    ANY/A   Rating
Trent Dilfer		2007	SFO	 2.09	- 754
Andrew Walter		2006	OAK	 2.69	- 764
Kyle Orton		2005	CHI	 2.97	- 815
A.J. Feeley		2004	MIA	 3.15	- 806
Joey Harrington		2003	DET	 3.56	- 738
David Carr		2002	HOU	 3.07	- 942

And the rest:

Okay, I know what you’re all waiting for. Let’s get to the career list.

Quarterback      Att     Rate
Joey Harrington	 2538	-2129
Rick Mirer	 2043	-2081
David Carr	 2206	-1804

The methodology for these ratings can be found here.  This is either hilariously sad or depressingly funny,  I’m not sure which.

Taking this Bentley for a test drive

Mar 3, 2008 2008 Season, Fuck the Cowboys, Kevin Bentley, Spin City, Stats

With the recent departure of Charlie Anderson to Miami, today’s signing of Kevin Bentley makes sense from a depth standpoint at the very least. I liked Anderson, but he was never going to be anything more than a backup LB on a good team. If the Dolphins want to pay him, be my guest.

But, like I said, the departure of Charlie left a need for a linebacker. Enter Kevin Bentley.

(This is where you say “who the fuck is Kevin Bentley?”)

Fear not, dear readers…I shall enlighten you. And, by “enlighten you,” I mean “Google his name and then make some sweeping generalizations that end with me embracing his signing.”

The most impressive thing about Bentley is that he is apparently agile as hell. As proof, I point you to this list, which shows Bentley tied for the sixth best shuttle time at the Combine since 1999. He is tied with Terrence Newman and Jason Allen and (perhaps even more impressive) Bentley is the ONLY linebacker on that list. His time was only one one-hundredth of a second slower than Dante Hall.

His other Combine numbers are nearly as impressive. 4.68 in the 40, a 10″ broad jump, 23 reps, and a 39 inch vertical. In short, Bentley would seem to have the tools to play in the NFL.

(Here is where you say “but that was in 2002…not exactly yesterday, asshole!”)

This is true. Since being drafted by the Browns in ‘02, he has posted one 96 tackle season (2003) and an additional season over 60 tackles (2004). He was then shipped to Seattle where he saw action almost exclusively as a special teamer. By all accounts, he was very adept at this job—as one might expect from a fast, agile, 234-lb linebacker.

In the end, I agree with Tim that this signing means both that Smithiak saw something they liked in Bentley (probably his versatility—in addition to playing special teams, he’s played all three LB positions) and that they are becoming more and more sold on the idea of Zac Diles contributing at strongside linebacker this year.

Now, maybe I am drunk (I am), but I really, REALLY like the idea of a starting LB trio of Diles, DeJesus, and Greenwood. Add to that the possible contributions of Bentley as a nickel linebacker and we (might) suddenly have depth and talent across our LB corps.

Or Diles might flop at SLB, Bentley get cut during camp, and we are back to square one. At least we aren’t giving $8MM guaranteed to learn that lesson.

So…about that zone blocking.

Jan 11, 2008 2008 Season, Alex Gibbs, Awesomeness, Football 101, Nnamdi Asomugha, Posts that list too many players, Preview, RB free-for-all, Ron Dayne likes pie, Stats, Teams that aren't the Texans

The hiring of Alex Gibbs prompted at least three people to ask me to re-address the zone blocking concept. Because there are a few things in the original post on the subject that I wanted to correct or clarify, I am glad to. [Note: all block quotes are cut-and-pasted from the original post.]

Not long ago, I heard a color commentator mention during an NFL game that a “zone blocking system is one in which the lineman all have a specific area they are responsible for, kind of like a zone defense in basketball.” I found the same sort of thought at Football Outsiders, too. While this is more-or-less, sorta kinda accurate when it comes to pass blocking, it is not correct vis-a-vis run blocking. Or, at least, not near correct enough to get the point across. At its most basic level, all a zone run blocking scheme means is that the offensive linemen work in pairs against two or three of the defensive linemen–i.e. the guard and center simultaneously block a defensive tackle–with one of the offensive linemen then peeling off and blocking a linebacker. The “zone” the system refers to is the part of the line where the running play is going. This is what creates the “one cut” system, but we’ll get to that in a minute.

Let’s expound on that a little. First, for the sake of brevity and clarity, let’s get some acronyms working. “ZPB” will refer to zone pass blocking and “ZRB” will refer to…well, you get it.

Anyway, in a ZPB scheme, it is true that the offensive linemen are responsible for an area rather than a specific defender. This means on a blitz or a defensive lineman stunt, the offensive linemen must all be on the same page as to assignments and all must maintain zone discipline similar to lane discipline on special teams coverage. Getting this coordinated movement down is one of the more difficult aspects of learning the system, mainly because of some of the intricacies involved.

For instance, imagine a twist-stunt between the RDE and RDT. In pure theory, the LT and LG are just going to wait for the stunting lineman to come into their respective zones. Problem is, the game moves at too high a speed–especially when you are talking about the speed of a DE compared to an OG. In this situation, assuming a normal twist where the end goes under the tackle, four distinct movements will happen on the O-line. (1) The LT will engage the DE to stop him from shooting the gap. (2) The LG will step backward and to his left. (3) The LT will disengage the DE, passing him off to the LG who is now in position to block him. (4) The LT will locate and pickup the stunting DT.

As with any pass-blocking scheme, you have the question of how blitz pickup works. There are some people who disagree, but I actually feel blitz pickup is easier in a zone system. Assume a blitz where the SLB is going to shoot the B gap, the LDE is going outside the tackle (C gap) and the LDT is going A gap. Here, we have at least three defined movements. (1) The RG engages the DT, allowing the C enough time to get his head up and make the 45-degree step back and to his right. (2) The RG passes the DT off to the C, now in position, and slides right to pick up the SLB. (3) The RT picks up the LDE as he usually would. The reason this is preferable (at least in my mind) is that it simplifies the blitz pickup assignment, as each offensive lineman is essentially guarding a gap rather than worrying about who will pick up the extra rusher. This way, if the SLB actually goes to the C gap and the LDE stunts to the B gap, the RT mirrors what the RG did in steps (1) and (2) above, then passes the DE to the RG. The TE mirrors the two linemen, picks up the SLB (if necessary), and then passes him off to the RT before releasing.

“Yeah, yeah,” you say. “That’s all fine and dandy, but what about the good stuff?” Because, as we all know, the real excitement of the Gibbs hire (and the real difficultly in implementing the zone system) comes from ZRB.

Let’s walk through a example play where the running back is supposed to go right against a 4-3 defensive front. At the snap of the ball, the left tackle and left guard block the nose tackle, the center takes under tackle, and the right guard and right tackle block the left defensive end. This two-on-one blocking allows the offensive front to get a push and, also, to create the running lanes. Now, here’s where it gets tricky. Depending on certain factors (where the defensive player lined up, which direction the running play is going, where the LB is in relation to the defensive lineman, etc.), one offensive player from each double-team will disengage the defensive lineman and pick up the corresponding linebacker. So, in our example, assuming a standard 4-3 Over, the LT would disengage and slide to the second level to pick up the WLB, the RG would do the same and pick up the Mike linebacker, and the TE would be responsible (from the snap) for the SLB.

If this is done correctly, there should be a hole between the TE and RT, the C and where the RG was, and the C and LG. This is the “inside zone” and is where the “one cut” comes into play. In this system, the running back chooses one of these holes, makes his single cut, and goes. Ideally, he won’t make this cut until he is almost to his offensive lineman, thus allowing the defense less time to react to his angle. By contrast, the “outside zone” is the area beyond the TE/Sam block. Plays designed to seal off the defense and open up the outside zone do not have the “one cut” aspect to them–the running back is obligated to head outside (in theory, at least)–so the linemen block similar to a man blocking scheme, where there is a pre-determined hole.

The above part is where I should have been more precise. Apologies.

For one thing, if you want to be extremely technical, running this play to the hole between the RG and RT is “middle zone.” That’s really neither here nor there for our discussion, but I want to be thorough. Additionally, you could include a stretch play, where the RB heads for just inside the last offensive player (i.e. a WR). This is far more common in college, but can be done in the NFL with the right personnel.  We shan’t be doing it much with Ron Dayne, however, so we’ll ignore it for now.

Another slight correction. Re: the man-blocking appearance of the outside zone runs, it is possible to run a variation, wherein the tackle seals the DE, the C cuts the DT, and the G peels around to seal off the OLB. This is often called a “pull and overtake” or “pin and pull” maneuver. The key is that the G make an initial hit on the playside shoulder of the DE to knock him off balance and allow the OT to overtake him.

With those corrections out of the way, let’s look at some other aspects of ZRB.

First, some historical background. Like all good football innovations, ZRB was developed as a response to a defensive trend. Teams were using a slant/angle defense, where the defensive linemen all rush to the same side of their corresponding offensive linemen and the blitzing linebacker flows back the other direction into a wide open rushing lane to sack the QB or blow up the running play. ZRB (and ZPB) mitigated this by allowing linemen to pass rushers off and stay home to deal with the linebackers. In fact, with ZRB, a properly-handled blitzing LB is basically taking himself out of the play. If he is blitzing to the same side as the running play, he’s picked up and and sealed off like any other defensive lineman; if he’s blitzing to the backside of the running play–as long as it is not through the A gap–he is generally allowed to shoot through with minimal resistance as the one-cut technique allows the RB to be long gone by the time the LB adjusts.

A second feature of ZRB is its consistency in appearance. From snap to cut, every play should look more or less the same, forcing the linebackers into a no-win choice–do they stay home and see where the play develops (and, thus, risk getting picked up by the offensive lineman who has just disengaged and looked to the second level) or do they flow with the play and more often than not overpursue? Part of the reason they are forced into this quandry is because the RB in a ZRB system has two responsibilities–first, he is running to a specific spot (usually called a “landmark”) on each play. This spot can vary, but it usually somewhere right around the OG’s butt. Second, he is running toward that landmark as for as long as he can, so that he gets as deep as possible into the line–and causes the flowing linebackers to keep moving away–before making his cut.

[Author's note: I need to make another correction here. I stated that running to the outside zone does not have the one-cut aspect to it and that it is more like traditional man blocking. While this is true, it overlooks that, because it looks the same as the middle- and inside-zone runs as it initially develops, the fact that your back has been making cuts effectively turns not making a cut and going outside just as effective as the cuts. Like anything in football, it's all about mixing it up.]

A third feature of ZRB is actually what it does not feature. Namely, it is very rare (read: never) that you will see a counter or misdirection play. The reason for this should be obvious. If the running back goes right, but the entire ZRB unit sets up for a run to the left, the play doesn’t really fool anyone, the RB is pretty much forced to turn the run into an outside zone or stretch play when he heads back to his left, and the RB is running right into the defensive players that ZRB lets through with minimal resistance. There are some variations on ZRB that attempt to incorporate traps and counters, but they are few and far between.

Fourth, traditional ZRB chooses which side to run the play to based upon the defensive technique. What do I mean? Well, take your inside zone, for instance. Most teams will run all inside- and middle-zone runs toward the 1-technique tackle, regardless of whether he lines up on the right or left. This is because his position relative to the inside shoulder of the OG makes it easy for the C and OG to double-team him, push him in the proper direction, and still be in position to pick up the LB. This lack of this sort of theory is part of what made the Texans system in ‘06 and ‘07 a hybrid–they would run plays to pre-determined sides, meaning that certain plays called for man blocking and eliminated double teams.

Facets of zone blocking thus taken care of, let’s move on to the final pieces of the puzzle–personnel and Gibbs’ history.

In the last post, I wrote:

Well, as Tim correctly notes, the zone blocking scheme almost invariably features smaller, more agile offensive linemen. The reason should be obvious–it is not going to be real easy for a Larry Allen to engage a defender, then slide his big butt away from the block and pick up a linebacker who is 4 or 5 tenths of a second faster than he is. Besides, since you are hitting at the initial point of attack with a 2-on-1 advantage, you don’t need a pair of 340 lb. behemoths; a pair of 280 lb. lineman will work just fine, with the added bonus of being able to pick up linebackers and be more maneuverable in space.

I then went on to opine that our current crop doesn’t fit that mold, which is true, and explaining the underlying theory of the smaller guys. However, what I failed to really flesh out is that the idea of smaller linemen is only the current theory of what works and it is primarily based on the success Denver has had. However, just like how teams moved from the power-I to today’s offensive formations, the current mold for a ZRB lineman is not necessarily the only thing that works.

The Denver theory of using two-on-one and having the speed to get to the second level is fine and it is incredibly successful. However, it is also the reason that they have to use the cut-blocks that so many people complain about. When Gibbs took over Denver’s offensive line in 1984, his offensive linemen were nearly all between 260 and 280. He played with the hand he was dealt and created a ZRB scheme that utilized cutblocking because he had to (though it is no stretch to say that, over time, he developed an affinity for the sub-300 lbers). After all, there are two ways to create running lanes–you can move the defensive player out of the way or you can knock him down. Even going two-on-one, because of the way ZRB quickly disengages and moves to the next level, your two 280-lb linemen don’t have the bulk to appreciably move a 340-lb 1-technique tackle before one of them releases. So you send one of the 270-lbers into the side of the DT’s thigh and knock him flat.¹

If, on the other hand, you have more bulk at the point of attack, you obviate the need for the cut block because you can physically move the DT before the OG (or whomever) slides to the next level. Simple physics, really–620 lbs are going to exert more force in a given time than 560 lbs will.

Now…which of these lineman prototypes is preferable? I honestly can’t say. On the one hand, as we discussed, the smaller, more agile linemen give you the speed to move to the linebackers and the size to fit through smaller gaps in order to get to that next level. However, as commenter cseafous pointed out (comment #4), modern linebackers are always going to be faster than even the most agile OG. So, unless your RB is really, really good at running to his landmark and freezing the LBs, there’s a fairly decent chance that the OG will not be able to pick up the LB on the run. Conversely, if you have traditional offensive linemen, you have a lot more mass at the point of attack, but you create a situation where the doubleteam has to engage, move, have one disengage, and find the next level more quickly to compensate for the lack of speed.

Ideally, you’d get guys like Eric Winston who were slightly smaller than average (305) but were strong (22 reps) and quicker (4.93) than average, basically splitting the baby and getting maximum push in a short amount of time while still having the agility to pick up LBs. Of course, if it were that easy to find those guys, everyone would do it. Still, I imagine that, over time, you will see the girth of our existing line lessened.

Ignoring the size of the blockers for a second, the cool thing about Gibbs, however, is that he’s had success everywhere he’s gone, regardless of the initial group he got to work with. When he got to Denver, the team ran for 746 yards in its first five games. When he went to Atlanta in 2004, he had guys like Kynan Forney (307), Martin Bibla (306), Michael Moore (318)…not exactly the prototype from his Denver days (and not exactly All-Pros). Yet that Falcons team had both backs–Warrick Dunn and TJ Duckett–average at least 4.2/carry and they were consistent in those averages pretty much game in and game out.

With that kind of sustained success, regardless of the personnel he starts with, I think it is safe to say that hiring Alex Gibbs is going to prove to be bigger than any single offseason move we might make. And I would stick by that statement even if we signed Nnamdi Asomugha.

Another consistent thing about Gibbs’ teams–more often than not, they don’t take offensive linemen early in the draft. In 1984, the first o-lineman they took was in Round 8 (Winford Hood). In 1985, Round 5 (Billy Hinson). In 1986, Round 4 (Jim Juriga–this one is misleading, though, because the fourth round was the first pick Denver had). In 1987, Round 8 (Dan Morgan). In 1995, Round 4 (Jamie Brown). In 1996, Round 7 (Leslie Ratliff). In 1997, Round 3 (Dan Neil). In 1998, Round 7 (Trey Teague). In 1999, Round 2 (Lennie Friedman). In 2000, Round 4 (Cooper Carlisle). In 2001, Round 4 (Ben Hamilton). In 2002, they didn’t draft one. Finally, in 2003, Round 1 (George Foster).

When he went to Atlanta, the trend continued. 2004–didn’t draft one. 2005–Round 5 (Frank Omiyale). 2006–Round 5 (Quinn Ojinnaka).

Long story short, you can probably stop mentioning names like Ryan Clady and Sam Baker when you are talking about possible picks at 18. While not drafting first-round OTs is nothing new for this franchise, with Gibbs on board, the results almost surely will be.

¹ Mark Schlereth has also said that a benefit of the cutblock is that you keep knocking these 300 lb. DTs down and they have to get right back up and trail the play while the O-lineman lays there and rests until the play ends, thus tiring the defensive player far more quickly. This is probably true, but is more of an added benefit than a raison d’etre for ZRB.

.500

Dec 30, 2007 2007 Season, Awesomeness, Chad Stanley, Demarcus Faggins sucks, Free Agency, Matt Turk rules, Owen Daniels is a big ol' Pimp, Posts that list too many players, Ron Dayne likes pie, Rosie Rosenfels, Roster, Secondary issues are primary, Sign Andre Davis now, Stats, Team Records

Ladies and gentlemen, allow me to introduce your non-losing Houston Texans.  There were a lot of statements made in this game, both good and bad. At the end of the day, however, the fact that we won our eighth game overshadows every single thing I am about to write.

• Dear Texans Fans, You’re welcome. Love, Andre Davis. Seriously…that was amazing. Hell, it was Hester-esque. Between what he offered as a WR when Andre Johnson was out, how well he played on punt coverage (highly underrated), and his contributions as a kick returner, we would be ridiculously stupid not to sign him to a multi-year deal. As an added bonus, signing him means we don’t even have to consider re-signing Jerome Mathis, which is good if only because Mathis might hurt himself signing the contract.
• Dear Matt, How’s that for “not good?” Love, Darius Walker. I apologize for doubting you. No, you might not have the fastest top-end in town and, no, you might not be able to get the corner against a fast defense, but you have fantastic vision and you don’t dance around behind the line. Like I said over in the Game Thread, it seems like Walker hits his top speed–whatever that may be–instantly. So, what he might lack as an open field runner, he more than makes up for between the tackles. Fact: If you take away his 41 yard run, Walker still averaged 5 yards per carry; if you include that run, he averaged 8.6. Nice.
• Dear Petey Faggins, I don’t think your pre-game pointers helped. Love, Von Hutchins. Wow…as surprisingly good as Walker was, that’s how shockingly bad Hutchins looked. It got to the point early on that I half expected Garrard to come to the line, find Hutchins, and start laughing before the snap. Even Tina Turner wasn’t abused like that.
• Dear Von Hutchins, Thanks for the opportunity! Love, Dexter Wynn. Much like how Kubiak pulled Faggins out of the Atlanta game to try and stop the bleeding, Wynn replaced Hutchins for the most part after the second TD that Hutchins coughed up. Dexter looked surprisingly solid, especially when you consider the size he was giving up to the Jacksonville WRs. He wasn’t perfect and you sure wouldn’t want to go into the season with him as your CB2, but he might have gotten a leg up on Hutchins in the “which one will we re-sign” battle (both are unrestricted free agents).
• Dear Sage Rosenfels, About that whole trading-for-you thing…nevermind. Love, NFL GMs with QB Problems. Short of sporting bouffant hair and wearing white gloves, I don’t know that it would be possible for a player to damage his trade value more than Sage has the last two weeks. While he wasn’t atrocious or anything to day, he wasn’t anywhere approaching “good.” Even the TD pass to Daniels was on a poor throw and required a great grab by the big TE. Of course, he later felt the need to hit an opposing DB between the numbers for his weekly INT. He’s still a good backup, but any talk (by me) of getting a third-round or better pick for him or any talk (by others) about a QB controversy needs to be put on hold. Let’s all take a deep breath and move on.
• Dear NFL QBs, Be afraid in 2008. Very afraid. Love, Mario Williams. No, our resident sackmaster didn’t get the one he needed to pass Patrick Kearney, but Jacksonville was clearly concerned with him from the first snap. This was some of the most blatant holding of Mario we’ve seen this year, but the refs seem to have already put him in the category of elite pass rushers that can be held with near-impunity. I don’t think it’s a stretch to expect at least 18 sacks out of Mario next season. Reggie who?
• Dear Richard Smith, How did you manage to make Quinn Gray look like Peyton Manning? Love, Texans Fans. Here’s a thought–and I think we’ve been over this before–but when your secondary is getting worked like Jenna Jameson’s labia and you are letting a backup QB throw for four TDs, maybe you shouldn’t completely abandon the blitz. Because, maybe I am crazy, but it seems like you would have seen over the past month how much better this entire defensive unit is when you are blitzing and you would have used that knowledge against the Jags so they didn’t pick you apart with their gigantic WRs against your patchwork defensive backfield. Just sayin’.
• Dear Rick Smith, Please get rid of Richard Smith before he forces me to climb a clock tower and start shooting student nurses. Love, Matt.
• Dear Rick Smith, I think I deserve more than $1.3MM next season. Love, Ron Dayne. The Trayne ended this game with 88 yards (4.2/carry) and 2 more TDs, giving him a team-high 773 yards (career high) and 6 rushing TDs. He also added career highs in receptions (17) and receiving yards (112). If we can get him back for any combination of bonus and salary under $2MM/year, I think we have to.

Other tidbits

• When he wasn’t busy misidentifying Texans or mispronouncing names, Dick Enberg mentioned that the forty-two points scored today was a new franchise record. This breaks the old record of 34, set against Carolina in week 3. Ladies and gentlemen, we have an offense.
• If I told you before the season started that Darius Walker would have more rushing yards than Ahman Green and that the two of them combined would have fewer than Ron Dayne, what would you have guessed our record to be?
• Chad Stanley, 2006: 41.6 yards per punt, 36.7 net. Matt Turk, 2007: 41.7 yards per punt, 37.9 net. Yet, despite their similarities, there were only a couple games where Turk worried me, as opposed to sixteen where I was concerned by Stanley. Weird.
• We won despite being outgained by 91 yards and having 3:34 less in time of possession. God bless Andre Davis.
• 8-8. Never has symmetry looked so nice.

Eeez boolshit! Should be same rules for everyone!

Dec 19, 2007 2006 Draft, 2007 Season, Amobi Okoye is 20, DeMeco Ryans, Posts that list too many players, Pro Bowl 2008, Righteous Indignation, Stats, Super Mario

First off, congratulations to uber-stud, blog namesake, and all-around awesome guy DeMeco Ryans for being named STARTING MLB for the 2008 AFC Pro Bowl team. Well done, DR.

Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let me just say that IN NO UNIVERSE THAT MAKES ANY SENSE SHOULD KYLE VANDEN BOSCH BE ON THE ROSTER OVER MARIO WILLIAMS. Consider:

Mario Williams–14 G, 13 Sacks (2d in NFL (1st in AFC), 2d among DEs), 53 tackles, 2 FF, 1 FR, 1 TD

Kyle Vanden Bosch–13G, 9 Sacks (T-16th in NFL, 5th among DEs), 48 tackles, 3 FF

Still not convinced? Well, consider further that, in the three games Albert Haynesworth was out, KVB was pretty much a non-factor, notching 10 total tackles and only one sack. On the other hand, Mario has been the focal point of opposing offensive lines week-in and week-out. He has dominated regardless of whether he was lined up beside ND Kalu, Travis Johnson, Jeff Zgonina, Anthony Maddox, or Amobi Okoye. Hell, look at Amobi’s sacks–all of them have come when Mario has been on the field and on all but one of them, Williams was getting visibly gang-raped while Okoye blew past his single blocker. Granted, it’s generally a hard statement to prove, but I think most anyone would agree that Mario has made that entire line better.

Don’t get me wrong–Vanden Bosch is a great player and I would trade a kidney to have him lined up opposite Mario. He just did not deserve to make this team over Mario. You want to split hairs between him and Jason Taylor, by all means, be my guest , but don’t pretend like Mario hasn’t had a better year and hasn’t meant more to his team on every single snap that KVB has.

The part about this whole thing that really chaps my ass is that I get a sneaking feeling that Mario’s omission has a lot to do with bias against him that has carried over from last year. That and the fact that most people voted before they got to see him violate Jay Cutler on national television, as the Texans get about as much national coverage as the Tiffin University Equestrian team does. (Go Dragons!) Yes, yes…he’s been named an “alternate.” Big deal. Will Demps is an alternate. Are you telling me that Will Demps and Mario Williams are having seasons similar in quality at their respective positions? Because, if you are telling me that, we can no longer be friends. In fact, mom says you need to go home.

Your “Reggie Bush, Feature Back” moment of zen

Dec 3, 2007 2007 Season, Inanity, Reggie Bush, Stats

13 carries for 64 yards, 3 catches for 13 yards, 0TD, 2 Fumbles.

Note: Second fumble with 3:36 left in the game set up Tampa Bay’s game-winning TD drive.

Your “Vince Young, Intangibly Great QB” moment of hilarity

Nov 25, 2007 2006 Draft, Inanity, Intangibly Great, Stats, Super Mario, Teams that aren't the Texans, Vinsanity

19/32, 246 Passing Yards, 0 TD, 1 Fumble Lost(, Edit: 1 INT); 2 rushes for 6 yards

(In case you were wondering, Mario Williams had 4 tackles, a sack (his third in the last four games), and a forced fumble.)

Your “Reggie Bush, Feature Back” moment of zen

Nov 25, 2007 2006 Draft, 2007 Season, Inanity, Reggie Bush, Stats

9 carries for 32 yards, 3 catches for 30 yards, 0 TD.

In a game where the Saints scored FOUR offensive TDs.

Your "Reggie Bush, Feature Back" moment of zen

Nov 18, 2007 2006 Draft, 2007 Season, Inanity, Reggie Bush, Stats, Super Mario

15 carries for 34 yards (2.27/carry), 12 catches for 70 yards, 2 Fumbles Lost

(Just for the hell of it: Mario Williams 6 tackles, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble, in on 4 tackles that limited Bush to 5 total yards)