Elway on the Raiders, Carr
Oct 24, 2008 David Carr has Post-Concussion Syndrome, Teams that aren't the Texans, Zoolander's snazzy handwear
ESPN’s AFC West blog has some excerpts from an article that John Elway wrote for Sporting News on JaMarcus Russell and the Raiders.
We all know that the Raiders and the Broncos probably hate each other at an administrative level moreso than any other teams in the league, including the Jets and the Patriots. These guys have been going at it for years. So it’s interesting from that angle. Elway tries to draw a comparison between Russell’s situation and David Carr’s, and I’m not sure it helps Russell any:
“It’s this kind of organizational instability that can ruin a quarterback, like the Texans ruined David Carr and the Browns ruined Tim Couch. A young quarterback, especially a No. 1 guy with the weight of a city’s expectations on his shoulders, can wilt.”
I have to admit, I didn’t follow the Dom Capers years as intimately as I’ve followed the Kubiak years. But I have never had the impression that the only reason David Carr didn’t succeed was because of “organizational stability.” I thought it was because, you know, he sucked. If he “wilted”, it’s because David Carr is the kind of guy that wilts, period. (Something-something about gloves.)
Elway seems to fall under the impression that, if you’re a #1 overall pick as a QB, you must be awesome, because Elway was awesome and he was a #1 pick. Surely those guys must have had some sort of exceptional talent, but being exceptional at one thing - throwing a football hard and fast and far - doesn’t make you into a good NFL quarterback. Maybe things came really easy to John Elway, and he takes that for granted.
It kind of makes me wonder what Elway thinks of Gary Kubiak’s handling of David Carr. After all, Kubiak was Elway’s back-up and then his position coach, and Kubiak saw enough of David Carr in a year to cut him loose and admit that he made a mistake on thinking the guy was a capable player. So either Elway thinks coaching is important (and implicitly thinks Kubiak was a pretty darn good one), or he thinks David Carr was super-awesome and that Kubiak and every subsequent coach since has made a big mistake on the guy.
Can you guys provide some insight on the coaching that David Carr received, specifically at Offensive Co-ordinator and Quarterbacks Coach? Like I said, I wasn’t paying too much attention then, but I never got the impression that Carr went through the coaching hell that Jason Campbell has gone through since high school. Carr just seemed to me like another guy in a long list of Jeff Tedford QBs that sucked (with the apparent exception of Aaron Rodgers). How much of it is Carr and how much of it is what Elway suggests is an Al Davis-esque level of incompetence?
Update: Completely unrelated, but Stephanie scores a must-read interview with FootballOutsiders alumnus Bill Barnwell. Go check it out now. It makes you want to take up a “Fire Millen” type crusade against Richard Smith.
Digging
Oct 24, 2008 Fluff, Random Thoughts with Matt, Teams that aren't the Texans, This is a rather lame and pointless post
I wanted to get this up before the World Series started, but (much like when bfd tries to get it up on short notice) it didn’t happen. Such is life.
Anyway, with the doormat Rays suddenly in the Fall Classic, I got to thinking—there are a number of parallels between that team and our own Houston Juggernauts. So, with some input from bigwood25, I present a list for your Friday enjoyment:
- Recent History. Both teams are new (in sports terms) and have grown accustomed to losing every year. In fact, both teams finished above last in their respective division only twice. Obviously, the Rays’ second better-than-last finish was a great one, but it was a decade in coming.
- Competition. Both teams play in very tough divisions that seem to produce two playoff teams every season and usually feature one of the best records in baseball at the top.
- Coaching. Both teams hired assistants from inside their own conference/league and both coaches were highly respected as assistants by their peers. Both were talked about as future head coaches for a while before they were given the chance.
- Drafting. Both have young, intelligent GMs who have found some real bargains, especially later in the draft. Moreover, the most recognizable faces for each franchise are all products of the draft rather than free agents.
- Management History. Both teams had crappy management and coaching early in their existence and both made poor player decisions rather than get rid of the poor leadership, almost as if it was the players’ fault.
- Free Agent Flops. Anthony Weaver, Todd Wade, Jose Canseco, Greg Vaughn. Yikes.
- In-State Competition. Both teams have been overshadowed throughout their entire existence by another team from within the same state. (Thankfully, we have not had to deal with the Cowboys winning a Super Bowl however. Because they are choking losers.)
- Rookie Stars. Steve Slaton and Evan Longoria both came to their teams without a starting gig and, because they played VERY well when given the chance, had secured a starting spot within a month or six weeks. Both were arguably Pro Bowl/All Star worthy in their first season. (Assuming Slaton continues his level of production.)
- Fans. Both have trouble keeping the stadium filled up—though the Texans do sell out, but nearly all football sells out—because a large percentage of the fanbase is of the fair-weather variety. Both, of course, see more butts in the seats when the team is doing well.
What does all this mean? Obviously, not a whole helluva lot. After all, we’re talking about two totally different sports here. But, still, at a time when the Rays went from joke to World Series in one year, this is the type of thing that should give you some hope about the Texans. After all, it’s much easier statistically to sneak out an extra win or two in football and suddenly find yourself in the playoffs than it is to sneak out an extra 20 or 30 over the course of an MLB season.
Kickoff - “Where Wins Feel Like Losses and Losses Look Like Wins” Edition
Oct 20, 2008 2008 Season, Fire Richard Smith, Kickoff, Reggie Bush shat himself, Teams that aren't the Texans
Another week, another game that was tough on the bloodpressure and the willingness to not maim Richard Smith. Lots of stuff to cover today, time willing, so let’s get to the links.
Truth to power. Alan Burge says the “Texans are going nowhere” until the defense plays better. Can’t disagree with that at all. I have no idea how you play the Lions and don’t force a single turnover. (I do disagree with the idea, however, that all 30 other NFL teams would have beaten the Texans yesterday.)
No link, but… How awful was the officiating (from a Texans perspective) in that fourth quarter? Not roughing the kicker? Ticky-tack personal foul against Will Demps? (Not to mention the personal foul against Fred that the TV didn’t show clearly.) Very, very awful.
The Petey Faggins Experience. From the Chicago Tribune, a write-up on the game features this nugget:
The Texans punted early in the fourth quarter, pinning the Lions at their own 4-yard line. Calvin Johnson ran past the Texans’ defense and caught a perfect pass from Orlovsky and scored. It was Detroit’s longest pass play since 1998 and the fourth longest in team history.
Finally.
Another year, another injury for Captain Douchebag.
Kickoff - “Jon Kitna Masturbates To The Bible” Edition
Oct 17, 2008 Dunta Robinson, Ha ha... you like the Lions, Inanity, Kickoff, Super Mario, Teams that aren't the Texans
I have no idea if that is true, but you believed it for just a moment, didn’t you? DIDN’T YOU?!?
Impressive. Steph lays out a case for firing Richard Smith and manages to do so without using “fuck,” “retard,” or “his defensive scheme is less watchable than your grandma fucking a midget.”
The Legacy of Matt Millen. Since 2001—a year in which the Texans did not yet exist—the Texans have won more games than the Detroit Lions. In other words, Detroit Lions fans are the one fanbase that even Texans fans should pity.
Reminder. THE ORIGINAL BAD MOTHERFUCKER, DUNTA ROBINSON, IS BACK!
Finally. Flashback time.
Postulatin’
Oct 11, 2008 2008 Season, Predictions Guaranteed To Go Wrong, Teams that aren't the Texans
Oh, yeah…the theory that I mentioned here.
It goes like this: We’ve been hearing all week how the Texans are the first true 4-3 team the Dolphins will face this year. I think the fact that they’ve been playing only 3-4s is why the WildCat package is working.
Here’s what I mean: With Ronnie Brown getting the ball directly behind the center, the linebackers are forced to freeze for just a second until they see which way he takes off. In that time, the center and guard can crash the NT, the tackle and TE can crash the DE, and there is suddenly a hole for Brown. By the time the LBs react, Brown has hit the second level and the play is consistently good for a gain.
Against the 4-3, however, that natural hole doesn’t develop. The two outside backers can attack from the snap, so long as they don’t lose their edge. The center and guard might be tied up with one of the DTs, but the TE has to stay home and chip the LB, meaning the DE has a one-on-one matchup. Moreover, there’s an extra body where there was a hole against the 3-4.
All of which is my long way of saying “bring the WildCat, bitches,” because that won’t be working against Mario and Co.
Kickoff - “Two Days Until Our First Victory (That Should, In All Honesty, Be At Least Our Second And Probably Our Third)” Edition
Oct 10, 2008 2008 Season, Dancing With the 'Tards, H/T Eric, Hi Steve!, Kickoff, Rosie Rosenfels, Teams that aren't the Texans
That’s right, bitchez. I’m calling it. No suspense, no drama—we’re winning this game 31-13 with both Stevie Wonder (yes, I am saying it over and over to purge the idea of Scuba Steve) and Andre Johnson going off.
Sacre bleu! This isn’t really new news, as it was discussed earlier this week, but I find it funny that the underlying theme of this article about the Texans in a French paper is that the team is not going to surrender. McNair has confidence in them and, by extension, in Gary Kubiak. That’s good. I think. (More on Kubiak later today if time permits.)
Boom! Dale Roberson at the paper that shan’t be named has an article on the Dolphins’ WildCat formation, but Eric brings up an interesting question. Namely, if Pennington is lined up at tailback or in the slot, do that make him fair game for a DE or LB to blow him up as he tries to block? I would certainly think so, and I encourage such actions wholeheartedly.
AHNOLD! A photoshopped version of the Rosencopter. I agree with Spencer Hall: everything is improved with Ahnold doing a voice over.
Finally. The Arkansas State Fair starts today and, while you couldn’t pay me enough to go suffer through that “fun,” I heard something on the radio this morning that explains a lot. Apparently, at one food booth, you can get a Pig Licker. This is a deep fried strip of bacon, dipped in chocolate, and sprinkled with salt and candy sprinkles. And, for a beverage to wash down that bit of health food, the person suggested FRIED DR. PEPPER. I have no idea how that even works.
Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’m going to go have a heart attack just from writing that description.
For Entertainment Purposes Only. *wink wink, nudge nudge*
Oct 9, 2008 2008 Season, I was told there would be no math, Teams that aren't the Texans
Courtesy of an email I just got from Bodog, here are some random NFL odds for your Thursday afternoon perusal.
Miscellaneous Odds
Who will be the last NFL team to win a game?
Houston Texans 6/1
Cincinnati Bengals 9/4
Detroit Lions 2/1
St Louis Rams 3/2How many offensive turnovers will the Washington Redskins commit in the 2008 NFL season?
Over/Under 13.5
Brett Favre week 6 Touchdown Passes
Over 2.5 +185
Under 2.5 -245How many starts will Drew Stanton get in the 2008 NFL season?
Over 1.5 Even
Under 1.5 -130In week 6 the Philadelphia Eagles will score more points in the first half/second half?
First half -200
Second Half +150In week 6 the San Diego Chargers will score more points in the first half/second half?
First Half +150
Second Half -200Who will have more rushing yards from week 6 till the end of the season for the Cincinnati Bengals?
Chris Perry -155
Cedric Benson +115Who will lead the NE Patriots in rushing for the rest of the 2008 NFL season?
Sammy Morris +125
LaMont Jordan +220
Laurence Maroney +160Plaxico Burress Week 6 Receiving Yards
Over/Under 60.5
Updated Playoff Odds
Will the Green Bay Packers make the playoffs?
Yes +340
No -440Will the Indianapolis Colts make the playoffs?
Yes +160
No -210Will the Jacksonville Jaguars make the playoffs?
Yes +400
No -600Will the Minnesota Vikings make the playoffs?
Yes +120
No -160Will the New Orleans Saints make the playoffs?
Yes +375
No -465Will the Philadelphia Eagles make the playoffs?
Yes +1400
No -2000Will the San Diego Chargers make the playoffs?
Yes Even
No -135Will the Seattle Seahawks make the playoffs?
Yes +400
No -600
Ambien-laced thoughts from socctty
Oct 1, 2008 2008 Season, Anger, Curious Coaching, Drugs, Teams that aren't the Texans
Don’t ever, ever go to an Oktoberfest for 6 hours and then come home and take a full dose of Ambien. You will end up scaring your girlfriend while you talk to your clothes and accuse them of hiding little people.
That said, let’s take a half-dose of ambien and some Benadryl and watch some clips from NFL.com.
1) Al Davis rants about Lane Kiffin. It’s pretty neat; makes you think that all those leaked media reports from the Raiders before Kiffin got fired were sourced exclusively by… Kiffin! Maybe Lane Kiffin is a douche-bag. Scope Al Davis though around the 11-minute mark. He dimes out Monte Kiffin for expressing interest in the Raiders’ defensive co-ordinator job. Not cool, Al Davis! Fire his son all you want, but don’t embarass a guy and risk that guy’s job because he wanted to work for you.
2) Yes, it’s the Jaguars’ fake punt formation again. I wasn’t digging the “Let’s Fire Marciano also” thing much, but it gains some traction with me every time I watch this video. It was about the third time through hearing it that I thought, “wait a second, that’s a 41-yard run.”
That means that Jacksonville was on OUR 41 yard line. Teams are always going to consider faking it on fourth down whenever they are past the 50-yard line. I don’t think this is something that we’ve been pissed off enough about. Yes, it’s been mentioned that the play sucked, but you would think that it was something like them punting from their own 30. But that’s not what happened! They were in our territory, it was perfectly valid for them to go for it there! It wasn’t even a crazy call! I still can’t believe no one called time-out. No player or coach. Really, really poor. It was as if no one had considered that maybe, just maybe, this guy that they play twice a year that has an affinity for trick plays would go for it given the field position.
But seriously, Ambien is good shit. It’s the closest thing to religion I know.
Kickoff “The Only Real News is Practice- and Hurricane-Related” Edition
Sep 16, 2008 2008 Season, Fantasy Geeks, Kickoff, Teams that aren't the Texans
“Richard Smith’s campaign to question,” indeed. Steph has an interview with a Japanese Houston Texans blogger. Money quote: “But as powerless as I am, I’m willing to continue writing, to introduce to our nation how great our franchise is, and the excitement of the sport. Hopefully someday, maybe when we win the Super Bowl, my little blog will earn a bit more love from my nation.”
Prognosticatin’, B! If you paid attention to Chris’ fantasy forecast last week, you would have known to start Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden, Anthony Gonzalez, Aaron Rodgers, Trent Edwards, Felix Jones, and Eddie Royal (among others). Judging by how I am owning a number of you fools in the fantasy league, maybe you guys should read that column (or listen to the podcast) before setting your lineups.
GRRRR! Ed Hochuli will be “graded down” for his blown call against the Chargers on Sunday. This will likely make Hochuli angry, causing him to turn green and tear his shirt off. Such is life. If it makes Ed feel any better, I am actually grading him up for that call, as I like the Broncos making me look smart for picking them to win the division.
Monday Afternoon Randomness Somewhat Related To Yesterday’s Football Contests (As Well As The Game That Wasn’t)
Sep 15, 2008 2008 Season, Babyeating-Sisterfuckers, Ike, News and Notes, Ranting, Reggie Bush shat himself, Teams that aren't the Texans
…aaaaaand, we’re back!
First things first, my thoughts go out to all you Tina Turners who got battered around by Ike over the weekend. We had some minor power outages and had a neighbor’s window awning slam into our house at 2:30AM Sunday, but that was it. I can’t imagine having to deal with hundreds of gallons of water in my house or anything like that. (Also, if you have a little extra cash lying around and want to help, here’s the Red Cross link. They were a huge help when we were digging out of the tornado.)
Second, the decision to postpone the Texans game altogether sucked from a football fan standpoint, but I really think it was the only thing that could be done, especially once the NFL realized that the rescheduling of the game was feasible. I know a couple people suggested the Dome or Rice Stadium, but putting the game at either spot would have been a stretch considering people were still dealing with the hurricane. Sure, the game probably could have been played at a different site (including the aforementioned as well as stadiums where games were not scheduled this past week), but I don’t think the NFL and the powers-that-be thought it should be played.
So what does this mean for Texans fans? Well, for one, it means that our first four three games are on the road and our first four games might be the hardest four game stretch any team will face this year. (Seriously…@ Pittsburgh, @ Nashvile, @ Jacksonville, and v. Colts??? Thanks, Jesus!) On the flip side, it also means that we’ll have four straight home games (three of which we should be favored in) starting October 5 (v. Colts, v. Lions, v. Dophins, v. Bengals). Therefore, I think you can make a pretty strong case that we have to win at least one of the three upcoming division games (preferably next week if I am allowed to choose)if we are going to make any noise this year. That would give us a good shot at being 5-3 0r 4-4 after the tough half of our schedule is over.
Still, even with the added fun of four straight home games, the Week 2 bye sucks my balls. And not in that tender, loving way I prefer. No sir, it’s a full-on Vince-Young-Gay-Porn-moneyshot nutsuckin’ and that is totally due to the bye week. A week two bye, simply put, blows. A week eight bye, even more simply, rules. The former, especially when it comes unsuspected like this, meaning you had a week of normal practices, does nothing to help you heal or prepare or regroup for the stretch run. The latter does all of these things (and, assuming it doesn’t sneak up on you, also allows for some time off to heal the dings and nicks of seven weeks of football).
Which brings me to my larger point, which is one I’ve harped on from time to time through this blog’s lifecycle. Namely that there is NO REASON WHATSOEVER TO HAVE BYE WEEKS. The bye week is a remnant of the days of 31 teams, when someone had to be off each week because there were not enough teams for everyone to play every week. Nowdays, some teams get “rewarded” with a week 8 or (sometimes) week 9 bye week, giving players that would normally miss the next game time to heal while other teams are stuck with the ol’ week 4 early byes. There is no rhyme or reason (that I can see) to the scheduling of byes, either, meaning that teams cannot predict from year to year when their next bye will fall. How does any of this make sense? (Answer: It doesn’t, Matt. Like always, you are right on.)
****
Other news and notes from around my Week 2 Experience.
NFLN quote as the Titans-Bengals highlights showed Kerry Collins and Chris Simms. “This is what’s left of Tropical Depression Vince.” A+, guys.
Keith Bulluck’s blocked punt/punt block TD was one of the best plays I’ve seen from an OLB in a loooong time. Very impressive. Damn it.
The St. Louis Rams and the Minnesota Vikings are apparently using the same playbook. Chapter 2 of that playbook is “Never, Ever Do Anything To Get Your Franchise RB The Ball In Space.” Both teams have abandoned the swing pass and are trying to subsist on slants, the occasional go route, and draws and traps. Oh, and the always fun, “RB chips the blitzer, then goes two yards and turns around for a worthless short pass.” Unfortunately, if you are St. Louis (or their fans), the Rams’ D is nowhere near good enough to keep them in games that Minnesota can stay in.
Speaking of Minnesota, Ryan Longwell, you are on notice for choking that last FG. That said, Minny’s refusal to go for the TD when down in the red zone was further proof of the idea that conventional football wisdom is often anything but wise.
Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall are a studs, but the real balls belong to Mike Shanahan. Not only did he have the sack to go for the win rather than the tie, but he used the EXACT same play as he’d just run to score the TD. Tecmo Bowl School of Game Management, cum laude.
Justin Tuck is fucking great.
Marc Bulger is not.
Tarvaris Jackson is getting lambasted for doing the exact same things that Vince Young has been doing for two years now.
Man, a smart fellow would have predicted this Jags decline and David Garrard’s struggles. Oh, wait…I did. Yay, me.
Man, a smart fellow would have predicted this Buffalo success. Oh, wait…I did. Yay, me again.
Darren McFadden is damn good, but he is not as good as Kansas City made him look. No one is. I am reasonably sure Tim could rush for 95 yards and a TD against the Chefs.
Reggie Bush = Still a Douchebag.
Not To Blow Anything Out Of Proportion, But…
Sep 11, 2008 Jeff Fisher's Mustache, Teams that aren't the Texans, Vinsanity
I am starting to doubt Fisher’s story about how Vince was not refusing to play and was only discussing a tight hammy.
Coach Jeff Fisher said when Young is healthy he’s going to have to show he’s made progress on all fronts before resuming his duties as the starter. And that could be a while.
“He has some work to do. Obviously he has some work to do,” Fisher said. “He has to put some things back in perspective, and first and foremost he has to get healthy.”
[***]
Young generated a lot of negative attention Sunday when he initially refused to go back into the game against Jacksonville. He suffered the knee injury a few plays later. The next day Fisher called the police to search for Young because the coach was worried about his quarterback, who was missing for several hours.
Link. (h/t Vega)
Why The Jacksonville Jaguars Will Not Make The Playoffs This Year
Sep 7, 2008 Curious Coaching, Teams that aren't the Texans
Everyone and their brother has the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Indianapolis Colts battling it out for the division crown in 2008, as if it is a foregone conclusion that both of them will definitely make the playoffs. Now, maybe the rest of this post is just wishful thinking on my part. I mean, it’s totally possible that I am just looking for a way to convince myself that we are closer to the rest of the division than we really are. But, at the same time, I just can’t shake the feeling that the Jacksonville Jaguars are going to take a big step backward this year. In fact, I can think of at least four reasons why they could/will slide:
1. The loss of Marcus Stroud. As someone who has been screaming about our own need for quality tackles since before Okoye was drafted, I don’t think I can overstate the impact that Marcus Stroud had on the Jaguars defense. In a nutshell, Jacksonville’s stingy defense was built around the notion that you absolutely could not run against them because of Stoud and John Henderson in the middle, so everyone in the place knew you were going to have to throw. They could then pin their collective ears back on the outside and get after QBs.
This two-pronged attack of impenetrable run defense and good pressure from the front four masked one glaring weakness that no one likes to talk about—the guys in the back seven are not that great. Oh, sure, Rashean Mathis is good (though he was inconsistent last year) and Reggie Nelson shows flashes of great talent, but Gerald Sensabaugh? He’s tough, but he’s a back-up at best. Brian Williams? Average corner, who can’t hang with top receivers, and who is likely to see more time at safety. Drayton Florence? He’s a cheap-shot-throwing cockgobbler, and while he arrives with a lot of hype, he ranked 66th among CBs in Success % and 72nd in Average Yards Allowed Per Pass.
In front of those guys, Mike Peterson is a force when he is healthy…which is about 6 games per year. Daryl Smith is a solid player, I suppose (though he did rank 60th in run stopping among LBs),but one gets the impression that his success in pass coverage (6th in Success %) is due to being asked to cover for a very short time. If there is no rush from the front four, he won’t be able to cover anyone because he’ll be drafted for one of Gregg Williams’ ridiculous blitzing schemes. (More on that in a bit.) Clint Ingram is…what’s the word…oh, yeah, mediocre. At best. Backup LB Justin Durant, who played Smith’s position when Peterson went down and Smith moved over, is talented and has very good speed, but is more suited for the outside LB role than the MLB position, leaving the team without a true MLB when Peterson eventually gets hurt.
Add to these question marks that pass defense was already a bit of a problem for the Jags last year and you can see how losing Stroud could be a huge deal.
Now, those who would tell you that the Jags will be fine without Stroud are banking on Rob Meier taking over Stroud’s Under Tackle position without missing (much of) a beat. After all, he did rank 1st among D-linemen in Stop % last year. They are, additionally, banking on either career pass-rush specialist Reggie Hayward becoming a real first- and second-down DE or one (or both) of the rookie DEs, Quentin Groves and Derrick Harvey, being dominant on third down (or more). Why is no one concerned about this? Meier has been a good back-up for years and he has strong, quick hands, but he does not have near the power that Stroud had at the point of contact and he is not even in the same league as Stroud when it comes to run defense. His high stop rate last year was no indicative of overall skill unless you really believe that a 30-year-old situational DT suddenly took a leap to be among the NFL elite. So, how much of a drop off will he be and, more importantly, how much of a drop off can the defense take?
Now, I am not saying that the defense is suddenly going to be devoid of talent. Paul Spicer is overrated, in large part because people say dumb things like he got 41 quarterback pressures last year, but he is still a good-to-very-good player. John Henderson is still a beast. And, like I mentioned throughout the above, there is talent at a number of positions. My only point is the loss of Stroud has the potential to big a much bigger problem than anyone is saying. First, if you can run on them with relative ease, they can no longer expect teams to be forced to throw on second and third downs, thus you slow down their pass rush AND you open up the play action. Second, if they aren’t getting a big push up front with their downlinemen, you immediate exacerbate the weaknesses in the secondary. (As to this second point, it is a lesson that Texans fans know all too well.)
2. David Garrard is not as good as he looked last year. I’m going to be blunt: there is no way in Hell that Garrard only throws three interceptions in 2008. His three picks in 325 attempts last year (.9% INT rate) was tied for the lowest since 1983. Steve DeBerg, the man with whom Garrard tied, went from 4 INTs in 1990 to 14 in 1991. In fact, according to Football Outsiders,
Since 1983, seven quarterbacks threw at least 325 attempts with an interception rate of 0.9 percent or lower, and also threw 325 passes for the same team the following year. In the second year, that rate went up to an average of 3.5 percent, higher than the average interception rate of 3.2 percent for all qualifying quarterbacks over that timeframe.
So, if you assume he will bump up to around 3.5%, that’s 11 or 12 INTs in 2008 if his number of attempts stays about the same. Does that make him worthless? Of course not. But it does make a difference. The Jags thrive on grind-it-out football, clock management, and the like. 11 or 12 INTs can have a huge impact on that kind of ball control offense. (And the 3.5% might be being generous, since he had a 3.7% rate in 241 attempts in 2006.)
An even bigger question, though, is David Garrard in general. Yes, he had a good year last year. But NFL history is littered with guys who had one good year. See, e.g., Mitchell, Scott and Johnson, Brad. Until Garrard shows that he is closer in talent to the guy who played in 2007 than the guy who played in 2006 (10 DYAR, -4.8% DVOA), Jags fans should remain cautiously optimistic and nothing more.
2a. Speaking of Garrard, who exactly is he going to throw to? If you really believe that head-case, never-been-a-number-one-guy, missing-the-whole-preseason-on-the-PUP-list, runs-lazy-routes-even-when-he’s-healthy Jerry Porter is going to transform the Jaguars’ passing attack, please raise your hand. Anyone? I didn’t think so. Troy Williamson? The guy has 79 career catches and the Vikings—a team that desperately needs WRs—let him go. Matt Jones? Dennis Northcutt? C’mon. The Jaguars’ WR situation makes the Texans’ RB situation seem settled and unproblematic.
3. Good bye Mike Smith; hello Gregg Williams. With 2007 D-coordinator Mike Smith gone to pilot the lead balloon in Atlanta, the Jaguars bring in former Redskins DC, Gregg Williams. Now, the optimist will look at the Skins’ D over the last few years and see that they were consistently in the top 10. That is true. But what that overlooks is:
- Williams’ system, for all its ridiculous blitzes, was fairly good in terms of sacks in 2004, before becoming below average in 2005, dead-last in 2006, and only slightly above average in 2007.
- The Redskins were average in INTs in 2004 and 2005, dead-last in 2006, and well below average last year.
- Williams scheme puts an insane amount of pressure on the secondary, especially the corners, and we’ve already discussed the problems the Jags’ secondary has.
- Williams has already shown a complete inability to effectively utilize talented safeties. (For proof, ask any Redskins fan to tell you about Williams’ insistence that Sean Taylor play 25 yards off the line just to prevent the team from giving up the deep ball…which they were doing BECAUSE of the pressure his “system” was putting on the corners.)
- Even worse (and I can’t find the link) Williams and his proponents are saying how Reggie Nelson is going to “be the Jags’ Bob Sanders.” Umm…what? Nelson is a 4-3 FS whose biggest talent is his coverage ability. (Remember, there was talk of him playing CB in the NFL coming out of college.) Sanders is a Cover-2 SS whose biggest asset is run support and whose coverage responsibilities are limited. On top of all this insanity, last year Nelson was abysmal in run support.
- Williams’ system gets credit for being aggressive, but unlike, say, Jim Johnson’s always-moving-forward approach, Williams’ is a ridid, no-freelancing-allowed, read-and-react sort of system. Just because it sends five and six rushers does not change the fact that, many times, the whole defense plays as if they are on their heels.
4. History. Very few teams in today’s NFL are able to win 10-12 games a year every year. Generally, there are a couple steps forward, then a slide back, later, rinse, repeat. Over the last five years, the Jags have gone 5-11, 9-7, 12-4, 8-8, and 11-5. Now, which seems more likely–another step forward, say to 12 or 13 wins, or a slide back to the 7-9 win range? Assuming the QB throws more INTs, the defense isn’t as good, and, hell, that 32-year-old Fred Taylor won’t get 200 carries this year, I think the latter is much more likely.
So, there ya have it. Like I said at the beginning, this whole thing might just be my way to make myself feel better about our upcoming season. Nevertheless, I stand by it. Jags < 10 wins.
Random Thought
Sep 4, 2008 I was told there would be no math, Random Thoughts with Matt, Teams that aren't the Texans, Vince Young can't read this post
(<–click that pic for bonus fun!)
There are a number of similarities between the Vikings and the BESFs (good running game, stout defense led by the front four, no WRs to speak of, mustachioed head coaches…). Yet, the common refrain when discussing the Vikings is “the running game is awesome, the defense is really good…if ONLY they had a QB, I’d pick them to go all the way!”
Well, consider:
T. Jackson—DYAR 105 (26th out of 41 QBs), DVOA -5.8% (28th/41), 9 TD, 12 INT
V. Young—-DYAR 74 (28th/41), DVOA -8.4 (31st/41), 9 TD, 17 INT
[Note: This will be the last dig based on last year's stats that I will probably get in on VY before the season starts. Thankfully, I have no concerns that he will supply me with more ammo as 2008 progresses.]
Kickoff — “It’s Still Raining Here And I Don’t Think It’s Stopping Anytime Soon” Edition
Sep 3, 2008 2008 Season, Fuck you Gustav, Ha ha... you like the Lions, Kickoff, Preview, Teams that aren't the Texans
Not-So-Hugene. I am linking to this via BRB, just so I don’t have to feel dirty for linking to Pancakes, but the message is the same: the release of Brandon Frye was, apparently, made to create room to sign Eugene Wilson (most recently of the Steelers and formerly of the No-Good Cheaterpantses). To further borrow from Tim, the idea of a CB corps of The Fred, The Project, Petey, and Petey Redux scares me shitless. So, while this isn’t exactly a shrewd move, it’s probably the smartest play available at this late date. (Also, this continues that trend we seemed to start late last year of picking up the most recently-released player from our next opponent.)
I still say we can win this game. The mothership has the scouting report on the Steelers. The good news for us? The Steelers line is still awful and their secondary (other than Polamalu) is suspect. The bad news? The have a lot of offensive weapons and Limas Sweed is probably having wet dreams about matching up with Faggins in the nickel. Damn. (h/t Eric)
Well, this pretty much guarantees he won’t play in Houston. Apparently—and, remember, this is coming from professional assbag, Mike Florio, so take it with a fucking hunk of salt—Tatum Bell attempted to steal Rudi Johnson’s bags while the latter was visiting with the team. If true, this is beyond hilarious. Johnson shows up, Bell realizes he’s being shown the door, so he grabs Rudi’s shit and tries to get a female friend to keep the stuff for him. Fantastic! (h/t stacy)
Finally. If the season is here, that can only mean one thing—Intertex is back with Texans YouTube videos. Up first, a look at our 2008 opponents.
2007 Predictions Revisited; 2008 Predictions Revealed
Sep 2, 2008 2008 Season, Colts Shmolts, Cooper Manning gently weeps, Predictions Guaranteed To Go Wrong, San Diego will miss the playoffs because Rivers is a do, Teams that aren't the Texans
If you’ve been paying attention, you’ve surely noticed that bfd and I have yet to do any predictions regarding the upcoming NFL season. The reason? Well, we are lazy. Beyond that, however, we also wanted to wait as long as possible to see how some stuff shook out in camps and whatnot.
Before I get into my prognosticatin’, however, I thought I would take a look back at my season-long predictions from last year, both good (my weekly picks) and bad (my preseason picks). Last things first, here were my NFL predictions for 2007:
Thursday night’s game was all well and good in that it was real football that mattered beginning to end. Football is back, yada yada yada. However, for all of us not living in Indianapolis (thankfully) or New Orleans, there is one day left until we kick off the season for real.
For fans of the Juggernaut, of course, tomorrow’s game against the Chiefs is full of storylines. Will Schaub keep making us forget about Zoolander? Is Ahman Green as much of an upgrade as we think? Are the Chiefs going to be worse than the Raiders this year? [Author's note: The answer to all of those questions is "yes."]
Now, I am on record as counting this game as one of our nine wins. I still believe that and, other than laughing about the Chiefs failures to win a playoff game since Bill Clinton’s first year in office, I have little to add.
I do think, however, that this is as good a place as any to throw out the official DGDB&D 2007 Predictions. Let’s rock. (# denotes first round bye, * denotes wild card)
AFC East
New England #
New York
Buffalo
MiamiAFC South
Indianapolis #
Jacksonville *
Houston (9-7)
TennesseeAFC West
San Diego
Denver
Oakland
Kansas CityAFC North
Baltimore
Pittsburgh*
Cincinnati
ClevelandNFC East
Philadelphia
Washington
Dallas
New YorkNFC South
Carolina #
New Orleans*
Atlanta
Tampa BayNFC West
Seattle #
St. Louis*
San Francisco
ArizonaNFC North
Chicago
Green Bay
Detroit
MinnesotaAFC Championship Game
San Diego def. New EnglandNFC Championship Game
Seattle def. CarolinaSuper Bowl
San Diego def. Seattle
Wow. Those are–what’s the word? BAD. Yeah, that’s it. Did I really have Chicago winning the North over Green Bay? Was I high or something? Christ.
NOW, when I was allowed to pick week-by-week, thereby incorporating what we knew about teams as the year went forward, I did much better. I went 156-91 in the regular season and 8-3 in the playoffs. I rocked shit. (Let this be fair warning to the rest of you taking part in Chris’s Pick’em League, bitches.)
With all that out of the way, let’s get into the 2008 season. Like last year, I am predicting order of finish, but not records, because I hate it when people predict overall records without checking to see if they are logistically possible based on the matchups.
Also, one last side note before I start. Another pet peeve of mine is writers and other experts who pick the same teams to win the divisions as last season and pick nearly all the same playoff teams. The former has never happened in the current setup and the historical rate of playoff team turnover is about 50%. So, off the bat, I’m tabbing Jacksonville, Tennessee, San Diego, Washington, Tampa Bay, and Green Bay as the teams from last year who won’t get in this year.
AFC North
Cleveland
Pittsburgh*
Baltimore
Cincinnati
AFC East
New England
Buffalo*
New York
Miami
AFC South
Indianapolis
Houston (9-7)
Jacksonville (Yes, I still have a post forthcoming explaining this. Damn you, stop pressuring me!)
Tennessee (6-10)
AFC West
Denver
San Diego
Kansas City
Oakland
NFC North
Minnesota
Detroit
Green Bay
Chicago
NFC East
Philadelphia
Dallas*
New York*
Washington
NFC South
New Orleans
Carolina
Tampa Bay
Atlanta (on the clock)
NFC West
Seattle
St. Louis
San Francisco
Arizona
AFC Championship Game
Indianapolis over Cleveland
NFC Championship Game
Philadelphia over Seattle
Super Bowl
Philadelphia over Indianapolis
So, there you have it. Now, if these are anything like last year’s, they’ll be moot by week 3.
Pop Quiz
Aug 27, 2008 Had to post something, Stats, Suck it bitchez, Teams that aren't the Texans
Compare and Contrast the following two teams’ first six seasons. Remember to show your work. Bonus points will be given for using the data contained in this table to refute and/or mock certain fans and national sportswriters.
| . | Yr 1 | Yr 2 | Yr 3 | Yr 4 | Yr 5 | Yr 6 | WP% |
| Team A | 0-11-1 | 4-9-1 | 5-8-1 | 4-10-0 | 5-8-1 | 7-7-0 | .329 |
| Team B | 4-12 | 5-11 | 7-9 | 2-14 | 6-10 | 8-8 | .333 |
A quick question for any Jags fan that might stumble through here.
Aug 25, 2008 Teams that aren't the Texans, Tony Boselli is dead
Do you really have to listen to Tony Boselli for 16 games/year? Because I recorded a Jags game the other day and, upon watching it, wanted to light my eardrums on fire.
Urge to kill…rising.
Aug 19, 2008 Anger, Babyeating-Sisterfuckers, Bud Adams is evil, Demarcus Faggins sucks, Fuck, His name is Earl, Logo by Chris, Righteous Indignation, Teams that aren't the Texans
In a move that is likely to make stacy’s head explode, BE-SF fans voted Earl Campbell their greatest player ever.
Now, say what you will about how they kept the Oilers name/records/etc. Once you CHANGE NAMES in a NEW STATE, all bets are off as far as holding on to the past. You can keep the Oilers as part of your franchise timeline, but you CANNOT lump Earl in as the greatest Titan ever…BECAUSE HE WAS NEVER A TITAN. To claim otherwise makes you an absolute fuckrag. No one likes a fuckrag, man.
To those who will say “but it was for the greatest Oiler/Titan ever,” I call bullshit. The team (or, more accurately, it’s sodomite owner) wanted out of Houston. Fine. And, honestly, had they remained the Oilers this whole time, even the choosing of Earl Campbell would be justified, if slightly dirty. But they didn’t. They shitcanned the city of Houston, then punted the team name a short time later—basically, they started fresh without having to waste years as an expansion team. And, in doing so, they offended 95% of the Oilers fanbase.
Was Earl Campbell the greatest Oiler ever? Of course. Was he the greatest player ever owned by Bud Adams? Of course. Did he have a single goddamned thing to do with the state of Tennessee or the Titans? Nope. And I bet he’s happy about that.
Besides, to hear some of you BE-SF fans tell it, shouldn’t Vince Young have won this vote hands down?
Your “Vince Young, Intangibly Great QB” moment of hilarity
Aug 15, 2008 Intangibly Great, Logo by Chris, Preseason 2008, Stats, Teams that aren't the Texans, Vince Young can't read this post
Oh, yes…it’s back for another year.
vs. Oakland: 4-13, 37 yards. 0 TD. 0 INT. Sacked once.
But at least he rushed for four yards!
Chris Palmer, unfiltered
Aug 15, 2008 Anger, Rendhel and Sid, Teams that aren't the Texans, Zoolander's snazzy handwear
Just for fun, some quotes about Zoolander from Giants camp. (h/t Rendhel)
QB coach Chris Palmer had a few interesting thoughts on QB David Carr today:
*On his happy feet: “He’s a talented young man, he’s very athletic, he runs very well, he has a strong arm. But he’s just got to settle down in the pocket.”
Translation: He looks like a QB, but he’s dancing around and getting all skittish even in camp, where he should know he can’t get hit. The fuck is wrong with this dude? Christ, why me? I thought I’d escaped this sonofafuck already. Why does God hate me? Why?!?
*On his mind: “Like a lot of young guys, they lose their confidence and how fast can you come back from that? I think he’s starting to have a little success, he’s starting to understand what Tom wants from the quarterback position. If we can keep him in rhythm, keep him balances and not in a hurry to flush from the pocket, he’ll be fine.”
Translation: He’s one of those weak-willed douchebags we used to kick the shit out of in high school. At least he didn’t curl up and die like a botched D-and-C today; that’s success, right? Maybe we can get him to do a regular five-step drop tomorrow and, if I am really lucky, he’ll actually stand in and deliver a throw instead of running away, screaming. Yep…that’d be awesome. At least that’s what I will tell myself as I lie awake in bed tonight. Why did we cut Jared Lorenzen again? [weeps]
*On his low arm angle, which has been an issue since he was drafted: “It’s a little bit lower than it was (when Palmer was the Texans’ offensive coordinator). We talk about that all the time. He’s got a very quick release, he’s got a strong arm. He’s getting in a stage in his life when he’s going to start hurting his elbow or start hurting his shoulder if he doesn’t become more mechanically sound. But he’s got pretty good whip as far as throwing the ball. He’s got such a strong arm, he has so much torque in his body that he gets it out there, but at some point that torque is going to tighten up on him and he’s going to have trouble with his shoulder and his elbow.”
Translation: Wait…what the fuck?!? This guy couldn’t quarterback a pop warner team and you are asking me about his goddamned arm angle?!? Jesus Christ, that’s like standing at Auschwitz and asking about Hitler’s mustache. There are much bigger problems than his fucking motion. [contemplates suicide]
*On why he started dropping his arm: “Because you get away from your mechanics. If you’re a golfer, why do you hit a ball on the driving range and then go out on the course and it doesn’t do the same thing? You just have to continue to work on it, you have to put things in front of him and make him throw over. You can do those things to get him back in stride.”
Translation: I am this close to killing everyone in this room. I shit you not. I will murder each and every one of you. “Dropping arm.” The fucking nerve you have. I AM AN NFL COACH; I SHOULD NOT HAVE TO DEAL WITH THIS!!!
