DGDB&D: a Texans blog.

In response to the article quoted in this post, I emailed KC Joyner and asked for a little more explanation of the methodology.  He was kind enough to reply.

Try this on for an expansion:

In Scientific Football 2008 and my 2008 Draft Guide (both of which can be ordered at www.TheFootballScientist.com) I rated matchups by color ranking, with red being difficult, yellow being average and green being favorable. Against red matchup WRs in 2007 (those that gained 9.0 YPA or higher), Bennett allowed only 6.8 YPA.  That’s very good (29th best out of 95 qualifiers) but it pales in comparison to how Bennett handled yellow rated (7-9 YPA) and green rated (less than 7 YPA) WRs.  His 3.3 versus yellow rated was the 2nd best in the league and his 3.0 against green rated was tied for 19th.  Add them all up and his overall YPA against WRs was 2nd best in the league.  I’ve been touting him as a future Pro Bowl candidate for how well he played last year.

So, hopefully, that clears it up a bit more.  Bennett was good against top-notch receivers, very good against mediocre guys, and downright dominant against the guys in-between.  The good news being, of course, that if you assume talent is distributed on a bell curve, Bennett (and all corners) are going to face a lot more “yellow” receivers than “red” or “green” ones.

Now, I know this seems foreign to us as Texans fans, but IF Molden really is ahead of where Bennett was this time last year (as sources seem to be saying) AND IF Ray Rhodes really saw enough talent in Jacques Reeves that the organization thought Reeves was worth that price tag AND IF Dunta comes back at even 90% of where he was…well, kids, we might just be in the enviable situation of having too many very good (or better) CBs.  (And, as a bonus, we can finally give Petey his walking papers.)  Even better, with only one or two of those IFs coming to fruition, we are finally set at CB.

This is all foreign and slightly frightening.  Hold me.

Finally, football is almost here!: Eric reminded Matt and I that the list of dates for open training camp is up and at the Texans’ website.  July 26 is just 48 days away! (math h/t VY)

Fluffy analysis: Eh, Pete Prisco doesn’t make me overly nauseous, and here’s his take on the Ephraim Salaam/Duane Brown battle.  I’ve never been one to downplay the role of rookies, but let’s see how Brown actually performs in training camp and the pre-season before anointing him the starter.  I would love to see him start on Opening Day, but if it means sacrificing a procession of QBs - Teh Schaub, Rosy Rosenfels, Alex Brink, Brett Favre, Dan Pastorini, Commander Cody Carlson, and a surprisingly spry George Blanda - then not so much.

Speaking of fluffy analysis and unnecssary foresight: It’s really not a secret that I think Brooke Bentley has quickly become the best “beat reporter” for the Texans (really, the only difference between her and the Comicle is that 1. we *know* she is paid by the Texans, and 2. the whole grammar, style, intelligence thing).  But this new series previewing 2008 matchups?  I dunno.

The latest is a preview against our favoritist rivals, those cute and bubbly Babyeating-Sisterfuckers.  The game is over two months away.  Let’s, you know, wait til we get closer to the season until we actually start writing Week 3 previews.  It’s not like we’re printing a magazine here. (h/t Eric)

Be-Sf analysis?: This is the right way to start.

Finally: Well, just because.

(Oops, wanted to add this: Trent Dilfer retired.  The last of the great Fresno State QBs?)

One of the odder things about me,¹ especially to people who have only known me for a relatively short time, is that I spent nearly two years working in a daycare. Even more strange, however, is that I still count that one as my favorite job I’ve ever had. During the school year, I would drive the (short) bus and take the school-age kids to their respective elementary schools, then spend the rest of the day in the three-year-old room, quietly crafting my unholy toddler army. But that is a story for a different day.

During the summer, however, I abandoned my post as three-year-old assistant teacher and was full-time in the school-age room. For the most part, I was responsible for driving us on field trips, delivering some kids to the community swimming program, and making sure no one got killed (which is harder than it sounds when you are the one wanting some of them to die). I also spent a great deal of time dominating nine-year-olds at basketball (on an 8-foot goal!) and wiffle ball. Those were the salad days.

Part of our summer program included something called Outdoor Teaching Activities, which we predictably shortened to OTAs. Ostensibly a way to teach the kids about science and nature, these were really nothing more than having them measure wind speed with bubbles or guess how many helium balloons it would take to lift object X five feet off the ground. Maybe they learned something, maybe they didn’t, but it got them outside and kept us (the teachers) sane. Plus, there is nothing more entertaining than watching a kid who throws like Lamar when he is on flat ground try to throw while standing on a balance beam. High comedy there.

ANYWAY, the point is that, to this day, when I hear “OTAs,” even in a Texans context, my mind does not go to 7-on-7 football and cone drills. Instead, I immediately picture Charles Spencer lighting leaves on fire with a magnifying glass and Zac Diles standing on top of a jungle gym with a bubble wand. I am nothing if not strange.

My own mental issues aside, however, OTAs continue in Texanland, entirely devoid of four-leaf clover searches and sidewalk chalk. And, as a blogger, I suppose I should get off my lazy ass² and mention them. First up, some choice quotes (and my less-than-choice reactions) from that font of wisdom and geyser of information, Gary Kubiak.

(on the possibility of a healthy QB Matt Schaub, RB Ahman Green and WR Andre Johnson) “Well, it means a great deal. Y’all saw how we played offensively when Ahman was available because he just brings a new dimension, and I think what we’re doing running the ball with Alex (Gibbs), I think Ahman’s really a nice fit with that and I think he’s gaining confidence in what we’re doing. The health of the football team’s important across the board, not just those three, but those three are pretty darn important.”

Not gonna lie to you, Gar…this isn’t exactly what I was hoping to hear. My hope was that you would say “Ahman? Ahman who? Oh, you mean that guy we are going to cut June 1? Yeah, F him.” In retrospect, I was probably hoping for too much, both from him last year and from you in this quote, but still.

Seriously, though, (1) I don’t see Green staying healthy and (2) I REALLY don’t see him thriving in the new system. His field vision is good enough, but methinks there are too many miles on those old legs to really get the explosive cuts that make the system effective.

Kubiak again:

(on the role of DE Anthony Weaver) “I think it could actually pick up for him because he’s healthy. He’s going through the offseason and he’s feeling as good as he’s ever felt. You always have to rotate D-linemen. I think maybe we’ll get a little more out of Anthony than last year just because we’re getting a good offseason out of him.”

Phew, that’s good. I was worried that we’d get less out him than last year. What’s that? There’s nothing less than zero? Oh…yeah…I suppose you are right.

Yes, yes, I know he was coming off a shoulder injury, so I will cut him a little slack. But when you are the highest paid player on the team, you only get so much slack. I really hope he does contribute like I thought he would when we signed him, because that would give us a monster D-line. I’m just not going to hold my breath here and I won’t be surprised one bit if BFD’s prediction of Chaun Thompson as a situational DE limits Weaver’s impact.

Other news and notes from the first three days of OTAs:

• **Unlike last year, the Texans website is no longer pluralizing OTA as OTA’s. This makes me exceedingly happy. And, because I wrote this last year, I am going to take credit for the change. Viva me!
• **DGDB&D whipping boy Petey Faggins is back and he’s mad! OK, not “mad,” really. More like, “hoping to still be on the team come opening day.” Says the seventh-year pro, “I just remembered all the good things that happened and got my confidence back up.” No offense, Pete, but I searched my memory long and hard for good things that happened to you and all I could come up with was you losing your starting job after the Chargers game.
• **I have a theory. If you face this everyday in practice, Kyle Vanden Bosch starts to look as intimidating as a midget driving a VW Beetle:

• **Finally, and as BFD mentioned, Andre Johnson is still on the shelf following minor knee surgery. It sounds crazy, but the health of that knee is likely the difference between 7-9 and 10-6. He is THAT important to the offense, as we saw over and over again last year. Here’s hoping he’s 100% come September.

¹ Which, if you know me, is really saying something.
² Figuratively, of course. Because who would type standing up?

Day 1 of minicamp is in the books. Which means that day one of the Alex Gibbs era, the return of Barbaro, the likely immolation of Jacques Reeves, and a whole host of other stuff. Mmm…tastes like chicken, err, football.

Anyway, most of the quotes coming out after today’s workouts were what you’d expect. The rookies were wide-eyed and thrilled to be there; the team looks good, but has to shake off some rust; everyone’s goal for minicamp is just to improve and get comfortable with the new pieces and plans; blah blah blah.

One thing jumped out, however–that BFD’s fear seems likely to come to fruition. At least if take Kubes at his word.

(on how T Duane Brown looked) “Well, I’ll have to go back and see but, you know, we’ve got to see how far we can bring this kid in the next month and so we put him right in there with the first group today. And I know it was very tough on Ephraim (Salaam), and y’all know I have a great deal of respect for Ephraim and I can understand why it was tough, but as I explained to him, I’ve got to see how far I can bring this young man. But I know Ephraim’s going to do his job and I’m expecting good things from him, but we felt like we had to put this kid to work right away.

(on if T Duane Brown is first on the depth chart) “Yes, he’ll be working with the first group, and that’s the only way we’re going to find out if this kid’s going to get to where we want him to go and how quick he can get there. You draft these kids in the first round to come in and play and that’s nothing against Ephraim (Salaam), as I said, and we’ve had this conversation. But I understand the difficulty in that, but we as coaches feel like we have to put this kid to work right away.”

Hmm…what to make of this? I’d say (a) Gibbs wants his guy to play and he wants it NOW, (b) Kubiak realizes that the better half of Black Salaami isn’t all that good, and (c) Duane Brown really is the archetype ZBS LT that we need. Plus, there is probably a little (d) “tell the fanbase the kid is a bona fide #1 just to keep the natives from becoming restless” in there as well. Lord knows no one wants restless Houstonians running around.

At this point, I am inclined to believe that Brown will be the opening day starter at LT. Now, I understand the fears of him being eaten alive by the various monster RDEs in the AFC South, but there are two things that make me think he’ll be okay if he is the starter from dia una (takes large swig of the Kool-Aid):

First, I am just telling myself (over and over and over) that, Gibbs’ pet or not, he will not be the starter until he can really be the starter. By which I mean, trial-by-fire only goes so far, especially when you are talking about the guy who is protecting the blindside of your franchise QB’s surgically repaired shoulder. So he is only going to get this LT gig if he can really do it. Will he struggle against KVB, et al? Possibly. But the question is not can he stop KVB on every single down; the question is can he stop KVB (or whomever) more consistently than Salaam can? If the answer is yes, then by all means, throw him in there and let him show me that I was wrong when I broke the TV remote after his selection.

Second, though, I am taking some comfort in this little snippet from BRB:

In his first game at right tackle he faced none other than Mario Williams. At his post-draft press conference, Duane was asked to comment about his encounter with Williams.

“I remember that night like it was yesterday. I was two weeks into the position; it was the opener and a night game at NC State. (Mario Williams) is a very intimidating figure. I held my own that night and it was the beginning of my transition. Being able to go against him in practice, he is one of the best defensive ends in the league. I think practicing against him will be great for me and will help me.”

He started at right tackle for two full seasons before moving over to left tackle in his senior year. In those three years, Brown racked up 42 consecutive starts.

In his senior season, Brown boasted an outstanding 89% blocking consistency average. By comparison, the overall first pick in the 2008 NFL draft, Jake Long, had an 88% blocking consistency rating in his final year at Michigan.

As we all remember, Mario was a bad motor scooter in college. If Brown really did hold his own against Super Mario in his first ever game as a tackle, then he has some serious natural-born talent hidden away in there. And, for all the effort he gave us last year, that is something that Ephraim Salaam just doesn’t really possess.

Of course, if I am wrong to optimistic now (and, conversely, right to have been pissed on Draft Day), I reserve the right to give him a horrible nickname and point out again and again that we already had a ZBS LT on the roster in Eric Winston. I’m a fickle mofo like that.